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In Va. Primary, Message and Momentum Trumped Money

By Ben Pershing
Well that wasn't close at all, was it? After a grueling but mostly civil campaign, Creigh Deeds pummelled Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran for Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial nomination yesterday, triggering a fascinating general election race and a wide range of opinion on how exactly McAuliffe could fall from frontrunner to afterthought so quickly.

What are the lessons from this race? Patrick Ruffini writes: "In the modern campaign, early money and establishment support matters far, far less than it used to, and could actually turn out to be a handicap -- particularly when money becomes the story." He adds, "As a campaign manager, I'd much, much rather be running the guy with a message and no money versus the guy with money and no message." Guess which one McAuliffe was? The Fix opines that "the critical moment ... when things started to move for Deeds" was when the Washington Post endorsed him. Hooray for the ascendant power of newspapers! Maybe we'll all get raises.

Blogging before the full results were clear last night, Nate Silver wrote, "This really is looking like a collapse of Howard Dean in Iowa proportions for McAuliffe; he had the lead just two weeks ago and now he's about to lose by 20+ points." In the same post, Ed Kilgore noted "the highly-organized Moran and McAuliffe GOTV efforts missed most of their marks," raising the question of whether massive voter-mobilization programs are really the path to victory in low-turnout primaries. Daily Kos points out "one incredible measure of Deeds' victory tonight -- he wound up sweeping 10 of the 11 Congressional Districts, including Jim Moran's 8th district, where he edged Brian Moran by three points." Looking ahead to Deeds' contest against Bob McDonnell, Politico says the race will "be a test of whether the political tide that swept in a Democratic congressional majority in 2006 and gave Barack Obama the presidency in 2008 still retains its power." It will also be a test of the legacy of Tim Kaine, who will surely bring the full weight of the DNC to bear in November.

Continue reading at Political Browser »

By Ben Pershing  |  June 10, 2009; 8:27 AM ET
Categories:  The Rundown  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: POTUS Events
Next: Obama 'Shocked and Saddened' by News of Shooting at Holocaust Museum

Comments

What hope does any Republican have to get elected if they can not create a superfluous hot button issue and stay away from policy because on policy they have no solutions to problems.

Posted by: Gator-ron | June 10, 2009 8:58 PM | Report abuse

to view a partial list of crimes committed by FBI agents over 1500 pages long see
http://www.forums.signonsandiego.com/showthread.php?t=59139

to view a partial list of FBI agents arrested for pedophilia see
http://www.dallasnews.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=3574

Posted by: mabumford | June 10, 2009 8:23 PM | Report abuse

scrivener50:

Jesus said He was "the Way, the Truth, and the Life" (John 14:6). Not everyone who says that to you is stalk[ing] and harass[ing] you.

Posted by: JakeD | June 10, 2009 3:33 PM | Report abuse

Holocaust Museum Shooting: A Symptom of Federal "Benign Neglect"?


AS A HATE CRIME VICTIM, I AM NOT SURPRISED.

WHY WON'T THE FBI OPEN A CIVIL RIGHTS PROBE INTO GOVERNMENT-ENABLED VIGILANTISM AIMED AT JEWS AND OTHER MINORITIES?


This writer has been stalked and harassed by persons who have uttered to my face the phrase, "Jesus is the way." That's just the tip of the iceberg, as inquisitive readers of WaPo political blogs may know.

Yet the FBI refuses to open a civil rights investigation -- a probe that I have requested in repeated personal visits to FBI's Philadelphia office over the past two years.

Vigilante neo-Nazis are stalking, harassing and torturing unjustly "targeted" Americans -- in Bucks County, PA, on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, in D.C. and its suburbs -- and in communities across America.

They think they are above the law. Could that be because certain powerful, secretive federal agencies knowingly countenance vigilantism in America -- and refuse to investigate credible complaints of harassment and worse that appears to be in part ethnically-based?

What is the role of a secretive federal "multi-agency coordinated action program" in fueling this hate machine?


READ ABOUT "GESTAPO USA" HERE:

http://nowpublic.com/world/gestapo-usa-govt-funded-vigilante-network-terrorizes-america

OR if link is corrupted / disabled):

http://NowPublic.com/scrivener

Posted by: scrivener50 | June 10, 2009 3:07 PM | Report abuse

Kudos to VA Demos for electing a Native son over the "Carpet Baggedr," McAuliffe." His ilk and their deep pockets seem to feel they are owed a political victory wherever they decide to land.

Onward to a Demo victory in November!

Posted by: fgerard | June 10, 2009 1:31 PM | Report abuse

Virgina Democrats dodged a bullet by not having Terry McAuliffe as their gubernatorial nominee although the money he would have spent trying to get elected might have been a stimilus to political consultants in the state.

Posted by: danielhancock | June 10, 2009 12:19 PM | Report abuse

And Pershing, you can blow the WaPo's horn if you want, but know this: the WaPo's endorsement of Deeds was a HUGE negative for me and my entire family. I seriously considered not voting at all when I heard that news. I know you media types all think you're the conscience of the people, but puhleeeze, give me a break. What complete drivel. RJ14 is right.

Posted by: flintston | June 10, 2009 11:19 AM | Report abuse

More punditry from the dinosaur paper media. It doesn't have anything to do with "Message" or "media" in this case, it was the transparent arrogance of McAuliffe believing that Va was a suburb of DC and that qualified him to run in the first place.

People want Candidates with strong ties to the state that go back preferably for decades when voting for the most important offices. The least McAuliffe could have done is run for a less important office like Lt. Gov. but no, he wanted to go straight to the Gov. mansion. Just another flaming Liberal carpetbagger only more arrogant.

Posted by: RJ14 | June 10, 2009 10:04 AM | Report abuse

More punditry from the dinosaur paper media. It doesn't have anything to do with "Message" or "media" in this case, it was the transparent arrogance of McAuliffe believing that Va was a suburb of DC and that qualified him to run in the first place.

People want Candidates with strong ties to the state that go back preferably for decades when voting for the most important offices. The least McAuliffe could have done is run for a less important office like Lt. Gov. but no, he wanted to go straight to the Gov. mansion. Just another flaming Liberal carpetbagger only more arrogant.

Posted by: RJ14 | June 10, 2009 9:21 AM | Report abuse

That a money-grubbing lying scumbag carpetbagger and a hyper-liberal Kennedy-ite were stomped..STOMPED..yesterday, shouldn't come as a surprise. Virginians are a little smarter than that guys. With that I offer these farewells:
to Brian The Most Doofus Moron, told you so pal. You don't pull the crap that you pulled on your constituents and expect to get re-elected. I suggest you stick to ambulance-chasing.
to Terry, since you enjoy the view there so much, pack your bags and go re-stuff your head up the Clintons' behinds.

Posted by: flintston | June 10, 2009 8:54 AM | Report abuse

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