Virginia's Two Warners
Senator John Warner's announcement that he will not seek a sixth term in office virtually cements Virginia's status as a 2008 battleground state.
The race to fill Sen. Warner's seat is likely to be one of the hottest in the nation. With Virginia more favorable towards Democrats than it has been in quite some time and open contests for both president and senator at the top of the ballot, the Commonwealth will surely become a focus for both parties.
On the Democratic side, attention has shifted to former governor Mark Warner, who flirted with a presidential bid last year, while on the Republican side, Rep. Tom Davis and former governor Jim Gilmore will likely both get into the race. But John Warner leaves little ill-will for the eventual Republican nominee to fend off. In a Washington Post poll in October 2006, two-thirds viewed the senior senator favorably, including 59 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of independents.
Over the course of his nearly 30 years in the Senate, John Warner faced only two serious challenges to his seat. The first came from within his own party, and the second came in 1996 from a man many believe could be his successor, Mark Warner. When the two Warners faced off, John emerged victorious by a mere five points.
The former governor would begin a campaign for Senate in the enviable position of being well-liked. In the October poll, 73 percent of Virginia voters had a favorable opinion of him. His support also crossed party lines, with 60 percent of Republicans and 76 percent of independents holding favorable opinions of him. Half said that had he continued and won his campaign for the presidency, he would have made a good president.
Mark Warner's high favorability is built on an astonishingly high approval rating earned during his term as governor. Just before the 2005 election, 80 percent of Virginia voters said they approved of the job he had done, compared to 62 percent who said the same of potential Republican candidate Jim Gilmore on the eve of the 2001 election and 66 percent of George Allen in 1997.
What's your take on the contest. Will either party's candidate be able to maintain voters' good will?
By Jennifer Agiesta |
September 4, 2007; 5:36 PM ET
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Posted by: Bert De Vore | September 5, 2007 5:36 AM
I hope Mark Warner runs. Agree with the commenets above. He was a great governor and I hope he runs against Gilmore....after all, it was Warner who had to clean up Gilmore's mess.
Posted by: Warner is the Big Boss Man | September 5, 2007 11:31 AM
Gilmore was a disaster as a Governor and a Presidential candidate. Mark Warner owes it to the citizens of Virginia to save us from that kind of gross incompetence.
Posted by: Steve O | September 5, 2007 5:24 PM
I think Allen should pick up where the Honourable John Warner leaves off, rather than have an opportunist like Mark Warner exclusively representing NOVA interests, reinforcing Kaine's harebrained tax scheme that is HB 3202.
Posted by: Austin | September 5, 2007 11:50 PM
I think the GOP will need a superstar to keep that seat if Mark Warner runs. I think Mark Warner would serve better as a Vice Presidential candidate than a Senator as I view him as middle man not conservative nor liberal. I would like to nominate Mr. Snow the former White House Secretary for the GOP Senate seat in Virginia. As a Republican I beg Mr. Gilmore to keep his butt out of this race cause he will not stand a chance against anybody. To put it this way even Rev. Al Sharpton would beat Jim Gilmore.
Posted by: Rafael Irizarry | September 6, 2007 5:53 PM
Correction- from the above comment. I meant to say Mr. Tony Snow about to become former White House Press Secretary. Ooops.
Posted by: Rafael Irizarry | September 6, 2007 6:00 PM
Mark Warner is a wannabe. He wanted to be senator, but lost. He wanted to be governor, and was fortunate to win due in large part to state Republicans running a lousy campaign. And he wanted to be president, but found out his name recognition outside of Virginia is practically nil.
Will he make a good senator? Who knows. I just remember two highlights from his term as governor. First, he was unable to get the NOVA tax bill passed, even after hardcore campaigning - and was never able to improve the transportation problems in NOVA after four years in office. And second, the incident where he was on a leisurly outing, fell off his bike and broke his collar bone reminded me of Jimmy Carter and the killer swamp rabbit. Wimpy, wimpy, wimpy!!!
Virginia needs a senator who can deliver results and has the respect of fellow Members of Congress. Mark Warner isn't that person.
Posted by: C.J. | September 6, 2007 6:20 PM
Allen understands VA commerce -- he's the only lawmaker who knows the Commonwealth inside and out, cf. VA's labor.
Posted by: Austin | September 7, 2007 3:50 AM
Tony Snow? That sounds very nice I like him very much. I know NOVA would love Mark Warner but, the rest of the state might not want him. Tony Snow Hum I like that.
Posted by: Paul Poe | September 7, 2007 2:11 PM
Tom Davis has a shot because he is well liked in Northern Virginia and can keep Warner from running away with all the votes up there.
He's also a true conservative on core issues yet has a proven track record of success in a liberal leaning part of Virginia. He's the only one who can eat into Warner's popularity with independants.
If Gilmore wins the primary, he will lose to Warner easily. He'll get the Republican base and that's it. He should realize this and stay out, allowing Davis to focus his efforts on Warner. Of course thats' wishful thinking because for some delusional reason, Gilmore thinks he has a chance.
Posted by: Paul S. | September 8, 2007 12:33 AM
Here's hoping Mark Warner runs for senate. Gilmore nearly brought the state to its knees with his lying tax math, while Allen turned state employment into a porkbarrel heaven. Warner's only failing was not giving so called Conservatives something for nothing.
Posted by: Bill H. | September 9, 2007 8:55 PM
Warner not only has the best chance of actually wining but it will be due to the one thing not mentioned here. His consensus building. Partisan politics turned congress into the miserable shape it is in now. Warner can get members of both his own party and Republicans to find the middle road towards getting something done on our myriad big issues such as social security, the war, the national debt, immigration, energy, environment. Virginia lost a lot with the retirement of John Warner but will gain a lot with Mark Warner.
Posted by: Joe C | September 13, 2007 2:57 PM
The comments to this entry are closed.
The problem of today's politics is that there is a scarcity of good candidates. If Mark Warner is interested in John Warner's seat he should get the backing of all Virginia's voter. I guess the adage,"the proof is in the pudding" applies very well here. A responsible, able and honest man, Mark Warner would ably represent not only Virginia but the nation as well. It is too bad that he didn't throw his hat into the presidential ring. He can count on my vote and I will work for him any time he needs me.