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The Undecideds Decide

[Cross-posted to The Trail]

Time for some very unscientific exit polling and interviews. In recent days, a number of New Hampshire voters told us that they hadn't yet made up their minds. Now they have.

Ray Rich, 57, an independent artist and Republican from Hillsboro, said Friday at the Mike Huckabee event in Henniker that he liked Romney's stance on Social Security. But Rich turned against Romney.

"I voted for John McCain because I thought he had the best chance of beating Romney. I received countless [pre-recorded] phone calls from the Romney campaign, and the feeling I got from them was a very cold feeling. They were extremely negative, slamming other candidates. I was just so put off by that that I attempted to strategically vote to block him."

Caren Swanson, 28, a librarian in Andover, said at an Edwards rally in Lebanon Saturday that she agrees with Dennis Kucinich on most policy issues. But she thought she might vote for a more viable candidate such as Edwards or Obama. She stayed up until 1:30 a.m. this morning deliberating, and finally decided on the candidate she saw in person yesterday afternoon: Obama. She found him charismatic and able to connect with people.

"I think he could be a positive voice, bringing America together, which I think America really needs right now," she said. "There's so much bitterness from these extreme groups."

She added, "Race was also part of it for me. I'm tempted by Kucinich and Edwards, but how can I vote for a white man when I have an opportunity to vote for a woman or a person of color?... I couldn't pass up the opportunity to vote for a person who is more representative of the diversity we're living in, both in the country and in the world."

Susan Adie, 48, a registered nurse in Hudson who is an independent, said Friday night at a Romney event that she voted for Bush in 2004 and typically votes for a Republican. This year she was thinking about going for Obama. She didn't.

"It was a surprise right at the last minute, but I ended up voting for Ron Paul. The deciding factor at the last minute was that I definitely didn't want socialized medicine, so Obama was out. And Romney seems to be so out of touch about gay rights." She said she liked Ron Paul's ideas about the war, education and health care. I asked what she meant by "the last minute."

"In the booth," she said. "I had to circle one."

Judy MacHardy, a retiree in Durham, did some Obama and Clinton comparison shopping Sunday. She left Obama's rally in Exeter feeling "up, and inspired," and thought she'd probably vote for him. But Clinton blew her away at the rally in Hampton.

"She just was so knowledgeable and so in tune with the issues and so clear in her explanations. I think Obama is very inspirational, and very charismatic, more so than Hillary, but I learned more and I felt more comfortable listening to her answers."

Carol Cohen, 51, who works in sales in Bow, had been solid for Edwards after hearing him in Concord Saturday. Then she saw the news last night.

"Watching her let her strong façade crack last night on the news, and actually show how personally committed she is, was a turning point for me. When I got in the booth I spent a long time thinking about it, and I went for Hillary."

Sarah Peteraf, 20, a college student from Hanover, decided to vote absentee Monday for Obama, hoping to prevent Clinton from winning: "Basically the race was a little too tight between Obama and Hillary to vote for Edwards right now, despite my alignment with Edwards's policies."

Sharon Smith, of Rye, a social worker, was impressed when she saw Obama in Exeter, but that night she watched the cable news and eventually decided she was more comfortable with Clinton's experience.

"I don't know who Obama's people are. I know Hillary will choose good people to be with her," she said. "I was concerned about what he's going to do when the speeches are over."


By Joel Achenbach  |  January 8, 2008; 4:23 PM ET
 
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Comments

Nice of these folks to talk and explain their very personal means of making a choice.

Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | January 8, 2008 4:42 PM | Report abuse

First? After months of saying I'd vote for whoever the Democrats nominate, I watched the debate on Saturday night and decided I had a preference after all. That could change before the Virginia primary, so I'll keep it to myself. Besides, I may have to vote against a Republican in that primary if we get to a lesser of two evils situation. Right now there's a lot of momentum for Obama, but Hillary used to be the inevitable candidate, so who knows? This is shaping up to be an interesting primary season - too bad it's over by Valentine's Day.

Posted by: JR | January 8, 2008 4:43 PM | Report abuse

Now how the he11 am I expected to get any work done around here?

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 4:48 PM | Report abuse

Those kits come too fast, man.

RD, Gloria Steinem is easily debutted on her premise by looking at practical results: 35 women have been U.S. Senators, only 5 African-american senators have served, and one was a woman. 2 served right after Reconstruction, and they come from a total of 3 states (Mississippi, Massachusetts, Illinois).

There have been 122 black congressmen/women in the whole history of Congress.

I was not able to find a precise count of how many women have ever served in Congress. However: 16,7% of the current U.S Congress is female, and as many as 90 women have served in the U.S. Congress at the same time (senate--16 women, 74 in the House). The current U.S. Congress, according to Wikipedia, is only 9.2% African-American.

Steinem is correct in saying that black men got the vote well before women, but she ignores that many widows were often asked to serve out their deceased husbands' terms without the benefit of elections. They still benefitted from political connections through their marriages.

Um, I won't mention any presidental candidates by name, but I would love to see a female presidental candidate who can say that "I climbed up here by myself, not by leaning on a man."

Just sayin'. I don't think Hillary has had a career path that many female politicans could or would wish to emulate.

Posted by: Wilbrod | January 8, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Why will it be over by Valentine's Day? What about a split decision with no clear winner? Obama wins a few, Hillary wins a few, Edwards maybe wins a couple.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 4:52 PM | Report abuse

Looks over Feb. 6, thanks to the avalanche of primaries on the 5th.

Unless, of course, Florida's non-candidates to the Democratic Convention turn out to be crucial.

Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | January 8, 2008 4:55 PM | Report abuse

A convention? How passe.

Posted by: Boko999 | January 8, 2008 5:01 PM | Report abuse

But why assume the avalanche will be decisive? There's no evidence for that. It's a three-way race, and if anything, the evidence favors a three-way split. A 40-30-20 split means it ain't over. And we don't go by pluralities. If Edwards holds 15 or 25 percent and either Hillary or Obama holds, say, 40 percent, that makes Edwards the kingmaker when they go to convention. And there's NO guarantees about what happens beyond the first round of voting.

What have I been saying about the futility of predictions? There's no point to them. A split result in a 3-way race is quite possible.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 5:02 PM | Report abuse

It looks like Obama has momentum and will pull away from the pack. On the Republican side it still sems like a McHuckney three-way.

Posted by: yellojkt | January 8, 2008 5:05 PM | Report abuse

yellojkt - please promise me you will never, ever, ever, use the term "three-way" in association with any major candidate.

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 5:11 PM | Report abuse

Lilith, you knit? Lovely. More knitters = bigger better doilies.

Nice toaster link too. I think I've seen some of those in sheds around home.

Posted by: dr | January 8, 2008 5:13 PM | Report abuse

Mudge - you are quite right that predictions are extremely difficult to make. But it's human nature to do so. I mean, if someone asks who you like in the Dallas/Giants game isn't it reasonable that an opinion might be offered?

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 5:14 PM | Report abuse

I'm listening to an NPR story on ski development in Panhandle Idaho. I have a sneaky suspicion that retiring boomers will buy into ski resorts, then pretty quickly lose interest in skiing, then in golf.

The golf version is a big quandary in Florida--everyone seems to want to live on a golf course, but the retirees lose interest/run out of money/become disabled after a while. Then the course goes downhill and, just possibly, a clever scheme is trotted out to convert the course to more housing.

Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | January 8, 2008 5:26 PM | Report abuse

They aren't the same thing Padouk. Yes, predicting is human nature, and I'm not objecting to it per se. But the Dallas/Giants game by rule MUST have one winner and one loser, and one has track record to go by. Super Tuesday features three major and several minor candidates, and 12 separate contests. My objection is people are confusing the likelihood of a single win versus a split situation. It's one thing to think "Obama will 'sweep' eight of the 12 states." And he might. But that doesn't mean Obama will necessarily get 51% of the delegates -- and therefore be "the winner." Suppose he sweeps the smaller rural states and Hillary only wins New York and California. Anybody wanna guess who has more delagates in that case?

I'm arguing that one needs to look at actual numbers, not just "Obama wins."

Sure, suppose Obama just "kills" Hillary, getting 45 percent of the vote to her 35 percent. Did he "win"? No--but he swept, and he leads. But he's still only got 45 percent of the delegates. That's not "winning." "Winning" is 51 percent. Under this scenario, let's assume Edwards gets the remaining 20 percent. And he goes to the convention and decides, for whatever reason, that he thinks Hillary is the better, more experienced candidate--so he throws all of his 20 percent over the Hillary. Now it is 55-45 favor of Hillary. Except of course not everybody is gonna follow Edward's duirections; some will defect.

Also, there's a scenario where the convention is deadlocked with less than a majority after the second ballot. Delegates get "released"--and then all the binding results of the state elections go out the window. That can -- and in the past -- it HAS happened.

I'm just saying, the game ain't over until it's over. And I see no reason why it necessarily has to be over on Feb. 5 just because there's a lot of mass hysteria about it.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 5:29 PM | Report abuse

One of Joel's Trail articles got picked up my Media Matters and picked-up 52 comments.

http://mediamatters.org/items/200801080007?f=h_top

Don't know whether those folks are any less rabid than the typical WaPo.com reader.

Posted by: yellojkt | January 8, 2008 5:50 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for clarifying Mudge. And I agree with your point about not letting early primaries unduly bias expectations. It's like the "early returns" phenomenon writ large.

And part of me thinks it would be very exciting and, perhaps, good for the process if the convention was more than a sporadically televised coronation.

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

They don't seem to be, yello. The first 20 comments included one about getting a take out pizza in a french maid's outfit. Hungry and thoughtful, but not rabid.

Posted by: jack | January 8, 2008 5:56 PM | Report abuse

Re: Screechy Hillary

When Rita Cosby was on TV, hubby and I used to wonder if she gargled with kerosene. We imagined a talk show, kind of like The View, but with the worst voices we could think of: Rita C., Gilbert Gottfried, Jeannie Moos (sp?) and Andy Rooney. Maybe they can have HRC for their first guest. It'd be great!

Posted by: lilith in ga | January 8, 2008 6:02 PM | Report abuse

The comments over at "media matters" seem more quizzical than outraged. I hope they stay that way.

I am always nervous whenever another website posts a section of Joel's writing without proper context. I must suppress the urge to gird my loins (which can be quite painful if done improperly) for the possible barrage of mean-spirited ill-informed drive-by postings.

Of course, they do raise the page views. I guess this is all part of turning Joel Achenbach into the multimedia money makin' machine that is his destiny.

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 6:10 PM | Report abuse

I think Joel looks kinda dreamy in the picture.

Posted by: JoelFan | January 8, 2008 6:25 PM | Report abuse

I'm trying to get my head around the concept of a person who is honestly choosing between Obama, Romney, and Ron Paul.

Posted by: Tim | January 8, 2008 6:26 PM | Report abuse

It's kind of nice making the Media Matters hit parade. The item is totally fair and the comments are oddly civil! What's happening -- is it the Obama effect?? Everyone getting nice all of a sudden??

(Oh, and that picture was taken 5 years ago. The new me is, um, more substantial.)

Posted by: Achenbach | January 8, 2008 6:28 PM | Report abuse

Here's an email circulating NH this afternoon, from the NH Democratic Party:

Special Alert: Potential Record Turnout


Fellow Democrat,

Today's First in the Nation Primary will be monumental. This afternoon we are hearing of record breaking turnout and unprecedented same day registration. You may have heard that some polling locations have reported running low on ballots. We want you to know that there are provisions in place to address this situation. Please do not be deterred from voting. Your vote will be counted. If you or someone you know is told they cannot vote because of a shortage of ballots, please contact our office immediately at 603-225-6899.

This high voter turnout confirms that young voters, new voters and Independents are largely choosing to vote in the Democratic Primary today. This is a great sign of what is to come as we prepare to re-elect Governor John Lynch, Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, keep the majorities in the State House and elect a Democrat to the US Senate.

Remember to get out and vote today. You can call your town or city clerk to find out your address and hours of your polling location if you do not know.


....Interesting. I've been invited to a couple of Obama return-watching parties tonight. People are assuming they won't be able to get into the high school auditorium where Sen Obama himself will be.

Posted by: Manchester, NH | January 8, 2008 6:31 PM | Report abuse

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/43014

Posted by: Boko999 | January 8, 2008 6:38 PM | Report abuse

Yes, that sounds eerily familiar to me, Boko.

Posted by: Wilbrod | January 8, 2008 7:03 PM | Report abuse

Manchester, do native New Hampshirers not ever get lost?

Joel wrote an article last April on NH.

"To say one is lost in New Hampshire is to speak redundantly, like saying, "Recently, I was gambling in Vegas" or, "Recently, I was hanging out in cafes in Paris and pretending to be more intellectual than I really am." New Hampshire was apparently created before the invention of the right angle. The roads wriggle and dip and stagger their way through forests and small towns and places where "quaint" is another way of saying they never learned how to lay out things on a grid."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/04/04/AR2007040401719.html

Apparently Joel has honed his navigation skills considerably since as he has somehow managed to find food, 3 presidental candidates on the trail, and some polling places to do "exit polls". And of course the sunsets.

I wonder where Dave Barry is now (He's probably been stalking Joel for the last 500 miles because he has the only working map of NH in existence).

Posted by: Wilbrod | January 8, 2008 7:10 PM | Report abuse

Remember that Joel had his ace photographers for much of this trip. And they can read maps.

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 7:16 PM | Report abuse

There was a discussion here and in the previous kit about Gloria Steinham's op-ed in today's Times. Here is Tim Noah's take on it from Slate:

http://www.slate.com/id/2181646/

He is not a fan of the piece and sees her as a hack for the Clintons.

Posted by: pj | January 8, 2008 7:29 PM | Report abuse

I wasn't seeing the photo of Joel and thought I was having serious problems till I went to MediaMatters.org home. Yes, he does look quite youthful in that picture. Such a handsome young man.

Hmmm...a virtual tie right now on the D side. McCain looks good on the R.

On today's agenda was a visit to the Billy Graham Library. I'm still thinking about what I think. Parts of it (Bessie the cow talking about Billy Frank's cold hands) were just too precious. The gravesite is lovely, with stone from the homeplace and rhododendron planted around it. The exhibits aren't over the top, but...but...but. I've never been a huge Graham fan. His message is sound, but then what? A life of altar calls leaves me cold. Anyway, an interesting trip and worth the price of admission ($0).

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 7:41 PM | Report abuse

Tim, I'm not aware of any voting procedure involving "circling one", so it's probably a spoiled ballot anyway.

Wilbrod, great haiku about twenty kits ago.

Posted by: SonofCarl | January 8, 2008 7:42 PM | Report abuse

Howdy y'all. A quick note to say how much I've enjoyed the serial Kits & discussion the last few days -- today's definition of political existence, movies & drive-ins particularly good. Even as I speak Joel is at it again, from the lobby of the Radisson, looking after Dave Barry's laptop. LIfe don't get any better than that.

I'll check in tomorrow, by which time I confidently expect the NH primary to be over and Joel on his way home for a well-deserved rest.

Posted by: Ivansmom | January 8, 2008 7:45 PM | Report abuse

Slyness,

My folks went on a trip to the Billy Graham Library with a group from their retirement place here in the DC area last fall. His sister was there and came out to talk with the group. They all enjoyed it quite a bit.

Posted by: pj | January 8, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

See, a large part of my thinking is this: what's John Edwards' game? He's clearly not winning, and likely to finish third no mater where or what. So why is he sticking it out?

And there is a good answer. First, as long as he can hold onto a sizable block of votes and delegates, say 15 or 20 percent, he wields enormous power at the convention; he's not a "spoiler" but rather a king- (or queen-) maker. Among other things, he can pick which candidate he wants to go to and say, "I want to be your vice president." And he can also have considerable purchasing power on policy, plank, appointments, etc. He can do all this so long as neither Obama nor Hillary has 51 percent of the delegates on the first round.

Also, there is a less likely scenario that in the event of a first round deadlock, during the second round when most delegates are "released," that in the event of an extended deadlock, four, five, six ballots, that he might suddenly become the compromise candidate people turn to if they can't break the Obama-Hillary knot.

But in any event it is clearly to Edwards' advantage to not only stay in the race to the very end, but to fight like mad to retain 15 or 20 percent of the vote/delegates. And as long as he can do that, he can pretty much prevent either Obama or Hillary from getting the magic 51 percent. The guy is no dummy.

Yes, Padouk, you are wise to be careful about loin-girding. Kids, don't try this at home. Leave it to the trained professionals.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Good heavens, pj, that's quite a trip. A guide told us that they had had visitors from all over the world. Billy was the only one of the five who left the Charlotte area, and he and Ruth had their home at Montreat, in the NC mountains about 2 hours away. That's where her parents settled after they came back from China.

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 8:01 PM | Report abuse

Okay, Mudge, did you find the remote where we said it would be?

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

I'm cackling. Over at the Drudge Report, they have a headshot of Hillary over the caption "Is Hillary Finished?" -- and then they show here leading Obama 38 to 36 percent, and Edwards at 16.

I keep saying it: this prediction stuff is a mug's game.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

What if we just let Ray, Caren, Susan, Judy, Carol, Sarah, and Sharon take a meeting and decide amongst themselves who will be the next President? It would save a lot of time and energy.

If I had a single issue in the primary, it would be "unity." The more vigorous the competition among the Democrats, the more crucial it is to keep attacking the Republican position and vow unity at the general election.

I used to be an admirer of John McCain, and I'm still on his email list. Today I realized with a shock that if he managed to convince me that he was the candidate MOST LIKELY to be able to end torture by U.S. personnel, I might just vote for him. Talk about a one-issue voter. I kind of understand how the gay marriage / anti-abortion people feel, I guess. To me, everything else sort of dims next to the idea that my government is torturing people.

I wonder how Obama's brand of idealism would play out with the military and the intelligence community. I can't forget Clinton's failure to ensure civil rights for gays in the military. He just did not understand the culture, I felt. At least McCain does understand how it works.

===

This kit is some good reporting.

===

Posted by: kbertocci | January 8, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

Yes, thank you, Slyness. My question is, who gooped some kind of salsa and peanut butter all over it? Perhaps it's best that no one tell me.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

Interesting take on the Graham Library, Slyness. That corridor is one of the interesting developed tracts in the city. IIRC, Renaissance Park was one of the first anchors out there aside from the airport. Kennedy JHS and Olympic also seemed to be in the boonies at that time. It's a shame that so much capital was wasted on what was formerly the New Coliseum when the city could have built the stadium in its present location, and the proposed baseball stadium much cheaper when both projects were proposed some 20 years ago. I miss Crockett Park and the quaintness of Charlotte back then.

Posted by: jack | January 8, 2008 8:08 PM | Report abuse

I disapprove of the Billy Graham theme park & gravesite on principle. Ruth did indeed make their home in Montreat, and intended to be buried there. Vigorously and consistently she stated this as her wish. Billy Graham initially agreed. One child, the one developing the theme park, needed the gravesites as the big draw, the moneymaker if you will (sufficiently disgusted yet?). He relentlessly pressured Billy Graham to agree, expressly against Ruth's wishes, that she should be buried there when she died, and he followed her. So the beautiful burial site is (a) not the first choice of either deceased Graham parent and (b) designed as a lucrative tourist attraction. The principle, obviously, is respect for the wishes of one's parents and for the dead. Bah.

Okay, now I really am out of here - rehearsal for Renaissance Christmas music, coming in a few months to a CD near you.

Posted by: Ivansmom | January 8, 2008 8:08 PM | Report abuse

pj promulgates sensi-religion
lil knitts HUZZAH

Obama is to tulip
as Clinton (H) is to .....

Media notes:JA, a pols-watch mcDreamy; move ovr AndersonCoop

HELP ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!SEND DSL!

Posted by: cp | January 8, 2008 8:11 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, Slyness, that was quite a trip. They rented a bus and stayed overnight in a hotel down there. That made it a lot easier on them.

Posted by: pj | January 8, 2008 8:12 PM | Report abuse

I've heard that a lot of fun can be had with a peanut butter/salsa encrusted remote. Especially when selecting an input. For the telly, of course. Just sayin".

Posted by: jack | January 8, 2008 8:12 PM | Report abuse

Yes, what a shame that was, Ivansmom. Personally, I don't think it matters much where a body is deposited; I want to be cremated. Ruth's grave is covered by a rough stone slab, with a Chinese character at the top, which we were told means righteousness. At the bottom, the epitaph says:

Construction completed, thank you for your patience.

I like that.

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 8:16 PM | Report abuse

Thanks, SoC.

Posted by: Wilbrod | January 8, 2008 8:20 PM | Report abuse

Ivansmom, I'll purchase that CD if you promise your rendition of O Holy Night will be on it.

I just hope the remote still works after you clean it, Mudge. You DID clean it, didn't you?

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 8:24 PM | Report abuse

I am with Slyness Ivansmom please send purchase info when available, any chance coventry carol would be on the CD?

Just have to add this Wolf Blitzer is really annoying.

Posted by: dmd | January 8, 2008 8:29 PM | Report abuse

Clean? What is this "clean" of which you speak?

I figured I'd let the dog just lick it spotless.

*really torn about faxing CP some DSL. She's suffering for her art -- but the art's pretty good, and I'm ambivalent about tinkering with her torturous muse.*

Posted by: Curmudgeon | January 8, 2008 8:40 PM | Report abuse

Twenty-two percent of the precincts reporting and WaPo is calling McCain a winner? That's a bit premature, isn't it?

You'll have to ask Wilbrod very nicely if she will let Wilbrodog lick the remote, Mudge. Wouldn't want to upset his tummy.

Posted by: Slyness | January 8, 2008 8:58 PM | Report abuse

Hmm. New Kit. I guess I misunderstood. I thought Joel was on the way home, but evidently he is still hanging out in New Hampshire. But I fear he may be running with a questionable crowd.

Posted by: RD Padouk | January 8, 2008 9:03 PM | Report abuse

Peanut butter never upsets my tummy!

Err, is the salsa hot and with raw onions? You should eat that first, please, Mudge. No olives for me. And served on sturdy china, s'il vous plaît.

Posted by: Wilbrodog | January 8, 2008 10:10 PM | Report abuse

I'm not fully BackBoodled, so forgive me if I'm repeating someone...

A look at the raw numbers from NH is VERY interesting...

Overall turnout of about 512,000 -- AMAZING, considering the state's 2006 census estimate was a touch over 1.3 million!! OK, time for the rest of the country to match that! :-)

And the top three Democratic candidates got 261,236 votes, as opposed to all GOP candidates getting 233,380! Heck, Clinton and Obama almost topped the whole GOP field.

I'm very proud of my home state this morning.

*Happy-Hump-Day Grover waves* :-)

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