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Huckabee Voters: Will They Show?

By Perry Bacon Jr.
Will Mike Huckabee have a problem even among his base, the faithful, in South Carolina?

Exit polls show some differences in the Republican primary electorate since Iowa, where political experts had predicted about 40 percent of caucusgoers would be evangelical or born-again Christians, that suggest he will not be able to be as reliant on faith voters in the states ahead.

In Iowa, born-again and evangelical Christians turned out in higher-than-expected numbers; more than 60 percent of caucusgoers in Iowa placed themselves in one of those categories, according to entrance polling, and almost half of them caucused for him.

But in New Hampshire, only about one-fifth of GOP primary voters were evangelical Christians, about the same number as in 2000. And in Michigan, more than one-third of voters were evangelicals -- also what pollsters had expected entering the contest.

Huckabee's aides attribute the difference to the months they spent organizing home-school families, pastors and other groups in Iowa to create a strong turnout operation -- one that they haven't been able to replicate in other states, thanks to the compressed calendar.

Beyond turnout, the exit and entrance polls suggest another problem for Huckabee. In Iowa, Huckabee took 46 percent of the evangelicals who turned out, compared to 19 percent for Romney. But in New Hampshire, Romney, Huckabee and McCain tied among evangelicals, all collecting a bit less than 30 percent. In Michigan, exit polls showed Romney with 34 percent of support of the evangelicals there, compared to 29 percent for Huckabee.

South Carolina, where the Pew Research Center estimates more than half of the voters in the GOP primary will be white evangelical Christians, is a key state for Huckabee and will be a major test of his appeal. Huckabee has sought to build the kind of organization in South Carolina he had in Iowa, as much of his staff including his campaign manager are in the state, but they have had a much shorter time to organize than they had in Iowa.

A higher-than-average turnout among conservative Christians could still help the former governor -- if they choose to vote for him.

By Web Politics Editor  |  January 16, 2008; 6:20 PM ET
 
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Comments

How what do the Republicans stand for???
Less government? Well in the 7 years of BUSH the deficit has risen every year.
Tolerance not a chance unless you want to believe in the a fundamentalist view of the world. Which is as bad as the nazimuslims they are so happy to chant about.
The war which by anyones estimation including John McCain was a colossal mistake. Yes I do believe that more troops might have been the answer 4 years ago sorry much to late.
Left Afganistan to become Tailban Territory again.
When the recession comes and it is already here for 1/2 the American people. You think the Republicans are going to help sorry Bubba vote the Nascar way.
Obama and Clinton are giving positive messages for everyone not the select few.
Now does liberalism really hurt look at poor Canada.
Universal health care, seniors meds paid for, top three in world education,lowest deficit to GDP of G8. Low crime rate but no capital punishment but gun controls. Yes and those gays that married are ravishing society in the Great White North.

VOTE VOTE VOTE REPUBLICAN

Posted by: cam_zymac | January 18, 2008 2:54 AM | Report abuse

Mike Huckabee is America's candidate. The msm has gone out of it's pointy headed way to pigeonhole the governor as a (gasp) religious candidate, the kiss of death from the atheist left.
Sorry fellows but there are a lot of people who like Mike from all different sociological and political groupings and when the dust clears on February 5th, he will be on top of the hill. Then in November, he will top Hill. Go Mike!

Posted by: adirondackal | January 17, 2008 9:28 PM | Report abuse

beccago.....What if your neighbor includes a gay couple? Talk about hypocrites!! Stop with the holier-than-thou attitude, and by the way my best neighbors who keep their home clean,and are kind to their neighbors and helpful in every other way to the elderly people here. Actions speak louder than words.

Posted by: silverlucie | January 17, 2008 3:37 PM | Report abuse

Huckabuckabuckabee!

Posted by: sawargos | January 17, 2008 2:34 PM | Report abuse

I'm not sure where your second post went -- to answer your one pending question, I'm referring to REAL murder of "born" humans whom some sociopaths would similarly dismiss our prohibition as just a matter of "personal belief" -- while I agree that the Constitution is not a religious document, outlawing abortion has a valid secular purpose as well. There would be nothing un-Constitutional about adding the Human Life Amendment, nor would that make the Constitution a religious document.

Posted by: JakeD | January 17, 2008 1:27 PM | Report abuse

JakeD:
What is REAL murder? I don't understand. Most of our laws reflect the ten commandments of the Bible in that the laws reflect respect for the other person. Neither the Republican nor the Democratic platform is a part of our Constitution, nor should they be. Our Constitution is not and should not be a religious document.

Posted by: beccajo | January 17, 2008 12:57 PM | Report abuse

Where is my second comment...my answer to
JakeD?

Posted by: beccajo | January 17, 2008 12:39 PM | Report abuse

"that that" = "think that"

(darn spellchecker)

Posted by: JakeD | January 17, 2008 11:44 AM | Report abuse

beccajo:

REAL murder is prohibited in the Bible too, so do you that that means we can't have laws against that too? Huckabee explained his LIMITED call to amend the Constitution last night on Hannity & Colmes:

"[The] Human Life Amendment, which I support and which has been in the Republican platform since 1980 . . . and the second thing is traditional marriage. So those are the two areas in which I'm talking about. I'm not suggesting that we re-write the Constitution to reflect tithing or Sunday school attendance. I want to make that very clear."

Posted by: JakeD | January 17, 2008 11:39 AM | Report abuse

Two new polls of South Carolina have McCain ahead by a significant margin with Huckabee not that solid a second -- clearly he has not been able to solidify his base, and Thompson's rise is hurting him. Link to polls:

http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/south-carolina-mccain-is-ahead-and-is.html

Posted by: campaigndiaries | January 17, 2008 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Huckabee is dangereous, as would be anyone else who goes around spouting this hypocritical stuff. The New Testament was given to us to teach and convert individuals, not to win elections and cause trouble in our government. The Bible is our guide to salvation...the Constitution is our guide to government.
I am a Christian. I am against abortion, I am against same-sex marriage. I believe in the golden rule and loving my neighbor. These are personal beliefs. I am not to go about trying to legislate belief in these tenets on other people. Why can't people understand that the Constitution in this country is for citizens of whatever belief, or no belief at all? This country has a legal system that punishes law-breakers, but we cannot legislate morality, or force Christianity on people who choose not to accept it. God gave man free will, and many choose to go their way without accepting religion of any kind. They can still be moral, fair and good citizens. Freedom of religion means freedom FROM religion also.

Posted by: beccajo | January 17, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

Bukkonen:

All (including hard-core Xian rightists) have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God -- Romans 3:23 -- BTW: where in the Bible does it say: "the sun rotate around the Earth"?

Posted by: JakeD | January 16, 2008 11:42 PM | Report abuse

Oh ye of little faith... And little ability to influence anything in America, because they're as apathetic about voting as the Amish. (No offense meant to the Amish, who are not nearly as toxic to civil society as the Christian dominionists who follow Huck-and-jive.)

Actually, it's ye of little intelligence, at least when it comes to intelligence about the modern world. Just how old IS this modern world, Shuckabee faithful? Do I hear 6,000 years? It should be mandatory to ask Huckster a question based on Biblical fallacy at every Q&A session. Gov. Huckleberry, does the sun rotate around the Earth? Sez so in the Bible! Gov. Huckabee, are we allowed to make slaves of Mexicans and Canadians? Sez in the Bible that we can enslave our neighbors.." And so on.

Actully, I'm glad the hard-core Xian rightists are such slackers when it comes to doing anything that involves civic participation like voting. If they didn't wuss out, they might be dangerous, to the extent that their 15% of the population lets them be. Hey Xians -- just stay home! If you go to the polls, you might be exposed to the cooties of us sinners!

Posted by: Bukkonen | January 16, 2008 10:51 PM | Report abuse

Republican Nevada Caucus - Prediction Time!

The road to the White House now goes through Nevada because Saturday's statewide caucuses will help to clarify presidential nomination races in both major parties.

Who do you predict will win the Republican Nevada Presidential Caucus?

http://www.youpolls.com/details.asp?pid=1552

.

Posted by: jeffboste | January 16, 2008 6:32 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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