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Do Voters Who Threaten to Actually Bolt?

By Jon Cohen
Democrats eager to tamp down talk of disappointed primary voters bolting to John McCain point to the "fact" that a majority of McCain's own backers threatened to vote for Al Gore when George W. Bush secured the Republican nomination in 2000.

But the numbers of crossover voters frustrated by the nominating process was actually far less than that.

In Post-ABC and Pew national polling as the 2000 GOP primary wound down, more than seven in 10 Republicans who supported McCain also said they would back Bush over Gore in the general election. That is far lower than the 93 percent who backed Bush on Election Day, suggesting some bluster in the heat of battle, but nowhere close to a minority of voters.

Continue reading at Behind the Numbers»

By Web Politics Editor  |  June 6, 2008; 11:45 AM ET
Categories:  The Pollster  
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Comments

The switching sides to the Republican party that some say they will do after a defeated Clinton campaign, will soon change as those supporters come to their senses and realize that does not help the Democratic Party.

Yes, there are some of those in America that still carry the OLD ways of hate-mongering and stirring up prejudices and have indoctrinated the some younger generations, but the majority of real Americans that know we all are Americans and we want change in the way things are being done in the political world especially Washington corruption.

Simple fact is those that stay the course with John McCain and the Bush policies will get the same crap and perhaps drive us towards WWIII as the world hates America and seeks our destruction, no thanks to Bush/Cheney. As for the international community, they don't feel any love for McBush.

We can change the direction we have failed in so far through the Republican incompetence. Listen to what the world is saying about Barack Obama and they too feel he will bring peace and unity not only in America, but throughout our international community.

I have faith that the Clinton supporters will come through uniting the Democratic Party for many purposes. "United" we will oust the incompetent Republicans, if Bush doesn't get us into another war with Iran before elections.

OBAMA for President 2008/2012

Posted by: Jerry EZ, TEXAS | June 9, 2008 7:04 PM | Report abuse

Talk about voting against best interest. Women who support Hillary are likely to be pro-choice. Will they be so upset as to vote for McCain who very likely would appoint a justice to the Supreme Court that would vote to strike down Roe v Wade. I just dont see it. As a women, though Obama supporter, I think that women decieve themselves if they think empty threats will get them what they suppose they want. Play by the rules, ladies, and if you can't stand the heat of political battle, get out of the kitchen. (To paraphrase Hillary) If these women think not voting in November absolves them from the guilt of having Roe vs Wade overturn, then these are really lacking in both smarts and in basic common sense.

Posted by: nclwtk | June 6, 2008 12:00 PM

Carol:
Many people I know educated and not, Republican and Democrat always say to me, "they will never overturn Roe" How do I explain to them without going into great detail, that this is what may very well happen?

Nancy Keenan (President of NARAL):
The rights protected under Roe v. Wade are too important to take for granted. Let's take the Federal Abortion Ban decision as an example. Seven years ago, the Court struck down a similar state ban as unconstitutional. What changed? Bush appointee Samuel Alito replaced Sandra Day O'Connor and cast the decisive fifth vote upholding this ban. If another pro-choice justice retires, then there's an opening for the fifth anti-Roe vote on the Court. It's just that close.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 8, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

We're giddy.

Posted by: Jan | June 7, 2008 6:39 AM

Better look at the polls that have Obama meeting McCain GIDDY JAN.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 8, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

I can't believe all this hate being posted. Perhaps Obama was right when he said some are bitter. I have faith all this will pass and more comments on your mortgage dilemma, aiding your brave injured men and women whom fought hard for a war that should never have happened, and the loss of so many jobs. If it is true that America is paying $100.00 for a gallon of gas to fuel all your military in Iraq, perhaps that is a minor cause of the oil price increases. Peace to you all, move ahead with important issues now. Bring America back to the people. You all can do it,

Posted by: justadad55+ | June 8, 2008 2:47 AM | Report abuse

I've voted for Republicans and Democrats. I am extremely disappointed in GW Bush. His merging of the RNC and White House, Karl Rove's prominent position within the Bush Administration and Bush's attempt to politicize the Justice Department. I supported Clinton because I felt that she would be in control her White House. McCain, If feel is the same type of individual.

I'm more a left-leaning to conservative in my views. Obama scares me. His association with Trinity Church and Rev. Wright and his wife's comments and tone - they strike me as too militant. They see America through a very jaded lens.

Posted by: David | June 7, 2008 10:11 AM | Report abuse

No other primary candidate has ever gotten 18 million votes, more than the other candidate, and still been overlooked as the DNC hand-picks a different candidate.

And it is the very candidate who the Obama camp themselves early on publicly labeled as "unelectable."

We are simply going to prove to the DNC that without us, any Democrat is unelectable.

Ted Kennedy lost us in 1980.
Clinton re-won us in 1992 & 1996.
That's the math everyone should be doing.

There is only one political situation that is similar to me -- as a Clinton supporter -- and that when GWB took his case to the the Supreme Court and they handed him the Presidency against the will of the people.

So, how many Gore supporters would have ever voted for George W. Bush five months later?

I will never vote for Barack Obama.
It's time to send a message to the DNC that 18 million voters should not have been ignored.

The up-side to my decision (and I speak for every Clinton supporter I know personally) is I actually prefer divided government as balanced government.
Since the Democrats will have the House and the Senate, this is a no-brainer.

So, re-do the math with an historic 18 million voters, left out in the cold with a candidate they can't stand.

How many of them would have embraced George W. Bush after Gore lost the SC decision?

I know all 18 million of us won't bolt the DNC. But every Reagan Democrat will.

We know it only takes a few hundred thousand votes in about 10 states to keep BHO from ever being our President.

If it only took a few hundred thousand votes in about 10 states for Gore supporters to keep GWB from ever being their President, what so you think they would have done with that power?

I'm betting they would have been giddy with their power to do GWB in.

We're giddy.

Posted by: Jan | June 7, 2008 6:39 AM | Report abuse

Will be voting for a republican for the first time in my life: I will not vote for an anti-American, racist, black separatist, crooked, inexperienced machine politician that worked at ACORN (Google it) and is married to someone even more unpatriotic than himself. Senator John McCain HAS to be better than Barack Obama!!

Posted by: FDR Democrat | June 6, 2008 9:49 PM | Report abuse

It's time for everyone to settle down and reflect on WHO IS IN CONTROL of all THINGS! Do away with THIS, THAT, and THE THIRD. The threats,hate, and slander. we are all in this Together!

Posted by: doverstone | June 6, 2008 5:54 PM | Report abuse

Being pro-choice isn't the only factor to consider when voting for a president. It's their overall views, character and their history in politics -- what they've actually accomplished. I would guesstimate that those that say they will not vote for Obama won't. This situation is different from all others because Obama has issues with patriotism, racism, questionable close relationships and more.

Posted by: 4shelby2 | June 6, 2008 3:32 PM | Report abuse

Writing in Clinton in '08. Will help pick up the rubble of Dem party after Obama is beaten badly!

Posted by: jon | June 6, 2008 3:30 PM | Report abuse

Chicken Little "the sky is falling" To all the young Obama voters who by not voting until now allowed G W Bush another term I do understand you for I was young and wrong many times also!

Posted by: jackmack74 | June 6, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Go ahead and pout, Clintonistas!

I really believe that as the general election rolls along and the reality of voting for McCain sets in, you will let go of this angst.

As an Obama supporter from day one, I can put myself in your shoes and would probably feel the same way. But in November, however reluctantly, I would have voted for Hillary for the good of our future. There is too much at stake.

Unless you are a multi-millionaire or a defense contractor, you will not benefit from a McCain presidency.

Posted by: Susan | June 6, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Yes, I for one have switched to McCain, and that's a promise you can count on all the way through November without looking back!

Posted by: AM | June 6, 2008 3:14 PM | Report abuse

I do think it happens, just not at the high-levels everyone thinks it does. I, for one, know that I am not voting for Obama this fall (but would have voted for Hillary).

I guess the real question is, do I count, as I am an Independent voter, free to do whatever the hell I want?

Posted by: RItransplant2CA | June 6, 2008 3:02 PM | Report abuse

How lazy and lame Jon Cohen is. He is basing his conclusion on a 2000 poll. I thought it was 2008. Somebody better tell Jon Cohen.

Posted by: Jack Straw | June 6, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

They are cowards.

Posted by: Anonymous | June 6, 2008 1:12 PM | Report abuse

Well said, "eat it." I can only add as an 83 year-old, minority, Native American, who has faced his share of disappointments and outright racism, a true test in life is the ability to deal with "adversity" like an adult. Sadly, Hillary's supporters, including many women, who are threatening to bolt the Demo party and vote for McCain might best look at the unemployment report today, 5.5 percent, the highest in over twenty years. This a gift the GOP gave we citizens. Do you want more of this?

Hillary lost because she ran a flawed compaign, while Obama and his supporters mounted a remarkable campaign that helped him win the Demo nomination for Prez. Read the objective analysis of the race by credible political analysts and you will find unanimity in this conclusion.

Finally, for you Hillary dissenters, men and women, I can only conclude you are either "closet" McCain supporters, or juveniles who have never matured!

Posted by: Forrest Gerard | June 6, 2008 12:31 PM | Report abuse

The second poll in two days shows McCain trailing in Missouri, a bad start for his campaign. He is also in touble in a safe state like Kansas. Full roundup: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/poll-roundup-missouri-looks-like-toss.html

Posted by: Dan | June 6, 2008 12:25 PM | Report abuse

By election time this will all be ancient history. It will all be about issues and none of those women are voting for a guy who is against their right to choose. Wants to kill their children in a war. Has no interest in their children's health and well being. Wants to privatize SS. It will not even be a close by then. people vote their own interest. This guy is the biggest enemy women have and he wants their vote? Why do people think women are so stupid they will just vote from emotion? Women know something about the issues. That is really insulting to women. Hillary thinks they are just some kind of hormone driven dopy drones that will just follow her around?

Posted by: Anonymous | June 6, 2008 12:25 PM | Report abuse

When confronted with voting for years of more Bush policies, more reactionary right-wing judges and failed Republican rule, they'll come back. A McCain administration would be a disaster for America. He has, with a few minor exceptions, voted for the policies of baby Bush and the incompetent Republicans. Time for a change.

Posted by: thebob.bob | June 6, 2008 12:19 PM | Report abuse

This analogy is a little of, but I do believe that only a small number of Hillary's backers will indeed stay home or vote for McCain. It could have an effect in states like PA and MI.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: matt | June 6, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

HRC supporters are crazed dead-enders. They are going to spout off and nash teeth for a while. For all the hate you HRC supporters spewed during the primary I personally invite you to eat it, take your lumps and shut up.

That being said, now get in line behind BHO and be part of the winning team.

Posted by: eat-it | June 6, 2008 12:18 PM | Report abuse

CNN, "Late-night comedians make the news hilarious"! They are deliberately insulting 18 000 000 American voters and their candidate. Hopefully most of them will vote for McCain. CNN is one of Obamas main and most important unfair endorsers. Please boycott CNN!

Posted by: Richard | June 6, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

These voters are lying. They think by threatening, Obama would succumb and put BILLARY on the ticket.

It better NOT happen or Obama will have a spitting Cobra next door to him!

Posted by: KYJurisDoctor | June 6, 2008 12:11 PM | Report abuse

Yes, I think the Dems should count on all of Clinton's supporters coming back to the party in November. I relish the look on their faces when Obama is trounced.

Posted by: Floridian | June 6, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Talk about voting against best interest. Women who support Hillary are likely to be pro-choice. Will they be so upset as to vote for McCain who very likely would appoint a justice to the Supreme Court that would vote to strike down Roe v Wade. I just dont see it. As a women, though Obama supporter, I think that women decieve themselves if they think empty threats will get them what they suppose they want. Play by the rules, ladies, and if you can't stand the heat of political battle, get out of the kitchen. (To paraphrase Hillary) If these women think not voting in November absolves them from the guilt of having Roe vs Wade overturn, then these are really lacking in both smarts and in basic common sense.

Posted by: nclwtk | June 6, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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