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The Fix: Kratovil seat grows more vulnerable

John Wagner

Maryland's 1st Congressional District is moving up on our colleague Chris Cillizza's list of seats most likely to switch parties in 2010. It is now No. 7. Here's what Chris had to say in The Fix on Friday:

cillizza_624.gif7. Maryland's 1st district (D): A new poll released by state Sen. Andy Harris' (R) campaign showed the Republican leading Rep. Frank Kratovil by a 52 percent to 39 percent margin, a very troubling piece of data for the freshman incumbent. While internal polls are rightly regarded with some skepticism, the fact that Kratovil didn't release numbers of his own painting a different picture suggests that Harris' numbers might not be that far off. Kratovil eked out a 3,000-vote victory over Harris in one of the best election cycles in recent memory for Democrats and it appears as though the district electorate, which gave McCain 59 percent of the vote in 2008, is ready to return to form. (Previous ranking: 9)

By John Wagner  |  December 4, 2009; 6:32 PM ET
Categories:  2010 Elections  
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Comments

Reading about the possible Ivey/Edwards primary, males me wonder if another Democrat could fare better against the Republicans than Mr. Kratovil?

Posted by: strupplawyahoocom | December 4, 2009 7:17 PM | Report abuse

There's a fallacy here. "True to form" would mean electing a moderate Republican like Wayne Gilchrest, the previous incumbent. Harris is farther to the right and lacks the credentials both Gilchrest and Kratovil have as defenders of Chesapeake Bay.

Posted by: george7096 | December 7, 2009 5:02 PM | Report abuse

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