Report: O'Malley is no longer a 'safe' reelection bet

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's reelection prospects have been downgraded from "safe" to "narrow advantage" by one veteran national prognosticator.

Former Maryland governor Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. (R), who is gearing up for a rematch with O'Malley (D), should be regarded as a "very serious contender," says the Rothenberg Political Report, a publication headed by longtime political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

However, Rothenberg says, "the burden of proof is still on the Republicans" to show that Ehrlich can win in a heavily Democratic state.

Rothenberg's reevaluation coincided with the O'Malley campaign's release Friday of an internal poll showing the current governor with a 10 percentage point lead over the former governor -- an improvement from the 6.5 percentage points by which O'Malley beat Ehrlich in 2006.

An Ehrlich aide played down the release of the O'Malley poll, suggesting it was a sign of a worried campaign. Ehrlich is widely expected to make his bid official late this month.