The Trail: A Daily Diary of Campaign 2008



Bush economist: Jobs 'created or saved' figure touted by Obama is meaningless

By Frank Ahrens
Ed Lazear was the top economic adviser to President George W. Bush and much more of a free-marketer than the president, who ran up massive budget deficits.

In an opinion piece in today's Wall Street Journal, which you can read by clicking here, Lazear argues that the "jobs created or saved" figure touted by the Obama administration, thanks to the $787 billion stimulus, is meaningless.

His point: Reporting bias is typically at the heart of such claims, making the figures untrustworthy. He writes:

Recipients have strong incentives to inflate their reported numbers. In a race for federal dollars, contractors may assume that the programs that show the most job creation may be favored by the government when it allocates additional stimulus funds.

No dishonesty on the part of recipients is implied or required. But when a hire conceivably can be classified as resulting from the stimulus money, recipients have every incentive to classify the hire as such. Classification as stimulus-induced is even more likely if a respondent must only say that, except for the money, an employee would have been fired. In this case, no hiring need occur at all.

It's a good point. He argues that the administration is taking claims for only its gains yielded by the stimulus, not the negative impacts. For instance: The Cash for Clunkers program incentivized the purchase of small, fuel-sipping cars but disincentivized the purchase of larger cars and trucks, such as SUVs. You can argue that's good, from a conservation point of view, but economically, it ends up being near a zero-sum gain. Fewer bigger vehicles were produced exactly because of government intervention.

Here's the paragraph that caught my eye, with my emphasis added:

This past January, at the end of my term as chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers, my agency released the White House economic forecast. At that time, I said that I foresaw a couple of bad quarters but expected that the second half of 2009 would be positive, with perhaps very strong growth in 2010. These forecasts assumed no stimulus; the projected turnaround was instead based on the natural rebound of the economy that would come after the financial crisis had eased.

Wow. That means Lazear forecast a return to positive GDP -- which happened last week -- without the $787 billion stimulus spending, which added dangerously to the deficit and debt.

Read more on the economy at Economy Watch»

Posted at 12:01 PM ET on Nov 2, 2009  | Category:  Economy
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Please email us to report offensive comments.

So the firefighters, police officers and teachers who weren't cut should think their jobs are meaningless.

Thanks "swifty".

Posted by: JohnQuimby | November 2, 2009 10:27 PM

Bush and economist, now that is an oxymoron:))..Give me a break!!!..

Posted by: ruraledcomm | November 2, 2009 9:56 PM

Here is a title for Bush's economic adviser,

"Creating Job Losses and Unemployment in the 21st century."

More than a million jobs lost in eight years. Bush's ability to destroy jobs is unparalleled.

Posted by: Gator-ron | November 2, 2009 7:53 PM

Too bad the guy didn't plug the Bush money drain.

Posted by: gwcox2 | November 2, 2009 6:34 PM

As soon as I read "Bush's top economic advisor" I knew I'd hit the comics.

Posted by: JRM2 | November 2, 2009 3:48 PM

Bush's chief economic advisor?


Yeah, he's REALLY got credibility!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: JRM2 | November 2, 2009 3:40 PM

obama's "created or saved"

it's like claiming the number of souls saved by a preacher.. pure BS

Posted by: tru-indy | November 2, 2009 1:41 PM

For those looking for employment right now, research is the key to landing the right job. Many publications show different categories for the best companies to work for and another good site is which has career advice, job listings and a huge database of real salaries that companies are paying for any position. You can post your own salary or view others for free.

Posted by: kaytaylor9 | November 2, 2009 1:30 PM

Add to that "good point" the PROVEN inaccuracies and outright dishonesty on the part of recipients (AP and CBS have been at the forefront of showing ZERO jobs "created or saved" for instance, in one case among many similary instances, the number reported was really the total number of students at a truck driving school who benefited from the purchase of two new trucks ; )

Posted by: JakeD | November 2, 2009 12:07 PM

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