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Study: N.H. Voters Increasingly Democratic

By Juliet Eilperin
DOVER, N.H. -- GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin launched an all-out push today in New Hampshire, a state that helped resuscitate John McCain's presidential campaign this year and could prove critical in next month's election. But even as Palin holds rallies in Dover, Laconia and Salem today, a new analysis by the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute suggests the state has become increasingly Democratic over the past decade.

New Hampshire is one of the few states that flipped between 2000, when George W. Bush carried it, and 2004, when he lost there to John Kerry. Barack Obama has recently edged ahead of McCain in the polls here, but as the electoral map has narrowed, the McCain camp is fighting hard for the state's four electoral college votes.

Nearly a third of the state's current potential voters have become eligible to vote there in just the past eight years, according to the survey, and these same voters are more likely to identify as Democrats than New Hampshire's longtime voters. The three researchers -- a demographer, a polling professor and an election registration expert -- based their analysis on U.S. Census, Internal Revenue Service and polling data.

Between 2000 and 2008, they found 208,000 possible voters moved to New Hampshire, many from the Boston area. During the same time, 113,000 New Hampshire youngsters reached the age of 18. That means that 321,000 of the state's 991,000 potential voters came from just these two groups.

Both young voters (53 percent) and interstate migrant voters (52 percent) are more likely to be Democratic than established voters, 43 percent of whom are self-identified Democrats. By contrast, 39 percent of longtime voters identify as Republican -- but only 28 percent of young voters and 32 percent of migrant voters do.

"The state has been trending more Democratic in the last eight years -- really, in the last fifteen years," said Andrew Smith, who directs the UNH Survey Center and co-authored the report along with Carsey Institute senior demographer Kenneth Johnson and UNH political science director Dante Scala. "New Hampshire, based on 2000 and 2004, is certainly going to be competitive."

In 2004, Kerry got 50.2 percent of New Hampshire's vote to Bush's 48.8 percent, while four years earlier Bush bested Al Gore 48.1 to 46.8 percent.

By Web Politics Editor  |  October 15, 2008; 11:08 AM ET
Categories:  Battlegrounds , Democratic Party , Republican Party  
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See a McCain rally go bad, Booing and People leaving. A song Hank Williams sang was vulgar and offended some. Heres the clip

Who won the Best Palin Impersonator Contest? Not Tina Fey. See Clip.

Posted by: pastor123 | October 15, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse

Job Creators Prefer McCain 4-To-1 Over Obama

- MarketWatch: "NEW YORK, Oct 08, 2008 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/ -- Over 70 percent of CEOs fear an Obama presidency will be a disaster Chief Executive magazine's most recent polling of 751 CEOs shows that GOP presidential candidate John McCain is the preferred choice for CEOs. According to the poll, which is featured on the cover of Chief Executive's most recent issue, by a four-to-one margin, CEOs support Senator John McCain over Senator Barack Obama. Moreover, 74 percent of the executives say they fear that an Obama presidency would be disastrous for the country.

'The stakes for this presidential election are higher than they've ever been in recent memory,' said Edward M. Kopko, CEO and Publisher of Chief Executive magazine. 'We've been experiencing consecutive job losses for nine months now. There's no doubt that reviving the job market will be a top priority for the incoming president. And job creating CEOs repeatedly tell us that McCain's poli

Posted by: username | October 15, 2008 6:50 PM | Report abuse

If NH is so bad, why are all the Mass***** moving here?
JUST GO HOME PLEASE you are destroying NH with your $500M deficits and 25 new taxes.

Your governor is a jerk and so is your legislature.

Posted by: username | October 15, 2008 6:48 PM | Report abuse

And this is easy to understand why....

The schools are now controlled by Ayers' types who enforce a political agenda from kindergarten to college.

There is no more constitution and bill of rights.

It's all UDHR, MDG, etc.
The UN controls all and the kids are indoctrinated.

Just see what our 14% congress just passed and you will see that now Al Gore's agenda is infused HB 3036.

It's disgusting and you have to home school your kids to save them from this nonsense.

My taxdollars used to indoctrinate kids to world government I object to.

And so you should too. Stop paying the IRS!

Posted by: username | October 15, 2008 6:46 PM | Report abuse

See a McCain rally go bad, Booing and People leaving. A song Hank Williams sang was vulgar and offended some. Heres the clip

Who won the Best Palin Impersonator Contest? Not Tina Fey. See Clip.

Posted by: pastor123 | October 15, 2008 3:03 PM | Report abuse

This is like Democrats moving to NOVA for the good schools and low taxes. Boston Commuters move to NH with there Massachusetts ways and keep voting democratic but what I dont get, why they left MASS in the 1st place?

Posted by: thejibreelamonsters | October 15, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if the D stands for Delusional?

McCain's stimulus plan is more of the same Bush voodoo economics: tax cuts for the very rich. The Tax Policy Center estimates that the middle 5th of taxpayers will get a $4.00 benefit, while the top 1% will get a $35,000 benefit. Which is great if you're rich.

But the idea that tax cuts for the rich trickle down to improve the middle class has been tried for the last 8 years, and it hasn't worked to create jobs or raise middle class incomes.

I think McCain is going to be in real trouble tonight when this issue comes up.

Posted by: dpc2003 | October 15, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

I still think NH will go for McCain.

Posted by: JakeD | October 15, 2008 11:42 AM | Report abuse

I think NH voters are particularly well informed, generally independent, fiscally conservative, and generally ambivalent to the way other people live there lives (hence disinterest in pushing socially conservative agendas)

It is no surprise to me that they trended away from a reasonably disastrous Bush administration from 2000 to 2004. In a similar way NH is trending away from John McCain as the McCain campaign has become increasingly negative, not-so-straight-talking, and generally removed from that personable 'happy-warrior' that was his signature in previous primary campaigns.

Posted by: jolt1 | October 15, 2008 11:35 AM | Report abuse


Obama needs to be aggressive tonight and NOT just sit on his "lead" -- because there may be no lead at all by Election Day.

Today's Politico lead story indicates that the Rev. Wright issue will be resurrected in McCain TV advertising... alongside of Rezko, Ayers and ACORN.

If McCain goes the "guilt by association" route, Obama should bring up the Alaska Independence Party; Todd Palin's membership in a group that advocates seccession from the U.S.; its founder's anti-American statements; and ask the question:

"Is your running mate Sarah Palin palling around with someone who pals around with enemies of the state?

If Obama lays back, he could see his lead diminish as the "fear factor" takes hold -- as it always seems to do in the waning days of recent presidential campaigns.


What if McCain's real strategy is aimed NOT at voters, but at the apparachik?


Posted by: scrivener50 | October 15, 2008 11:33 AM | Report abuse

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