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Scoop: Gulf well may be gushing 25,000 to 30,000 barrels

[Here is a pdf of the confidential BP memo of April 27 that shows the early BP estimate for how much oil was leaking.]


Just filed to the web some new figures we obtained this afternoon from the federal government that suggest the Deepwater Horizon well is gushing more oil than previously estimated.

The Flow Rate Technical Group has four subgroups, and the one that is looking at the video of the leak, the so-called plume team, has come up with an estimate of 20,000 to 40,000 barrels a day, with the most likely range being 25,000 to 30,000 barrels. The team had earlier estimated the flow at 12,000 to 25,000 barrels.

Another team, which uses remote sensing (and has a bit of a greater challenge because it has to factor in skimming, burning, dispersal, plumes, etc.) has refined its own estimate slightly upward. Instead of 12,000 to 19,000 barrels, that team is now saying 12,600 to 21,500 barrels.

More numbers coming. Keep in mind that some of this is being contained, and not all is going into the gulf. But it'll mean larger fines for BP and more trouble producing all the oil at the surface if the higher figures are correct.

Here's the story.

By Joel Achenbach  |  June 10, 2010; 4:00 PM ET
 
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Comments

The huge post-BOP top chop flow rate is something I think has been appreciated by the stock market for a few days.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 4:13 PM | Report abuse

"Much of the oil flowing into the gulf has been skimmed, burned, or dispersed with chemicals."

Dispersed with chemicals, oh well that is the same as gone, no worries, banished, *poof*, see ya, oil? what oil?

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

It's impressive that the Post seems first to present these new best estimates, but they're remarkably like the unofficial numbers that have been coming out of academia.

I hope, with shrink, that the stock markets won't further panic at the start of trading tomorrow. The early trading in BP in London today was pretty much a stampede. At least there were some vultures hovering about, doing some hoovering.

Posted by: DaveoftheCoonties | June 10, 2010 4:32 PM | Report abuse

I remember at the time saying that I'd probably have cause to regret my skepticism of the 29,000 bbl/day figure floated a while back.

Posted by: bobsewell | June 10, 2010 4:36 PM | Report abuse

Also: I continue to be impressed at expertise within the US on oil flow rates, oil slick movements, oil slick effects on Louisiana marshes, and many other issues.

On the ecological side, I suspect the 2005 hurricanes raised interest and made research grants available. There must be a bunch of fresh Ph.D.s and post-docs already at work on the spill.

Posted by: DaveoftheCoonties | June 10, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

Simply *refusing* to mudge myself (I got a cramp the last time), I wish to respond to Shrink's post on the redundant reading out of PP slides. I notice the same thing from sports casters who read what's on the television screen (typically upcoming programs on whatever channel they are occupying at the time). It annoys me endlessly. I figure they do it because either the audience members do not know how to read (I mean, after all, it *is* a sports event they're watching . . . ) or because they don't want anybody else on the couch with a beer to know that *they* know how to read.

Whatever. Remains annoying.

I spoke with a colleague in the UK yesterday, who told me that she hoped BP's fines wouldn't be significantly high, because there were a lot of people over there who had their pensions tied up in BP. To which, I had too many things to say, but demurred and hung up sweetly. Due diligence did come to mind, however.

Posted by: -ftb- | June 10, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

vultures hovering about, doing some hoovering

Dave, I appreciate a fine mixed metaphor, I once posted this thing of beauty,

"I think the White House was just firing a warning shot, they were trying to stop the bleeding."

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 4:40 PM | Report abuse

Excellent article Joel. And I liked the discussion of why, exactly a good flow rate estimate is important.

Although, for reasons we have discussed, the increase in fines possible from a higher estimate are one of the lesser financial costs of this mess to BP.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 5:00 PM | Report abuse

25000 +/- 20%. Told ya so.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 10, 2010 5:20 PM | Report abuse

Wonder if the top bypass still spews. They set the cameras to not see that days ago.

Posted by: Jumper1 | June 10, 2010 5:23 PM | Report abuse

"Told ya so."

It sucks to be right. But who, who staring at that almost two foot diameter wide open flow out of the BOP after they cut off the riser, who thought, "No problem, this looks good to me. They cut off that cracked piece of bent pipe and now, they'll just shut'er down, Tony said so, 90% containment, next week, the valves, they'll close. Right?"

Everyone thought, "Well that sure looks like a lot more than 20%, hey it looks like ten times the flow, but what do I know, I just hope that pipe thingy works."


Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 5:35 PM | Report abuse

Excuse the interuption, but urgently paging the Comtessa of Alberta, Ian Brown of the G&M needs you, to cook in your home.

Shriek think you would be a worthy candidate as well.

Plus I could live vicariously through you both as I adore Ian Brown.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/food-and-wine/ian-brown-eats-canada/article1596554/

You may now return to the oil spill, sigh - it is just not getting any better is it.

Posted by: dmd3 | June 10, 2010 5:43 PM | Report abuse

Jumper1, 2 cameras are still on the flow out from under, it looks the same, terrible.

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 5:55 PM | Report abuse

If you look at this one, the flow from just the left side appears* greater than the flow from the end of the riser, before they cut it off.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/incident_response/STAGING/local_assets/html/Skandi_ROV2.html


*yes I know, camera angle, distance lighting, my lying eyes, leave it to the experts, just 20%, 20%, 20%, ah, now I feel better.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 6:02 PM | Report abuse

So cool, dmd! Thank you. I've applied to cook for Mr. Brown.

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

AP has a story on oiled turtles in Louisiana being fed cod liver oil and mayonnaise, followed by activated charcoal to counteract the petroleum they've ingested. Perhaps Duke's Mayonnaise?

Posted by: DaveoftheCoonties | June 10, 2010 6:08 PM | Report abuse

FTB, believe it or not, there are those of us who enjoy sporting events who can't read.

What annoys me is when a sports caster, especially the play by play guy says, "Look at that! Another amazing play by one of the best in the business."

Huh? Please tell me what just happened. Or what's the point of an announcer?

Posted by: WhackyWeasel | June 10, 2010 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Summer of Love, Summer of '42, Summer of '69, Summer of Sam.

Summer of Desperation, 2010.

I still can't believe BP didn't dispatch ships from the North Sea within a week after this started.

Posted by: -dbG- | June 10, 2010 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Off to swim. Am thinking about sweet tea, the official drink of below the rhubarb line. Somebody please, brew and ice me a batch of supersweet tea...I shall return with a thirst. Thanks.

Posted by: CollegeQuaParkian1 | June 10, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Why be surprised dbG, BP has yet to live up expectations in any way. :-(

Off to relearn how to tango and yes there are two of us.

Posted by: badsneakers | June 10, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Dave,
Mayonnaised turtles sounds yummy.
Never mind, it feels like deep winter in Santiago. Need goofy thoughts.

Tomorrow World Cup starts. US plays England on Saturday.

But, most important item is the discovery of the proper Bñoody Mary. Here's how you do it:

Prepare or buy the tomato juice based mix. Chill the stuff as no ice goes into the glass.

Pour BM mix into glass. Using inverted spoon to avoid mixing pour an equal amount of vodka. Your libation now will have two colors, chrystal clear white on top, red on the bottom. This makes it politically correct in Russia.

Belt the drink down, the firy vodka will go down your gullet followed by the soothing mix. Aaaach!

Chase with caviar if you can afford it.

Excellent oil spill blues relief.

Brag :)


Posted by: Braguine | June 10, 2010 6:29 PM | Report abuse

Tony Hayward, in mid-May declared the ecological impact was likely to be "very, very, modest." This is an oil company.

Tony Hayward and Dick Cheney, they are blood brothers, oil runs in their veins.

The disastrous decision was to allow an oil company to control all, every, total, alpha to omega, the oil company controlled every part of our country's understanding of this catastrophe, not to mention its response, the 1.2M gallons of dispersant, cutting off the riser...who better?

Don't talk about who has ROVs and Obama in a dive suit. Someone decided to let BP decide what was real because, after all they were going to pay for it. Ooops.

If I have to pay for something that is ongoing, for months, and I control every detail of information as to what it is that I am going to pay for...no wonder Tony Hayward was supercilious. Ack, I shouldn't even press post, the die is cast, looking back is for lawyers. But this is it for today. Boodlklatura, be well my friends.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 10, 2010 6:39 PM | Report abuse

The thing to keep in mind is that all that really matters is the total amount of oil released. If cutting the riser increased the leak significantly this doesn't necessarily mean it was a mistake. The question is if by doing so it will lead to a greater degree of capture in the weeks to come. There isn't an obvious conclusion here.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 6:39 PM | Report abuse

I am not seeing anything in this article to imply that cutting off the riser was necessarily a poor decision. What I am reading is that the flow rate before the riser was cut was much larger than many believed.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 6:47 PM | Report abuse

I'll show some love to RD_Padouk. Pre-riser cutoff they might have been collecting 10% of the flow. Now they might be collecting half or more, and in a more consistent fashion.

Now is better.

Now is still bad, but now is better.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 10, 2010 7:07 PM | Report abuse

I just reread the article and I still don't see why gloating of any kind is justified. Yes early estimates were doubtless too low.

And this means what? That BP deliberately faked the numbers? That they are incompetent? Maybe they are and maybe they did, but that sure isn't obvious to me.

Heck, there still isn't any consensus. Should those academics and experts who might still be in error in their estimates end up being thrown in the stocks and publicly ridiculed?

The point is, I think gloating misses the point. The point is that the environment was so poorly understood that any reliable estimate was impossible.

This well was dug in an environment in which BP was relying on luck instead of good established engineering.

That, to me, is what people should be worked up over.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 7:10 PM | Report abuse

Thanks steveboyington.

Bottom line is that I am used to working in an environment in which huge quantitative uncertainties are the norm. But I work in this environment because we usually have no choice.

On the other hand, BP, and those who are supposed to have regulated them, accepted a situation with huge uncertainties by choice. They knew they were, as MsJS put it, in a perpetual R&D environment. This is unacceptable.

Here's an article by William Saletan over at Slate that I like:

http://www.slate.com/id/2255929/

Key paragraph:

"Of all the lessons we can learn from the BP fiasco, the simplest, and the first we should apply to offshore-drilling laws, is this: Don't open any holes you can't close. "If the well site is too deep for humans to reach, drill a simultaneous relief well so you can plug a blowout promptly. If a relief well is too expensive, don't drill at all. Or you can keep robots on hand to shut down leaks. But they'll have to be better robots than the ones we're now watching. Today's laws don't come anywhere near this standard."


So what I want to see are hard steps to make sure that future laws do meet this standard.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 7:19 PM | Report abuse

An interesting take on this... what if the oil leak were in the Chesapeake Bay?

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/features/green/2010/06/what_if_the_gulf_leak_was_in_t.html

Posted by: -TBG- | June 10, 2010 7:36 PM | Report abuse

CP - I have some nice refreshing tea for you. And it's good stuff, I assure you, 'cause remember, I have a lot of British in me as well.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 7:40 PM | Report abuse

And here on page 106 of this PowerPoint presentation, we have some new estimates of the flow rate that represent what we know now.

By page 164, we'll know more and those of you who aren't comatose and/or covered in oil will receive those new estimates at that time.

Since this is a classified meeting, I'm going to insist that all doodles be turned in to shrink, who will review them and write a summary analysis for your personnel files.

Have a great evening, y'all.

Posted by: MsJS | June 10, 2010 7:41 PM | Report abuse

If the leak had been in Chesapeake Bay, they'd have been drilling in about 30 feet of water, and divers with snorkles and swim fins would have fixed it on Day 2 with a junk shot of crab shells, oyster crackers and Old Bay.

Posted by: Curmudgeon5 | June 10, 2010 7:43 PM | Report abuse

(this is directed at the Balt Sun blogger, BTW)

What if it were indeed?

If a well at the bottom of the bay did blow out, the engineering obstacles to stopping it would be orders of magnitude smaller and the problem would very likely not have reached the scale we see now.

Talk about "what if there were a comparable spill from a supertanker in the bay" (even though that's also nigh-impossible) all you want, but let's not have hyperbole running rampant. The blog post title makes about as much sense as asking, "What if the oil leak were in the middle of Kansas?"

*shrug*

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 10, 2010 7:45 PM | Report abuse

Why does it always make me smile when Brag posts?

TBG, gotcha. Give me time to reply properly. I'm so flattered that I'm flummoxed. :-)

Wilbrod, had the thread (kit) not ended I wanted to share with you my experiences with students in classrooms where the teacher signed (ASL) and spoke/taught simultaneously. The "normal" students learned that communication takes place seen, unseen, heard or sensed. We were privileged to teach children who are now looking and listening in all directions.

And my hat is off to Mr.A. for his latest report. When this heartbreak of a story arises in "my real life" I feel that I am informed. The kit and the boodle keep things in perspective.

Posted by: talitha1 | June 10, 2010 7:46 PM | Report abuse

Although, I wonder, do the British even drink iced tea? I mean brew it sure.

BTW - I was delighted to see that today is "National Iced Tea Day"


Hmm. I wonder if the Long Island kind qualifies?

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 7:46 PM | Report abuse

I think it was just to show the size of the spill, which most of us have a hard time really picturing. I don't think it was really "what if the spill had happened in the Bay."

I'm sure there are bloggers for midwestern papers showing the spill crawling over Indiana and Illinois and no one is saying, "yeah, but the well would be above ground!"

Posted by: -TBG- | June 10, 2010 7:49 PM | Report abuse

*No* the British don't drink iced tea. I'm with them.

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 7:52 PM | Report abuse

Indeed, TBG, I'm just tweaking the Sun blogger for inflammatory language.

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 10, 2010 7:53 PM | Report abuse

Let's ask Slyness. She should be here soon, I imagine.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 10, 2010 7:53 PM | Report abuse

I know, TBG. I was just having fun with it.

Posted by: Curmudgeon5 | June 10, 2010 7:55 PM | Report abuse

Although... I'm sure commenters in such a blog WOULD be making those comments, now that I think about it.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 10, 2010 8:01 PM | Report abuse

Daughter's albums arrived today. Now there's the difference between between then and now: ordering albums online and having them arrive in a BIG BOX.

The thing is... the smell. Remember that? When you opened an album? Someone recently noted that it was the "smell of anticipation."

Posted by: -TBG- | June 10, 2010 8:07 PM | Report abuse

The Brits, if they were consistent, would prefer their tea, as with other refreshing beverages, to be served at room temperature.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 10, 2010 8:09 PM | Report abuse

*Snort* During my term in England, and subsequent visits, I've grown rather fond of just-slightly-below-room-temperature beer, but I still put ice in my Scotch.

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 8:41 PM | Report abuse

Of course, we must remember that our room temp and theirs is about 10 degrees different, most semis still don't have central heating (or cooling).

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 8:42 PM | Report abuse

I'll give Brits in their pubs warm beer. Beg to differ on tea iced* in southern climes. It goes down smooth after a day among the ripening tomatoes.

*add mushed mint and a splash of bourbon and ju-lep!

Posted by: talitha1 | June 10, 2010 8:59 PM | Report abuse

I am not much of a beer drinker any more, but a good warm stout is hard to beat.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 10, 2010 9:00 PM | Report abuse

Great back story to being a referee in the upcoming World Cup matches. Apparently, you have to learn swear words in about 20 different languages.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/sports/soccer/11cursing.html?ref=global-home

Posted by: steveboyington | June 10, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

I'm not much of a Scotch drinker anymore. I do know that Scotch with ice in it properly goes by a different name.

Posted by: Jumper1 | June 10, 2010 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Spew alert.
Also, don't forget to mouseover.

http://xkcd.com/751/

Posted by: DNA_Girl | June 10, 2010 9:27 PM | Report abuse

Talitha, that class had hearing and deaf kids mixed together from an early age with a teacher who can speak directly to both?

I think that's an amazing environment and fairly rare in public schools.


Posted by: Wilbrod_Gnome | June 10, 2010 9:52 PM | Report abuse

Whackyweasel, the one that DNA girl linked to is called "Swimsuit Issue" and has a stick figure kid saying "What's this?" The dad rushes in saying that's his Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue and it's inappropriate for him too..

But the kid's already looking and says, "oh those look just like the ladies who get double-penetrated in the pop-up ads! But with clothes on! Gosh!"

Which explains the alt text. And why you're now going to lock up the internet from your kids.


Posted by: Wilbrod_Gnome | June 10, 2010 10:00 PM | Report abuse

Kind of fascinating to see an article evolve. The article is now quite a bit different than the version Joel linked to originally.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 10, 2010 10:01 PM | Report abuse

Nats beat the Pirates 4-2, completing a 3-game sweep, first of the season. Clippard, baseball's all-time geekiest looking player, bar none, gets his first save.

Posted by: Curmudgeon5 | June 10, 2010 10:02 PM | Report abuse

Geek. Baseball. Ice tea.

We shall survive.
Thanx, Mudge. 'Twas worried.

Posted by: CollegeQuaParkian1 | June 10, 2010 10:12 PM | Report abuse

"I think giggling would be a honest, spontaneous response showing that his work has touched the inner child within you, namely that three year old who used to scribble on walls."

Wilbrod, I'm afraid your kind interpretation would be true only if I'd been a snarky 3 year old...which could explain a lot actually.

Posted by: DNA_Girl | June 10, 2010 10:15 PM | Report abuse

I.can't.help.meself....

"Waka Waka (This Time For Africa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRpeEdMmmQ0

By Shakira

Enjoy

Copa de Mundo!

Posted by: omni3 | June 10, 2010 10:17 PM | Report abuse

Interesting reading. Rolling Stone on Obama, Salazar, and the spill.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/111965?RS_show_page=0

Posted by: Jumper1 | June 10, 2010 10:18 PM | Report abuse

I will follow the World Cup closer than most. I dunno why, but I love the spectacle it brings. The fact that most of the world goes nuts when most of North America doesn't is no deterrent for me.

I'll stick to my long-suffering underdog leanings. If the Saints can win the Super Bowl, then the Blackhawks can hoist Lord Stanley's cup, why can't the Dutch beat Argentina to win the whole thing.... in South Africa, no less?

Posted by: steveboyington | June 10, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

Not gloating. When the first (or second or third depending on how you are counting them) numbers came out, I pointed out several ways that the various methodologies could be underestimating the actual flow. Since then several scientists have said that their numbers were never meant to be a range, but a lower bound. As that they have proved right. The current estimates are well above the previous lower bounds.

They also pointed out the skimpiness of the data they were given to work with. Now Joel's story says they are swimming in data. Let's hope so. I've always wanted nothing less than clear accurate data with verification by disinterested parties, which BP clearly was not.

One of the more minor silver linings in this disaster will be an increased scrutiny over marine oil wells which I'm beginning to suspect are leakier than the oil pan of a '69 Dodge Dart.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 10, 2010 10:28 PM | Report abuse

One thing I struggle with are the various measurements. We heard about gallons, and then barrels. I visualise oil in bbls, or bpd, so the gallons (even Imperial) weren't so alarming. Now I don't know how the then and now compare. But I'm really mad. Perhaps needlessly. It may be that, as RD_Padouk says, things are better now, but I just can't judge.

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 10:29 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of gloating, here is the closing line from that excellent Rolling Stone article:

'...the disaster in the Gulf will serve as a lasting and ugly reminder of the price we paid for our addiction to oil. "It was a bargain with the devil," says Steiner, the marine scientist who helped lead the response to the Valdez disaster. "And now the devil is gloating."'

Posted by: yellojkt | June 10, 2010 11:06 PM | Report abuse

yello, have you (I know you ride your bicycle for exercise and recreation and so do I) stopped driving or taking a flight to someplace you want to visit? No? Me neither. I'm implicated. But I don't speak about our pushers as evil. They're just giving me my energy fix, and I'm paying for it.

Posted by: Yoki | June 10, 2010 11:12 PM | Report abuse

I'd say the bargain Obama made with Salazar didn't work too well. The part about doing his bleeping job.

Posted by: Jumper1 | June 10, 2010 11:14 PM | Report abuse

DNA girl, that was tongue deep in cheek on the "positive spin." I was feeling snarky, too.

Posted by: Wilbrod_Gnome | June 10, 2010 11:22 PM | Report abuse

When coffee spills at BP:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2AAa0gd7ClM

Posted by: yellojkt | June 10, 2010 11:41 PM | Report abuse

Yoki,
I've got a pretty ugly carbon footprint. I drive 30 miles to go ride my bike for 20. I work in a niche of an industry where power consumption is measured in megawatts. I fly regularly for both business and pleasure. I own a car with mileage in low 20s mpg because I occasionally need the cargo capacity. I habitually leave lights on when I leave a room. I am no role model.

Oil in and of itself is not evil. Natural resources can be extracted and used responsibly, but oil is ultimately an unsustainable commodity. The petroleum economy will eventually be replaced by something else because it has to. Until then, we should do the least damage we can.

I don't think my participation in the economy implicitly makes me a co-conspirator in the GOM oil spill. I expect companies to behave and act responsibly or suffer the consequences. If I were given the choice of having to spend an extra dollar a gallon for gas or have the environment ruined, I would pony up the money. I wasn't given that choice, BP made it for me.

Their profit-driven corporate culture made them cut corners in safety for a competitive advantage. I didn't make them do that. They did it on behalf of the thousands of British pensioners that rely on dividend checks for their retirement. Or so the PR astroturf campaign is telling us.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 10, 2010 11:55 PM | Report abuse

Now that I am off a plane and able to google and backboodle:

My latest POOMA estimate is 20,000-30,000 based on various numbers pertaining to the top kill that have slipped out as well as a general "BP is bunch of lying bast@rds" adjustment factor.

Posted by: yellojkt | May 28, 2010 8:49 AM | Report abuse

From the summary of the plume team report issued today:

"The corresponding mean (dark blue diamond) is 26,500bbl/day,
and the standard deviation is 6,250bbl/day."

http://www.doi.gov/deepwaterhorizon/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=34800

Different methods, same result. I really should go to Vegas.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 12:03 AM | Report abuse

Well, then, yello, we agree.

Silly, I can't find an original recorded performance of this when Arlo was young. I think because there weren't video cameras and cell-phone cameras, way back when. But, I remember seeing him in Berkley. So.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5_7C0QGkiVo

Posted by: Yoki | June 11, 2010 12:04 AM | Report abuse

They FINALLY quit playing hockey? Who won?

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 12:06 AM | Report abuse

Hawks. Duh!

Posted by: Yoki | June 11, 2010 12:09 AM | Report abuse

I gotta tell you Boodle, I love living at this latitude(!). It is after 10:00 pm and the sky is not entirely dark, more sort of crepuscular. And if I were further north, it would be so, later.

No wonder I don't sleep. When I was an Edmontonian, back when, it was after midnight, mid-summer.

Posted by: Yoki | June 11, 2010 12:13 AM | Report abuse

"BP spokesman Andrew Gowers said Thursday by e-mail: "There is no secret about this. It was our contribution to the Unified Command estimate that was published shortly afterwards. We have always said we made a contribution to that estimate but that it was an estimate by the Unified Command."

What a stench coming from the crock, isn't this is a pretty pile of steaming sh!!t? Unified Command. I'd like to make a contribution to the Unified Command, but I flushed earlier today.

But W T F, who is surprised BP comes back to the Obama administration's decision to meld, to fuse, to coalesce, folie a deux, danse macabre, cohabit a web site, literally fly wing for, become codependent to (boot on the neck of the people we are enabling), the embrace, the threat, we can't live without you but we are so mad....oh this is going to get ugly. People, this has not even started.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:14 AM | Report abuse

I didn't even now Atlanta was in the playoffs. Is Dominique Wilkins still playing for them?

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 12:15 AM | Report abuse

interesting twofer, same show. likely the former leads to the latter. Pete Townshend sitting in. watch only if you have 20 or so min. to spare.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20dic8S3cWI

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=de1Miicm3Bc

51 days and the estimates of 20k plus bpd from the blowout are just becoming consensus? someone has some serious 'splainin to do. one of the ledes on the front page has bp execs summoned to the WH. maybe there'll be a can of whoopa$$ in the room.

Posted by: -jack- | June 11, 2010 12:37 AM | Report abuse

"The question of how much oil is pouring into the gulf has been a nagging one for weeks, especially since early estimates from BP and the government proved woefully low." NYT

a nagging question

estimates from BP and the government proved woefully low

BP and the government

Beshishendes Scheisspeil.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:50 AM | Report abuse

shrink,
My German is not what it once was and it was never much, but is the rough translation of that "No sh.., Sherlock!"?

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:05 AM | Report abuse

some will blame the officials from the coast guard and noaa for underestimating the effluent. bp had all of the rov's and instrumentation to make a reasonable estimate, and relayed that information to the government officials, who relayed those estimates to the press. after the rig caught fire, bp was on the record stating that the rig wasn't likely to sink. wrong a week into the incident, estimates were increased from an initial rate of 1000 bpd to 5000 bpd. yet another incorrect estimate. iirc, that same week, estimates from (i presume) hydrogeologists estimated the flow rates in excess of 12k bpd. bp still held all of the cards and continued to feed info to the government. now the best estimates are 3000% percent higher than the original estimate. something stinks. i guess that the up side of this is that there is now enough oil in the water to gain an understanding of how the currents in the gulf circulate. we're off to holiday on the barrier islands off wilmington, nc in july. i have good reason to be wary of the water quality.

Posted by: -jack- | June 11, 2010 1:12 AM | Report abuse

It is Hamburg slang.
It does not translate into something the WaPo would accept, otherwise I would have put it in our language.

Earlier someone referenced Union Carbide as a model of corporate responsibility. They paid the $600M and more. That was the amount ordered by the Indian Courts, for Bhopal, forever, final offer. I hope no one will be offended if I suggest judges are For Sale by Owner in India.

Data point. In this terrible recession, one video game product netted $1B last year.

I don't think people get numbers with lots of zeros behind them.


Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 1:13 AM | Report abuse

I don't have time for complete back-boodling, so maybe I missed something, but: these new numbers for flow rate don't seem spectacularly bigger than the ones we had after it became clear that the 5000 bbl/day rate was insupportably small. Mainly, they seem a little bit more closely defined. The gusher from the top of the BOP looks horrid, of course, vastly bigger than what we had been seeing from the cracked riser. However, by chopping off the riser, the spew has been entirely limited to a single opening. The dramatic increase in apparent flow is partially, perhaps largely, accounted for by consolidating the separate leaks into one uber-leak. Which increased by ~20% due to scissoring the riser (according to the BP estimate; BP's reliability on such things suggests it is a lower limit). It's gushing at 5-6 times the rate we had been told for a week or two --> which is better than the pessimistic factor of 10 quoted by some of the folks that have appeared in WaPo articles in the past several weeks. Half as bad, in fact. So, take heart!

Posted by: ScienceTim | June 11, 2010 1:14 AM | Report abuse

For fans of planes, racing, and near crashes:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CB27K-wIsM&feature=player_embedded

Amazing that someone pulled that out.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:17 AM | Report abuse

SciTim,
The exponential growth in the estimate revisions has been slowing, suggesting to me that we asymptotically approaching something close to the 'true' number.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:23 AM | Report abuse

And I am 100% behind this rant:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=om7O0MFkmpw&feature=player_embedded

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:29 AM | Report abuse

SCC: I want to report a missing 'are' in my last post. It was last seen with the 'k' from 'know' earlier this evening. And no, I haven't been drinking. I alwasy type this poorly.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:36 AM | Report abuse

No worries, I misspelled "spiel", I have almost crashed aircraft in ways that make that guy look like he did it on purpose.
The Russian saying, "we drink, we spill." applies even if we don't drink.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 1:41 AM | Report abuse

>>Beshishendes<<

Clearly not, schrink.

Posted by: Yoki | June 11, 2010 2:40 AM | Report abuse

I'm very sorry, but when I hear "Waka Waka," I think Fozzy, not Shakira... *L*

*back-to-backBoodling-before-the-Dawn-Patrol-trek Grover waves* :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 5:21 AM | Report abuse

Here is a suggestion for "beshishendes ...": sh*tty game. Yes.

Posted by: gmbka | June 11, 2010 6:03 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, Boodle.

I have no idea why I'm here for dawn patrol.

Posted by: Moose13 | June 11, 2010 6:34 AM | Report abuse

shrink, watch out. I bet there are some World Cup officials that would show you the yellow for that.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 6:46 AM | Report abuse

The young sailor has been found alive, a little good news for the morning.

Glad you here Moose.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/missing-teen-sailor-found-alive/article1600279/

Posted by: dmd3 | June 11, 2010 7:28 AM | Report abuse

Thanks for the good news, dmd.

And thanks for the 1:29 yello. I'm glad I was done with my coffee when I read it, because my laptop would've been toast otherwise. (See? I do read your links. Sometimes.)

*It-ain't-dawn-but-it's-my-day-off-what-did-you-expect Grover waves*

Posted by: Raysmom | June 11, 2010 7:41 AM | Report abuse

Chris Cillizza explains that South Carolina politics has always been nuts.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/governors/the-five-nastiest-south-caroli.html

But this Alvin Greene guy's story is more than has been told.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 7:42 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, all. It is wonderful to be home; I slept so well in my own bed!

I can categorically state that iced tea is not an option in the U.K. Also, that Europeans know NOTHING about air conditioning and they are stingy with ice. Even when the temperature is north of 90.

The Geekdottir had a gallon of iced tea made when we got home, and I poured a glass as soon as I came through the door. Ahhh...

We had a great time. I took lots of pictures (but not as many as Yello does). I was hoping the news about the oil spill would be better when we got back, but I'm thankful for any progress.

Interestingly, Smart was showing an all-electric FourTwo at the fire trade show. Not a car for the open road, but it would do in town. We also saw a laptop briefcase with a solar collector on its side. Dunno how effective/efficient it would be, but a good concept.

Posted by: slyness | June 11, 2010 7:43 AM | Report abuse

Yes indeed, dmd, good news on the young sailor.

Moose, perhaps the sweetly tweeting birds, enjoying this delightful late spring morning, awakened you to enjoy the Dawn Patrol? :-)

The updated home page piece on the S.C. Democratic Senate candidate just gets stranger and stranger... *continued raised unibrow*

shrink, es gibt viele Boodlers dass Deutsch spricht, nicht war? :-)

The Sun blogger accepted my comment but continues his veiled "I want the page hits" (and who doesn't, really?) explanation. *shrug*

*wandering-through-yet-another-short-staffed-Friday Grover waves* :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 7:50 AM | Report abuse

(checking my copyright on Grover waves) :-)

And in the "Caveat Emptor" Dept. --

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/10/AR2010061005366.html

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 7:55 AM | Report abuse

After checking out some other media outlets I'm frustrated that these results are being misunderstood - especially in the various comments sections. So, for the record.

1 - These new estimates refer to before the riser was cut.

2 - None are definitive, and the variability speaks to the challenges of such estimates.

3 - There is, as yet, no evidence of either gross incompetence nor deliberate manipulation by anyone. This, of course, might change, but right now it seems the sin was undue optimism.

4 - We still don't know exactly how much oil is spilling into the gulf after the riser was cut and the cap was put into place.

5. A final assessment of the cut and cap strategy will not be possible until we see how this all plays out. And even then, we probably won't ever really know.

There. That otta do it.


Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 11, 2010 8:02 AM | Report abuse

*head in hands*

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/nyregion/11mosque.html

Some people... And I mean the neighborhood idjits, of course. *SIGH*

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 8:10 AM | Report abuse

The Charlotte Post and Courier had this week's winner in the category of Most Mind-Numbingly Stupid Statement By a Politician, in regard to Alvin Greene's puzzling Senate primary win:

'State Sen. Robert Ford, D-Charleston, who lost his gubernatorial bid Tuesday, said race could have played a role. The Democratic primary electorate is majority black, as is Greene, but not Rawl. "Vic Rawl had money, but he didn't have enough. He wasn't able to identify himself with black voters," Ford said. "No white folks have an 'e' on the end of Green. The blacks after they left the plantation couldn't spell, and they threw an 'e' on the end." '

Which might come as a surprise to Graham Greene. Or Lorne Greene. Or, well, this guy:

http://www.jeffgreene.com/

Posted by: rashomon | June 11, 2010 8:12 AM | Report abuse

That's pretty ugly ScottyNuke. I take solace from the fact that people who show up at such meetings are not representative. They are self-selected zealots.

Posted by: RD_Padouk | June 11, 2010 8:19 AM | Report abuse

Scottynuke, I think the biggest issue is that so few Americans really know any muslims. In that situation, it is easy for people to think all of them are bad.

That is no excuse, but with all the folks telling horror stories about all the muslims around the internet/talk radio campfire, it eliminates any ability for people to say "Wait, I know muslims, and they aren't like that."

Looks like the folks in NYC aren't interested in knowing any, either.

Give America a few years. My guess is Americans under the age of 40 or so are less likely to be as xenophobic. Patience.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 8:33 AM | Report abuse

*pointing at S. Palin and the entire Arizona legislative/executive complex and putting my head back in my hands*

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 8:43 AM | Report abuse

Scotty I saw a news clip on that issue a few days ago, sad indeed.

Posted by: dmd3 | June 11, 2010 8:51 AM | Report abuse

Good morning, y'all.

Warm muffins, coffee and OJ on the table.

I got to watch Wednesday night's hockey game again last night. One of the local cable stations reran it.

Way back in late April, I recall a kit in which Mr. A expressed concern that the leak rate might be more like 50,000 bbls per day. I hope we don't return to that number.

Grilled raspberry chicken on fresh spinach for lunch today.

Our local Irish pub is sponsoring World Cup parties throughout the tourney. Should be a lot of fun. Noisy, but fun.

Posted by: MsJS | June 11, 2010 9:11 AM | Report abuse

'Morning, Boodle.

Just read the Cilizza piece on the five worst South Carolina campaigns. Guess which political party was the offender in ALL FIVE cases? Hint: It wasn't the Whigs. Or the Dems. Not the Green Party. Not the Socialist Party. Wasn't the Greater Charleston Peace/Action Committee. Wasn't the Investigate UFOs Party. Not the Birthday Party. Not the Party Hearty Party.

Second hint: the late still-to-be-reviled Lee (R-Devil's Spawn) Atwater had a hand in two of them.

I'm glad that girl sailor is safe, but let me go on record as being firmly opposed to such foolish stunts as trying to be the "youngest" person to sail solo, non-stop, around the world. I think it is a foolish and meaningless accomplishment when done by an experienced adult, let alone a 16-year-old. Gender isn't an issue. No sailor, of any age or experience, ought to be sailing solo in a 40-foot boat in the southern Indian Ocean at that time of year, which happens to be hurricane season. To get to her, they had to charter an Airbus 330 (a four-engine airline, because only such a plane had the range) that had to fly five hours just to get out to her approximate position, and an 11-hour mission -- just to overfly her and tell her help was on the way. Her boat had been dismasted, and she rode out several days in 40-foot waves. That's just plain crazy.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

RD,
All very valid points (especially item 1), but your item 3 is still very contingent on the meaning of 'incompetence' or 'deliberate'. From Joel's article:

///An internal BP document marked "confidential" shows that the company on April 27 had arrived at three estimates for the size of the spill: low, best guess and high. The calculations were based on satellite imagery of the slick. The low estimate was 1,063 barrels a day. The best guess was 5,758 barrels. The high estimate was 14,266 barrels. ///

Their initial internal guess was mare than an order of magnitude wide and the top end was less than half of the current estimates. That's missing it by a pretty wide mark. The real error here was in not reporting the possible range. A possible spin on it could have been "We don't know how big it is yet. It could be 1,000 barrels a day. It could be ten times that." By handing off their numbers to the Coast Guard and letting them release the numbers under gummint imprimatur it gave a false validity to what was a very wild guess.

Also, the surface mapping groups have consistently come up with the lowest estimates. It seems that oil from a mile underwater takes its sweet time surfacing so the area method is not particularly valid for this type of spill. While there clearly haven't been enough deep water spills to have a history for this, internal MMR reports clearly hypothesize that oil could get trapped in thermal and saline clines and not show up as surface oil. While there was a general fudge factor for evaporation added, BP managed to ignore and hide all the unsurfaced oil. Dispersants have been in use since May 14th. Was the effect of these chemicals properly relayed and explained to the area mapping group?

A good bit of the shady process is BP laundering numbers through the less than technical savvy Coast Guard where all the caveats, provisos, and quid pro quos get stripped off. The fine print where the task groups say they have no idea what the upper bound is got lost by the time it reached the press, including our own Joel.

Again, not to impugn the integrity of the very smart people on these tasks forces, but they were cherry picked by BP and the Coast Guard and given very selective and sketchy information. The Rolling Stone article refers to NOAA estimates of 64,000 to 110,000 barrels per day. How did those numbers never make it through the chain?

While it is unfair and improper to attribute to malice what can be explained by incompetence, there are elements of both at work here. What the exact proportion is, like the true extent of the spill, may never be clearly known.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 9:22 AM | Report abuse

mudge,
Every time I hear about one of these 'youngest ever' records, I recall the poor girl trying to fly around the world who crashed attempting a very hazardous take-off which seasoned pilots would have avoided. A tragic result avoided this time, but just barely.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 9:29 AM | Report abuse

mudge, I'm hoping that her parents get stuck with the bill for the search and rescue efforts.

Posted by: rashomon | June 11, 2010 9:36 AM | Report abuse

Toles has this nice little rant beneath his cartoon today. I need to start reading more of his commentary. (Never mind the cartoon.) The last graf:

"But mainly I'm annoyed right now about the "enthusiasm gap" between liberals and conservatives. It's probably not even real, since the media says it is, but it's annoying me, anyway. I'M enthused every day when I look down 16th street and see a White House that doesn't have a careless ideologue living in it anymore. We now have a health-care bill, probably some restraint on Wall Street soon, and some progress on climate, through the EPA if nowhere else. And at least a temporary respite from a new crop of Samuel Alito-type appointments murmuring "it's not true!" whenever hearing that money ISN'T speech or corporations AREN'T actual people. And I'm enthused about every day that President Palin hasn't moved in yet. Think about THAT for a bit, oh ye yawners."

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/tomtoles/?hpid=opinionsbox1

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 9:41 AM | Report abuse

Desperately need to vent, lane closures all major highways!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/g8-g20/toronto-traffic-chaos-looms-during-g20-summit/article1600439/?cmpid=rss1&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheGlobeAndMail-Front+%28The+Globe+and+Mail+-+Latest+News%29&utm_content=Google+International

Posted by: dmd3 | June 11, 2010 10:03 AM | Report abuse

dmd, I sympathize.

When Oprah closed down much of the east side of downtown Chicago with her season opener last fall, a lot of folks were miffed.

Even more of the downtown area is closed today for the Blackhawks parade and party. Fewer seem to be complaining, though.

Can you avoid going into the impacted area?

Posted by: MsJS | June 11, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

*faxin' dmd a non-black helicopter* :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 10:20 AM | Report abuse

I'm thinking Joel's getting ready to post a World Cup kit, so I'll start now...

On last night's rerun of 30 Rock, mention was made of a sports channel's show called Sports Shouting (a parody of ESPN's Around the Horn). I slowed down the TiVo to read the scrolling sports "news" that ran across each shouters portion of the screen. One of them was this:

WC Qual: SWE 0-DEN 0/GER 0 POL 0/POR 0 SPA 0

Here's a great interactive guide to soccer, provided by The Onion. Mouseover the little Onion logos on the diagram for details...

http://onion.com/dupY1p

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 10:22 AM | Report abuse

Mudge, regarding the sheananigans in SC politics, here is my thought.

If the SC Dem party was strong enough, it could not be toyed with like a cat with cricket. These shenanigans are perpetrated by the bully party, but are only able to occur because the bully party is so dominant.

From what I hear, SC politics is really broken along racial lines. That feeds into itself, and is hard to reverse.

The US has open borders and freedom of movement. SC will attract like-minded folks and push out non-rubes in that system. That is the goal of the bully party. There are other states that things happen in reverse. Freedom of movement perpetuates those conditions.

I have said it before. I have no ill will towards SC. When people move to SC from elsewhere because they want to assemble with birds of a feather, that only helps the rest of us mainstream/normal folks everywhere else.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 10:22 AM | Report abuse

I do not go downtown, although the traffic congestion for downtown starts in my city. It is the insanity of the placement of the G20, and the money spent which has gone from the necessary to ludicrous and have a mentioned lately I am not a fan of our PM :-)

dmdspouse goes downtown everyday, the alternative would be to take a train - but it is faced with delays because the main train station is in the security zone - the main commutor station with links to the subway!

Posted by: dmd3 | June 11, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Today's cheap shot at the expense of World Cup soccer:

http://wpcomics.washingtonpost.com/client/wpc/ba/2010/06/11/

Actually, less a cheap shot than a valid observation.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 10:27 AM | Report abuse

I shall not comment on SC politics, as I live in the Land of Incarcerated former Governors.

Posted by: MsJS | June 11, 2010 10:30 AM | Report abuse

They just had a G20 in downtown Pittsburgh and nobody complained or whined. Much.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Still null-null in the first half of the opening S. Africa/Mexico match, BTW...

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 10:32 AM | Report abuse

steve, your analysis of the SC campaign is fundamentally incorrect, because in four out of five of the cases, the nastiness was intra-party, Repub against Repub. They weren't cases of Repubs doing nasty things to the (admittedly weak, outnumbered) Dems.

But yes, if the Dems were stronger, the Repubs would be pulling this crap on them too. To me what's interesting is these people do this crap to each other, not to the opposition party. That's what really speaks to their general morally deficient character, to my mind. I understand throwing mud at the other party. But what they do goes beyong mere mudslinging, and they do it- intra-party.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 10:34 AM | Report abuse

Just had a call from #2 dottir a few minutes ago, who called to ask me a technical baseball question, and in passing mentioned that the rabbit died. I said, "Cass, it's a really bad idea to call up your father and tell him the rabbit died." She didn't understand why, so I had to explain to her that back in the dark ages before women peed on a stick to see if they were pregnant, they had to test a rabbit, and the code was, if the rabbit died, that was often bad news for Sonny Jim (presuming a young, unmarried couple, of course, back when "the rabbit died" caused fear and trembling). She sorta got it. (She has four kids already, hence my apprehension. A fifth she does not need.)

This was an actual rabbit, and when they went in to feed it this morning, it had gone to Watership Down, or wherever beloved family lagomorphs go.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 10:42 AM | Report abuse

And I was all ready with congratulations, mudge!

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 10:44 AM | Report abuse

How did jokes go viral in 1910?

http://sundaymagazine.org/2010/06/passing-a-good-joke-along-the-wire/

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 10:45 AM | Report abuse

Guten Morgen Leute,
Grace Slick

Naja, damals, zwar, schon lange her, dachte Ich 'must Deutch verstehen Rilke zu erleben. Nicht zu glauben? Doch. Nein, aber, vielleicht ein Bissien wahr. Das war 1974, Maedchen dabei, erste Liebe. Sie hat mich alles wichtiges gelehrt.

Enough of that, it has been too long obviously, say, do any of you know how to do umlaut vowels and the double s thingy (forgot its name) that looks kind of like a cursive B?

Now, married to a Moslem, moslem friends, kindest, gentlest and most apolitical people I know. But there is a terrible dark side to many of their childhoods, the girls in particular. You don't want to know and I mean that. But that said, so no one goes bananas, I am all too aware of the fact Islam does not own the patent on horrible things, torture visited on children in the name of piety.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

mudge,
This lack of understanding of old-timey metaphors is going to bode poorly for the back-catalog of Joan Rivers-Billy Crystal movies.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rabbit_Test_%28film%29

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 10:50 AM | Report abuse

Mudge, just read the top 5 SC slime races. I'll give you that the slime is often GOP-on-GOP, but I think my point holds.

If there was a remote chance that the Dems could beat the GOP, the GOP could not act like blithering idiots all the time. They can act that way because they know that their do-everything-it-takes methods will not hurt them in the general election.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 10:51 AM | Report abuse

Scotty, are you catching the fifa.com matchcast?

The entries are written in a non-English language and then translated. Some of the translations are quite quaint.

"Vela dinks a deligtful ball..."
"Mphela is adjudged to be in an offside position."
"Vela finds himself in a good position..., but he gets caught in two minds..."

South Africa and Mexico tied 0-0 at the half.

Posted by: MsJS | June 11, 2010 10:53 AM | Report abuse

Let's see if this works. Mädchen. bißchen. Yup, seems to, unless it'll all disappear in transmission. On a Mac, hit option 'u', then the letter you want the umlaut over. ß is just option 's'. If not on a Mac, go buy one, then follow the instructions above.

Posted by: -bia- | June 11, 2010 10:55 AM | Report abuse

On a PC, open up "Word" and chose "Insert" then insert the symbol you want. Then copy/paste it into the WaPo text box. About a third of the time, it works. This is why Microsoft is clearly so vastly superior to Apple. (Not.)

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 11:01 AM | Report abuse

Good morning boodle! Our gov. T-Paw was on the Daily Show last night, but I fell asleep before his 7 minutes were up. MN politics frustrate me at times, but then I read about SC and feel much better. Nothing wrong with having the funniest senator, and Al Franken, working for us. Though the punditry seems to think T-Paw is just using all the prez talk to position himself to challenge Franken. Barring some unfathomable scandal on Amy Klobuchar's part she probably has her seat for life.

Posted by: frostbitten1 | June 11, 2010 11:09 AM | Report abuse

Speaking of Al Franken, when I texted Son of G at Constitution Hall last night (we were sitting across the hall from each other) to tell him that Al Franken was down on the floor looking for his seat and shaking hands with folks, the iPhone's auto-correction changed it to "Al Frankenstein."

Glad I caught it before I hit SEND.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 11:13 AM | Report abuse

Frost: from what I see of Pawlenty there is not much sizzle. Hard to see him get traction nationally nowadays when he has little charisma. You don't need charisma if you have an admirable history or record. I don't think he has one worth talking about.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 11:13 AM | Report abuse

No need for word, Mudge: click the Start button, select "Run..." and type in charmap.exe . That there little program lets you pick and choose all kinds of funny characters without invoking The Annoying Paper Clip Of Aggravation.

Now, on a Linux machine...

Posted by: byoolin1 | June 11, 2010 11:14 AM | Report abuse

SCC: Not last night; Tuesday night. Sigh.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 11:16 AM | Report abuse

Ţęšŧ

Couldn't find the little German double s in charmap.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 11:20 AM | Report abuse

steveb-you're right, no sizzle with Pawlenty. Besides, though he is loathed by many in MN for being too conservative his record would never hold up to the base in a nationwide race-far too moderate on that scale.

TBG-there you and Son of G go again, rubbing elbows with "my" senator. Even some reps hereabout are admitting Franken is exceeding expectations.

Posted by: frostbitten1 | June 11, 2010 11:23 AM | Report abuse

Leave it to Yello to INSTANTLY find the wrinkle: different fonts in the pulldown menu occasionally give different options.

It's there if you select Arial, f'r'instance.

ß

Posted by: byoolin1 | June 11, 2010 11:26 AM | Report abuse

My bad. I found it. That is my typography leßon for the day.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 11:34 AM | Report abuse

Frost: living in NH gives me a heads-up on some of the folks with national ambitions. They all come calling about this time. T-Paw has been here at least twice, as have Haley Barbour and the Newt. All received only passing mention. Nobody seems too excited amongst the GOP leaders here.

Seems to me the GOP base is full of pee and vinegar, and will try to go hardcore right this time, even in NH. I would not be surprised if either Jim DeMint or John Thune gets some momentum after their landslide wins in November.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 11:37 AM | Report abuse

I think Bia's advice was better. :-)

Müch ßetter.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 11:39 AM | Report abuse

Comedian Joe Mande has tweeted: "Watch the World Cup with your eyes closed. It sounds like British men commentating on a beehive, and giving the bees really ethnic names."

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 11:47 AM | Report abuse

I hope y'all don't mind if I say hello in plain English type with a pronounced Southern drawl.

Finally caught up on my backboodling. Household distractions have played havoc with my morning and now it's almost noon. *sigh* The Rolling Stone piece did nothing but add angst to my angsty mood regarding the Gulf but I'm glad I took the time to read it.

Wilbrod, remind me at some quieter moment to tell you about the school where I worked with teachers who sign.

Shrimp/asgaragus alfredo for lunch - dig in. See ya'll later.

Posted by: talitha1 | June 11, 2010 11:51 AM | Report abuse

SCC: asparagus

Posted by: talitha1 | June 11, 2010 11:53 AM | Report abuse

One of the many reasons I love the Boodle. It's not only a one of knowledge, it's one of technical knowledge. Solutions proposed and tested.

Without taking the Apple/MS bait (well, maybe a little), I'm going to sayy iPod and stb iPhone are superior to my Blackberry, I have experienced counter-intuitive moments with iTunes. On the dark side, generally placing a file in a folder would add it to an application. Having to create a pointer to a database for the iPod took me a while to figure out.

Likewise, why do I have to click on the word music in the
music TAB and then also click sync? one should be enough.

Of course, if I'd RTFM it might have helped.

Posted by: -dbG- | June 11, 2010 11:56 AM | Report abuse

Meant to mention that Turner Classic Movies is running an entire day of Cousteau Odyssey and Undersea World of Jacques Cousteau. From 6:00 to 8:00 is an overview program: J.Cousteau: First 75 years. Just thought some of you might like an interesting alternative to World Cup. Nice to remember when oceanography didn't immediately make us think "oil spill".

Posted by: talitha1 | June 11, 2010 12:05 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of pronounced Southern drawls, cheerleading camp is currently going on here. When the gaggles of HS cheerleaders march around campus chanting, their region of origin is particularly evident if the word they're spelling out has the letter "i" in it. It makes me smile, even though finding it cute makes me a bad linguist and aligns me with my condescending Yankee grandparents. But it really does sound cute!

Posted by: -bia- | June 11, 2010 12:06 PM | Report abuse

Well, that is a lot of characters. Thank you.

All but the upside down exclamation point.

Instead of a person saying they are not ready to call the Unified Command the BPObama Administration, there is this,

BP ≠ Obama Administration, or better

BP ≈ Obama Administration, so long as the Unified Command, whatever that phrase actually means is not

BP ≥ Obama Administration

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:07 PM | Report abuse

Ach, erste liebe, shrink. Gibst nicht mehr zu sagen, Ich war auch so bei mir. :-)

There are also a few Web pages that provide the ASCII alt- shortcuts for ß und so weiter.

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 12:12 PM | Report abuse

SCC: ES war auch so bei mir.

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 12:17 PM | Report abuse

In M$ Winblows you can install the German keyboard and toggle between English and Deutsch with the alt-uppercaseright combination.
Why would I know that? Hé! Hé!

By the way this blog may not have enough @%!#! bears but my yard has one too many. The bloody thing finally mangle my metal birdfeeder enough that I doubt I will be able to re-use it this time. It dared leaving tracks on sacred Mount Sanitation as well. The sacrilegious ba$tard.

Posted by: shrieking_denizen | June 11, 2010 12:21 PM | Report abuse

Tcha Alter*, erste Liebe ist ernste Liebe.

*Hamburg slang for "ironically agreed honored male friend"; like most idioms, translates poorly.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:23 PM | Report abuse

South Africa and Mexico battled to a 1-1 draw.

And FWIW, the new ball is a thing of beauty to watch in slo-mo. Either straight as an arrow or wacky knuckleball action. :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 12:26 PM | Report abuse

Erste Liebe? Ich denke, dass ich meine erste Liebesrückseite hatte, als die Hanseatic Liga die Hanseatic Nachbarschaft Verbindungs-und Glockenspile Gesellschaft war.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 12:31 PM | Report abuse

Scotty, this is something I have wondered.
When kicking direct or penalty kicks, why don't players go for no spin (no O'Reilly jokes please)? It is difficult, but not nearly impossible. It is less powerful, but unlike a spun ball, the knuckle ball is impossible to track. Any Fußball coaches im Haus?

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:34 PM | Report abuse

Here's another way, if it's something you are going to use all the time:

When you use either the character map or the insert symbol in Word, there is often a keystroke combo you can use as well. I forget where Word's is, but on the character map, it's in the lower right corner. When you want to insert the symbol, just press "Alt" and then that 4 digit code and it will appear.

ß is Alt+0223 for instance.
ï is 0239
ö is 0246
ë is 0235
ä is 0228
ü is 0252

Of course, the capital versions are different numbers. I keep a cheat sheet for inserting things like degree symbols I use often and such on my desk.

Posted by: MoftheMountain | June 11, 2010 12:38 PM | Report abuse

Direct kicks require spin while attempting to arc around the wall. Penalty kicks are almost purely up to chance, as long as the kicker keeps the ball on-net. The goalie either guesses right and has a shot at the ball, or not.

From what I've read, a skilled striker can boot this particular ball full-force but "just so" in order to get some knuckle action.

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 12:40 PM | Report abuse

Shrink, I've played a bit of futbol, and I think there is a big trend to try just that. It works best when you have a direct kick from distance. You have to be far enough to allow the goalie to get a bead, and then get goofed by the knuckling. The closer you are, such as in a penalty or just outside the box, it makes more sense to spin and aim rather than shotgun and knuckle.

Posted by: steveboyington | June 11, 2010 12:41 PM | Report abuse

Sagst du, als du Kind war,
Sand war Gebirge?

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 12:42 PM | Report abuse

Somebody did a study and determined that the best strategy for kicking a penalty is to go for straight-in. Action bias causes the goalie to jump one way or another most of the time even if the ball is coming straight at him.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 12:47 PM | Report abuse

Gar nicht als Kind, shrink, since I didn't pick up Deutsch until I was about 18. *L*

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 12:49 PM | Report abuse

Why don't they just pick up the ball and run it in?

*not terribly familiar with the finer points of soccer rules*

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 12:56 PM | Report abuse

dbG... there are many times I've wanted to see what's under the Music tab, but NOT sync, so I'm glad there's a separate click involved.

You also can set iTunes to automatically sync every time you plug in the iPod. But that can cause unexpected trouble, too, in ways I can't think of at the moment.

Let's just say I like having the sync under my control, not iTunes'.

And has anyone watched Die Strafe des Schweigens lately?

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 12:57 PM | Report abuse

AMG! (Ach, mein Gott!) My all-time favorite German movie! And the supporting cast is really excellent.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 1:00 PM | Report abuse

Memo to newbies: "Die Strafe des Schweigens" is a deep, deep inside-Boodle in-joke, and we can't explain it to you on the Boodle, at least not in sufficient detail without embarrassing a beloved Boodler. Just understand that a dozen or so people are laughing, and let it go at that.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 1:03 PM | Report abuse

Mudge... I'm sure some people can Google it and figure it out.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 1:08 PM | Report abuse

Gar nicht
Posted by: Scottynuke

s'tut mir leid, tatsächlich, meint'ich Mudge

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 1:15 PM | Report abuse

I wonder if teenagers in Germany use "AMG." I love it.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

Kein problem, shrink. :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 1:16 PM | Report abuse

"...kidnaps his young daughters, April and May, sells them to strangers, and accidentally kills his wife..."

If I posted any more, it would spoil the plot.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 1:20 PM | Report abuse

Was auch (pause) immer, TBG

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 1:23 PM | Report abuse

This just in from the penetrating glimpse into the obvious department,

"Connections are being drawn between animal abuse and other forms of violence." NYT

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 1:24 PM | Report abuse

Despite the fact that one imdb reviewer describes "Cellblock Sisters" as "a morally rich and valuable tale disguised as a sex flick" I am hoping against hope that Mudge's comment reveals that either his tongue is firmly planted in his cheek, or he has never seen any other German film.

Posted by: kguy1 | June 11, 2010 1:26 PM | Report abuse

kguy... Mudge hasn't even seen Die Strafe des Schweigens. Or Cellblock Sisters, for that matter.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 1:27 PM | Report abuse

Laughing. She's very right, kguy.

And I've seen "Das Boot" a couple of times. Und The Blue Angel/Blaue Engel, The Cabinet of Dr. Caligari/Das Cabinet des Dr. Caligari, Nosferatu, and The Tin Drum, though none of them except Das Boot remotely recently.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 1:37 PM | Report abuse

Whew, that's a relief. Not that I am such a cinesnob that I haven't seen a few Chix in Chains flix in my time, but "Favorites" and "Guilty Pleasures" are two very different things in my mind.

Posted by: kguy1 | June 11, 2010 1:39 PM | Report abuse

I've seen all of Mudge's German movies AND "Ilsa, she-wolve of the SS". Back when I wasn't old enough, in theory anyway, to see it.
It seems that every submarine in the world has "Das Boot" in their video collection. Pretty good recommendation.

Posted by: shrieking_denizen | June 11, 2010 1:43 PM | Report abuse

A 25-foot whale, almost certainly a baby (adolescent) humpback, has washed ashore on Jones Beach near NYC. http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/10/new.york.beached.whale/index.html?hpt=Mid

No immediate cause of death reported yet, but there is a lot of ship traffic there, and whales going north and south have to cross many heavily traveled east-west shipping lanes.

Posted by: curmudgeon6 | June 11, 2010 1:44 PM | Report abuse

The Blackhawks celebration in downtown TWC has officially ended on account of pouring rain. But everyone got their speeches in and the crowd roared.

The first 2010 Crosstown Classic game is supposed to start in about 30 minutes. Hopefully they'll be able to get the game in between the t-storms.

Posted by: MsJS | June 11, 2010 1:54 PM | Report abuse

shrink2,
I had thought that the link between cruelty to animals and greater sociopathic behavior has already been well established. It's one of the red flags social workers look for.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 1:56 PM | Report abuse

I'd add "M", "The Man Who Laughed", The American Friend", "Downfall", "Aguirre", "Metropolis", "The Lives of Others" to that list. And as a guilty pleasure bonus Werner Herzog's "Stroszek" which is the only film I've ever seen that starts with a demonstration of the flammability of flatus and then gets weirder from there on. Not John Waters weird, but pretty weird.

Posted by: kguy1 | June 11, 2010 1:56 PM | Report abuse

Let's not forget "The Battle of Britain."

Parts of it were in German.

Posted by: byoolin1 | June 11, 2010 2:04 PM | Report abuse

Which brings us to the question: when Germans (or other foreigners) are speaking to each other (in English) in an English-language movie, why do they have accents?

You know that they're supposed to be speaking their native tongue.

It works, I know, but when you think about it, it's pretty odd.

Posted by: -TBG- | June 11, 2010 2:08 PM | Report abuse

yellojkt, true, so much so it has been included in the "diagnostic criteria" for antisocial personality disorder for many years.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 2:09 PM | Report abuse

Wow kguy, that's got to be a Boodle record for repeated second-line text... What's yer secret? :-)

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 2:12 PM | Report abuse

New Kit on the rescued sailor!

Posted by: Scottynuke | June 11, 2010 2:14 PM | Report abuse

shrink2,
You didn't tell me the NYT article had a Bawlmer connection:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/13/magazine/13dogfighting-t.html

Pit bull flambè is not on my menu.

Posted by: yellojkt | June 11, 2010 2:16 PM | Report abuse

TBG. I have a theory: If they were speaking German, they'd speak *that* with a German accent. (Well, not the Bavarians, obviously*, but you know what I mean.)

It's just another example of the details that Hollywood always works so hard to get just right.


* I kid about our Bayerische friends. Besides, we all know it's the Schwabians.

Posted by: byoolin1 | June 11, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

Rainer (Werner) Fassbinder,

zum Beispiel,

Die Ehe der Maria Braun
Effi Briest.

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 2:19 PM | Report abuse

It's even funnier when American actors assume they'll sound more "foreign" if they use a bad English accent -- regardless of the ethnicity of their characters. One of my favorite dreadful examples is William Hurt as a Russian police officer in Gorky Park.

Also on my personal list:

Fitzcarraldo
Wings Of Desire and Far Away, So Close
A whole bunch of "Dr. Mabuse" flicks
Woman in the Moon

Posted by: rashomon | June 11, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

I actually think "Burden of Dreams", the documentary about the making of "Fitzcarraldo" is better than the film itself. I think it was made by the same guy who made "Werner Herzog Eats His Shoe" which he (Herzog) did on a bet. A Hushpuppy, IIRC.

Posted by: kguy1 | June 11, 2010 2:51 PM | Report abuse

For what it's worth I've added BP's confidential flow-rate estimate from April 27 to this kit in the form of a pdf.

Posted by: joelache | June 11, 2010 2:58 PM | Report abuse

Keeping busy.

Here in Florida, Gov. Crist has vetoed a nursing home regulation bill into which a provision requiring women seeking abortions to pay for an ultrasound exam had been snuck.

Posted by: DaveoftheCoonties | June 11, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

First are there not any other ships in the gulf that could take this oil? Get them from other companies, even if the feds have to seize the ships.

Second there is no possible excuse that the ships were not underway long before the cap was in place. BP knew they might be needed, and they knew the oil flow was likely many times the 5000/day figure. Why were no ships in route?

Posted by: Muddy_Buddy_2000 | June 11, 2010 4:08 PM | Report abuse

BTW has anyone seen the comments in the British Press about how we are beating up on poor BP?

Posted by: Muddy_Buddy_2000 | June 11, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

I would like to point out that allowing drilling in ANWR would not have prevented this well at all. ANWR will never produce enough oil to reduce world oil prices, and thus this deep water well would have been thought economical at the current oil prices.

Posted by: Muddy_Buddy_2000 | June 11, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

We need to trust them . When the contaian 30k and 60k+ is still leaking the numbers will be rivised again.

Posted by: oilless | June 11, 2010 8:08 PM | Report abuse

Yes if we drill more odds of this happening will go down

Posted by: oilless | June 11, 2010 8:10 PM | Report abuse

We need to trust them when they say we cant average better then 25mpg. They are right no?

Posted by: oilless | June 11, 2010 8:12 PM | Report abuse

We need to trust them when 90% of the wealth goes to the top 1% its better for the economy

Posted by: oilless | June 11, 2010 8:13 PM | Report abuse

We need to trust them we dont know how much oil is flowing.

Posted by: oilless | June 11, 2010 8:14 PM | Report abuse

oilless, I trust them, after all, the Unified Command sounds so martial, so on-the-ball, I hope they give us more bromides, my tummy is upset. Turtles drowned in orange scum can't appreciate the nuance, only humans can.

We must keep repeating...no one can know anything, we may never know anything, experts are confused so numbers are meaningless. No one wants this, therefore, no one can judge anyone. It is bad, but it might not be as bad as you think and so on and so on...

Posted by: shrink2 | June 11, 2010 11:44 PM | Report abuse

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