The Return of the Space Age
This will come as an enormous shock, but I'm actually still a newspaper reporter and not just a perpetual self-indulgence machine. For several months I've been working on a story about the future of the space program, and it runs Sunday in the magazine, and on Monday I'll do a chat about it here on the site. I'll post the URL for the story tomorrow. It's a rather long piece, so you'll need elaborate life-support systems (food, water, oxygen) just to get through the whole thing. The story is about true believers, the folks who maintain the dream that our destiny is in space, that we will become a multi-planetary species. It talks about NASA, and "the Vision," and all the grand plans and grave uncertainties about the civilian space program. [FYI, a lot of the visionaries and space folks mentioned in my piece are supposed to be in town next week at a big shindig sponsored by the National Space Society.] We pegged the story for May 15 because that was the first possible launch date for the space shuttle Discovery, the "Return to Flight," but the shuttle is cooling its heels down at the Cape and won't fly until July at the earliest.
We finished the story several weeks ago and the situation at NASA is so dynamic these days that there are new developments almost daily. Check out Guy Gugliotta's piece from earlier this week about the new NASA administrator, Michael Griffin, and his plans to speed up the development of the shuttle's replacement. What is unclear is how they'll pay for a new spacecraft while still operating the shuttle and the space station. "The Vision," which is the road map produced by the White House and embraced by NASA, had both ambitious and very pragmatic elements. Ambitiously it called for a return to the moon and a mission to Mars. But it also wanted to do these things slowly, incrementally, to avoid an Apollo-style crash program that would cost a lot of money. The idea was, once you shut down the shuttle (in 2010) you've suddenly got about 5 billion dollars a year to play around with, and you can do cool stuff with it like build a new spacecraft that could take people to the moon. The catch is, for four years we wouldn't have any way to put people in orbit, and would have to go on bended knee to the Russians, asking if we could get a lift on the Soyuz. Sen. Nelson told me the four-year gap could easily become eight years. He raised the possibility that by then the Russians and the Chinese will have teamed up and frozen us out of space altogether. [But now I'm giving away my story!]
In any case, it'll be fascinating to see how this plays out. Is America really willing to fund an ambitious agenda for human spaceflight? That's the central question in Sunday's story. How much of this is for real? Bush promised that we'd have astronauts walking on the moon again by 2020, or even as early as 2015, but I have a feeling that Griffin would like to see them up there by Christmas.
By
Joel Achenbach
|
May 13, 2005; 10:40 AM ET
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Posted by: Karen B | May 13, 2005 10:51 AM | Report abuse
Interesting reaction, but I feel it is misplaced. The space program has accelerated science by leaps and bounds. Also, lot of people forget that NASA does Earth Sciences as well. And we need a vehicle to get into space, to perform many of these missions.
Have a little perspective... $5 billion is a DROP in the barrel of our budget. Before raping NASA's budget (again) why don't we look at other places to cut spending.
Posted by: Ken | May 13, 2005 11:25 AM | Report abuse
Looking forward to reading the piece, Joel.
I may have to reread Stephen Baxter's 'Voyage' afterwards. And maybe Heinlen's 'The Man Who Sold The Moon.'.
bc
Posted by: bc | May 13, 2005 11:30 AM | Report abuse
grab that knee, we shouldn't wait until we have solved all of the world's problems before we explore space.
Posted by: LB | May 13, 2005 11:34 AM | Report abuse
That's true, 5 billion dollars probably could do a lot of good here on earth. But the same is true of almost any budgetary allocation that has been earmarked for one thing versus another. Or about any of the choices we make as a society or as individuals. For example, the money spent on fertility treatments could do a lot of good if it were spent on children who have already been born but who aren't currently getting enough food, education, attention, etc. But -- understandably -- people want to have their own children. We all follow our diverse passions, whether these passions involve space travel or something more modest and earthbound. That's how things get done. It would be impossible for us to reach consensus on how best to spend our resources. Which means our dollars aren't likely to ever be used in an optimal way -- or at least not in a way that everyone on the planet would regard as optimal.
Posted by: Dreamer | May 13, 2005 11:42 AM | Report abuse
Also, in addition to Earth Sciences programs, NASA also has programs that support the transfer of technology developed for the space program into practical earth-based uses.
We learn an awful lot when we send people and things into space, and that helps us right here at home.
Posted by: RH | May 13, 2005 11:46 AM | Report abuse
And after the way Joel pointed out all of the world's problems in his Culture of Fear blog, I think he is ready to leave this planet.
Posted by: LB | May 13, 2005 11:53 AM | Report abuse
I think that part of the lack of enthusiasm for NASA these days refelects a big change in America these last 30/40-some-odd years.
The space program, from when JFK promised a man on the moon on forward, was part of a broader American vision, looking to the future with hope. Who looks to the future with hope anymore in this country?
It may take things getting a LOT worse before our interest in space travel reaches where it once was - getting to the point, say, where we start thinking about needing a new planet.
Or maybe not. I hope not. I just read, actually, a wonderful story by Carter Scholz, "The Eve of the Last Apollo," in his recent collection of stories, "The Amount to Carry." Very on-topic, and highly recommended.
Posted by: jkd | May 13, 2005 12:01 PM | Report abuse
What would any of us do with $5 billion to play with?
You gotta remember, giving the gov't $5bil. is like giving a kid $20 at the mall. They're going to run to the candy store, and buy a bunch of junk.
Posted by: Fitz | May 13, 2005 12:10 PM | Report abuse
Then again, what WOULDN'T I do with $5 bil?
And not just once; every year!
Posted by: Fitz | May 13, 2005 12:11 PM | Report abuse
I would rather see technological innovation achieved through a space program than war. People who are complaining about a mere $5 billion a year expenditure should think about the things they would be living without were it not for NASA. http://techtran.msfc.nasa.gov/at_home/forscience.html
I just hope that Bush is not showing an interest in the moon for purposes of minerals.
Posted by: bs | May 13, 2005 12:22 PM | Report abuse
Fitz, All money appropriated to NASA is used to advance modern science here on earth. Any junk that is bought there is provided by the contractors who don't really care about the scientific aspect of NASA, just the bottom line.
Posted by: gfm | May 13, 2005 12:42 PM | Report abuse
Karen, 5 billion? Lets see, 80 billion for the 'war'. How much is that per month for a year?
Posted by: gfm | May 13, 2005 12:46 PM | Report abuse
ACHENBLOG sounds like a perverted German sex act.
Posted by: ACHENBLOG THIS! | May 13, 2005 1:11 PM | Report abuse
Revival of "space program" was a curious move for current administration, I just thought it was because it would bring $$ to Houston. Cynicism aside I could care less why we go but we need to go, glad to see the aspirations are now mainstream. Space is a natural progression for American power - lets take it head-on like we the leaders we are.
Posted by: Gov.Esq. | May 13, 2005 1:14 PM | Report abuse
On the strength of this chat alone, and the pity I felt that you went all the way to PA to sell a handful of books, I ordered the _Washington's Potomac_ book from Amazon last night.
I guess that means you get another $.02 or something. Try to spend it wisely.
Posted by: Karen | May 13, 2005 1:26 PM | Report abuse
Ah. So you're the one who bought it. Mystery solved.
Posted by: Achenbach | May 13, 2005 1:35 PM | Report abuse
Hey bs-
Robert Heinlen pointed out a long time ago that the Moon could be a dandy place from which to drop rocks on people's heads (or simply threaten to). And RAH pointed out that you could do it with lunar mining equipment...
Big bangs, without most of the messy side effects of nuclear weapons.
Could the Bush adminstration not have considered that? Or the Chinese government?
Would they admit it if they did?
bc
Posted by: bc | May 13, 2005 3:37 PM | Report abuse
joel, you are lost in space.
Posted by: doug warren | May 13, 2005 4:34 PM | Report abuse
Remember the days of reading Heinlein, Bradbury, Anderson, and Clarke. (Is declining interest in science fiction an indication of advancing age?) And then all the failures we had post-Sputnik. A side issue--good old what's face (the NASA administrator in the 90's) had the mantra: Better, Faster, Cheaper. That conflicted with a mantra I learned from software development, you can only get two of the three, i.e., good, slow and cheap; bad, fast and cheap; etc. It will be interesting to see what this new guy does.
In a way, the story ties with your earlier post about security. The issue is how much risk is the U.S. willing to accept. We'll kill 40,000 people a year to have personal transportation, we'll spend hundreds of billions to increase our security against terrorists who might kill some people every few years, would we accept a high risk of failure to get back to the moon and onto Mars?
Posted by: BillH | May 13, 2005 4:46 PM | Report abuse
I just read your article "To Infinity and Beyond" . It's a great overview of spaceflight in the 2000s: Vision for Space Exploration, private space travel, grassroots organizations, and perhaps most importantly of all, the goals and dreams of ordinary people.
Kenneth Visser's anecdote was particularly touching: "He would tell his younger brother, 'I've got to do my daily astronaut training.' He demanded that his brother jump on his chest, to simulate the G-forces of a rocket launch... He felt the dream in his bones." I hope Mr Visser is encouraged by recent events like SpaceShipOne.
Regarding movie director James Cameron and astronaut Eileen Collins's comments on spaceflight and survival, I run a website featuring quotations on this very topic. It's called "Spaceflight or Extinction" . You might also be interested in reading "The top three reasons for humans in space" .
Thanks for writing the article, and I very much look forward to the Sunday magazine story.
Posted by: Michael Huang | May 14, 2005 8:55 AM | Report abuse
Sorry, the links didn't show up in the comment above. I'll try them here:
To Infinity and Beyond
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/13/AR2005051301358.html
Spaceflight or Extinction
http://www.spaext.com/
The top three reasons for humans in space
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/352/1
Posted by: Michael Huang | May 14, 2005 9:02 AM | Report abuse
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Just can't stop that knee jerk reaction that says: 5 billion dollars, imagine the good that could do here on earth.
There may be inhabitable planets out in space, but on the other hand, we've got a fixer-upper right here that could possibly be a pretty nice home for all of us someday.