Forecasting the Election

Governor

With the latest polls showing both the Maryland governor and U.S. Senate races tight if not tied, pundits across the nation are weighing in on how tomorrow's election will turnout.

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball predicts a victory for both Democrats: Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley for governor and Rep. Benjamin Cardin for U.S. Senate.

On the National Journal's Hotline race rankings, analyst Chuck Todd today says Republican Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. is slightly less likely to lose and Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele is slightly more likely to win the open Senate seat.

Then there's the anxious bunch who worries that with a record number of absentee ballots out, we won't know a result for several days.

Tell us your predictions for the percentage breakdown in the governor and Senate races, and after the dust settles, we'll see who comes closest. For a tiebreaker, predict the black turnout.

By Phyllis Jordan |  November 6, 2006; 12:00 PM ET  | Category:  Governor
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Comments

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O'Malley 53 - Ehrlich 47

Posted by: John | November 6, 2006 12:32 PM

Governor
Ehrlich-49
O'Malley-47
Boyd-2
Driscoll-1

allowing 1% for the Diebold margin of error.

why? Because Baltimore has a strong anti-O'Malley buzz going.


I have to much bias to do a "fair" prediction on the senate race, but my guess on African American turnout will be 22% with our campaign getting a surprisingly strong % of the vote in that category, and doing far better than the polls are showing overall.

Posted by: Alex Zeese | November 6, 2006 12:46 PM

I'm sure there will be lots of dust to settle-in court that is, when the polls don't go the MD Democrat's way.

Posted by: BG from PG | November 6, 2006 1:00 PM

Ehrlich -51
O'Malley-47

Steele - 53
Cardin - 45

Black voter turnout, 40%.

Posted by: Rufus | November 6, 2006 1:18 PM

Senate:
Cardin 52%
Steele 47%

Governor:
Ehrlich 48%
O'Malley 49%

African American turnout: 23%

Posted by: corbett | November 6, 2006 1:45 PM

Ehrlich -- 50%
O'Malley -- 49%
Boyd -- 1%

Steele -- 49.6% (he will win by a few thousand votes, determined by absentee ballots)
Cardin -- 49.4%
Zeese -- 1%

Black turnout -- 24%, with Steele picking up 31%.

Posted by: MK | November 6, 2006 1:48 PM

Ditka 97.. wait.

Posted by: Anonymous | November 6, 2006 2:11 PM

O'Malley: 50%
Ehrlich: 49%

Cardin: 53%
Steel: 46%

B.V. turnout: 37%

Posted by: ALV | November 6, 2006 2:27 PM

O'Malley wins by 3-5 points.
Cardin wins by 5-7 points.
Gansler, Franchot win in landslides.

Republicans suffer massive losses in the state house and significant losses in the state senate.

US House stays same.

Posted by: Marylander | November 6, 2006 4:07 PM

Erlich: 51%
O'Malley: 48%

Cardin:53%
Steel: 45

B.V. turnout: 24%

Posted by: Dist21 | November 6, 2006 5:37 PM

Ehrlich-48
O'Malley-47

*More and more democrats (like myself) are finding that O'Malley has not proven himself worthy to vote out a satisfactory governor. I really don't know which way it's going to swing, but I am pretty certain this is coming down to 1 or 2 percent.


Cardin- 49
Steele 45

*In the end, a little too late for Steele mobilizing the black vote in PG county.
Black turnout: 21%

Posted by: Matt | November 6, 2006 8:01 PM

O'Malley 51
Ehrlich 49

And yes, for all you peope who don't live hear, Baltimore City is a much, much better place than it was 6 years ago.

Posted by: Ryan B | November 6, 2006 9:56 PM

The last 3 polls including one from the Balto Sun have showed the race for Gov a statistical dead heat. So it's anybody's guess. But since it's trending toward Ehrlich I'll put my money on him, 52 to 48. Cardin beats Steel 53 to 47. So it's a split decision, the fairest and right result.

Posted by: A1Ron | November 6, 2006 10:30 PM

When the Baltimore Sun runs a headling just days before the election that the "Governor's Race Is a Tossup" you know that things are looking pretty bleak at O'Malley headquarters. Ehrlich wins this 51 to 49, which is pretty much a romp all things considered this election year in blue state Maryland. O'Malley's people ran an absolutely horrible campaign, just like KKT last time. Unreal.

Posted by: tom | November 6, 2006 10:44 PM

We can always count on CHE to make us laugh with his off topic rants from the land of the moonbat.

Posted by: Rufus | November 7, 2006 8:33 AM

Ehrlich 51
O'Malley 49

Cardin 50.5
Steele 49.5

Black turnout 24%

Posted by: soccer dad | November 7, 2006 9:40 AM

And a special thanks to CHE for making us laugh aloud again with his off-topic rants from the land of the moonbat (the only place they listen to a fool like Michael Moore).

Posted by: Rufus | November 7, 2006 11:04 AM

O'Malley wins by 3 points.
Cardin wins by 6 points.

Posted by: Stephanie Dray | November 7, 2006 1:42 PM

Gee, we could have cut these comments off after the first guy.

Posted by: Anonymous | November 8, 2006 6:38 AM

Rufus and BG must be in tears today. The Republican Party suffered devastating losses throughout Maryland last night.

Posted by: Marylander | November 8, 2006 10:16 AM

The Republican Party is effectively irrelevant in Maryland for the next 4 years.

Posted by: Bearer of Good News | November 8, 2006 10:22 AM

As predicted, the MD Republicans lost at least one Senate seat, and between 8-10 seats in the House.

Posted by: Marylander | November 8, 2006 10:34 AM

Looks like John, our first poster, is the only one who came close.

If you want to send me your address, maybe I can scrounge up a souvenir (could be time for a Maryland Moment T-shirt?)

E-mail me at jordanp@washpost.com

Posted by: Phyllis Jordan | November 8, 2006 12:37 PM

What's that smell? Oh yeah, it's the sweet, sweet smell of victory.

Posted by: corbett | November 8, 2006 1:09 PM

Oh, and I should also add that with the Dem pick ups in the both state houses, Maryland - to the disappointment, I'm sure, of Rufus, BG, and MK - just got more blue.

Posted by: corbett | November 8, 2006 1:11 PM

HBO's documentary "Hacking Democracy" should be viewed by all voters. We will never have election integrity as long as these voting systems are counting our votes. You can go to google video and watch it now.

Posted by: Who knows | November 8, 2006 5:17 PM

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