Poll: O'Malley leads Ehrlich but could be vulnerable

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley (D) holds a 7 percentage point lead over former governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R) in a hypothetical 2010 rematch, according to a poll released late Wednesday by the nonpartisan Clarus Research Group.

The spread -- 47 percent to 40 percent -- is about the same as that by which O'Malley prevailed in the 2006 election. But Clarus concludes that the Democratic incumbent could be vulnerable, as economic and state fiscal issues are a drag on his re-election prospects.

On a separate question, 39 percent of voters said they want to see O'Malley re-elected while 48 percent say they would like for someone new to win.

"O'Malley is favored for re-election because of Maryland's strong Democratic tilt," said Ron Faucheux, president of Clarus Research Group. "But if the state's current economic and fiscal troubles persist, he could be vulnerable to a strong opponent."

Ehrlich is currently mulling a 2010 election bid. He said Wednesday that the Republican gubernatorial victories in Virginia and New Jersey will factor into his thinking.

In the Clarus poll, 48 percent of voters approved of the job O'Malley is doing, while 40 percent disapproved. O'Malley's marks on more specific job questions were mixed. For example, only 39 percent approved of how he is handling the state budget, while 47 percent disapproved.

The Clarus poll of 637 Maryland voters was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2. It was said to have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percent.