GOP Women for Clinton?

Earlier today, Hillary Clinton's top strategist Mark Penn estimated she could get as many as a quarter of Republican women to vote for her in the general election if she's the nominee.

Here's some perspective on that optimistic assessment . . .

1) If 24 percent of Republican women were to vote for Clinton in Nov. 2008, she would significantly outperform any Democratic candidate since 1972 among this group of voters. In exit polls from 1972 to 2004, an average of 9 percent of GOP women voted for Democratic candidates. (The average is 8 percent among Republican men.) The high was in 1996, when 15 percent of Republican women voted to re-elect Bill Clinton; the low was 2004, when 7 percent supported Kerry.

2) Clinton did win over almost a quarter of women GOPers in the 2006 New York Senate race: 22 percent of Republican women voted for Clinton, as did 18 percent of Republican men. For context, in 2004 New York Sen. Chuck Schumer won 32 percent of GOP women and 34 percent of Republican men. In 2000, Clinton won 14 percent of GOP votes (same percentage for women and men) in New York, under-performing Vice President Al Gore in the Empire State by about five points.

3) In the latest Post-ABC poll, 80 percent of Republican women said they definitely would not support Clinton if she were the Democratic nominee. Fewer said so of Obama or Edwards. Only 11 percent said they would vote for her in a general election match-up against Rudy Giuliani.

4) Also from Post-ABC: Just 8 percent of Republican women consider themselves "feminists." By contrast, a third of Democratic and 29 percent of independent women describe themselves that way.

By Jon Cohen |  October 18, 2007; 3:12 PM ET Polls
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GOP women should refkect deeply before deciding to vote for Hillary Clinton. Read "Hillary Clinton Nude" to learn more about Hillary,http://www.hillary-clinton-nude.com

Posted by: Sheldon | October 18, 2007 3:18 PM

We need to support Hillary Clinton, it's time a woman become president. She has lived an extraordinary life and has over come scandals and obstacles. People need to stop bashing her "ability" to run this country. She is just as capable as any man.

Posted by: ale_romero | October 18, 2007 4:02 PM

I think that Penn's numbers are high but not that far fetched.

When women of both parties are faced with making that decision I think Clinton will fare really well among Republican women as well as Democratic women.

One thing is to say that now before Hillary is the candidate. But once she is and shows she has a real chance of becomming President- and she will have from February to November to let people get to know her better-, I think those numbers of her supporters will go way up.

Women will go into that polling booth and say the hell with my husband, boyfriend etc. it's time for a woman.

Posted by: peter dc | October 18, 2007 4:15 PM

Vote for Hillary becasue she's a feminist? The nutjobs surrounder her right now scare the bejesus out of me and I'm a lifelong Democrat. If CLinton turns out to be the eventual nominee, I (and, I'f bet 40% of the Democratic base...Blue Dog Democrats) will desert the party en mass. Moreover, just to make sure the DNC gets the message, I'm going to vote a straight Republican ticket. In 60 years of voting, I've never voted for a Republican, but feminists and security moms and similar hysterical nutjobs have already caused quite as much harm as Bush.

Posted by: mibrooks27 | October 18, 2007 4:54 PM

Just more blatant spin from the Clintonites.

Posted by: Vote for John Edwards | October 18, 2007 5:08 PM

Who cares about those 24 percent anti-American Red Bushie deadenders anyway?

They'll all vote for Steven Colbert.

Posted by: Will in Seattle | October 18, 2007 5:43 PM

To mibrooks27 and people of your ilk: I'll pass on a bit of advice given to me from a lifelong Democrat, if you can't vote for the candidate, you pull the lever for the party--the Democratic Party. I don't know where you've been for the last seven years, but Bush and his cronies have done such damage to the country that I don't see our recovering in my lifetime. If the Republicans stay in power, all the Bush clones stay in power. Is that really what you want?

Posted by: ayoung | October 18, 2007 6:40 PM

re:
GOP Women for Clinton?

Hillary Clinton's high level of support from progressive voters is problematic. Set aside the fact that her candidacy will galvanize Republican voters and will be a gift to right wing talk show hosts. Or the notion that women should vote for her simply because she is a woman. (Using that logic -- all Jews should support Joe Lieberman, all African-Americans should vote for Obama, and all Mormons should be for Mitt. Hardly a good argument -- especially for progressives.) Or even the belief that she is tough. Do we really need more "tough talkers" right now. We already have one in the White house. Margaret Thatcher was "tough". We need a different approach to foreign policy than "talking tough"

The real question is, "is she the best candidate to change the way things are done in Washington?" I would submit that she is not. (I will admit that I was never a big fan of Bill Clinton -- yes, he was better than George W but that is faint praise). If we can expect more of the Clinton policies from Hillary, then we can expect more of such things such as NAFTA, telecommunications "deregulation", large contributions from lobbyists, Lincoln bedroom leasing, Whitewater, parsing words, and more of the neo-Republican policies of the DLC. (Just to name a few). Unlike Edwards, she still has never formally admitted that her Iraq vote was a terrible mistake.

Perhaps before voting for Ms. Clinton, one should ask themselves "haven't we had enough presidents from these two dysfunctional families?"

Posted by: Greg | October 18, 2007 7:09 PM

Count me as one of that 24% and, mibrooks27, keep in mind that all the Republican presidential candidates have said they will bomb Iran (except that Constitution-loving Ron Paul)

Posted by: mkolb | October 18, 2007 9:19 PM

GOP women arent gonna vote for hilary because shes a woman they are gonna vote because they believe she will better the country. If I was old enough to vote I would definetly vote for Clinton.

Posted by: GWPatriot | October 18, 2007 10:48 PM

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Joel Benenson
DATE: October 18, 2007
RE: Clinton and Republican Women

Hillary Clinton's pollster's assertion about her potential with Republican women is completely undercut by many recent public polls.

At a Christian Science Monitor Breakfast at the Capitol Hilton in Washington, DC, Mark Penn this morning asserted Clinton could expect to receive the votes of 24% of Republican women in the general election.

Because women comprise approximately 45% of the Republican electorate, Penn's statement, if true, would mean the Clinton would win at least 11% of the Republican vote.

Penn's assertion is entirely baseless and refuted by a number of public polls. Moreover, these polls also indicate sizable defection among Democratic women should Sen. Clinton be the nominee.

In a recent Cook/RT Strategies Poll, in a head-to-head match-up against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton won only 7% of Republican women voters.

Indeed, more Democratic women crossover to the Republican side to vote against Clinton-9%--than Republican women crossover to vote for her.

Moreover, when Gallup aggregated three months of polling data on Clinton (June to September 2007), they found that Clinton was just as unpopular among Republican women as she was among Republican men.

Only 18% of Republican women had a favorable opinion of Clinton, just above the 15% of Republican men who had a favorable opinion.

While it may not be her fault, Clinton appears to be as polarizing figure as ever, showing the least crossover appeal of any of the Democratic candidates.

When the Wall Street Journal asked Republicans which of the Democratic candidates they would be most comfortable with as President, Clinton was the least named, with only 14% naming Clinton, half the number who named Sen. Obama.

Worried about the effect Clinton could have on Democratic chances to maintain control of Congress, Democratic elected officials have publicly stated that Clinton's polarizing image would do damage to the hopes of other Democrats seeking office.

In an AP article several weeks ago, interviews with 40 Democratic candidates, consultants, and party chairs "from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races."

One Democratic Congressman from the West said that a Clinton candidacy would likely cost him his seat.

Indiana State Rep. Dave Crooks, a Democrat, said, "She's just so polarizing," adding that "she would be a drag" on Democratic candidates, pulling down their votes 3 to 4 points.

Said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C. Democratic Party, "The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular. I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't."

The one thing that Penn's polling does show, however, is that the Clinton campaign is already taking the Democratic primaries for granted, by apparently already polling general election voters before a single Democrat has cast his or her vote.

With more than two-and-a-half months before the first Democratic primary voter casts a vote, Clinton has evidently directed her pollster to prepare for the general election.

As Barack Obama said last night on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno:

"Hillary is not the first politician in Washington to declare 'Mission Accomplished' a little too soon."

Posted by: Peter | October 19, 2007 2:42 AM

HA HA HA HA!!! This is all so ridiculous!

Hillary's twin in France (Ms. Royal, also a socialist) was supposed to get a HUGE boost simply because she had a uterus, and women would (supposedly) forget about issues, taxes, and the like, and simply vote their gender because French women (supposedly) are driven by their emotions and hormones.

Well, when the dust settled, the MAJORITY of women voted for Mr. Sarkozy... BECAUSE HE WON ON THE ISSUES!

To say women are this simple-minded is quite insulting! Why, if it was that simple, Elizabeth Dole should have been president years ago!

To the Dems that hope this happens: intelligent women will vote intelligently, simple minded men and women... probably won't vote... and in the end, the U.S. will reject Hillary and her failed socialist ideas.

Posted by: otherrandomstuff | October 19, 2007 12:27 PM

In watching the Republican debate tonight, all I heard was the same old line of bull from a bunch of arrogant fools who don't have a clue. It is a smear and fear campaign blitz yet again smothered with more blatant lies. The pandering to the right was so wet, one almost needs a towel to dry themselves off. If this country has any guts to it, it will elect a woman as President. Mrs. Clinton will have her hands full in cleaning up the crap of the failed Bush administration, but I truly think she is more capable than all of the other candidates combined. Her VP should be Mr. Paul. He is her best counterpart... his position is much akin to hers and it would be quite the political boon to have a Republican VP underher wing. Here's to Mrs. Clinton!

Posted by: christy elmasri | October 21, 2007 11:01 PM

In watching the Republican debate tonight, all I heard was the same old line of bull from a bunch of arrogant fools who don't have a clue. It is a smear and fear campaign blitz yet again smothered with more blatant lies. The pandering to the right was so wet, one almost needs a towel to dry themselves off. If this country has any guts to it, it will elect a woman as President. Mrs. Clinton will have her hands full in cleaning up the crap of the failed Bush administration, but I truly think she is more capable than all of the other candidates combined. Her VP should be Mr. Paul. He is her best counterpart... his position is much akin to hers and it would be quite the political boon to have a Republican VP underher wing. Here's to Mrs. Clinton!

Posted by: christy elmasri | October 21, 2007 11:06 PM

I am going to vote for the Democrat no matter who it is, but I am PRAYING for a Clinton-Obama ticket. So long as Rudee Giuliani is not the winner I will be happy. I am from New York City and I can tell you that Rudy Giuliani is a cross-dressing racist liar who will say anything to get elected. I would rather have Bush for 10 more years than to have Giuliani for 10 minutes.

Posted by: New York City | October 22, 2007 10:05 AM

First of all, Mark Penn is a POLLSTER. IT WAS HIS POLL!!!

It was a POLL CONDUCTED WITHIN THE HILLARY CAMPAIGN, and Penn still didn't release the poll.

Later he revealed the poll was actually Independants who only lean republican, and the number was 13%.

Clinton's campaign's full of LIARS.

Posted by: jds | October 22, 2007 6:40 PM

In fact, i can't believe Wa PO is even giving Penn's report any validity by reprinting this tripe!

Posted by: jds | October 22, 2007 6:42 PM

Hillary can win.
Hillary can govern.
Hillary will put the USA back on the map.
Women of color are for her. Trust me.

Posted by: elw | October 22, 2007 8:51 PM

I think Hillary's biggest assets have nothing to do with her gender. She is by far the most intelligent, informed, and presidential candidate out there. I don't expect any of the Hillary Haters to convert but if she is the nominee in the general I think she is going to run circles around the GOP candidate. I have yet to hear a single concrete plan from any of the GOP candidates, just lots of "Get Hillary!'. Uh yeah...whatever.

Posted by: MarcMyWords | October 24, 2007 6:00 PM

I can tell you now that this woman will never vote for Hillary Clinton! She is the most power-hungry person in the race. She will propose more socialist ideas and programs than anyone previously and this country cannot afford it. The Dems seem to want to keep people down. They want to provide a handout rather than a hand-up. We need a country full of independent thinkers, rather than alot of ignorant folks latching onto skirts because they then do not have to learn or work. We need contributors to our economy. Give a person a fish and he eats for a day. Teach a person to fish and he eats for a lifetime.

Posted by: 40Something | October 26, 2007 1:12 PM

I don't mind having a woman president. But I do want to elect someone that is competent. Hillary Clinton has been a lousy senator. She has not acheived any major successes for the American people as senator.

She has however managed to help send our troops to Iraq. She has the blood of our troops on her hands.

Hillary Clinton has also managed to get rich from filling her pockets with the money of special interest groups and lobbyists.

Plus, how can she run this country if she can not teach her husband how to keep his zipper up?

Posted by: AndreaT1 | October 26, 2007 10:28 PM

I'm 75 and hope to be able to vote for Hillary Clinton for President. I believe most men are ready to vote for a women and I know women will be more then ready...get out and vote for for hillary.

Posted by: anna marie | October 27, 2007 4:59 PM

Um, What? GOP women are Conservative. Hillary is so left, she is practically Socialist. Just because she is a woman, does not mean the women of the GOP are going to blindly vote for her on that fact alone. I would like to see a woman president, but she has to be the right woman for the job. Dems might vote for her, but GOP women? What percentage of GOP women listen to talk radio, read political blogs, and listen to all of Hillary's speeches about raising taxes "for the good of the country"? If that answer is high, then there is no way a GOP woman would vote for her. She goes against everything the right stands for. There's no way. On the otherhand, if GOP women are uneducated, then yea, they might vote for her, but I seriously doubt that. This article is an insult to the intelligence of women, we don't vote based on emotion, we vote based on what is good for the country. Women are way too smart to fall for this.

Posted by: Melissa | October 30, 2007 11:29 AM

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