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Karl Rove Predicts Obama Blowout

By Dan Eggen
The architect is not optimistic.

Karl Rove, who is widely credited as the mastermind behind President Bush's election victories in 2000 and 2004, predicts that Democratic nominee Barack Obama will win Tuesday's election with 338 electoral votes while Republican John McCain garners 200. The forecast puts Rove at the higher end of predictions for an Obama victory, even with several of the closest states being awarded to McCain.

According to the final 2008 polling map posted on the Rove & Co. website, Obama will take a wide swath of tossup and red states, including Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. The former Bush political adviser predicts McCain will hold on to North Carolina, Florida, Missouri and his home state of Arizona. Obama, according to the Rove map, will win easily by 10 points in Pennsylvania, where McCain has poured significant resources and campaign time.

Many of Obama's victories in red states will be won by 5 points or more, according to Rove's map, including Ohio (5 percent); Virginia (7 percent); Colorado (6 percent) and Nevada (7 percent). Several of McCain's wins will be nail-biters by comparison, including Indiana (1 percent) and Missouri and North Carolina (less than 1 percent each).

As recently as mid-October, Rove had said that Obama had not yet "closed the sale" with voters. On Fox News Sunday, Rove acknowledged that McCain has a "very steep uphill climb," but also said that "right now people are playing the game of sort of trying to settle the race before it's over."

"In the close states, the last poll that matters is the one in which everybody gets to cast their ballot and not wait for the phone solicitor," Rove said.

By Web Politics Editor  |  November 3, 2008; 8:11 PM ET
Categories:  B_Blog , Barack Obama  
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PLEASE PEOPLE! Don't listen to Karl Rove. This is an attempt by Karl Rove to get Obama voters to stay home, especially on the West coast. Get out and vote no matter what! Remember what Barack has been telling us. Don't take anything for granted. Don't ASSUME he will win just because Karl Rove puts out a report. Barack needs your vote. Get out and cast your vote for Barack Obama if you want to assure that he wins. Don't let anything, not even a "positive" report from Karl Rove, or any Republican, keep you from casting your vote!

Posted by: drcollier | November 4, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

What is Karl Rove up to? I don't trust him to make a prediction like that without some ulterior motive that serves him or the Republican party.

Posted by: CNY-DC | November 4, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

correction: as his running MATE

Posted by: Shelbysez | November 4, 2008 12:05 PM | Report abuse

"I hope John mccain don't concede after he loose. He already made a fool of himself picking palin, lets see how low can he go. He reputation is already ruined.
Posted by: r4147824 | November 4, 2008 7:01 AM"

Agreed. Picking Sarah Palin as his running was McCain's biggest political test and blunder!

Posted by: Shelbysez | November 4, 2008 12:02 PM | Report abuse

It will be a landslide for both parties... Obama wins popular vote with huge margins in NY, CA, IL... McCains will electoral vote keeping almost all red states except NM and IA, but adding PA... With all the info about obama that the msm has been suppressing for so long finally coming out, it's amazing how many great ads could be made to coal states, to jewish and christian zionists, to free market capitalists, to defenders of the constitution ...oh and palin is cleared... Don't you kind of wish the MSM had properly vetted their candidate before anointing him?
I was on Hugh Hewitt discussing my phone call with Obama's buddy Rashid Khalidi the other day and posted it at my blog... For more on my phone call and more on why and how there will be a landslide for both candidates go to my blog...

Posted by: bazznewzz | November 4, 2008 10:41 AM | Report abuse

Ahhh, Cycles! Changes. Seasons.

In a way I guess it is what keeps life interesting-Or, in MY case;


With the reign of Socialism upon us, it is like Tides Changing!


Ebb Tide coming FAST!

Posted by: SAINT---The | November 4, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Karl Rove?! Is he even still revelant?!

Forget Karl Rove! He was not singing this "338 electoral college victory for Obama" tune until now.

Now all the Obama haters (i.e. Karl Rove, Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and others) are trying to save face by "portraying" that predict an Obama "blowout" victory.

Give me a break.

Obama/Biden in 08!

Posted by: AJ2008 | November 4, 2008 9:39 AM | Report abuse

Even assuming an Obama blowout, McCain should NOT concede today, regroup and see if election fraud happened. Keep ALL legal options open.

Posted by: JakeD | November 4, 2008 6:52 AM | Report abuse

isnt it suprising that the same folks who ridiculed gore/lieberman in 2000 are now suggesting their candidate do the same. can we call mccain sore loserman too? need to go to the supreme court on this one too. if obama take 300 plus electoral votes you still gonna complain about voter fraud? you're a joke.

Posted by: dcsportsfan1 | November 4, 2008 8:50 AM | Report abuse

I hope John mccain don't concede after he loose. He already made a fool of himself picking palin, lets see how low can he go. He reputation is already ruined.

Posted by: r4147824 | November 4, 2008 7:01 AM | Report abuse

Even assuming an Obama blowout, McCain should NOT concede today, regroup and see if election fraud happened. Keep ALL legal options open.

Posted by: JakeD | November 4, 2008 6:52 AM | Report abuse

To all you so called conservatives stop listening to limbaugh hannity, savage, and all the other rich crazy pundits. They are responsible for this ass kicking mccain is about to receive.

Posted by: r4147824 | November 4, 2008 6:49 AM | Report abuse

Notice that Rove gives the coin-toss states, North Carolina and Missouri, to McCain. Obama's lead in electoral votes could increase over Rove's prediction if those coins land with the other sides up. And Rove shows McCain winning North Dakota and Indiana by just one percent, so those states may be in Obama's reach, especially if Obama's organization produces higher turnout than the pollsters expected, as I think it will.

Posted by: pundito | November 4, 2008 4:16 AM | Report abuse

Toritto-Hate to sound like I have thrown in the towel, but aside from trying to enlighten the Messiah's masses;

I guess I have!

Yes, Sarah as a back-up to a 72 Year Old was simply:


It is, IMO-Over!

The Windfall Obama is going to now get with the "Sympathy" Vote, will be insurmountable, even with Karl's attempts at "Reverse Psych"!

The Republicans do need to seriously need to REALIZE the Polarity Basics.

Capitalism Vs. Socialism.

THAT, is what came out TOO late!

The Tide is going to be getting re-enforced with all the Rip-Currents that will be developing all over Central and South America when the Capitalist Righters try their re-assertion!

What is needed, is Intelligence, and Frank Reality-Not Ignorant WASP Dogma!

Example: The Insipid "War on Drugs"

First, WHO, I mean who the F', do WE think we are, telling any other sovereign Nation, what they are allowed to do inside THEIR Borders!

I doubt it ever even occurred to the Average WASP, what Muslim Nations think of our Hollyweird, or, Alcohol Producers!

The ONLY Reason Bolivia, Colombia, Chile and Peru have Markets for their Illicit Products, is the rest of the World's DEMAND for them!

Should Budweiser now be shut down because Sa'udi Arabia objects?

TAX the Products! Produce them HERE! Under CONTROLS! Take AWAY the Opportunistic and dangerous Markets that have corrupted so many THOUSANDS of our Youth!

There is a BETTER way! A "CAPITALISTIC" Way!

Give American Farmers and Businessmen a Chance!

I can go on and on and on...

Capitalism, is about to become the rallying cry!

My Man: Mitt Romney,

IS a Venture Capitalist by Proclamation!

Yeah, it is time to re-group!

Posted by: SAINT---The | November 3, 2008 11:35 PM | Report abuse


Thanks for posting your blog. I am so happy now. I live in nashville, but have family in rolla mo. I think
Barack win mo too.

Posted by: r4147824 | November 3, 2008 11:35 PM | Report abuse

Pittsburgh Tribune-Review 11/3/08

Ridge: Steelers and McCain will win
From a rally right outside of Pittsburgh this afternoon, former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge said that the pundits will wake up two days in row having been wrong, because both the Pittsburgh Steelers and John McCain will win. Experts in sports and politics have both counted the Steelers out of winning the Monday Night Football game this evening against the Washington Redskins and (have) McCain losing...


Update 23-6 Steelers with 8 minute to go in the 4th quarter!
Ridge is Right- Go McCain!

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 11:25 PM | Report abuse

Rove bush and cheney are laughing at mccain. He voted against the leahy amendment 3292 to stop war profiteering. He even opposed the jim web gi bill. torture is something he understand because he went thru it and know it don't work, in the end mccain sided with bush.

Posted by: r4147824 | November 3, 2008 11:20 PM | Report abuse

Toritto: I agree, but who is that person?
Maybe Ron Paul.........but surely not McCain

Posted by: dlcomeau | November 3, 2008 11:17 PM | Report abuse

Karl Rove?
I smell a rat.

If Barak Obama runs the country as well as his campaign, we will have a successful 8 years like never seen before. Obama surrounds himself with brilliant, organized minds. Yet he commands respect as a leader. He told Gen. Patreus that he will consider Patreus' opinion, but that as president, he will make the decisions. This much unlike Bush who told Petreus to do whatever he wanted. Obama will make a great leader. He exudes self confidence.

Posted by: repnowdemnotgoinback | November 3, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse

A lot of people on the right respect karl rove, and will stay home or vote for bob barr in protest. Dick cheney did not do mccain any favors by rearing his ugly mug. I think bush, rove, and cheney hate John Mccain, and want him to lose.

Posted by: r4147824 | November 3, 2008 11:03 PM | Report abuse

How is it that both Obama and McCain are listed as taking Florida?

Posted by: ericinPA | November 3, 2008 10:34 PM | Report abuse



Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 10:32 PM | Report abuse

Visit Rove has actually threatened Mike Connel's wife if Connel doesn't take the complete fall by himself for republican election fraud.

Posted by: rooster54 | November 3, 2008 10:25 PM | Report abuse

Dear Voters,

The republicans are making robo-calls all over Missouri and people aren't listening. They have become fodder for jokes and disdain for the republicans negative approach. The McCainanites don't have a real ground effort here because they don't have any volunteers. I predict that 15% of registered republican voters being polled won't even vote, they are so disheartened by McCain.
The Republican mayor in my small town is voting Obama, as are two of the primary Bush campaign volunteers here from 2004. Meanwhile, the Obama folks are visible door to door and have an office set up that is bustling with volunteers. All the Obama calls are live from local people talking to their neighbors.
Missouri belongs to Obama. Rove is wrong...again. This time (like 2006) in predicting the extent of republican loses. So add 11 points to his prediction = 349 Obama.

Posted by: fishingriver | November 3, 2008 10:21 PM | Report abuse

Good chance Rove will be wrong about Missouri. During the last two weeks, about 250,000 people attended an Obama rally.

Saturday night 40,000 people saw Obama in Springfield, MO, the reddest area of MO.

See the Missouri Rednecks for Obama. They have received national recognition.

Posted by: JimWalsh1 | November 3, 2008 10:19 PM | Report abuse

The republicans are desperate. Beware of their games... very clever...
I was a republican and had to seriously consider McCain. The only thing about McCain that stood out was his Viet Nam experience. That was it and nothing more. Then I remembered all the young men I knew during the Viet Nam war who were also taken prisoner and tortured, some of them never coming home. I realized that the only reason McCain was being memorialized for his imprisonment is because he had a father who was a high ranking officer. It is not fair, nor proper, to treat McCain as if his experience was any different from anyone elses during that time. The difference may be that most average boys who came home crippled, mamed, tortured, didn't have the money to buy themselves good care. I respect all the men who served their country during that time. But I don't think any one of them should be handed the presidency just because of that experience. We need someone from a new school, to bring this country and the world into the 21st century, to bring respect back. Someone who can surround him/herself with brilliant minds to tackle the countless problems we are now facing.
This person would be Barak Obama.
Don't hesitate.
Vote tomorrow.

Posted by: repnowdemnotgoinback | November 3, 2008 10:08 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 9:09 PM |

This post says that even though McCain has proven that he can't manage a campaign, has no god ideas and has chosen someone who is unfit to be VP, to vote for McCain to prove something to Olberman and Cafferty.

If you value you vote use it more intelligently than thecannula would. Vote for someone who has shown that he can be an excutive of a campaign which is efficiently run and receives the support of Americans like Colin Powell, Paul Volcker and Susan Eisenhower to mention a few. Resist the temptation to support the erratic Mr McCain simply because he reminds you of yourself. A man who did not have the judgment or the patriotism to choose a qualified vice presidential candidate does not deserve your vote.

Posted by: Gator-ron | November 3, 2008 10:04 PM | Report abuse

@Saint: Yes, but without Bush/McCain ruining our country. The rest is worth it.

Posted by: icantstandit | November 3, 2008 9:59 PM | Report abuse

(Pjkiger- Pennsylvania's the key to a McCain victory- if he wins it, watch out- we'll see how much Obama's targeting of coal matters- no early voting in Pa.)
on that note-

November 3rd, 2008 12:39 PM Eastern
I’ll Say It Again, This Election Will Be Closer Than They Think.

Polls understandably tempt journalists to suggest the race has been “clinched” by Senator Obama (as John King did recently did on CNN). — I hope such predictions won’t affect anyone’s interest in voting.

Here are my reasons for believing the race will be closer than these polls indicate:

1) According to varied professional sources with whom I have spoken, there exists a proportionally high number of potential voters who are refusing to be polled or express their opinion publicly. In a historic, high-octane race like 2008, I believe there are more reasons for a McCain supporter to stay silent than for an Obama supporter. It is understandable to imagine McCain supporters fearing labels such as “racist,” “homophobe,” “single-issue-voter,” “warmonger,” or “against change,” even if the voter is none of these.

2) Similarly, pollsters have reported higher than usual numbers of undecided voters or voters still capable of changing their minds. People know Senator McCain. Do they know Senator Obama well enough to break for him this late in the game?

3) Most importantly, in 2004, pollsters were caught by surprise by the amount of voters who left the polls saying “social issues” were most influential in determining their vote. In 2008, the media has been mostly silent on these causes, focusing instead on the economy and Iraq. This focus ignores an important reality. The “Value Voters” block of mostly Evangelicals and a good percentage of conservative Catholics and others, may indeed be wrapped up in these urgent headlines, but there is no convincing data to suggest they have inverted their voting priorities, turning away from abortion, traditional marriage, limited government, etc. If Senator Kerry’s policy proposals were enough to get this voting block to the booth, Senator Obama’s policies should bring them out in droves.

So there you have my November 3rd take.

And if I’m right and the vote is close in 2008, when the Democratic Party has every political reason to wipe out the Republicans, it will mean our country rejects major elements of Senator Obama’s plan to revolutionize important American values, beginning with the right to life. Then the Democratic Party may see the benefit of freeing itself from the stranglehold of the culture of death, forced upon it by extreme, and extremely powerful, interest groups. What a relief it would be for “Values Voters” to have a viable alternative to the very imperfect Republican Party.

And what is your November 3rd prediction?

God bless,

Father Jonathan

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 9:55 PM | Report abuse

TheCannula: To look at it another way, the Fox/Rasmussen polls show Obama with 51 percent of the vote in both Virginia and Colorado. That means there aren't enough undecideds left for McCain to catch up. Obama only has to win one of them to become President. Additionally, Fox's final national poll shows Obama up by 7.

Posted by: pjkiger1 | November 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Report abuse

Please make sure to VOTE for OBAMA. Don't take Rove's "blowout" theory without the real motive behind it.

To state the obvious, for every missed Obama vote that's one more for McCain!

Posted by: nomorepublican | November 3, 2008 9:41 PM | Report abuse

What happens when republicans screw around with politics? They get political herpes. Nobody except the insane want to claim Republican.

Posted by: DixieWrecked | November 3, 2008 9:38 PM | Report abuse

That any attention is paid to Rove after the 2006 massive lose by the Repugs, is surprising.

I recall how upset the commander in chimp was and the nasty attitude he displayed towards Rove. It was one of my first happy election days in six years.

Maybe if we all ignore him, he'll languish and exist solely on Faux Noise preaching to the choir.

There is nothing those who have been in the spotlight hate more than being ignored.

Posted by: Tom_Payed | November 3, 2008 9:18 PM | Report abuse

Yup. The ole National Republican Trust is running the same ole Rev. Wright ads here in Florida.

Too little. Too late. 30% of the vote is already in.


Obama! 08!

Posted by: toritto | November 3, 2008 9:11 PM | Report abuse

Message from The National Republican Trust PAC
From Scott Wheeler

Dear Supporter:

The latest battleground poll from Fox News is out Monday afternoon for the key battleground states and it shows McCain is leading in Florida and North Carolina, tied in Ohio and Missouri and behind just a little in Colorado and Virginia. This is so close — McCain can win!

We here at the National Republican Trust PAC ( are targeting these battleground states for a McCain win.

As you can tell from the numbers, the election is in critical mode and any one of these state may make the difference in defeating Barack Obama.
Please Go Vote Tomorrow!

Let's Prove Jack Cafferty and Keith Olberman Can't Intimidate Us!

McCain/Palin 2008

Posted by: thecannula | November 3, 2008 9:09 PM | Report abuse

Turdblossom is full of crap, as rbyanes says (above), but not for the reason given. He is doing what he can to ensure that Obama supporters stay away from the polls in the belief that their votes are not needed.

Rove, the latest in a line of cynics who do everything they can to pervert the system, should be assigned to investigate the KZ Lager at Guantánamo, from the inside, for the next 30 years.

Posted by: hesthe | November 3, 2008 9:00 PM | Report abuse

Saint: I agree Romney would have been a stronger candidate especially after the financial meltdown.

I do think the kiss of death for McCain was his choice of Sarah Pallin. After all he is 72 and too mnay independents didn't want to risk her in the Presidency.

McCain got the nomination, in my opinion, because the GOP was running 4 "name" candidates - McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Huckabee. The rapture crowd was supporting the Huck and would have had problems with a Mormon.

The voters split, Giuliani bombed and McCain won the nomination with a plurality but not a majority of Republican votes.

Hey just remember - four years after Goldwater was buried, Nixon was President.

The nation needs a strong viable center-right Republican Party - build one!!

Posted by: toritto | November 3, 2008 9:00 PM | Report abuse

Predictions for my GOP friends; I’m thinking Obama >330. By 2000hrs EST I predict you will be crying into your beer. You’ll blame the MSM, you’ll blame ACORN, you’ll claim Obama stole the election. But here’s the truth, you are pretty much intellectually and ideological equal to Joe the Plumber; meaning you are mouth breathing knuckle dragging idiot. Instead of having the integrity to realize that the problem with conservatism is YOU - you and your friends will point fingers, devise various loyalty tests, resulting in many entertaining pogroms and purges, until all that is left is a White Nationalist party. Enjoy your long lonely night in the wilderness! Palin 2012!

Posted by: HeavyD1 | November 3, 2008 8:57 PM | Report abuse


I can say ALL of that in just two Words!

A Name!

Of a Person who was exactly what this Country needed(As can be viewed at his;

AND, would have given his Salary to Charity-Just like he did as a Governor!

Mitt Romney!

IF, we are both around in 2012, I'll still be carrying HIS Torch!

HE has displayed remarkable integrity, and tolerance despite, the un-believable ignorance of so many people in this Country, and around him!

My suspicion: HE just knew Bushie had DESTROYED the Terrain too BADLY!

However, I REALLY think, he might have over-estimated the Dimocrats!

Tomorrow, could have been won!

Posted by: SAINT---The | November 3, 2008 8:41 PM | Report abuse

According to the exit polls in 2004, John Kerry won. Obviously that didn't happen.I wouldn't count those chickens just yet! Or to paraphrase Reverend Wright, they haven't come home to roost just yet! Let's wait and see what happens tomorrow. Maybe we won't have to be the Socialist States of America after all?

Posted by: sdabbs55 | November 3, 2008 8:41 PM | Report abuse

Karl Rove is, once again, full of crap. He ran Obama's numbers higher so his story the following day will be how Obama disappointed. Don't get me wrong, I think Obama will win, but not with this margin. Rove's move is to marginalize Obama's win after by saying he underperformed. Yep, underperformed like Rove does everytime he gets his freak on at home.

Posted by: rbyanes | November 3, 2008 8:34 PM | Report abuse

Karl Rove, new Fox News Commentator

Posted by: UsedToBeGOP | November 3, 2008 8:23 PM | Report abuse

Oh come on saint! Don't get depressed!

Rebuild your party! Here's your platform:

1. We will defend the United States and the Constitution against all enemies.

2. We will be careful stewards of your money and control spending.

3. We will not tell you how to live your life.

4. All are welcome in our tent.

You really should marginalized the neo-fascists, crackpots, extremists and those waiting for the rapture. They will vote for you anyway.

Rebuild the center-right, fiscally conservative, socially moderate coalition that the GOP used to be.

America will respond.

Oh....and you may have to tone down your own rhetoric.


Posted by: toritto | November 3, 2008 8:22 PM | Report abuse

I'll wait for the results to come in before I'd ever take the word of the King of the Trolls himself. Even if it is predicting an Obama-Biden victory. It's akin to Satan himself blessing you. Something you'd just rather not be a party to.

Posted by: wes1155 | November 3, 2008 8:17 PM | Report abuse

Joy! :-(

Looks like the next F O U R L O N G Years, are going to be with a Congress gone wild, and a President being "Present"! ;~)

Posted by: SAINT---The | November 3, 2008 8:15 PM | Report abuse

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