Thursday Three-Bagger: Dunn, Manny, Selig
1. To what extent do Adam Dunn's defensive shortcomings negate his offensive contributions? We'll let some folks who are smarter than us tell you (scroll to the bottom of the page to the "Value" section).
According to these advanced metrics, Dunn essentially was worth 27.4 runs of offense last year (Ryan Howard, by comparison, was worth only 19.9 runs), but cost his teams a whopping 28 runs on defense (primarily as a left fielder). Still, due largely to his durability, Dunn was valued at 1.3 wins in 2008, which the folks at Fangraphs translated to $5.9 million. (Read the "Glossary" section if you want to learn more about the methodology.)
2. Scott Boras has had some big wins (Mark Teixeira, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez come to mind) and some crushing losses (Jason Varitek) in this winter's free agent market. And Manny Ramirez could still go either way.
With Dunn and Bobby Abreu now off the market, the Dodgers have lost much of their leverage in the negotiations with Ramirez, and I figure they will now move fairly quickly to get a deal done with him before Boras can conjure up one of his patented "mystery" teams. Given what we know about the Dodgers' previous offers, I'm guessing two years $50 million with an easily triggered vesting option for a third year.
If that happens, would you call that a win or a loss for Boras? On the one hand, a $25 million salary would be higher than the $20 million Ramirez was set to earn from Boston in 2009 and 2010, before Boras engineered the trade to the Dodgers. On the other hand, Boras was seeking something closer to four years and $100 million.
I guess we'll call it a tie.
3. I'm not buying this, which sounds like the Commissioner trying to sound tough, an empty threat. It's one thing to force Jason Giambi, after a similar admission, to speak to Sen. George Mitchell (which Giambi grudgingly did), but it's another thing to try to suspend a player such as Alex Rodriguez for something that occurred when baseball had no penalties for steroids use. It shouldn't happen, and it won't.
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