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WaPo-ABC Track: Early Birds for Obama

By Jon Cohen and Jennifer Agiesta
More than twelve million voters have already cast ballots in the presidential contest, according to one estimate, and new data from the Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll shows these voters breaking Democratic by a wide margin.

Among those who said they have already voted at an early voting location or sent in an absentee ballot, Barack Obama picked up 60 percent of the vote in the new poll to John McCain's 39 percent.

These voters make up 9 percent of "likely" voters in the track.

The senator from Illinois has a similar lead, 58 to 39 percent, among those who plan to vote early but have not yet. (Those who plan to vote on Election Day also go for Obama, but by a narrower, 51 to 45 percent.)

These early voting numbers are a near mirror-image of those from the last two elections: A paper using the National Annenberg Election Study reports that George W. Bush scored 62 percent of early voters in 2000 and 60 percent of them in 2004.

Read more about polling at Behind the Numbers»

By Web Politics Editor  |  October 28, 2008; 9:11 AM ET
Categories:  Battlegrounds , The Pollster  
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Comments

OBAMA’S MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT - $1200

McCAIN’S MIDDLE CLASS TAX CUT - $300 + LOWER

CORPORATE TAXES FOR BUSINESES CREATING
MIDDLE CLASS JOBS

LET’S SEE- $1200 CHECK VS $300 CHECK+JOB

hmmmmm, what a dilemma…

Posted by: thecannula | October 28, 2008 1:53 PM | Report abuse

Timmerman- yeah, I think we all know how honest and even handed he is. Lynette Long was in an article in the Post and it seems pretty clear she is a shill for the Republicans. The fact that she is a psychologist mean nothing to me- she can be just as crazy and out of touch as anyone else. No serious Hillary supporter would go for Palin- "because she is a woman". By that standard, we could elect Britney, Paris or Madonna.

Posted by: silverspring25 | October 28, 2008 11:32 AM | Report abuse

The McCain trolls pretending to be Hillary supporters are way off of base. I live in Iowa and have been active in Democratic politics for over 40 years. We had around 240,000 people at our caucuses and these were real people-- you count the body, not the vote , who had to sign in. In my County we had almost 15,000 people which was almost three times as much as the prior caucus. Hillary is now campaigning hard for Obama and I am aware of many of her very strong supporters here in Iowa doing the same.They are also very much upset about the Palin nomination as she does not stand with Hillary on very many issues and was seen as a pander both to the Republican hard right and to a sexist notion that women will vote for a woman just because of her gender and not take into consideration issue positions and past experience. Newsmax is about as fair and balanced as Fox so I wouldn't consider it a legitimate source of information.

Posted by: ejgallagher1 | October 28, 2008 11:05 AM | Report abuse

The McCain trolls pretending to be Hillary supporters are way off of base. I live in Iowa and have been active in Democratic politics for over 40 years. We had around 240,000 people at our caucuses and these were real people-- you count the body, not the vote , who had to sign in. In my County we had almost 15,000 people which was almost three times as much as the prior caucus. Hillary is now campaigning hard for Obama and I am aware of many of her very strong supporters here in Iowa doing the same.They are also very much upset about the Palin nomination as she does not stand with Hillary on very many issues and was seen as a pander both to the Republican hard right and to a sexist notion that women will vote for a woman just because of her gender and not take into consideration issue positions and past experience. Newsmax is about as fair and balanced as Fox so I wouldn't consider it a legitimate source of informaton.

Posted by: ejgallagher1 | October 28, 2008 11:03 AM | Report abuse

The Post has already revealed how its statistics are corrupt numbers: it is counting those who have already voted in the "likely to vote" column.

If the post is not weighting those votes already cast as being 100 percent likely, and applying a different weighting to those who are otherwise "likely" to vote but who have not voted yet, it's unnecessarily corrupting the data with an inapt weighting system.

Too cheap to update the forms for already-voted?

If the tracking polls want to be really accurate going into election day, they're going to have to distinguish between the abnormally large pool of "already voted" this year.

Posted by: AsperGirl | October 28, 2008 10:18 AM | Report abuse


GLARING FACT:

IF (and big if) the Dems were in some way responsible for some legislature that ameliorated the current economic melt down then THE REPUBLICANS HELD THE PRESIDENCY AND CONGRESS FOR SIX FULL YEARS AND THE PRESIDENCY FOR EIGHT YEARS BUT DIDN'T DO SQUAT TO FIX IT! NO ALARMS, NO WARNINGS! NOTHING!

What did we hear? "WAR ON TERROR". They're coming to get ya'...BOOGA BOOGA BOOGA!

Republicans had the chance but didn't because either they were TOO INCOMPETENT or TOO APATHETIC

Either way, Republicans DON'T DESERVE ANOTHER CHANCE.


NOV 4 VOTE OBAMA '08...he ain't perfect but he ain't Republican and that's all that counts.

Posted by: thenotoriousflavio | October 28, 2008 10:16 AM | Report abuse

Judicial Watch President Tom Fitton said, “While the evidence suggests illegal foreign contributions are flooding into Obama's campaign coffers, we have no idea as to the extent of the problem because Senator Obama refuses to divulge the names of all of his donors.”

Fitton said that, when Obama campaign spokesman David Axelrod was asked about the decision to keep these donor names secret, he replied, “We’re probably more forthcoming about disclosure than anyone.”

But the president of the watchdog group countered: “Not true. While John McCain has had problems of his own for allegedly accepting foreign donations, to his credit, Senator McCain does publish the names of all donors to his presidential campaign on his Internet site, regardless of the size of the contribution.”

Fitton said he believes that the Obama campaign appears to be playing fast and loose with campaign finance laws, and he said it has to stop.

The FEC should investigate these allegations immediately, and the Obama campaign should publicly list the source of every single campaign contribution, Fitton said.

“Frankly, it is suspicious that these names have not already been made public,” he said. “There is something deeply unsettling about the fact that foreign nationals can so easily corrupt our presidential election through illegal contributions, while American service men and women stationed overseas may be deprived of the opportunity to even vote.”

Posted by: thejaner | October 28, 2008 10:13 AM | Report abuse

McCain may have found his message - but it is too little to late. .....................


http://thefiresidepost.com/2008/10/27/mccain-has-found-his-voice-but-it-is-too-late/

Posted by: glclark4750 | October 28, 2008 10:09 AM | Report abuse

WP, CNN,MSNBC,NYT----all working hard for BO, but all of us who supported HRC are not buying it.


Hillary Backers Decry Massive Obama Vote Fraud

Monday, October 27, 2008 10:45 AM

By: Kenneth R. Timmerman Article Font Size

With accusations of voter registration fraud swirling as early voting begins in many states, some Hillary Clinton supporters are saying: “I told you so.”

Already in Iowa, the Obama campaign was breaking the rules, busing in supporters from neighboring states to vote illegally in the first contest in the primaries and physically intimidating Hillary supporters, they say.

Obama’s surprisingly strong win in Iowa, which defied all the polls, propelled his upstart candidacy to front-runner status. But Lynette Long, a Hillary supporter from Bethesda, Md., who has a long and respected academic career, believes Obama’s victory in Iowa and in 12 other caucus states was no miracle. “It was fraud,” she told Newsmax.

Long has spent several months studying the caucus and primary results.

http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/obama_voter_fraud/2008/10/27/144303.html?promo_code=2A89-1

Posted by: thejaner | October 28, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

McCain/Palin voters will stay home in droves on election day. They don't want any more of the guilt and shame they experience already for having brought Bush Cheney down on the people of this country and the world. If they leave the vote to Obama fans they can feel smug about the struggles their prior voting mistake has forced on him and his supporters. Thanks for nothing Bush/Cheney voters. Please stay home this time...and feel good about it.

Posted by: shrink2 | October 28, 2008 9:22 AM | Report abuse

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