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McCain Pollsters Trash Public Surveys

By Michael D. Shear
Sen. John McCain is fighting the perception that he is quickly falling far behind Democratic Sen. Barack Obama as polls show a widening gap between the two nominees.

The Los Angeles Times released a survey this morning showing McCain trailing Obama by a 15-point margin, the same chasm that a recent Newsweek poll showed. Other polls have shown a more narrow, single-digit lead for Obama, and Gallup's daily tracking poll shows the two candidates tied.

Nonetheless, in a memo to the public from his pollsters, McCain trashed the LA Times poll and practically pleaded for people to take the myriad surveys with a large grain of salt.

"It is important that both the campaign, as well as reporters covering the campaign, not over-react to every single survey that is released," said the memo from Bill McInturff, Liz Harrington and David Kanevsky at Public Opinion Strategies.

The memo blasts the LA Times survey, saying that its underlying data shows that it is skewed toward an outcome favorable to Obama. They point to the fact that the survey reported that its respondents were 22 percent Republican, 39 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent, with another 12 percent unaccounted for.

"Having double digits don't know or refused on party ID is a quite unusual finding," they argue. "Furthermore, since the LA Times does not release other demographics like age and ethnicity, it becomes very difficult for an independent observer to verify whether a survey is methodologically flawed or simply an outlier in public opinion trends."

They further argue that the LA Times poll, the Newsweek survey and other polls are "getting heavy coverage in the press, even though they clearly showed unusual results on party identification, as well as other demographics like age, in the case of the Newsweek survey."

The pushback could be critical for McCain, who can't afford to be seen as a distant challenger, which would make fundraising more difficult and could establish a narrative among the press corps and the pundits that becomes difficult to change.

Of course, McCain previously has proven himself to be more aggressive, more nimble and more energized when he's running as a long shot.

Posted at 2:55 PM ET on Jun 25, 2008  | Category:  John McCain
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Vote for McCain! That will help Exxon take more of our money, which will eventually help us as proved by the trickle down theory. Got it? McCain = Exxon more money = better life for us. It's that simple!

Posted by: Don for McCain | June 27, 2008 12:00 AM

Hey, fellas, don't look at these new-fangled pollie thingamajigs! Come on, get on the bus and sit down in a club chair and share a beer, my friends. Umm, reporters, you are still my friends aren't you? Look these polls that have me down by 15 points are bad, verrry bad! Now, if they had ME up by 15 points they'd be good, very good but no need to look behind the curtain -- I am OZ, the great and magnificent... oh, sorry. Wrong fear-mongering speech. Um, just remember if it's bad for me it's bad for you and bad is bad! OK?? Now get back on the bus!

Posted by: straight talk my a** | June 26, 2008 3:22 AM

"They (McCain aides) point to the fact that the survey reported that its respondents were 22% Republican, 39% Democratic and 27% independent, with another 12% unaccounted for."

That's not evidence that the survey population was skewed. It's evidence of a massive flight from the GOP.

On Super Tuesday, 8.3 million people voted in Republican primaries, and 14.6 million people voted in Democratic primaries.

Dem participation rose by as much as 100% from last time in some states. GOP participation actually fell in many states.

Nobody wants to be a Republican anymore because they're tired of being associated with stupidity, corruption, and failure.

Posted by: Bourassa | June 25, 2008 11:37 PM

McCain is fading fast. Obama's supposed weakness in Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania has already disappeared, he's opened up growing leads in all three.

Take a look at pollster.com (http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php) which tracks all major polls in all states and plots trends over time. McCain is pointing downwards in every swing state. Not just Penn, Mich, and Ohio, but Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Colorado, Missouri, and the new swing state Alaska.

McCain's one big hope for a GOP pickup, New Hampshire, has evaporated, with a ten-point collapse in June leaving Obama ahead by double digits.

The last two polls even show Obama leading in INDIANA, for Chrissakes.

It seems just the other day, Republicans were gloating "where's Obama's post-primary bump?"
Well here it is.

According to Gallup, whose figures are the nicest to McCain, the number of people self-identifying as Democrats or Dem-leaning in January was 11% greater than the number of GOP or GOP-leaning.
Today, it's 14% greater.

And most voters don't even know about all McCain's skeletons in the closet yet.

Oh yeah, plus Obama's going to have about five times as much money.

The GOP should be buried deep. Because you can't be too careful with toxic waste.

Posted by: Bourassa | June 25, 2008 11:26 PM

I don't know about the Newsweek poll but the L.A. poll is bogus. Bloomburg is a billionaire Obama backer. It wouldn't surprise me if Newsweek is an Obama backer too. Money talks. We all need to wake up and realize the media is either owned or lazy and maybe both. The polls are used by those who have money and influence to sway public opinion. We need to quit yapping at each other and do some fact checking ourselves.

Posted by: warf33 | June 25, 2008 7:04 PM

AnnMarie

I agree with you that both candidates have changed their stance on some issues but I disagree that McBush has done it less frequently. And I am not referring to issues where a "steady stance no longer makes sense as economic and foreign situations change" Im talking about when he says that Iraq is going so well that he and Gen. Petraeus walk around baghdad with no armor and in an un-armored car, and then we hear the General say that this is absurd and an impossibility. Im talking about when McCain says he feels America is far better off now than we were 8 years ago and then within a few days says that we are definitely not better off and has no explanation on why he made the previous comment days earlier. Or his stance on teh confederate flag which changed within 8 minutes. These are issues that a distinguished, experienced senator should be able to smack out of the park, but to me the guy with no experience seems to have far better judgment. In my opinion all of the experience in the world doesnt make up for bad judgment.

Posted by: otonomus maximus | June 25, 2008 6:51 PM

I don't agree with a lot of the things Bush has done but I do disagree with the assertion Bush earned the worst president ever on his own. I would assert that the media definitely helped him with that.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 6:37 PM

Actionmacv...fair enough...and well-said.

And if you served in Vietnam, let me also personally thank you for your service to our country.

Posted by: wilder5121 | June 25, 2008 6:23 PM

Wilder5121, I agree with everything you say and I do strongly believe GW earned his rating. Point I was trying to make is that I do not need a poll to tell me this just as I do not need a poll to assist my decision making process on who I vote for. I left the demcoratic party in 1979 and have been what Florida calls "NPA", NO PARTY AFFLIATION, since because I was sick and tired of BS of party lines and petty politics. I learned in Nam not go go blindly through the jungle and believe one should do the same when deciding who to vote for. Personnally I feel polls are just one more way to cloud one's thought process.

Posted by: Actionmacv | June 25, 2008 6:18 PM

And the McCain minions continue their mindless march on an internet they don't understand. Parroting the same talking points over and over might work in mainstream media monopolies like Fox News, but it won't work on the internet. It lacks the mindless captive audience of Fox News.

Is anyone else sick and tired of hearing about how Barack Obama has no experience? Truth is, it's quite amazing what he has accomplished already. He's made significant improvements in ethics reform, transparency in government, lobbyist reform, campaign finance reform, protection from nuclear weapons, health care, foreign affairs, supporting veterans, homeland security -- the list goes on and on. For more about Obama's accomplishments, check out: tinyurl.com/35lcyh

McCain's minions also want us to believe that Barack Obama does not have a plan. Fact is that his plans are very well defined. Better yet, Obama's plans demonstrate much better judgement. Obama's plans are designed to help all Americans. McCain's plans are tailored for the rich and powerful and to unfairly bring in greater profits for large corporations. For more info on Obama's plans visit: www.barackobama.com/issues

How stupid does the McCain campaign think we are? 8 years under George W. Bush's policies is enough!

Posted by: Ed Lynch | June 25, 2008 6:12 PM

Actionmacv...you say: "...the only people in this country who have an approval rating worse than GW is our House of Congress."

Now, I'm not sure what "our House of Congress" is...but I'm guessing you mean CONGRESS.

So let me educate you. Congress has ALWAYS had miserable poll numbers...because everybody always hates every other member of the House and Senate...but not THEIR member of the House or Senate. So almost every American...in every poll ever taken...HATES Congress (but not THEIR guy).

That's why they always poll so miserably...whether Democrats or Republicans are in power...doesn't matter.

But with Bush Junior...it's different. There is no "others". He has the worst rating of any president in history because HE ALONE has earned it. Fair and square. Beyond any doubt whatsoever.

He's done a heckuva job...and worked hard to achieve the title of "Worst President Ever".

Don't diminish his achievement.

Posted by: wilder5121 | June 25, 2008 5:55 PM

For all you believers in polls remember this! According to recent polls the only people in this country who have an approval rating worse than GW is our House of Congress.

Posted by: Actionmacv | June 25, 2008 5:43 PM

New Gallup poll has it tied 45-45. Why no media attention on that poll. The poll shows McCain was ahead of Obama the last two days. McCain could have been ahead by as much as 5 percent. New SUSA poll has McCain up 50-43 over Obama. Obama polled much better against Clinton than during election results. Remember New Hampshire. Up by 15 and lost by 2. Tied in Ohio and lost by 9. He also polled better in exit polls than when the results came in.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 5:35 PM

If there is no bias in the media how come the media ignored the things about Obama; facts of which were readily available. Then once it was too late to have an effect on the democratic candidate they brought up the issues and turned it into a media circus for ratings?

How many primaries did Obama win once the supressed truth came out? I don't think it is too far fetched to sense an agenda.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 5:24 PM

The LA Times poll is only the tip of the icberg. Over the past 24 hours Obama has also led big in Michigan and posted a small lead in... INDIANA! Full roundup of these great polls for Democrats: http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/24/tuesday-polls-stunning-toss-up-in-indiana-as-obama-leads-in-mi-and-cos-udall-continues-to-inch-ahead-updated-with-new-la-times-poll/

Posted by: Dan | June 25, 2008 5:21 PM

@ HemiHead

"sortirdunucleaire" is part of the anti-nuclear lobby, they are completely irrelevant while ideologically driven, I would consider any content or figure from them with this in mind.

Posted by: Me | June 25, 2008 5:21 PM

In my opinion becoming desensitized to bias doesn't mean it's gone it just makes it seem normal. Some people still believe what they see not see what they believe.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 5:21 PM

ohh he is a funny guy now... polls mean nothing to those so desperate they will say polls mean nothing. Next he will telling us he is actually black but is so old he has faded to white.

Posted by: angriestdogintheworld | June 25, 2008 5:16 PM

CA, are you kidding me. McCain don't know if he's coming or going. One day he's at a windmill plant touting cleeeeean energy, the next day he's drilling for oil off the coast. The next day he's putting up 300 mil. for an advanced car battery "Thats already here" then he's building 45 nuclear reactors. The question came up, where are we going to put all that nuclear waste. McCain said, to a bunch of people clapping, the technology is here, they do it in France. They reprocess it and it works out fine, they been doing it for yeas. Straight up lie. Now that he's been doing for years. If the link shows up, here's some info from the back of the straight talk express. http://www.sortirdunucleaire.org/english/downloads/beyond-nuclear.pdf

Posted by: HemiHead | June 25, 2008 5:07 PM

Polls are only accurate to those who are leading. I remember when another so-called political expert, the ever-wrong Karl Rove was saying that the polls predicting a democratic sweep in 86 were wrong and that he had internal polls showing the republicans doing just fine. The old ZOMBIE McCain is toast - pure and simple.

Posted by: lee anthony | June 25, 2008 5:03 PM

What's all this talk about the "liberal media". I thought that stale old propaganda line finally died a deserved death over the past 6 or 7 years, given what we know now to be the mainstream media's overall failure to report anything other than the conservative government propaganda during the buildup to war, torture, Abu Graib, violated laws by high government officials, etc. Is it really too far of a stretch to label the corporate owned media empires (Fox, major networks and cable stations, most newspapers and major periodicals) as conservative biased, given the the few multinational corporations that own most of the media in the US are treated so favorably by the Republican party (in return for political donations)?

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 5:02 PM

First - Howard Dean is not a Congressional leader. Where you got that is anyone's guess. He is a fool and a dilettante. He was in Clinton's pocket during the primaries. Thank goodness Obama is staying aloof from crazy Dr. Dean.

As to McBush...he os too old to think properly.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 5:01 PM

I believe the polls. Howard Dean may not have been a great Presidential candidate but he is the best leader of Congress and the Democratic Party we have seen in a long time. His efforts are predicted to sweep all Democrat slates from the national level down to dog catcher.

But once we do have our well deserved one-party system, I hope our elected representatives can spend some time constructing and passing legislation that does more than help get candidates elected.

What you say? Howard doesn't lead the Congress? Anyone who can get an entire two-house legialature to stop doing the business we elected them to do and work full time for him fits my idea of the Leader.

Posted by: Tom Mariner | June 25, 2008 4:56 PM

Yo...you make several points while spewing about your hatred of Obama. Let me educate you.

You say: "I do not want health care ruined by letting the government run it..."

Yeah...it works SO WELL now, since the Republicans let the pharmaceutical industry write the laws and US Health Care Policy. That must be why EVERY American has health insurance. And you must HATE all those other "socialist" programs run by the government...like the military...the highway system...the border patrol...the CIA and FBI, etc etc etc so I'm sure you're against THOSE too, right?

You say: "I want to keep taxes low..."

Are you aware that unless you make over $160,000 a year...Obama's tax plan will save you more than McCain's? Maybe you're just richer than most Americans. Is that it, Yo?

You say: "(I want a) strong military..."

Then you can't possibly support McCain...who supported the Bush policies that have essentially destroyed the US military and their former capabilities. And destroyed our relationships with old allies around the world. And caused endless grief and suffering to tens of thousands of American families who had loved ones serving in Iraq.

You say: "(I want) strict constructionist judges on the courts."

You mean one's that will continue to spit on the US Constitution...like Bush Junior has done repeatedly? Remember Bush Junior calling the US Constitution "Nothing but a g*ddammed piece of paper!"?

Posted by: wilder5121 | June 25, 2008 4:56 PM

flip flopper mcbush who either doesn't understand facts, uses faulty logic, and like his mentor dubya ignores science...offshore oil rigs will take 30 yrs to come online and produce a total of three weeks' worth of oil at our current rate of usage; his short term pandering is also because he is indebted to PACs and oil/coal industry...short term gas tax "relief" would give even more money to oil, cut jobs dependent on the tax, and destroy infrastructure which depends on funds, so you know who he favors, his immigration policy changes daily...he is disengenous and doesn't say anything he means, so much for straight talk express hello bs artist....I am SO GLAD people would vote for ignorant racist mcbush who admits he knows nothing about the economy and calls teens punks and tells them he will draft them....what another moron...the world is watching.....all the flooding in Iowa is because gays are allowed to marry in CA, but surprisingly the state of CA didn't fall into the ocean...I am sure McBush was shocked!!!!! mcbush can't do the heil salute so supporters will have to come up with something else....aren't navy pilots trained to not surrender or become POWs....why are his psychological issues not brought up yet, he is even crazier and more senile now than when dubya himself brought up mccain's anger/psychological issues in 2000, which is WHY HE LOST????

solar/wind is from the devil!!!! hallelujah....those "alternative" east coast farmers growing those devil crops like apples and veggies...that is the devil's work.....its them dam librals..

crazy mcbush's latest stroke of genius or perhaps just a stroke: let's pay 300 mill for some new car battery...brilliant!!!!
crazy mcbush '08

Posted by: POSITIVE Change NOW!!! | June 25, 2008 4:53 PM

MeMyself, sorry I don't limit myself solely to opinions that are in my comfort zone and conform to my desired viewpoint. Some people are still able to use their brain.

Fox news was reporting a lot of the issues surrounding Obama for months but mainstream media refused to pick them up until after a lot of primary elections. Because democrats have boycotted Fox they were unable to see the truth about their candidate.

I feel sorry for the level headed democrats (a lot of them since a lot of democrats are moderates and good people) as they were manipulated into refusing to watch the only outlet they could have seen these issues in time to choose the better candidate.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 4:53 PM

McCain is a wooden duck. The bush administration and his lock step republican party have no chance in November. In fact, if they do manage to hold onto seats in congress it will be more due to the sweeping ignorance of poor white people than any kind of deserving mandate.

Posted by: mateo | June 25, 2008 4:50 PM

wow cryos
you actually watch fox news?..for divergent opinions? that actually explains a lot

e.g.
Hannity: i think we should send 100k more troops to iraq
Colmes: i think we should only send 50k more troops

yeah, real differences there

Posted by: meMyself | June 25, 2008 4:49 PM

McCain is going down to inglorious defeat. Republicans are going to take a powerful beating this fall, and they richly deserve it!

Posted by: Tom in California | June 25, 2008 4:49 PM

How come the media heavily reports only those polls that show obama in the lead? Gallup, the most professional independent pollster shows Obama's lead has fallen from 48% to 45% in the last week. McCain has gained 4 points from 41% to 45% in the same period. As of 25 June, McCain had caught up with Obama and they are tied at 45%. Rasmussen shows his lead to be quite small as well. Newsweek and LA Times are liberal rags that belong to the gutter press for unashamedly campaigning for Obama and are obviously lying. Clearly, the media is biased heavily in favour of Obama. This is what they did with Kerry and Dukakis and both lost. Obama will lose this election. With such reporting, McCain will gain more support from independents who detest media manipulation.

Posted by: Tony Sisule | June 25, 2008 4:48 PM

Knowing several people who worked for the gallop pole. I can't believe any of these surveys. In their case they were paid different amounts depending on the answer received. If a firm NO was wanted on a survey phone reps were offered more for getting that answer. The former employees found with a little social engineering they could get callers to give the answers that paid most and disqualify callers who gave an answer they didn't want.

Posted by: todd | June 25, 2008 4:48 PM

for all the people that believe what the polls say, remember 87% of all statistics are made up on the spot. anyone can get a poll to say what they want, it all depends on who is taking the poll and for what reason. the same goes for any studies that are done.

Posted by: kevin | June 25, 2008 4:48 PM

AnnMarie - earlier this year, Ron Paul supporters were trumpeting his big wins in online polls. That pretty much sums up their value--entertainment only.

BB

Posted by: Fairlington Blade | June 25, 2008 4:48 PM

Maximus I'm not sure "flip flopping" (wow is that term used too loosely these days) matters anymore. Obama does it constantly, McCain less frequently but he does change his mind too. Why? Sometimes a steady stance no longer makes sense as economic and foreign situations change. I think the last think most Americans want is another president like Bush that is so intractable s/he is unwilling or unable to change their view or policy. I want a president that has a plan but I also want one that can listen and react.

It is a very difficult line for a candidate to walk. On one hand, a steady idea is what people want... until they no longer like the idea ... and then Americans want something else. But, if they don't like what the alternative is, they are labeled a "flip flopper".

One campaign going right now is PUMA is sending millions of flip-flops to Obama. Yes, the man does change his mind constantly but I do hope he donates the flip flops to charity.

Both Obama and McCain pander. It looks like at this point it is just a matter of whether or not you want experience or no experience in the White House.

Posted by: AnnMarie | June 25, 2008 4:46 PM

Polls are deceptive but can reflect trends. If the statistical error is over +/-3% it's the numbers are worthless. What matters is that everyone who is eligible to vote needs to vote. You must participate in government as an informed voter. After doing my best to be educated on the issues I am voting for Obama.

Posted by: abby0802 | June 25, 2008 4:46 PM

Lol Wilder. I love the classic liberal attack on Fox News since it is the ONE news network not in the liberal tank. Rush and other radio hosts are right wing I don't like them either. I love when liberals mention Hannity then forget to mention Colmes. Oh thats right he's liberal so doesnt count since it supporters the view of a counter balance.

I prefer to listen to differing views and make my own informed judgement. I am a moderate by the way. In recent years however I have seen liberals outdo conservatives in intolerance and unquestionable views with the media and ideals as their god.

It's so sad to lose the ability to have good debates with liberals since they all follow the party line on issues and have lost any semblance of independance.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 4:45 PM

McCain was a member of the Keating 5. He's responsible for bilking savings and loan investors out of their investments and taxpayers out of their tax dollars. If he's not behind we're living in short term memory loss lane.

Posted by: MarkD | June 25, 2008 4:45 PM

Sorry all,

But Mr. McCain is very "OLD" to be president of the free world. He also uses bad grammar. McCain has a very limited vocabulary. The man is uneducated. We DO NOT need another McBush in the white house.

Republican for Obama ... eat that !

Posted by: R. TOOL | June 25, 2008 4:45 PM


Oh give me a break. Polls are just a way for the news to have something to talk about.

Posted by: Larry Oregon | June 25, 2008 4:44 PM

McCain and his campaign is praying for another large scale terrorist attack on U.S. soil, so that the polls swing his way. Knowing how Bush destroyed America's economy and made it the most unpopular country in the world, Osama Bin Laden may just comply. They don't call this geezer McSame for nothing.

Posted by: Playa | June 25, 2008 4:43 PM

McCain now knows what it feels like to be Hillary in the face of the Obamaton news agencies. They sure do love Obama! I guess the "liberal news media" is back!

Posted by: fat1de | June 25, 2008 4:42 PM

I tend to support the democrat ... now which one is he? O'Cain or McBama?

Both are in favor of keeping our surrogate in power in the Middle East (Israel) because no one dare say the Israeli are an imperialist outpost in a muslim world.

So, who cares what the polls say ... democracy has become meaningless in the US ... not a whole lot different from Zimbabwe!

Faddy MacMough, doncha know ...

Posted by: faddy macmough | June 25, 2008 4:42 PM

Obama is very left of Bill Clinton. And Clinton was from the South. Please dont shutter "swampy" as I do look at the issues. I was just pointing out how Mr. Change has nothing real to offer and does not have the resume for this job. Even Hillary pointed that out. The issues..I do not want health care ruined by letting the government run it, I want to keep taxes low, strong military, and strict constructionist judges on the courts. McCain was not my first or second choice but I will have to support him over the socialist Obama.

Posted by: Yo | June 25, 2008 4:41 PM

I always wonder about the 30-40% of the population that at one time liked GW, but has now realized he is on the wrong track. Did they just wake up one day and say "oh, what an idiot I have been for the last six years. Those gosh darn liberals were right after all, GW is an idiot." They are probably incapable of even realizing that they have changed their opinion and blame it on some other factor besides themselves. Anyway, I predict the same thing about McLame. Those that support him will deny doing so once he is shown to be a big loser for the GOP.

Posted by: David | June 25, 2008 4:41 PM

This is for "Yo"- first of all, your rudimentary use of the English language shows everyone on here your intelligence (or lack thereof).

Also, I hate to break it to all you McCain supporters-- but McCain's "judgment" and "experience" don't count for anything when you sit down and analyze his stances on issues.

-He voted for retroactive immunity for telecoms, to support an illegal domestic spying program
-He voted against providing 10 million children with health insurance
-He called his wife a CU*T, and later denied it
-He voted against drilling offshore in 2000, and now supports it (Flip-flopping)
-He self-admittedly knows nothing about economics
-Voted against making MLK Day a holiday
-Voted to lower corporate taxes
-Was against bush tax cuts originally, now wants them to be permanent, even though over 30% of the money goes to the top 1% of wage-earners in America

I could go on-- but the most pressing issue that has yet to be discussed in the political arena so far-- is McCain's involvement in the Keating Five Scandal. If you don't know what Keating Five is all about-- I recommend you look it up and educate yourself.

McCain may be a war veteran-- but that alone does NOT qualify someone for the office of POTUS.

I would like to believe that our country is smarter than it probably is-- and will learn that we CAN NOT AFFORD another Republican regime.

-Obama '08

Posted by: True Patriot | June 25, 2008 4:40 PM

Cryos...let me make a few corrections to your post:

Unfortunately a lot of the American public has been turned into obedient sheep with things like fear-mongering and political correctness that they would rather be spoon fed information by the Bush administration and FoxNews and regurgitate it than think about it and make a rational judgement. Nowadays people put more thought into American Idol. When you talk about how bad America has become I hope you're looking in the mirror as you say it.

The hate-spewing, truth-twisting, right-wing radio mouths like Limbaugh and Hannity pumping out brainwashed robots isn't helping things either.

Posted by: wilder5121 | June 25, 2008 4:39 PM

this is not a personal attack but a question? does being n a pow camp qualify as foriegn policy experience r national security experience n if so then why aren't more x pow's running for public office n last but not least does sentiment n emphathy replace commonsense n goodjudgement

Posted by: brkdckdawg | June 25, 2008 4:38 PM

Polls are always right = 50%
Polls are always wrong = 50%

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:38 PM

Polls have been very wrong in the past, they just make great stories for the press...

Posted by: Oregon4Obama | June 25, 2008 4:37 PM

We all have to be very careful in comparing polls from 2008 to those of 1988!

My prediction is that Obama will be polling with a 25 pt margin over McCain with only 15% undecided. This will be because gasoline prices would have reached the highest levels ever, violence in Iraq will increase (summer months and violence go hand-in-hand), and more disappointing economic indicators will come in.

Mark my words!

Posted by: Obama-Junkie | June 25, 2008 4:36 PM

AnnMarie! With "years of experience" why is John McCain flip flopping on so many issues related to war and national security? I thought that was his specialty and I truly thought that is the area that he would be sharp and fierce. I am a republican from Arizona that will vote for Obama. More and more of my friends and co workers are feeling the same with each McCain flip flop

Posted by: otonomus maximus | June 25, 2008 4:36 PM

Considering that the Republicans are the most vile Terrorists in the world, this news is not very shocking.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:35 PM

The media decided the democratic primary election I won't be surprised if it helps decide the main election. The last couple of years the mainstream media has stopped bothering to act objective and is just flat out biased. Unfortunately a lot of the American public has been turned into obedient sheep with things like political correctness that they would rather be spoon fed information by the media and regurgitate it than think about it and make a rational judgement. Nowadays people put more thought into American Idol. When you talk about how bad America has become I hope you're looking in the mirror as you say it.

The educational liberal factories pumping out brainwashed robots isn't helping things either.

Posted by: Cryos | June 25, 2008 4:33 PM

The current polls are reflecting a growing trend!

Look at the polls again in another three weeks when Obama and Hillary campaign together, June 2008 primary campaign fundraising is done and results are announced, and July 4th holidays are over.

My prediction is that Obama will be polling with a 25 pt margin over McCain with only 15% undecided. This will be because gasoline prices would have reached the highest levels ever, violence in Iraq will increase (summer months and violence go hand-in-hand), and more disappointing economic indicators will come in.

Posted by: Obama-Junkie | June 25, 2008 4:33 PM


Media are as liberal as the CONSERVATIVE businesses that own them.

Exit polls are VERY OFTEN within 5 percent of election outcome...except whenever such polls favor the left, they are deemed as inaccurate. why would that be?

o_-

Posted by: meMyself | June 25, 2008 4:32 PM

I used to always vote Republican for national government, and Democrat for local government.

I could never continue this practice, after all of the Bush lies.

Obama - you have my vote!

Posted by: Marshall | June 25, 2008 4:32 PM

"Eventually...change, change, change, change will need to be backed up by real plans. Obama is an empty suit and has nothing of substance to offer. Great resume he has..not. What the heck is a community organizer any way? I once organized a softball game in my town...Am I a Community Organizer and now can run for President. Also, funny how now for the general election Obama started wearing a flag pin."

Graduate from harvard as the editor of the college newspaper, turn down numerous 6-digit jobs, then become a community organizer...then if you have the law backround in the constitution...then if you have the charisma...then if you have the support of the people...then maybe you will have a shot. I actually like the fact that a regular guy has a chance at the presidency.
...and he only wears the flag pin because some people are soooooo stupid that they think it matters. Why not give the lemmings what they want? Now at least they might have to find a logical reason to not vote for Obama. SEE, he is helping people think on all levels, and even across the board to people who do not support him...

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:29 PM

Yo...you sound EXACTLY like those "geniuses" in 1992 who said Bill Clinton could never win across America.

And if you can remember back - before the eight long years of Bush Junior's endless incompetence, corruption, and failures - the Clinton years were the most prosperous in American history.

That was also back when a US president could visit a foreign country and get tens of thousands of people cheering him - and America - in the streets.

And that's exactly what the American people want again, not more of the same stale old Republican nightmare from George W McCain. That's why McCain will lose in November. Got it now?

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:28 PM

I was a republican voted for Bush twice but this time I will vote for Obama not becuase I agree in all things but I believe the war has done a lot of damage to the country and McCain wants to stay. The Iraq's does not want American troops they are saying they can defend themselves. Malki has visited Iran several times. No need for us to stay McCain

Posted by: Alex | June 25, 2008 4:27 PM

YO (4:10pm) said:"I think most people do not want to vote for a person who attended a racist church for 20 years, is friends with Bill Ayers and refused to wear an American flag pin on his suit."

Where I go to church, who my friends are and what I wear on my clothing has absolutely nothing to do with how well I can do my job.

Hey, I'm not crazy about Playa's remarks either.

Both of you need to study the relative positions of both candidates and their parties, and make your choice based on something real. If you're incapable of doing that, it really makes me shudder to think of you going into a voting booth.

Posted by: Swampy | June 25, 2008 4:27 PM

FIXED ELECTIONS BY ELITIST CENTRAL BANKING FAMILIES IS BORING. CAN WE HAVE OUR CONSTITUTION BACK NOW???

Posted by: Darryl | June 25, 2008 4:27 PM

It's time for a change. History will show the last 8 years as the most destructive since Herbert Hoover.

Posted by: Oregon | June 25, 2008 4:26 PM

I can't take how tediously formulaic the GOP playbook is. Sheesh, stop dusting off the same old "the opposition is arrogant and effete." It has become nails-on-a-blackboard boring already.

Posted by: Anita | June 25, 2008 4:24 PM

George Bush Sr was down by 18 points in June if I remember correctly, and he came back to win. In my opinion polls dont mean anything, especially if its not an even playing field to begin with.

Posted by: otonomus maximus | June 25, 2008 4:24 PM

How in the world can a poll of 1000 people taken 4 months before the election before any debates between the candidates be considered news? The presentation is nothing more than an attempt at peer pressure by USA Toay and the LA Times to support the candiate that they decided they would support a year ago. Don't buy the propaganda folks, decide for yourself who you'll vote for. It is our responsibility as citizens to make up our own minds and not be sheep to slogans and manipulated polls. I just wish these comment sections would give me more encouragement to believe in the intelligenc of my fellow Americans. Derogatory nicknames are gtreat in the playground but we're all grown up now.

Posted by: Mike | June 25, 2008 4:23 PM

"Dwayne - Take a look at an electoral map! These far left liberals can not win the heartland states. Sure Barack "I went to a racist church for 20 years and just now realized it" Obama will win NY, CA and the other liberal states but that is it. No way someone with a joke of a foreign policy (lets be nice and sit down with all and they wont want hate us anymore) will be elected in this current world state."

Yo,

So its a joke to reason with someone before you kill them? By your logic I should just look up your address and come to youir place and beat the crap out of yoiu rather then try to explain how our constitution works.

We have due process so that we can talk about how/why/when someone killed someone BEFORE we put them to death for it. The same idea applies to war and terrorism. Rather then run to war and death, we SHOULD try and understand why they want us dead. Maybe if we just change something small, that we don't care about, we could come to a decision that DOESN"T GET PEOPLE KILLED. Watch some Kung-Fu movies. Honor is in using your mind before using your fists.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:22 PM

Eventually...change, change, change, change will need to be backed up by real plans. Obama is an empty suit and has nothing of substance to offer. Great resume he has..not. What the heck is a community organizer any way? I once organized a softball game in my town...Am I a Community Organizer and now can run for President. Also, funny how now for the general election Obama started wearing a flag pin.

Posted by: Feech | June 25, 2008 4:22 PM

If the terrorist bombs one of the U.S. cities while Obama was our leader (God forbid), I can see it now: Obama saying to the terrorist: "What did we do; how can we make you love us?"

Posted by: Jill Clayton | June 25, 2008 4:22 PM

Polls crack me up. When I saw polls had Obama leading in Florida I, tongue firmly planted in cheek, asked anyone who wondered about the results "Who in Florida says they are voting for him? Would that be the older white women, the Jews, the Hispanics or the Republicans?"

If you click on straw polls such as those aol runs, you will see a completely different story. McCain ahead in every state. Now, this could mean someone is clearing their temp files and cookies and voting millions of times for McCain, or it could mean something else entirely.

This election should be interesting. The Dems are trying their best to smear McCain as a third Bush term. This is the same guy many Dems wanted as Al Gore's running mate! Unfortunately, when you look at the choices, Obama who has done nothing, stands for nothing, has no achievements, no foreign policy experience and no domestic policy experience versus McCain who is a war hero with generations of foreign policy flowing through his blood, little domestic experience and the party of a very unpopular president; this election cycle should be interesting.

Posted by: AnnMarie | June 25, 2008 4:22 PM

McCain supporters should NEVER believe what these liberal bias newpapers, television, magazines, are saying. I know quite a few people in several states and have an large extended family and only a couple are fooled by liarobama. We more knowledgeable and patriatic voters don't smear the other candidate on the internet as the Obamananas are doing. They are rude and sometime just plain vulgar. You have not heard from the McCain voters as yet. Obama spent almost all of his youth outside the United States, did not join a Christian (if you can call it that) church until he became an adult and thought about the fact that if he ran for office, he would almost have to be a Christian. He spent so much of his youth around his radical mother, Muslim step father and did spent time in Indonesia with his father who was buried as a Muslim. So how much was he brainwashed?

Posted by: love234america | June 25, 2008 4:20 PM

Yo wrote:

"This country will never elect such a far left wing Senator to be President...We do not need another Carter in the White House."

Obama far left? How so? No, we do not need another Carter, and I don't think Rosalynn is running this year. And we most assuredly do not need another Bush even if his name is McCain.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:19 PM

The "Marvick" might have been so in 2000 --In 2008 he's a "GELDING!!" That pretty much sums up the entire Republican field of candidates.

Posted by: Lee GIABENELLI | June 25, 2008 4:19 PM

"As long as Obama keeps only talking with a script he will keep this lead in these types of polls. Obama has no experience and terrible judgement. He had no idea he was attending an racist, anti-American church for 20 years. What a joke. Can you say empty suit?"

Feech,

I am perfectly able to sit and listen to someone's point of view without walking out on them. Everyone has something good to say sometime. Everyone has something bad to say sometime. How do you know that Wright spit racism for 20 years? Were you apart of the church or did you just listen to what the 20 second snips and media tell you?

I read your comment and still have you a chance to respond, even though I strongly disagree with your logic. Maybe Obama sat in church and listen to 99% of normal church, and simply ignored the 1% of the time wright was racist. Is that hard to understand?

Posted by: Anonymous | June 25, 2008 4:18 PM

Dwayne - Take a look at an electoral map! These far left liberals can not win the heartland states. Sure Barack "I went to a racist church for 20 years and just now realized it" Obama will win NY, CA and the other liberal states but that is it. No way someone with a joke of a foreign policy (lets be nice and sit down with all and they wont want hate us anymore) will be elected in this current world state.

Posted by: Yo | June 25, 2008 4:18 PM

rofl, next up: The McCain campaign takes on math, words, and paragraphs!

Posted by: Chris | June 25, 2008 4:18 PM

Feech, your comments are empty... If you want to criticize judgement, look no further than McSame's feeble-mided decision to sponsor the very bill that side-stepped the Constitution and authorized Bush to illegally invade and occupy Iraq. The very same war that is costing us over a trillion dollars that McSame and others promised would be a cake-walk that would be financed by the oil revenues from Iraq. Even if you are a deranged moron who supports the war, you have to admit that McSame et all were wildly off the mark. Yea, those suits full of the same old white guys spending our money and sending our kids off to die for the wars that make Haliburton and Bechtel rich sure are more full of s*it than any suit Obama's ever worn. Keep on chanting that Obama is a muslim, an "empty-suit", an angry black man or whatever you want, because soon you will have to call him Mr. President.

Posted by: Peacedog | June 25, 2008 4:17 PM

people should disregard polls altogether. individuals need to get off their apathetic posteriors and do the required homework to find out where candidates stand and how they have voted/acted in the past. the worst thing anyone could do is blindly go along with the prevailing group think like a bunch of mindless sheep. talk is cheap, especially what comes from the mouths or laptops of pollsters and pundits.

READ and THINK for yourselves!

I see. because people might vote for a candidate you oppose, they are not thinking for themselves. How do you know that the people in the polls are not thinking for themselves? They might be wexpressing their real opinions. You are the one needing to open his mind.

Posted by: Jim | June 25, 2008 4:16 PM

I'd be surprised if McCain got 15% of the vote in November. He'll be lucky to get half of the Republican vote and he won't get more than 25% of the independent vote.
And after the remarks from his campaign, if the USA gets attacked before the election, McCain will get blamed and he won't get 5% of the vote.

Posted by: DWayne | June 25, 2008 4:14 PM

Hey Bob. You're probably right.

But don't you think we should vote on the issues instead of propoganda? It's just slander.

McCain is nothing like Bush, no matter how you spin it.

Posted by: Max | June 25, 2008 4:12 PM

McWar is doomed and so is the party. They had a last chance to regain their former dignity and restore the Republic and the Constitution and they spit in his face. All I can say is good luck fellas - here's one Republican who will find somewhere else to spend his vote.

Posted by: Louis Nardozi | June 25, 2008 4:11 PM

To Playa -Nice way to represent your party and candidate! Good job! I think most people do not want to vote for a person who attended a racist church for 20 years, is friends with Bill Ayers and refused to wear an American flag pin on his suit.

Posted by: Yo | June 25, 2008 4:10 PM

Obama is a far-left liberal, being fed lines from slick handlers, who waves the race flag when things get tough. Most American VOTERS will figure that out come November.

Posted by: CA | June 25, 2008 4:09 PM

McCain could adopt the tactic that cry baby Bush takes. If you don't like what the e-mail is going to say...don't open it.

Republicans will pay for their blind support of Bush. 40 years in the political wilderness for worshiping false idols.

Posted by: thebob.bob | June 25, 2008 4:08 PM

This country will never elect such a far left wing Senator to be President. You all really think Obama can win heartland states? He is radical left and McCain is closer to the center and therefore will win. We do not need another Carter in the White House.

Posted by: Yo | June 25, 2008 4:07 PM

people should disregard polls altogether. individuals need to get off their apathetic posteriors and do the required homework to find out where candidates stand and how they have voted/acted in the past. the worst thing anyone could do is blindly go along with the prevailing group think like a bunch of mindless sheep. talk is cheap, especially what comes from the mouths or laptops of pollsters and pundits.

READ and THINK for yourselves!

Posted by: todd | June 25, 2008 4:07 PM

memo to Mcsame....most americans don't want to vote for a 71 year old daiper wearing geezer with a drug addict trophy wife and closely aligned to the worst president in U.S. history.

Posted by: Playa | June 25, 2008 4:07 PM

As long as Obama keeps only talking with a script he will keep this lead in these types of polls. Obama has no experience and terrible judgement. He had no idea he was attending an racist, anti-American church for 20 years. What a joke. Can you say empty suit?

Posted by: Feech | June 25, 2008 4:03 PM

Looks like George W McCain is consistent at ONE thing at least. Like Bush Junior, he always considers facts to be lies when they don't fit his agenda.

Posted by: wilder5121 | June 25, 2008 4:00 PM

Ed, if they realized that then they would have quit long ago. It's a shame they didn't. McSame is in for a shock come election day. Can't imagine the look on his face if he loses by DOUBLE DIGITS. God, I hope the LA Times is right.

Posted by: Matt | June 25, 2008 3:57 PM

All Obama has to do is repeat "McCain is another George W. Bush". Anyone with a functioning cerebral cortex would not vote for him.

Posted by: Bob | June 25, 2008 3:54 PM

Did it ever occurs to the McCain campaign that only around 22% of the country admit to being Republicans these days?

Posted by: Ed Lynch | June 25, 2008 3:20 PM

McCain is losing. Luckily for the GOP if it was someone else it would be much worse. The only reason its even this close is because McCain still appeals to his core constituency, the Media. They love him because he's so darn Mavericky!!

Posted by: Ann | June 25, 2008 3:19 PM

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