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Behind the Numbers: January 6, 2008 - January 12, 2008

1948 all over again? Evangelical Democrats?

We posted these two items to The Trail: What if the Polls Were Right? [Longer version of Post article] Democratic Pollster Peter Hart has a contrarian view on the latest polling kerfuffle. Hart, one-half of the polling team behind the NBC-Wall Street Journal poll, this afternoon posted an insightful online...

By Jon Cohen  |  January 11, 2008; 11:34 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (0)
Categories:  Polls  
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The Method or the Map?

Liberal blogs are aflame with speculation that Diebold voting machines rigged a Granite State victory for New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. Vote tallies from the New Hampshire Secretary of State show that she won by 4.23 percentage points in the counties using Diebold optical scanners, but lost by 5.81...

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  January 10, 2008; 7:39 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (0)
Categories:  Polls  
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About those Democratic pre-election polls

Yesterday's Democratic result is sure to fuel debate among poll-watchers about the accuracy of polls in contests with African American candidates. In several well-known, but long-ago examples, pre-election polls underestimated support for the white candidates in such campaigns. But in the 2006 elections, a strong showing by polls in elections...

By Jon Cohen  |  January 9, 2008; 12:51 AM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (4)
Categories:  Post Polls  
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The CCI moves to ABC

As of today, Jan. 8, the Consumer Comfort Index is sponsored exclusively by ABC News. The weekly updates can be found Tuesday's at 5:00 p.m. by clicking here. ABC News has conducted the CCI since late 1985; The Washington Post partnered on the survey from 2005 through 2007....

By Jon Cohen  |  January 8, 2008; 4:00 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (0)
Categories:  Post-ABC Consumer Comfort Index  
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About those young voters...

A well-reported five-point bump in turnout among younger voters helped propel Barack Obama to victory in Iowa, and a look Behind the Numbers shows just how different this new generation of caucusgoers is from the historically more "reliable" group of over-65 voters. Last Thursday evening, 22 percent of Democratic caucusgoers...

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  January 7, 2008; 1:21 PM ET  |  Permalink  |  Comments (2)
Categories:  Polls  
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