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The Return of Rove and Other Super Tuesday Dramas

[More stuff cross-posted from The Trail.]

6 p.m.

Howard Dean was just on CNN, getting all tangled up in questions about those Florida and Michigan delegates. Officially, they don't count. They're dead. They're ghostly essences screaming in the torment of primary-season damnation. But wait: Maybe they really just exist in a kind of Purgatory, and, if Sen. Hillary Clinton has her way, they will still manage to ascend to the Democratic National Convention.

Dean told Wolf Blitzer that this will be decided by the Credentials Committee, which he said would be 180 people from across the country. He said repeatedly that he has no control over the Credentials Committee, which naturally makes you wonder if most of the people on the Credentials Committee are his cousins and so forth.

We've already learned today that, in addition to primaries and caucuses, there are conventions such as in West Virginia where delegates are selected after multiple ballots and who knows what kind of back-room dealing. But how many of us have thought about the Credentials Committee and what it might portend?

"Hi, we're from the Credentials Committee, and we're here to help."

Run for your life.


7 p.m.

On CBS, they're making it sound like it's going to be a bad night for Hillary, apparently based on exit polls. There is talk of an Obama "surge." The only catch with these exit polls is that many people have not yet exited the polls, since the polls are still open all across the country, except in West Virginia, where there never were any polls, just a secret convention of men in trench coats.

In other news, the Dow crashed, and someone caught a baby falling from a burning building.

On BBC, the anchorman says dramatically, "Beware: Super Tuesday, super complicated." Then some other chap speculates that the Democrats will decide they can't afford this long campaign, and will cut a deal, and it'll all be over. Right, and maybe we'll switch to a parliamentary system.

Now I'm looking at exit polls too, but I will retain a poker face to ensure that I do not bias any potential voter. Grit teeth, bite tongue, breathe through nose. Okay, but here's one tangential question that pops to mind: Can McCain break the 50 percent mark among Republicans in his home state of Arizona?

They've called Georgia for Obama. That leaves only, what, 40-something contests to go. Long night ahead. Alaska's polls don't close until 12:30 a.m., and that could tip the balance of the whole thing.


8 p.m.

There's pundit gridlock at CNN. They've got them in rows, in close-order formations like soldiers fighting a Napoleonic war. You almost have to feel sorry for the ones in the back row, the second tier, like Bill Bennett. Meanwhile there are graphics exploding everywhere, and hanging plexiglass signs, and there may well be a pundit lost in there somewhere between the Georgia and Missouri campaign returns, yelping.

Meanwhile, on Fox, look who's here: Karl Rove. Solo. He's quite the election geek, which I mean in absolutely the best sense of the phrase. He knows his numbers, his delegate allotment procedures. He knows strategy. He thinks McCain shouldn't have watched the Super Bowl in Massachusetts but probably with military folks someplace like Georgia.

Instant review, subject to revision: As a pundit, Rove is a strikingly bland presence on TV. A big vanilla wafer of a man.

Rove sees some promising signs for each of the top three Republicans, and is struck by how many white people are voting for Obama: "If white Democrats in Georgia are voting for Obama, then white Democrats across America may be voting for Obama."

8:45 p.m.

What if it's not over. What if it's not even close to over. This is turning into a scary night.

Way back when, Feb. 5, 2008 was the date circled on every political writer's calendar as the effective end of the primary season, at which point everyone could start reading novels again, and puttering around the house, and planning that Florida beach trip. But the storyline developing tonight is that neither the Democrats nor the Republicans can decide whom they want as president.

At Talking Points Memo, Josh Marshall writes, "McCain's folks were dying to have Huckabee stay in and do well. But I suspect at the end of the evening he'll have done a good deal better than the McCain wanted. And Mitt's not getting shut out either. Keep watching this."

Michael Sherer in Time's Swampland blog writes that "as the early results come in from Super Tuesday's voting, the two-person narrative sure looks shaky in the South, the Republican Party's heartland."

Salena Zito of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review has a headline on her blog asking, "What if Dems have frontrunner, not GOP?" And that Dem would be Obama.

Jim Geraghty at the National Review can't believe how poorly McCain is doing in Arizona. Of course he should have read, ahem, The Post's story the other day about Republicans and immigration in McCain's home state.

[More linky bits to come...]

By Joel Achenbach  |  February 5, 2008; 9:31 PM ET
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Posted by: Boko999 | February 5, 2008 9:49 PM | Report abuse

First! How many delegates do I get?

Son of Carl, yes, I'm the Pan's Labyrinth fanatic. Del Toro might be a bit dark for The Hobbit, but I like his films, the names of which escape me at the moment.

Posted by: mostlylurking | February 5, 2008 9:49 PM | Report abuse

Hope this is a proportional Boodle.

Posted by: mostlylurking | February 5, 2008 9:50 PM | Report abuse

Reposted from last kit:

Super Duper Tsunami Fat Tuesday Report from California Precinct 3510

They are running low on ballots with almost two hours left to vote.

I got there with almost 20 folks ahead of me in line at my precinct. As I left there were 15 folks waiting to sign in.

The Fire Station Apparatus Room was also home to another Precinct which only had five folks in line at any one time. Maybe those folks voted early.

Posted by: Pacifica | February 5, 2008 9:51 PM | Report abuse

Rove on Faux, another good reason (as if one were needed) to never, ever watch that network.

Posted by: Bad Sneakers | February 5, 2008 9:53 PM | Report abuse

Hehehe, Faux, I like that, Sneaks!

An interesting take on the election from the Times of London:

This is a guy who knows his US history...

Posted by: Slyness | February 5, 2008 9:58 PM | Report abuse

How the heck can Rove be on Fox? I just watched "House" on Fox.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | February 5, 2008 10:04 PM | Report abuse

It's not original Slyness, Olbermann uses it all the time, but I do find it a very true play on words. On "Dirty Jobs" they harvested cranberries in Oregon, who knew? The bogs are much bigger there. And now I'm taking another pill and turning in.

Posted by: Bad Sneakers | February 5, 2008 10:06 PM | Report abuse

Slyness... great!

Pacifica... thanks for the Boodle on the Street report.

I find it thrilling that next week when I get to vote I'm going to vote for either a woman or an African-American.

Posted by: TBG | February 5, 2008 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Report from 6 precincts that caucused together in far northern MN. Total across the precincts was 15 for Clinton, 10 for Obama, and 1 uncommitted. Knowing everyone in the room tells me that Obama did best with higher income, college grads.

Very interesting night. I was elected as a delegate to the county and state senate district conventions. My chances of being a delegate to the state convention, or national, are somewhere between slim and none since in our county the steelworkers', government employees', and teachers' unions don't let us rural bumpkins advance in a prez election year.

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:14 PM | Report abuse

MN Public Radio is projecting 110,000 dem caucus goers tonight. Double 2004 and shattering the record of 75,000 set in '68.

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:21 PM | Report abuse

Exit polls from Nowswhereville, MN caucuses on the border:

My ward had a total of 51 votes. Clinton, 28 and Obama 23. I was bored by a clinton supporter rambling on about Clinton.

I wanted to speak up for Obama, but wound writing it down. My point was: in the last 10 years he has had a better civil rights record than Clinton. He passed a bill to get police to videotape interrogations and confessions in Ill. State senate.
On the other hand, Clinton sponsored an anti-flag burning amendment which is a free speech limitation. This is the age of the Patriot act, passed with a nearly 1/2 democratic congress.

Afterwards, an Obama supporter thanked me for saying that about Obama (she was complaining Hillary was in the pocket of drug companies). It's just too bad I said that after most people had already voted, so it barely made a difference... except for one person.
My mom immediately wrote down Obama after reading what I said out aloud. I think she honestly couldn't decide up to that point.

Anyway, since my ward sends 20+ delegates to the county convention, and there were just 20+ in the room, I wound up being a delegate to the county convention.

Also, somehow I also wound up promising to caucus for Al Franken as well.

(I had thought my dad was joking that if you showed up for a caucus, you'd wind up being a delegate. Nope.).

Now, Clinton 28 and Obama sounds like a loss, but I was in a room with people whose average age was 60+, some in 90's. I spotted only 3 people whose age would have been below 40, and it was nearly vanilla white, with one American Indian, and the most vocal supporters were Clinton.

Now, the OTHER ward was Clinton 81, Obama 111-- a clear victory for Obama.

An very interesting experience. Next time I'll be sure to bring a better interpreter and more pen and paper.

Posted by: Wilbrod | February 5, 2008 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Wilbrod-Greetings fellow delegate. You had a better minority turnout than we did, ours was 0. Very disappointing since 1/2 the eligible voters in my precinct are AI. We had a small contingent of young voters. One who will be 18 just in time for the general election and 3-4 in their 20s.

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:30 PM | Report abuse

Good for you, Wilbrod! I'm sure it was an interesting experience.

The Times of London did a story on Obama's speech at Ebenezer Baptist and a followup for the ten greatest speeches in British history. One comment is that Lincoln's Gettsburg Address is the greatest speech ever given. I hadn't thought about it in those terms, but I think the commenter is right.

Posted by: Slyness | February 5, 2008 10:33 PM | Report abuse

Congrats on being delegates! Power to the Boodle!

Posted by: mostlylurking | February 5, 2008 10:35 PM | Report abuse

Yes, the Gettysburg address wins prizes for conciseness, right note of reverence, reference to nation in turmoil, and a vow that the dead's sacrifice will not be forgot. It's almost a state of union address in a few dozen words.

Posted by: Wilbrod | February 5, 2008 10:36 PM | Report abuse

PBS just called Minnesota for Obama.

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:38 PM | Report abuse

mostly-Power to the boodle indeed. In my heart I will always be pledged to Error in '08!

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:40 PM | Report abuse

Very cool, Wilbrod. Those of us in the PTA know better than to show up for a meeting where they are picking delegates.

Or worse... NOT show up when they're delegating. At least if you're there you can usually choose the job you're "volunteered" for.

Posted by: TBG | February 5, 2008 10:42 PM | Report abuse

Joel, you had me at "phrenology."

Speaking of which, I'm paying close attention to the bumps on *Rove's* head. Subliminal phrenology is a scary thing, and it looks to me that Karl's got enough room on that forehead for "The Gulag Archaepelago."

I can't quite make out what's going on with that head yet, but it sure isn't saying "Eat at Joe's." Maybe it's a messge meant for others from his Homeworld, like the text of "To Serve Man."

Whatever you do, Joel, don't panic. Unless the oxygen masks drop from the ceiling, that is.

Watching Romney deliver a speech from Mass., and am chuckling to myself as he delivers a populist message about taking Washington back "for the people," like he's Mr. Smith or a Regular Guy or something.



Posted by: bc | February 5, 2008 10:47 PM | Report abuse

Congrats, Wilbrod!

I'm in the wrong time zone to stay awake any longer. 'Night.

Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | February 5, 2008 10:51 PM | Report abuse

Me too, Dave. And I've got to get up and go volunteer in the morning, so I'm for bed.

G'night all. Happy elections!

Posted by: Slyness | February 5, 2008 10:54 PM | Report abuse

Goodnight and fondue. I'd love to stay up and hear the CA results but I just can't do it. Thanks Pacifica for the boodle eye view of your precinct.

Posted by: frostbitten | February 5, 2008 10:57 PM | Report abuse

Dave of the Coonties!

Wait! Before you turn in, please find me the info on the book you referred to earlier today.


Posted by: Maggie O'D | February 5, 2008 11:03 PM | Report abuse

With the number of paper ballots, and the number of early voters, in California, it will be early tomorrow morning until California is called with any reliability.

My county offers either hand held electronic balloting, or the old fashioned paper ballot. I actually would like to back about 8 years, when we filled out a paper ballot that was counted electronically.

I want a paper trail, this is California, we need to be prepared for all natural and other emergencies, and non-paper trail voting machines, do not give me any comfort.

Posted by: Pacifica | February 5, 2008 11:09 PM | Report abuse

Being a county delegate reminds me somehow of what Mark Twain wrote in The Great French Duel.

"The cross of the Legion of Honor has been conferred upon me. However, few escape that distinction."

Posted by: Wilbrod | February 5, 2008 11:12 PM | Report abuse

In states with caucuses Obama is winning by wide margins while in the others the races are much closer.

Posted by: Anonymous | February 5, 2008 11:33 PM | Report abuse

The election was TODAY? Didn't that silly groundhog see his shadow?

Posted by: MedallionOfFerret | February 5, 2008 11:39 PM | Report abuse

When the groundhog sees his shadow, that means there are eight more months of campaigning.

Posted by: nellie | February 5, 2008 11:44 PM | Report abuse

Because caucus votes can't be rigged, maybe?

Posted by: Wilbrod | February 5, 2008 11:52 PM | Report abuse

Maggie O'D,
Here's the Google Books info on "If the Irish Ruled the World"

Akenson is a Canadian-Irish historian who's even written on the "the invention of the Bible and the Talmuds"

There are at least a couple of histories of Jews (Sephardic) in the colonial West Indies, and there's the infamous case of Cromwell jailing some large 3,000 Scots in Durham Cathedral. They were shipped as slaves to South Carolina and the Indies.

I spotted something on French policy toward Huguenot emigration (Louis XIV had definite ideas, so Colbert's hands were tied), but I can't remember the source.

And of course the English colonies (presumably including Jamaica) were dumping grounds for "convicts", something Benjamin Franklin complained about loudly.

Posted by: Dave of the Coonties | February 6, 2008 12:21 AM | Report abuse

Hah! I KNEW IT! Now we have DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE that Billary rigged the election!

...nellie, did I ever tell you I know "Jabberwocky" by heart? Memorized it when I was a high school sophomore. Never got me laid, though.

Posted by: MedallionOfFerret | February 6, 2008 12:28 AM | Report abuse

Very interesting returns. I'll be equally interested in the spin on the final results. See y'all in the a.m..

Posted by: jack | February 6, 2008 12:30 AM | Report abuse

Leastways, not yet.

Posted by: MedallionOfFerret | February 6, 2008 12:31 AM | Report abuse

Looks like things could be nasty at the DNC.

Looks at the hardball politics that could come in play given a close contest. I don't like the sounds of this. Let's see what Edwards does.

Posted by: Wilbrod | February 6, 2008 2:02 AM | Report abuse

pacifica, we had paper ballots with the ink dots that are counted by machine. i agree with you about not going more electronic than that. the whole electronic voting thing worries me because of technical problems and because of possible fraud.

Posted by: L.A. lurker | February 6, 2008 3:59 AM | Report abuse

'Morning, Boodle, Cassandra. Wow, a really interesting night, to say the least. Here's the upshot:

In the Dem race, HC and Obama fought to a draw, HC winning 8 states and 582 delegates, and Obama winning 13 states and 562 delegates so far, with another 917 delegates still to be figured out. The odds are they'll still be within 50 delegates of each other at the end of the counting. New Mexico is still counting, with each candidate getting about 48 percent; it's gonna be down to the wire on that one. In Missouri, a state everybody was watching closely, BO beat HC 49 to 48 percent, a squeeker, by highly encouraging to the Obama folks.

On the GOP side, it was a wild three-way split, with McCain taking 9 states, Romney 7 states and Huckleberry 5 states, though with the winner-take-all nature of it, McCain seems to be winning more delegates--though nowhere near enough to put him over the top. Yellojkt's Ron Oaul actually finished 2nd in Montana and third in Utah, North Dakota and Alaska.

So it ain't gonna be over until the Fat Lady sings, and she's not even gonna start warming up until August. Six more weeks of winter, six more weeks of campaign voting--and then the fun *really* begins as everybody scrambles for the Superdelegates.
Oh, it's gonna get *really* interesting.

My interpretation: Obama did better than Hillary and better than expectations; now he's gonna have to wrestle the party apparatus away from her.

On the other side, Huckabee and Romney both did better than expected, as did Ron Paul. This one's gonna be a bloodbath, methinks. On the one hand, I'd say they are wrestling for the soul of the Republican Party, but then, that outfit has no soul, so there ya go. It seems there is an implicit alliance forming between McCain and Huckleberry for the nom. for #1 and veep positions, and if they consummate that deal, they could stop a lot of fratricide by knocking Romney out early, which I think they'll do. Oh it's gonna be pretty disgusting watching them all hug and kiss and make up at the end.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | February 6, 2008 5:50 AM | Report abuse

McCain and Huckleberry, wow. What would their platform be - 100 year religious war? Would the Repubs just fly apart at the seams with a duo like that running?

Posted by: Bad Sneakers | February 6, 2008 6:46 AM | Report abuse

G'Day, eh.
I hope your head feels better Sneaks.

Posted by: Boko999 | February 6, 2008 7:06 AM | Report abuse

We can hope, can't we, Sneaks? Hope you're feeling better this morning.

Hey everybody.

Posted by: Slyness | February 6, 2008 7:07 AM | Report abuse

Mornin' all!! :-)

As I've said before, any ticket involving the Traveling Theocracy Roadshow is waaaaaaaaaaaaay too scary to contemplate. We ARE talking politics however, so...

*already-hopping-on-a-Hump-Day Grover waves* :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | February 6, 2008 7:28 AM | Report abuse

Thanks, feeling a bit fragile but ok. I do have some medication to take with me to work just in case. Not paying too close attention to all the pundits today will probably help also.

Posted by: Bad Sneakers | February 6, 2008 8:05 AM | Report abuse

Is refresh not working again?

Anyhow, I think I almost called it:

I'm expecting McCain to pretty much put it away come Tuesday

I'm expecting Clinton and Obama to both still be in the race.

At least that's what my insanely crazy magic 8-ball is telling me...YMMV

Posted by: omni | February 1, 2008 12:51 PM

Posted by: omni | February 6, 2008 8:14 AM | Report abuse

Just an observation:

Over on the celebritology blog they sure do go to bed early.

And sleep in late.

Bunch of kids over there I swear.

But man, can they ever stay on topic.

Posted by: omni | February 6, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

and I'm still wondering what a Bonfleur scale is???????

Posted by: omni | February 6, 2008 8:30 AM | Report abuse

woo, woo, Wilbrod's a big-kahuna politico now. Next thing ya know, she'll be smokin' stogeys in some back room, griping distainfully 'bout all those "little people". Way to go, there, kiddo.

Posted by: Don from I-270 | February 6, 2008 8:41 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, and happy Big Ash Wednesday to everyone!

As omni (and many others to be fair) predicted, nothing is over yet, though the GOP's getting close. Those presidential ashpirations (ahem) being spread on the leading GOP candidates' foreheads this morning would be Ron Paul's, and there's barely enough there for the three of them.

An interesting column from Myerson, who presents the idea that McCain's campaign is "ant-Rovian," but is working anyway:

Also loved this line, "Blessed, in Romney, with an opponent who approaches the Platonic Ideal of Inauthenticity, McCain has racked up primary-season successes more because of the personal contrasts between the two candidates than because of differences of program."


Posted by: bc | February 6, 2008 8:46 AM | Report abuse

New Mexico is still close; Obama leads Hillary by 518 votes. 38 delegates at stake.

Posted by: Curmudgeon | February 6, 2008 8:53 AM | Report abuse

I don't give 2 hoots for sports of any kind. I watched a little of it just to keep my wife company, then helped my daughter with her A&P(Airframe and Powerplant) homework. My wife told me last night that 2 of the Patriots, Moss and Brady, have declined their invites to the ProBowl. Is that extremely childish, or what? What divas.

Posted by: Don from I-270 | February 6, 2008 8:59 AM | Report abuse

Between the Florida & Michigan delegate brouhaha and the superdelegate business, it seems entirely possible that Obama could come out ahead on primary delegates and still lose at the convention. This would be too reminiscent of 2000 for many Dems to stomach I expect. Of course the eventual nominee needs every Democratic vote in the general election and this is even more true for HRC than for Obama (referring to him as BO just sounds a little icky to me, you know?) since she is less likely to change minds or attract independents and Republicans. If she wins, she must avoid the appearance of getting the nom by backroom dealing and keep the Obama people in the fold.

Posted by: kurosawaguy | February 6, 2008 9:15 AM | Report abuse

The GOP is coalescing around McCain, Huckabee and Romney, but astrophysicists know that a merger of three galaxies almost always results with one of the stellar cores being forcefully ejected from the chaos, but the short-term interaction of the three galactic cores acclerates the merger rate of the remaining two with the material of the third (stars, gas, planets, etc.) to make a single super fat galaxy.


Posted by: bc | February 6, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

ACH, 3/10.

Ther were definitely some I should have got. Not a single lucky guess.dangit

Posted by: omni | February 6, 2008 9:20 AM | Report abuse

7/10, with a lot of guesses. I don't even watch gangster/slasher/violent movies. Now if only I knew something useful.

Posted by: dmd | February 6, 2008 9:24 AM | Report abuse

Morning all..

With McCain's popularity growing, I just don't see how the conservatives can keep calling themselves the "base" of the Republican party. I think they're finally being revealed for the radicals they really are.

Posted by: TBG | February 6, 2008 9:26 AM | Report abuse

Memorizing "Jabberwocky" to impress chicks is like customizing a Gremlin. It sure is a lot of work, but the results are bound to disappoint.

In an expectations managing statement, the Obama camp declared that if they were within 100 delegates of Hillary when the dust settled, they would be able to declare victory. Looks like they managed that. Time and momentum are on Barry's side.

Posted by: yellojkt | February 6, 2008 9:26 AM | Report abuse

New Kit!

Posted by: dmd | February 6, 2008 9:27 AM | Report abuse

An update on my Feb 1 prognostications:

at that time HRC had 60% of estimated superds and pledged delegates and BO had 40%

Today were at HRC 54% and BO 46%.

Yep, it's a horse race.

Posted by: omni | February 6, 2008 9:29 AM | Report abuse

Maureen Dowd writes today at the NYT:
Darkness seeking darkness. It's an exhausting specter, and the reason that Tom Daschle, Ted Kennedy, Claire McCaskill and so many other Democrats are dashing for daylight and trying to break away from the pathological Clinton path.

I would say last night that the Kennedys were the big losers. Neither Massachusetts nor California bought the spiel from Chicagoans Maria Shriver and Oprah--and Massachusetts senator Ted Kennedy. If Dowd thinks the "Clinton machine" is so nasty, when not go back in time and probe the "Kennedy machine"? Really, Dowd should do her homework. Interesting Kennedy-Chicago connection to the coal interests of West Virginia--speaking of last summer's Washington Post front-page article by Alec MacGillis about Obama and coal.:

The [Wall Street] Journal's investigative team, which included Roscoe C. Born, of the Washington bureau, spent the next five weeks in May and June in West Virginia and learned that the Kennedys had turned what has historically been random election fraud into a statewide pattern of corruption, and had apparently stolen the election from Hubert Humphrey. The reporters concluded that huge sums of Kennedy money had been funneled into the state, much of it from Chicago, where R. [Robert] Sargent Shriver [Maria's dad, who hailed from Maryland but had been tapped by Joe Kennedy to run his enormous Chicago Mercahndise Mart. Maria born in Chicago.], a Chicagoan, who married Jack's sister Eunice in 1953, represented the family's business interests. The reporters were told that much of the money had been delivered by a longtime Shriver friend named James B. McCahey, Jr., who was president of a Chicago coal company that held contracts for delivering coal to the city's public school system. As a coal buyer earlier in his career, McCahey had spent time traveling through West Virginia, whose mines routinely produced more than 100 million tons of coal a year. Roscie Born and a colleague traeled to Chicago to interview McCahey "and he snowed us completey," Born recalled in a series of interviews for this book ["The Dark Side of Camelot"]. Nonetheless, the reporter said, "there was no doubt in my mind that [Kennedy] money was dispensed to local machines where they controlled the votes." ...

[The Wall Street Journal expose never ran, for the reasons Sy Hersh lists. However...] The columnist Robert D. Novak, than a political reporter on the Journal, recalled in an interview for this book hearing that the newspaper's top management had concluded that the West Virginia money story could affect the proceedings in Los Angeles, and it was not "the place of the Wall Street Journal to determine the Democratic nominee for president."

Posted by: Loomis | February 6, 2008 9:33 AM | Report abuse

It's good that a Bad Guys quiz appeared in a Kit with Rove's name in its title.

Posted by: TBG | February 6, 2008 9:37 AM | Report abuse

A Requiem For Hilary

Posted by: Deeply Imbedded | February 20, 2008 7:17 AM | Report abuse

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