McCain: Poised to Make a Comeback?
John McCain's campaign had been all but declared dead earlier this summer after poor fundraising in two consecutive quarters and a major staff shakeup, but recent polling shows that the hemorrhaging has stopped. Could McCain emerge from these depths still a contender?
In the Washington Post-ABC News poll released this week, his support stabilized at 18 percent, enough for a second-place tie with newly-minted candidate Fred Thompson.
In national polling, McCain hit a low-point at 7 percent in a FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll in late August. Their new poll shows that he has since more than doubled his support and stacks up well against other Republicans on crucial candidate attributes.
McCain rates second (behind Giuliani) as the most hardworking, the strongest leader and on having the right experience. He ties Thompson for second-most "honest and trustworthy" and ties Giuliani (behind Mitt Romney) as the second-most "personally moral."
And these perceptions have yielded relatively high favorability ratings. At 49 percent overall and 61 percent among Republicans, McCain is viewed more favorably than either Thompson or Romney, though they are less widely known that the two-time presidential candidate.
But positive impressions nationally may not have carried over to key early voting states. The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg surveys of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina Republicans released earlier this week found that the Arizona senator faces large deficits in all three states.
In Iowa, a state where McCain did poorly in 2000, he has the support of 7 percent of likely caucus-goers, tied with former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee. He fares slightly better in New Hampshire and South Carolina, at 12 percent and 15 percent respectively.
But in all three states, McCain will have to prove his national appeal in order to break out of the pack. As of now, just 6 percent in Iowa, 7 percent in New Hampshire and 9 percent in South Carolina say he "has the best chance of beating the Democratic candidate." Whether his scaled-down operation can make the case for his electability remains to be seen.
Perceptions of John McCain:
Q: Regardless of how you plan to vote, I'd like you to tell me whether
each of these words or phrases better describe Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson or John McCain...
McCain Giuliani Thompson Romney
Has the right experience 26 35 12 7
Hardworking 20 28 12 10
Has clear stands on the issues 19 25 16 11
Strong leader 19 43 11 9
Personally moral 17 17 12 24
Honest and trustworthy 17 26 17 11
A real conservative 16 13 23 16
SOURCE: FOX News/Opinion Dynamics survey; responses among Republicans
By Jennifer Agiesta |
September 17, 2007; 1:48 PM ET
Polls
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Next: Candidate Wordplay
Posted by: kijcu@verizon.net | September 20, 2007 9:39 AM
One of the first problems the next president will have to address is the growing moderate population in America. The president must bridge the gap between republicans and democrats, and to do that he must listen to both sides. Only three candidates from both parties seem to stand out to me as being able to do this. McCain being one of them, Ron Paul another, and Obama as a third. The time has come where loyalties should no longer be to the respected parties, but to the American people. Arrogance and prejudice will lead to our downfall
Posted by: Ryan | September 27, 2007 2:43 PM
People are beginning to look closer at the candidates and seem to be looking deeper into the stands taken by the candidates. Most are finally hearing McCain's stark criticisms of the handling of the Iraq War aimed at Rumsfeld and Chenney. Its kind of funny that he had been seen as Bush's man on the war after being so critical.
Also, on imigration, some are seeing that a long term compromise solution is better than the stalemate and having no solution at all.
McCain has the guts and direct honesty to get folks on both extremes upset with him if he feels he is right and they may be seeing this too.
Posted by: MD | September 27, 2007 4:09 PM
Only a Fundamentalist "Cleric" would not call Giuliani, part of a mainstream Christian religion, a Conservative.
He is the only real Conservative running.
McCain is a sick extremist.
Thompson is a panderer.
Romney is ok, but untried.
Posted by: John Bailo | October 5, 2007 8:39 PM
When you align all the candidates and review their records, McCain stands out as being the one who won't back off when he is right and he will tell you how it is not what you want to hear. Of all the candidates both Dems and Repubs he is the only clear leader who has the experience, both military and political that will help bring some order back into the inside of the beltway in DC.
Posted by: rgtalam@houston.rr.com | October 9, 2007 4:13 PM
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The future success of McCain's candidacy will depend on America's success or lack of it in Iraq. Given McCain's strong and consistent support for the Surge, his candidacy is inextricably attached to Iraq. And given that American's appear steadfastly skeptical about the future in Iraq, it would probably take a major turn around in thatcountry to push McCain to the front position among Republicans.