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Postseason predictions -- or, as Boz calls it, 'sheer folly'

Here is today's capsule-look at the 2010 MLB postseason -- using an NCAA tournament theme that seemed like a good idea at the time I was writing it. And here is my story on the Phillies, whose starting rotation -- plus their experience, plus the fact their lineup is finally intact -- makes them the clear favorite as the playoffs get underway.

Here, meantime, is Boz's column, wherein my esteemed colleague demonstrates how pointless it is to attempt to predict baseball's playoffs.

However, since I have never been above exercises in pointlessness (see the playoffs capsules, above), I am here this morning to offer up my picks. A careful reading of the capsules (not that I am recommending that) would already familiarize you with these picks, but here is a simpler distillation:

Division Series
Phillies over Reds
Giants over Braves
Yankees over Twins
Rays over Rangers

League Championship Series
Phillies over Giants
Yankees over Rays

World Series
Phillies over Yankees

I realize I'm not exactly going out on a limb here, but the thing I didn't want to do was out-think myself. The Phillies are a great team, period. It's possible that, a few years from now, we may see their run, starting in 2007, as being on par with the Yankees' 1996-2003 dynasty, which featured six trips to the World Series and four championships.

It's worth underscoring a point I made in my story this morning: Two years ago, the Phillies won a World Series with Cole Hamels as their No. 1 starter. Now, Hamels, who is pretty much the same pitcher he was in 2008, is their No. 3. Fundamentally, this Phillies team has changed little since October 2008 -- they swapped out Raul Ibanez for Pat Burrell in left field, and Placido Polanco for Pedro Feliz at third base -- except for the double upgrade in their rotation, with the additions of Roy Halladay and Roy Oswalt.

For me, it's really that simple. They took a very good team and made it appreciably better.

Post your own picks in the comments section, if you are so inclined. (Boz, this means you, too.)

I'll be reporting from Philadelphia tonight on Game 1 between the Reds and Phillies. Enjoy the postseason, folks.

By Dave Sheinin  | October 6, 2010; 9:59 AM ET
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Next: MLB playoffs 2010: Rangers vs. Rays


'Glad to see you're stepping up the blog here. I really enjoy your analysis. I also thought your article yesterday on Strasburg was excellent. Please keep those coming as he recovers from surgery.

Posted by: Natsgal | October 6, 2010 1:20 PM | Report abuse

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