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McCain Strategist Predicts Close Va. Race

By Tim Craig
RICHMOND, Aug. 14 -- A top strategist for Sen. John McCain's campaign said Thursday that the presidential contest in Virginia will "undoubtedly be close" this fall and acknowledged that the state should no longer be considered a Republican stronghold.

The comments by Mike DuHaime, McCain's political director, represent a significant shift in the GOP's thinking and are the latest signal that Virginia is emerging as a state that could make or break McCain's chances to defeat Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), the presumptive Democratic nominee.

"Obviously, Senator Obama is putting an awful lot of money into Virginia both on the ground and on television, and it is a state that has elected Democrats recently," DuHaime said in a conference call with Virginia reporters. "But it's one we take very seriously and one we think still leans for us and one we will fight for every single day."

DuHaime's comments about the state of the race in Virginia stand in stark contrast to a strategy briefing released in June by Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager. In that PowerPoint presentation, which was posted on the Arizona senator's Web site, Virginia was listed as one of 17 "solidly Republican" states.

DuHaime, who described Virginia as a "center-right state," said he still expects McCain to win Virginia because of his appeal among veterans in Hampton Roads and independents in vote-rich Northern Virginia.

But DuHaime noted that recent polls show Obama and McCain are essentially tied in the state. He said the McCain campaign is stepping up its efforts to organize in Virginia, including assembling more than 1,000 precinct captains.

"Basically you are looking at an even race in Virginia," DuHaime said. "But we think [McCain] is a Republican who matches up very well in Virginia."

The Obama campaign said DuHaime's comments prove that McCain is worried he could become the first Republican presidential nominee in 44 years to lose Virginia.

"They are now seeing the same things we are seeing, which is it is really close in Virginia," said Kevin Griffis, an Obama spokesman. "We are making a strong effort there and we are making that strong effort because we absolutely believe that Virginia is in play."

Since he clinched the Democratic nomination in June, Obama has been airing television ads statewide, opened 33 offices, and dispatched dozens of his most experienced field operatives into communities across Virginia, which has 13 electoral votes.

On Wednesday, Obama sent another signal about how badly he wants to win Virginia by announcing that Democratic Senate candidate Mark R. Warner, a popular former governor, will deliver the keynote address at the Democratic National Convention later this month.

The campaign also announced Thursday that another chief Obama surrogate, Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), will hit the stump for Obama this weekend in state.
Kaine, who has been mentioned as possible vice presidential candidate, will hold four town hall meetings for Obama on Saturday in Northern Virginia's fast-growing outer suburbs. On Sunday, Kaine will go door to door for Obama in the city of Richmond.

A Democratic presidential nominee last won Virginia in 1964, but demographic shifts and a decline of the Republican brand in vote-rich Northern Virginia has left Democrats optimistic that Obama can carry the state this year.

If Obama wins all the states that Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) carried in 2004, and adds Virginia and one other state that Bush also won that year, he would have more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. If McCain loses Virginia, he would most likely have to pick off a heavily populated state that voted for Kerry, such as Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Today, President Bush's former top political strategist, Karl Rove, wrote an Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal saying that Virginia, Colorado, Ohio and Michigan will be the four states that will decide the election.

Rove said Virginia, which Bush won by 8 percentage points in 2004, remains an "uphill climb for Mr. Obama, but not out of reach."

Robert D. Holsworth, a political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University, said the comments by Rove and DuHaime prove Republicans are now taking Obama's efforts in Virginia seriously.

"I think the Republicans, for awhile, thought it was a feint, they thought it was a bluff, and the Democrats were just trying to divert attention and make Republicans spend money, " Holsworth said. "But now, they are realizing Obama is very serious about Virginia."

DuHaime said he still expects Obama to outspend McCain in Virginia, but added the GOP now has a "battle-tested" team of staffers focused on guaranteeing a McCain victory. Yesterday, McCain's trademark "Straight Talk Express" bus made two stops in Virginia to try to generate interest in his campaign.

"No doubt about it, it is extraordinarily important for us to win Virginia and we are not thinking of a calculus without it," DuHaime said.

By Web Politics Editor  |  August 14, 2008; 7:22 PM ET
Categories:  B_Blog , Battlegrounds , John McCain  
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Next: Straight Talk Express's Limited Engagement

Comments

Obama goes to the convention with the worst single digit lead of any modern candidate. Couple that with the growing suspicion of Obama as a world leader and the fact that the recent poll shows large segments of white males unlikely voting for Obama who will eventually do himself in.

And the stupid comment about Richardson being vice president. Richardson is dead to Hispanics. He is considered a turncoat after what he did to the Clintons.

Many Latin American Hispanics are lining up with McCain who has shown an interest in Latin America.

McCain will be the next president whether he wins or loses Virginia. Obama comes off as an arrogant person who cannot be trusted.

Posted by: Political Watchdog | August 15, 2008 10:47 PM | Report abuse

Why are so many REPUBLICAN legislators concerned with the thought of McCain being President?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWpV8AbOocU

Posted by: J Michael | August 15, 2008 9:18 PM | Report abuse

I can understand this. All the intelligent people in Virginia were evicten and sent to Oklahoma when Jackson was president. They found gold on the Indian Nation and sent my ancestors to the black gold in Oklahoma and the cheated them out of that too.

Posted by: Old Coot | August 15, 2008 7:42 PM | Report abuse

VA is not left leaning. Unfortunately you have to consider the center skewed for anyone who is far right or far left. Basically a religious right conservative would consider anyone who is not right leaning to be an left-wing liberal extermist. Likewise a left-wing liberal activist would consider anyone who is not at least liberal leaning to be in the same boat as Jerry Faldwell and Pat Buchanan. Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and James Webb are centrists. All three support ideas that are popular across Virgina that are non-liberal. Both Warner and Webb got an endorsment from the NRA and the Virginia Sportsmen's Society for thier support of Virginia's hunters. They also ran against weaker opponents. Kilgore (versus Warner and Kaine) was pathetic. His entire platform was based on "I am a conservative and he is liberal, therefore you must vote for me". He had no real views or offered any real solutions in either election and it showed in the polls. As for George Allen, we all know what happened there.

Posted by: akmzrazor | August 15, 2008 1:13 PM | Report abuse

McCain is losing this battle in Virginia! Kaine and Warner are the products of the new liberal trend in Virginia. Now that Virginia and possibly even Ohio will likely vote Democratic this year, Senator Obama should choose Bill Richardson (D) governor of New Mexico to be his running mate. Richardson had the same job as George H.W Bush as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, he was Secretary of Energy (we need a better energy expert than Cheney to turn things around), and Richardson knows most of the leaders of belligerent and friendly nations. Richardson is very popular among Latinos who can deliver New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, perhaps even Texas in a few years!

Posted by: The Real Marc | August 15, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Mike DuHaime is apparently counting on a bump from Corsi's new swift-boating enterprise. McCain has proven that he will try to win the election by any means, including the use of slander and racist innuendo.

Posted by: CT | August 15, 2008 9:00 AM | Report abuse

McCaint at 71, he apparently decided "now or never" and seems to have sold his soul, suddenly adopting a bunch of boilerplate conservative positions he was brave enough to resist 8 years ago.

Now, conveniently, he's even claiming to be a Baptist instead of an Episcopalian.

It didn't look like anyone was buying it for a while there, but danged if he hasn't come back and pretty much sewed up the Republican nomination.

McCaint went from front runner to 3rd or 4th in various polls, spent all of his huge pile of cash and lost most of his staff, and worked his way back into a dominant position.

John McCaint grew up Episcopalian. He went to an Episcopalian high school.

For at least 15 years, he has been listed as an Episcopalian in authoritative directories such as the Almanac of American Politics and Congressional Quarterly's Politics in America 2008. He told a reporter from McClatchy News Service in June 2007 that he was an Episcopalian.

Suddenly, in September 2007, he's campaigning in South Carolina, the heavily Baptist state where George W. Bush barely managed to stop McCaint's presidential campaign 8 years ago. And guess what? McCain tells a reporter "By the way, I'm not Episcopalian. I'm Baptist."

When pressed, he said he's attended the North Phoenix Baptist Church in Arizona for more than 15 years, though he has never been baptized in that church. Now see, that's exactly the problem. Baptism is kind of a big thing in the Baptist Church. (That's how they got the name.) No baptism, not Baptist.

Anyway, details aside, this is one very clear indication of how McCaint has changed.

Now, he's just another hungry politician, happy to pander if it helps him win. Which eliminates the very reason people were excited about him in 2000 -- his honesty.

Founding Member of the Keating Five
Back in the old days, defendants in famous trials got numbers -- the Chicago Eight, the Gang of Four, the Dave Clark Five, the Daytona 500.

McCaint was one of the "Keating Five," congressmen investigated on ethics charges for strenuously helping convicted racketeer Charles Keating after he gave them large campaign contributions and vacation trips.

Charles Keating was convicted of racketeering and fraud in both state and federal court after his Lincoln Savings & Loan collapsed, costing the taxpayers $3.4 billion.

His convictions were overturned on technicalities; for example, the federal conviction was overturned because jurors had heard about his state conviction, and his state charges because

Judge Lance Ito (yes, that judge) screwed up jury instructions. Neither court cleared him, and he faces new trials in both courts.)

Though he was not convicted of anything, McCaint intervened on behalf of Charles Keating after Keating gave McCain at least $112,00 in contributions. In the mid-1980s, McCain made at least 9 trips on Keating's airplanes, and 3 of those were to Keating's luxurious retreat in the Bahamas.

McCaint's 2nd wife and father-in-law also were the largest investors (at $350,000) in a Keating shopping center; the Phoenix New Times called it a "sweetheart deal."

In 1995, McCaint sent birthday regards, and regrets for not attending, to Joseph "Joe Bananas" Bonano, the head of the New York Bonano crime family, who had retired to Arizona.

Another politician to send regrets was Governor Fife Symington, who has since been kicked out of office and convicted of 7 felonies relating to fraud and extortion.

McCaint has a reputation as a politician who has difficulty keeping his pants zipped, according to Republican sources. He acknowledges that his adultery broke up his first marriage.

His second wife Cindy, the daughter of a wealthy Budweiser beer distributor, was addicted to prescription narcotics and even stole hard drugs from a medical charity that she ran.

McCaint acknowledges that she didn't want him to run, and only agreed once he promised that she doesn't have to go to New Hampshire or Iowa.

McCaint will soon squirm in his empty suit and $500+ shoes when he is asked this question...You were Episcopalian why are you a Baptist now...please explain??


Posted by: AlexP1 | August 15, 2008 9:00 AM | Report abuse

The idea that DC residents are secretly sneaking across the Potomac to vote in northern Virginia is laughable. In a decade of trying to find violations of this sort, the GOP has found only about 5-10 credible (indictable) instances of ANYONE voting illegally. That's nationwide.

Voter ID laws are a thin facade designed to drive down turnout among lower-income voters, who tend to go Democratic. Intimidation and repression have altered recent elections (hello, Ohio 2000!); people voting illegally hasn't mattered since the 1920s. If you are concerned over the integrity of the voting process, understand that the one-person one-vote principle means allowing every US citizen of age to vote. Voter ID laws and the practice of challenging the votes of citizens are simply neo-Jim Crow suppression techniques disproportionately aimed at the poor and at people of color.

McCain can and should denounce these GOP techniques, but given the extraordinarily dirty way he's conducted his campaign to date, I'm not optimistic. Look out, Virginia!

Posted by: Saucy Sauce | August 15, 2008 7:20 AM | Report abuse

The Republicans should being monitoring the Virginia voter regristration rolls to prevent Washington,D.C. residents from voting in the Commonwealth.This type of chicanery is why we need a national Election law with photo ID,fingerprints,iris scans or chip monitoring to keep the Democrats from stealing elections.

Posted by: Tom Dockery | August 15, 2008 5:52 AM | Report abuse

If the Republicons are calling it close, then in the world of political spin that says to me they're kissing Virginia goodbye. Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of pirates!

Posted by: Waldo Leidecker | August 15, 2008 5:22 AM | Report abuse

Truth about South Ossetia War
http://www.nebog.com/truthaboutwar.htm

Posted by: Vladimir | August 15, 2008 4:31 AM | Report abuse

Let's see...
The Senate race in Virginia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Virginia,_2008
The House races in Virginia (District 2, 5, 10 and 11):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Virginia,_2008

Yes, it looks like the Republican Party in Virginia is in trouble. Up-ticket or down-ticket, the Democrats are gaining.

Posted by: Tom J | August 15, 2008 12:09 AM | Report abuse

If Obama throws enough resources into Virginia he could win it. The primary turnout in Virginia was in favor of the Democrats with a margin over 2-to-1. Even after Romney dropped out McCain only beat Huckabee by 9pts.

One of McCain's favorites for VP is Tom Ridge. If Ridge is selected VP, Virginia becomes a toss-up, but McCain loses the general election because the conservative Republican base will not vote for a candidate who is at best "wish-washy" on abortion and Ridge is pro-choice.

Posted by: Obama-Junkie | August 14, 2008 10:32 PM | Report abuse

Here's a good video on McCain:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Oot9IbQxrI

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 9:46 PM | Report abuse

And we start the expectations game between the two campaigns. This is less about real concern (of which there should be a lot) than it is setting up for all scenarios.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: matt | August 14, 2008 9:27 PM | Report abuse

And we start the expectations game between the two campaigns. This is less about real concern (of which there should be a lot) than it is setting up for all scenarios.

http://www.political-buzz.com/

Posted by: matt | August 14, 2008 9:23 PM | Report abuse

Of course, if one of the candidates has real dirt on the other then it won't come out until after the convention.

And they both could have skeletons in their closets. Guys who cheat, like McCain, tend to do it a lot. And women, well, we've seen by Hillary and her supporters that hell hath no fury like a woman scorned. If he was womanizing with the John Tower crowd, it'll come out. Plus, the guy married into a crime family. Sooner or later, that stuff is coming out. And, of course, there could be dirt on Obama.

Obama was down 20pts Jan1 and then made his move against Hillary and passed her by mid-Feb. There's a long way to go in this one, and it gets real in a couple of weeks. Expect drama, expect ratings. Obama is going to gave a 3-1 financial advantage after the convention. It's gonna be an interesting campaign.

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 9:18 PM | Report abuse

The Republicans are the most incompetent political leaders; Bush and Cheney are the worst. They are liars, have no integrity, and opportunistic. The Bush regime has lowered America's standing in the world. Just look at how Russia has overran the 2 enclaves of Georgia which is the client of mcCain's strategist. Now McCain and Bush and Cheney and the neocons might coopt our military to go haring off to defend Georgia. Viriginia should dump McCain and the Republicans. Obama and the Democrats will do right by the United States. 8 years of Bush are horrible!

Posted by: M. Stratas | August 14, 2008 9:14 PM | Report abuse

You call youself the toxic avenger. Isn't that cute. Do you wear little Limbaugh jammies with feets covered in dead chillen dipped in forty weight, toxic avenger? You've had five years to stop killing Iraqis after Saudi Arabia attacked us but it is hard to be dumb.

Posted by: bob II | August 14, 2008 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Don't forget Georgia. Polls (ie Republican liars who want to make it seem like McCain can win, so that he can fundraise among his crowd that won't back a loser) have McCain with a comfortable lead, but if you run the numbers with a model for turnout at 65/28/7 for white/black/latino and with Obama winning 25/95/65, McCain doing 66/3/26 and Barr doing 9/2/9 among those voting blocks then you get to this result: Obama 47.5, McCain 45.5, and Barr 7. Maybe Barr only gets 5% there, but maybe the blacks comes out at 29%, they are already 27% of the electorate there, and every 40k in Obama voter registrations there increases the model 1% black...

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Wow- you know that Bush is truly the worst president in history when he's so bad that even Virginia is in play.

How great it would be if this state finally wised up and went for Obama- it would be a terrific rejection of the ignorance, racism, and small-minded fearful politics of its past.

Posted by: LH | August 14, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

I think everybody knows that Republicans are greedy and that their business network of Big Oil, Big Tobacco and Big Wars are despicable. The question has always been: is there a suitable alternative? Dukakis, despite being a nice enough guy, was naive. Clinton, despite being sleazy, was crafty enough, and did basically screw the Russians as much as he could. Gore and Kerry both seemed... just not right in some way that was potential harmful to our national interests. I think that Obama is like Clinton in that he's a self-made man who has the confidence and the ability to really lead.

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 9:03 PM | Report abuse

The problem this commie GOP has is conservatives are deserting them in droves.

This means more and more states will turn blue. Virginia is just one of them. There will be very few, if any red commie GOP states left after this election.

Alaska, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado, North Carolina, Maine, Oregon, and Mississippi are all up for grabs even Texas and Arizona are considered winable with so many deserting this commie GOP.

THE GOP IS DEAD.
They did it by turning the GOP into the Communist Party.

Everyone can see the Republican party ain't conservative any more, time somebody dug a hole and buried the GOP's stinking slimy corpse!

Why on earth would any patritic American vote for this commie GOP?

Do you really want to continue the damage this commie GOP has done to America?

Are you a commie GOP supporter?

Posted by: walker1 | August 14, 2008 9:03 PM | Report abuse

Bob II-you may need to up the dose on your Prozac, unless you enjoy being a whiny miserable liberal.

Posted by: Toxic Avenger | August 14, 2008 9:00 PM | Report abuse

It was Boston's Mayor White, which I found ironic, not wanting to bus his white Catholic children into predominately black neighborhoods. I think it is innate in a manifest destiny foreign policy of ordained right to kill innocents for their betterment, a preemptive cleansing for corporate enrichment. Corporate media nuture division by parsing markets and controlling the discussion. It isn't what the corporate dailies print, it is all the news they intentionally kill to ensure your viewpoint is specifically skewed. You view the carnage of Georgia, bloody women and children okey dokey; none of which you are allowed to view for our Holy Oil Occupation of Cheney's Promised Land. Take your country back from the corporate war machine and elect Obama.

Posted by: Bob II | August 14, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse

A few points: Boston has a racial history too, busing in the 70s etc, and there are still rednecks here, but we'll be going for Obama, in a big way.

Also, Obama has support within the military. Powell will likely endorse him and work in his Admin, if he's elected. And he's received more donations from the military than McCain has. Many people who have fought in war don't take the idea of going to war as lightly as Bush did.

Finally, when it comes to playing chess against Putin, Obama is probably craftier than McCain, who would be Bush on steroids. Putin is an arms dealing oil man, and the Bush Administration made him stronger. McCain means more wars, higher tensions in the gulf, and higher energy prices. Just what KGB Inc. wants.

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Liberal don't deep fat fry their own children for oil contracts Bubba!

Posted by: Bob II | August 14, 2008 8:45 PM | Report abuse

You liberals are pathetic. I can't wait for the day the black voter finally wakes up and realizes what the democRATS have done to the black family, and all for power. Go ahead and get excited about the young and dumb voters flocking to B. Hussein Obama-it won't be enough. Republicans have not come up to the plate, but no way in HELL will VA vote for a POS liberal! "Mamma don't let your babies grow up to be liberals"!

Posted by: Anonymous | August 14, 2008 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Virginia has an incredible history of American leaders, some good, some not so good but Virginia has always had a lot of influence in DC. Choose wisely and get off this war wagon. We have matters just as important as chasing the Islamic extemists we helped create in 79 to fight Russians with the help of France, Britain and Pakistan. They have been trying to drive us from the mideast for EVER. They attacked us because we militarily occupy Saudi Arabia, which a federal judge ruled today has no liabilty for 9-11. The AP gave it four paragraphs in this paper. True. Do NOT elect McCain. He is too old, too angry and too dumb!

Posted by: bob II | August 14, 2008 8:39 PM | Report abuse

For the life of me, I cannot comprehend why VA would go to the Democrats - we have had some of the worst Democratic leaders recently here and there is a great hype about a politico, Warner, who is running for Senator and speaking at the Holy Democratic Convention... Does anone with a brain remember that Mr. Warner raised taxes on us poor working stiffs (he is millionaire made by a very questionable windfall of telecom spectrum speculation)and did ABSOLUTELY nothing to improve the Roads in Northern Virgina. Today many of us still ply this HELL called 395/495, Route1, Route 66? Tell me what this man did to earn everyones adulation!? Then there is neophyte Kaine, another Hell raising Tax Raiser who has done NOTHING to improve the lot of Virginians! I am being TAXED to death - and no, I will not move to West Virginia!

Posted by: Vassily | August 14, 2008 8:35 PM | Report abuse

Oh my goodness. All this yapping about Virginia. Of course Mr. Obama will win VA.

Posted by: Bob | August 14, 2008 8:33 PM | Report abuse

The sense of a groundswell is very real here when you go door to door. People who you might expect would be immediate McCain supporters often are not. After talking to some undecideds, I think the VP decision will be the final justification for some voters in making the commitment to a new path for the country--a slight worry about "inexperience" seems to be the issue, and NOT crazy Internet rumors, accusations of celebrity, etc. If the VP nominee has strong foreign policy or national security cred I think that may be all they need in their own minds to close the deal. It is also really helping already that Mark Warner is speaking at the convention and fully throwing his support behind Obama. Virginians are not only flattered by the spotlight on the commonwealth but also respect Warner's judgment and therefore are inclined to like Obama since Warner does.

Posted by: Fairfax Voter | August 14, 2008 8:31 PM | Report abuse


VA democrats were some of the most ardent and vocal supporters of the KKK in the 1960s. Many crossed the border into WV to vote for KKK democrat Robert Byrd. They violently fought the republicans that eventually won equal rights legislation. When Obama loses VA it will be because of the Bradley Effect democrats.


Posted by: Avol | August 14, 2008 8:30 PM | Report abuse

Anyhow, if you normalize the data from yesterdays poll and give Obama 95% of the black vote, instead of 57%, then that makes an 7-8% difference in the results, due to the fact that blacks are 19% of the sample.

And that 7-8% lead doesn't even account for historic turnout for young and black voters, which will be another 5-6% due to the ground game.

If there's a hurricane, blacks will make it to the polls that day. Conservatives don't trust McCain. Many are pretty sure he's lying to them and will raise taxes the first chance he gets. And the old conservatives guys and gals who have been faithful don't like the fact that McCain broke his oath and played it fast and loose with his first wife. Plus, conservatives know that the economy is in trouble, they're willing to let Obama take the next four years and then put Jeb in there in 2012. It's the same thinking the Clintons used in 2000 and 2004 when they stabbed Gore and Kerry in the back. Finally, if McCain wins then that means that the conservative wing of that party doesn't matter. They aren't motivated to really help McCain. It all adds up to an Obama victory in Va.

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 8:29 PM | Report abuse

McCain will win VA.

Posted by: Marc | August 14, 2008 8:26 PM | Report abuse

You are absolutely right about Macaca Boy, a right wing sheet wearer on a pony. I got to say this. I'm from Mississippi and I never knew a Klansman in my life but I'm a liberal Democrat and I have some horses. Point. How in God's name do you wake a pony up in the middle of a hot summer night and get it to let Billy Bob mount him in a sheet with two spook holes cut out carrying a nasty flaming torch to terrify children. My horses would kick your ass before you ever got near them. The Republicans are chemically bombing a defenseless oil reserve to privatize it and it is a list of war crimes longer than the lies they starting spewing while we were still putting out the flames of 9-11, as in putting Ray Hunt, billionaire oil man on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board two weeks after 9-11, hence Bubba Hunt got an illegal oil contract from Kurdistan but miraculously AP now refers to Kurdistan as autonomous. Hunt raised more than $100,000 for Bush in 2000. The Republican Party is as dead as a million Iraqis. Virginia has to be smart enough to know right from wrong.

Posted by: bob II | August 14, 2008 8:25 PM | Report abuse

Bob,

Cut us Virginians some slack. My mother's family has been here for generations and came from near Lynchburg. They hated Fallwell, the clan, and any other such nonsense, in spite of being Southerners and conservative. That sack of crap Allen was a one term Senator, who was preceded by a Democrat named Chuck Rob for many terms. Republcians today are not conservative, they are fascists.

The problem is the number of 'Reagan' Vets retired here who are stupid enough to think the GOP stands for a strong defense and cares for its soldiers.

Posted by: TortFeezer | August 14, 2008 8:21 PM | Report abuse

(2) Northern VA

Has gone democractic for Gore and Kerry, it will be won easily for Obama .. the question is how much turnout and subsequent votes will Obama get out of Richmond/Hampton Roads and the universities

Posted by: delantero | August 14, 2008 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Good point. Virginians also know that Republicans helped Big Tobacco screw over the American people. Our own people. That now we don't want to provide an education to or health care for.

Greedy, nasty, short-sighted people. They aren't Patriots and they aren't moral evangelicals, they are cynical, lying bastards who will pervert religion, politics, and our own people... for a dirty buck.

Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Report abuse

This shows how people are trying to hype this election up. VA has never been a GOP stronghold. Never. Everyone acts as if getting a liberal gov elected was revolutionary. That it has never happened before. It has. Many times. Senators? Many have been liberals. Has VA ever voted for a liberal president? Yes. It has been a while. But it has happened. Get over it already.

Posted by: Fightertom34 | August 14, 2008 8:17 PM | Report abuse

With a wave of non-speaking voters, what do you expect? This was the plan all along, screw the country, it's all about POWER!

Posted by: Toxic Avenger | August 14, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

As a progressive, I'd love to see this. But I just don't see how it's going to happen: we are only a few years away from Virginia having a Klansman as US Senator, and that because he lost by a tiny sliver of votes after everybody saw him as the 'macaca'-baiting bigot he has always been.

This points to a much larger strategic dilemma for the Democrats: they have yet to construct a compelling narrative as to why clueless candidates who are far, far out of step with the aspirations of most Americans (like health care) beat them so badly. For example, I'd like to hear why my party has rolled over and played dead for the last several years, long after the Bush presidency lost any credibility.

The 2000 loss we can chalk up to flat-out surprise and a way weak campaign. But the 2004 loss -- starting with nominating a Boston liberal war protester as a national candidate -- took place after we all know the Bushies for what they really are, from the war lies and tax cuts to Katrina.

This loss ought to bother Democrats far more than it does. That would be the first step to constructing a message set that makes sense for Americans outside of the 16 safe states.

Posted by: Bob | August 14, 2008 8:14 PM | Report abuse

Those National Security Savvy Northern Virginians know a faker when John tries to con them into believing he is pro military. Don't forget, they get local coverage of Congress, especially who doesn't bother to show up.

The Military, Northern Virginia AND Southern Virginia got full coverage of McCain's opinion that there should be no economic incentive for vets to get out while there is still time, know who is responsible for all the stop loss actions, know who won't even vote on many military bills. They also have no reason to vote for their own continuous rerotation into combat because John opposes building up the Army, and then has to oppose reasonable stabilization rules because he and his Party have run out of fresh, or for that matter only moderately used, troops.

Facts and experience, aspergirl, trump TOP (Truth Optional Party) talking points all the time. Especially on election days, which is why so many more Democrats voted in the Primaries than Republicans. It is the REPUBLICANS who need to reverse current voting trends if they are to survive the pridie Nonas of November.

And they need to do it in more than half of the formerly red states. Get the results of the Primaries, (or ask me for a copy of my Access Data Base file) and note all the RED states where McCain finished second or third to Democrats.

If John's comments on having a pro choice VP have the wrong effect, and the "Values Republican Evangelicals" decide to vote Barr, John may win no states at all.

Just an example of how easy it is for John to be John and help the Dems even more.

Posted by: ceflynline@msn.com | August 14, 2008 8:14 PM | Report abuse

It's the same Mr. Magoo who's 72 strategy in every state. I'M SORRY I HAD TO MURDER YO CHILLEN FOR OIL CONTRACTS FOR WHITE BOYS FROM DALLAS BUT IT'S THE AMERICAN WAY. Same ole, same ole white boys from my Dixie talkin bout law and order. Republicans offer economic recession, largest debt of all time, global devestation, eternal war against an emotion and they let bin Laden RUNNOFT for JESUS and the Rapture comin to a cross near you. It's your lucky, lucky, lucky day America, you can elect a Harvard scholar who actually wants to govern or a psychopathic 72-year-old, delusional, racist soldier blabbering about Czechoslovakia and the next colored folks he needs to light on fire to save the world. Nobody in Virginia is stupid enough to kill their own children for a Ray Hunt oil contract given the option. Let's see how smart the Virginians are in November. Choose wisely and get used to looking at Obama. You'll be seeing a lot of his beautiful family.

Posted by: Bob II | August 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Report abuse

Yesterday's poll had the Va. race tied, but it was based on Souther Fried Statistics:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/downloads/uploaded/55_InsiderAdvantage%20Majority%20Opinion%20Research%20VA%20Pres%20Poll%20Cross-Tabulations%208%2013%2008.pdf

There is no way on God’s green earth that Obama is only getting 57% of the black vote in Virginia this year, or that black turnout will be 19% there. They turned out 21% of the electorate for Kerry and gave him 87% of their votes. It’ll be 24% and 95% for Obama. Talked about skewed stats.

All the pollsters are going with polling models with turnout from typical years. But this year young and black voter turnout will change the electorate in Va and many other states.

Va is 20% black. If the turnout increases 20% and goes for Obama 95% then that's a 4% increase. And the 18-29 group is turning out at at additional 40% rate of their 17% base and that's another 2%. So Obama has a 6% advantage in the ground game that's not being measured by today's polls.

Virginia is going blue.


Posted by: JR, Boston | August 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

I think I am beginning to understand: the VA Republicans think that if they can bring northern Virginia to its knees in traffic gridlock, the liberals living there won't be able to get to the polls to vote.

Posted by: Jim S. | August 14, 2008 7:59 PM | Report abuse


Do you all know how fast America is going to get tired of seeing Mr. Obama's face?

We already ARE.

Posted by: Anonymous | August 14, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

McCain's ads admit that America is worse off than 4 years ago. So why would he believe that anyone would vote for a Republican. Its the GOP that brought us down.

Posted by: paulnolan97 | August 14, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

Asper girl, You seriously think those leach government care about anything but themselves? You are deluding yourself. They are not thoughtful enough.

Posted by: jeffp | August 14, 2008 7:51 PM | Report abuse

Mike DuHaime is a liar. Has been. Since he worked for RudE The lying stuttering jerk.

Posted by: jeffp | August 14, 2008 7:48 PM | Report abuse

2 problems for Obama related to regional issues of being adjacent to Washington DC.

(1) Northern VA where all the new liberal-moderates reside, has national security concerns.

(2) Northern VA, where all the new liberal-moderates reside, has a politically sophisticated electorate and will be paying attention as the election draws near; they won't be as vulnerable to feel-good, fuzzy rhetoric but will think more pragmatically and issues-oriented. That works against Obama.

I don't see it happening unless Obama moves the needle generally in his direction enough to shift the margins altogether.

Posted by: AsperGirl | August 14, 2008 7:48 PM | Report abuse

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