Let's talk a little about numbers here. The Phillies need just one more win to send themselves to the World Series. They have three games to do it, starting tonight. Baseball Prospectus, which has some very powerful calculators at its headquarters, gives Philadelphia an 84.9 percent chance of taking this series.
Sounds about right to me.
* Since the LCS became a seven-game series in 1985, 26 teams have taken a 3-1 lead. Twenty of those teams have hung on to win the series.
* The Dodgers and Phillies have played 12 times this year. The home team has won 11 of those match-ups, and to advance to the WS, Los Angeles must win the final two at Citizens Bank in Games 6 and 7.
* The Phillies tonight start ace Cole Hamels, who is 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his two starts this postseason. Previous time out against the Dodgers in Game 1, Hamels went seven innings, allowed six hits and gave up two runs. This year against Los Angeles, Hamels is 2-0 in three starts with a 2.57 ERA.
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