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Obama 2008 vs. Jackson 1988

Former Pres. Bill Clinton caused a stir this week by comparing Barack Obama's success in South Carolina to Jesse Jackson's in 1988 and 1984. But an analysis of the data shows that, while there are some similarities, Obama has already crossed racial divides in his presidential bid that Jackson never did.

In overwhelmingly white Iowa and New Hampshire, Obama significantly outperformed Jackson, and Obama has broader national appeal now than Jackson did 20 years ago.

Obama picked up 38 percent of Iowa caucusgoers earlier this month; Jackson scored just 9 percent in 1988. There was a similarly wide 37 percent to 8 percent gap between how the two did in the New Hampshire primary.

It is true that Obama's 55 percent share of the vote in South Carolina is about equal to Jackson's reported support from 1988. But in 1988 the state party held caucuses, not a primary, drawing fewer than a tenth the number of voters who turned out this year. (Rev. Jackson was also born in the state.)

Percentage of votes in early states:

    Obama 2008 Jackson 1988 Jackson 1984
Iowa   38%          9%           3%
N.H.   37%          8%           5%
S.C.   55%         54%          25%* 
*Uncommitted: 53%

Comparing Obama's national standing to Jackson's from 1988 also reveals a different type of African American candidate.

Twenty years ago, Jackson fared worse among white voters across the country than Obama does today. In a January 1988 Washington Post-ABC News poll - when Jackson shared the national lead with Gary Hart - Jackson registered at 14 percent among whites, well under half the level of support Obama enjoyed in a January 2008 Post-ABC poll (33 percent). This year, 77 percent of white Democrats have a favorable impression of Obama; in 1988, barely half, 51 percent, viewed Jackson positively.

The 1988 vote itself was also more highly polarized than the early 2008 contests have been. In combined 1988 ABC News exit polls from that year's Super Tuesday states, 92 percent of African American voters opted for Jackson, but were joined by just 9 percent of white voters.

Here's the breakout from each of the 16 states holding primaries March 8, 1988; Jackson won five of these states, all with significant percentages of African American voters.

How Jackson fared on Super Tuesday 1988*

          White voters   Black voters
Alabama         6%             95%
Arkansas        6              93
Florida         7              87
Georgia         6              93
Kentucky        7              --
Louisiana       6              96
Maryland       11              88
Massachusetts  16              --
Mississippi     6              92
Missouri       12              -- 
North Carolina  7              94
Oklahoma        8              84
Rhode Island   16              70
Tennessee       5              95
Texas          14              92
Virginia       14              95         
*Data from ABC News Exit polls. "--" indicates small sample size. 

In the CBS-New York Times Virginia exit poll that year, nearly half of white voters expressed an unfavorable impression of Jackson. In Massachusetts, about a third had a negative view.

And in the Illinois primary, held a week after Super Tuesday, Jackson attracted 8 percent of white voters, but 91 percent of African Americans, according to the ABC exit poll. Jackson had fared no better among white voters in his adopted home state in 1984.

By Jon Cohen  |  January 28, 2008; 11:00 AM ET
Categories:  Exit polls  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Behind Obama's Big S.C. Win
Next: BTN: John Edwards

Comments

Of course there's a huge difference, it doesn't take a great deal of analysis to figure that out. But by analysing it anyway, the Post is inadvertently playing into Bill Clinton's hand by a) giving attention to a point cynically employed by the Clinton campaign to suggest Obama is an exponent of racial politics, and b) giving Bill Clinton more air time than he currently deserves. You should know better.

Posted by: Michael | January 28, 2008 11:42 AM | Report abuse

Race doesn't matter, there're informed voters who voted for Obama whether they are white, black, green or purple. The rest are just ill-informed, which happens to be a lot of women.

Posted by: race doesn't matter | January 28, 2008 11:53 AM | Report abuse

Race didn't matter in the election till it was made an issue by the Clinton's. The act was dangerous and risks dividing the Democrat party in half. This coming from the self proclaimed first black president should be ashamed of his tatics, and appologize to the democrat party and the country. The voters are smarter than what the Clintons give us credit for.

Posted by: Jonathan | January 28, 2008 12:00 PM | Report abuse

Hillary Clinton will gain over 80% of the gay and lesbian vote.

Posted by: Daddy Grace | January 28, 2008 12:20 PM | Report abuse

The most surprising internal from the exit polls is that Obama won the white-under-30 vote.
It's not a black-vs.white thing. It's about a new generation.

Posted by: Frank Palmer | January 28, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

you guys are intentionally being played by clinton. why play along when you can ignore the comment.

get creative and write something worthwhile

Posted by: Nolawi | January 28, 2008 1:03 PM | Report abuse

When it comes to having experience before running for the office of President, I disagree with those who say that Bill Clinton did not have experience when he took the office. He had lot of experience doing it as governor of Arkansas, and he showed it too - remember Monica Lewinsky?

Posted by: davtx | January 28, 2008 1:15 PM | Report abuse

The media keeps saying the Clintons are making the campaign about race but Obama is the one who started it by attacking Hillary about MLK. Hillary was up by 20 pts in South Carolina before it became about race so what reason would she possibly have to make race an issue. Clearly Obama did what he needed to win there. The Clinton's have a history on race and civil rights and it's absurd to paint them as racist, but the Obama campaign, with the media's help, has managed to do that.

Posted by: Bryan | January 28, 2008 1:21 PM | Report abuse

Bill Clinton makes one exceptionally bone-headed and potentially race baiting comment and it becomes news to such an extent that we now have articles like this. Even if this article is set to debunk this "fairy tale" that Clinton conjured up, it still has the effect of continuing the Clinton's strategy of keeping Obama's race front and center and labelling him the "Black candidate". And that is because it keeps this reference in the news. I think this is unfortunate and I think there are better stories to be written about the Clinton's race baiting strategy than this one. We all know that the comparison is invalid, so lets focus on why the Clinton's are making these comparison's in the first place.

Posted by: Bubba | January 28, 2008 1:26 PM | Report abuse

The type of political spin that the Clintons are trying is exactly the kind of politics voters are tired of. Do Americans want to fight with each other or do they want to get together and solve the Serious problems we all face? End the Drama, Vote Obama!

Posted by: thebob.bob | January 28, 2008 1:27 PM | Report abuse

I watched Obama's acceptance of Kennedy's endorsement. And he made a pretty speech afterwards, talking about hope and change...

But pretty speeches can only go so far. If you listen closely, it sounds like EMPTY words spewing from the mouth of an orator.

It reminds me of the fallacy:'appeal to emotion'.

All talk but no action. Empty rhetoric here and there. Thats how I summarize Obama's candidacy.

Posted by: andre | January 28, 2008 1:46 PM | Report abuse

Martins analysis of this issue has been the best so far.WHY isnt some one mentioning that Bill Clinton too won in South Carolina, and that Edwards won at the same time that Al Sharpton ran.
Clinton's motive was too trivialize the victory by painting it racial.Fortunately America is past the divide and rule strategy the Clintons are trying to play.Ted Kennedy has noticed how divisive the Clintons are , and that is why he has snubbed them.Truth be told, while Bill CLinton may be an asset for the Democratic primaries, he will be a liability against the republicans in the general election.It will be framed as Bill Clinton term III., especially if the Monica Lewinsky affair is brought up and Hillary is dubbed as " My man - Dependent " housewife.

Obama to the Rescue! through infinity and Beyond!

Posted by: Josh | January 28, 2008 1:54 PM | Report abuse

I meant Martins at CNN.

Posted by: Josh | January 28, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

Stupid article. SHAME ON YOU!

Posted by: Alan | January 28, 2008 1:55 PM | Report abuse

This is ridiculous. The Clintons bark and the press caravan moves in. I appreciate your noting how stupid Mr. Clinton's analogy was, but simply by repeating this junk makes the tactic "useful." It's not the first time. You buy Mrs. Clinton's claim to the mantle of "experience" even though most of those 35 years were spent as First Wife -- how does that make HER experienced? We've now seen how much control she has over Bill -- do we really want his finger stuck in our faces for another Clinton presidency? Twofer, yeah. Been there, done that, got the tee-shirt, don't need another. Please folks, don't stop thinkin' about tomorrow -- Go Obama!

Posted by: Bette | January 28, 2008 2:42 PM | Report abuse

A simple question:
could we still call a democracy a country which has been ruled by two powerful families in a lapse of 23 years?

Posted by: Theodor | January 28, 2008 3:26 PM | Report abuse

Andre, if you want to know Barack's positions on the issues, simply go to http://www.barackobama.com/issues/ .
Barack' positions are impressive; his Energy/Environmental Plan is Excellent! The full details (11 pages long) of his Energy Plan is at http://www.barackobama.com/issues/pdf/EnergyFactSheet.pdf and the full details of his Environmental Plan is at http://www.barackobama.com/issues/pdf/EnvironmentFactSheet.pdf . Go Barack Obama, Go!

Posted by: Gavin Young | January 28, 2008 4:20 PM | Report abuse

Obamais long on show and woefully short on substance. He is a creation of the media and from the beginning race was part of this campaign. White politicians walk on eggshells when a black is invo;ved in a race. This is particularly true of democrats as the black vote is seen as essential to winning. Obama won his seat in the senate by defeating a carpetbagging black man fro Georgia and truth be known, anyone could have defeated his sorry ass. No experience Obama would cause me to sit out the election if he is the nominee. We need another creation of the media presiding like we need a hole in our head.

Posted by: rbathelib | January 28, 2008 5:39 PM | Report abuse

I do not think that Bill Clinton is a racist.
What I do find him to be is a cynical politician who will play any card in the deck in order to gain advantage. He always has been willing to set whites against blacks when he saw that was to his advantage. He wants whites to see Obama as only a candidate of black Americans. Guess who gets to draw from the huge non black majority.
This is not the first time Bill Clinton has played that card.
Go back and read about how he played the Sistah Soljah card against Jesse Jackson, in order to make sure that white voters stayed away from him.
Bill Clinton loves blacks when he needs their support, and he will throw them to the dogs if he thinks that will gain him an advantage. Racists are too full of hate to ever play that game.
In some ways the Bill Clintons of the world are worse than racists. At least with racists, the targets of their hatred always know where they stand. It is far worse when someone who has befriended you, turn around and feeds you the wolves.

Posted by: mageduley | January 28, 2008 6:05 PM | Report abuse

I'm just curious, will Obama drop the MLK accent and pick up a Latino one for CA and AZ

Posted by: Debbie | January 28, 2008 11:54 PM | Report abuse

Unfortunately, many things are said in the heat of a campaign that probably shouldn't be said. What gives words impact is the character of the person behind them. President Clinton can't continue to make dismissive comments and there not be consequences in the future of his legacy and the Democractic Party. South Carolina meant something to the Clintons or else they would not have spent time or resources there. It's going to be a close race either way. Let's try to stay positive in the future.

Posted by: coliver3110 | January 29, 2008 12:05 AM | Report abuse

I'm just curious, will Obama drop the MLK accent and pick up a Latino one for CA and AZ

Posted by: Debbie | January 28, 2008 11:54 PM


Shame on you Debbie, I hope that you are in high school.

Posted by: Steve | January 29, 2008 3:23 AM | Report abuse

Bill Clinton downplayed the significance of Obama's South Carolina win not his national campaign.

Jackson won 11 states in 1988 including Michigan and Vermont. Jackson's percentage of white vote is decent considering he was competing against Al Gore in the south and Dukakis in the north. He didn't do as well as Obama in the early states because he was competing with neighbor sons in Iowa (Gephardt) and NH (Dukakis). While Jackson ddn't fare as well as Obama in the percentages of whites the Rainbow Coalition was incredibly diverse and included subsets of whites (farmers and blue collar workers) not generally thought of as "black friendly." Obama's white support is centered in the under 30, highly educated and over $200K demographics in comparison.
I would guess Jackson did better with working class whites than Obama is currently.

Posted by: you short change Jackson | January 29, 2008 4:19 AM | Report abuse

I'm undecided about who & which party I'm voting for, but found this great article called "Black Voters and a Twist of Bias" on the BlogZine SAVAGE POLITICS.

http://savagepolitics.com/?p=59
WOW- all I have to say!
Here is an excerpt: "Last Saturday's South Carolina Democratic Primary produced the widely expected result of a Barack Obama victory. From the beginning of the week, it was the ethnic composition of the State in question which was amply discussed by both the Media and it's multiple pundits. It was here and through other sources that we discovered that 55% percent of Democratic voters in South Carolina were African American. An interesting number when you consider the "coincidence" that Obama actually won the election by exactly the same margin: 55%. Of course, many in Clinton's campaign have used this demographic reality to spin their defeat, vociferating that they had always expected to loose from the start. It should be noted that it has been this exact attitude which they have ridiculed Obama's camp for, insinuating that they had proved to be "sore losers" by not admitting their own failures in stating their case to the American People. As we all know, in modern politics, no campaign is free of idiotic childishness, sadly resurfacing the reality that our current political existence is dominated by whining imbeciles of the lowest ilk. Nevertheless, the Clinton Campaign's affirmation (victory based on a unified ethnic constituency) is valid, especially when we consider the data.
The Primary's exit polling, presented by all major networks, were utilized by analysts to determine how was Obama's, Edwards', and Clinton's support spread throughout different social markers. Their results indicated that 80% of the Black vote, and only 20% of the White vote, went towards Barack Obama. Regarding most White voters in the State, you could easily identify their split between John Edwards and Hillary Clinton. The significance of this racial division is crucial in understanding the fate of Barack Obama's campaign, and the Democratic Party, if they chose to face the General Election with him at the helm...." Find the rest of the article at http://savagepolitics.com/?p=59

Posted by: elsylee28 | January 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Report abuse

It does appear that in SC Obama received almost the same % of votes as Jackson did in 1988, isn't that what the chart reflects? So, when WJC compared Obama to Jackson with respect to SC, he hit the nail on the head.

To call Clinton a racist (or as the Obama campaign did to compare him to Lee Atwater) is the biggest swift-boating smear of the campaign. The Clintons have gone after Obama on the issues; Obama and his surrogates have gone after the Clintons in a most abhorent way.

Posted by: jrterrier | January 29, 2008 12:30 PM | Report abuse

Frankly, what I think has happened is that because Clinton is not a racist he is not pulling punches. He is campaigning against Obama exactly as he would against a Kennedy or any other white candidate. It seems to me that the ones who examine their own feelings are those in the media and politics who believe that Obama needs to be handled with kid gloves.

Posted by: jrterrier | January 29, 2008 12:33 PM | Report abuse

Debbie,

Way to go, the MLK accent started the night Clinton beat him in New Hampshire. The Race card was played - expertly, by Obama.

Posted by: paul | January 29, 2008 1:27 PM | Report abuse

I cannot believe my fellow Democrats are so incredibly stupid to still rally behind Hillary. At this point, quite frankly, whether you like Hillary or not, making her the nominee would be the biggest gift you could ever give to the Republicans. Obama's candidacy has a far greater chance to succeed because he hasn't alienated or energized the Republicans to come out and vote against him. It might not be Hillary's fault, but she can energize the Republican base like no other politician.

Oh and by the way, all of Bill and Hillary's behavior has been nothing short of despicable ever since she realized she was losing in New Hampshire. Her core voters are so easily duped. Everything she does is SCRIPTED.

Posted by: Tom Johnson | January 30, 2008 1:39 AM | Report abuse

Give over people. When the whole election is over, Clinton will be the winner . Oh by the way, doesn't Obama's name sound like a terrorist's name ???? "O-Bomb-a"
lol !!!!

Posted by: Craig | January 30, 2008 1:51 PM | Report abuse

The fact that Obama gor 82% black votes and 24% white votes in SC shows that race played a major role. Obama clearly used his racial identity to get the black votes in SC and cynically blamed the Clintons for injecting race into the election politics. Especially afer SC, his inability to energise the whites, Hispanics, women and seniors has already been demonstrated in Florida. His electability in November is a highly overblown myth that democrats have to be very weary of. The media is trying to skew this election result by biased reporting. The media's uncritical fascination with Obama in Iowa and New Hampshire turned away potential supporters because of the perceived bias. Additionally, the media pundits saw race bait on innocent MLK-LBJ comments that has convertted this election into race-based politics. The media openly projects the support of the blacks for Obama as a major asset, but perceived white support for Hillary as racism. Such one-sided bias in reporting has only diminished Obama's appeal to the white voters. Obama clearly has the ability to bring out the excitement in young people, and this coupled with his oratory was indeed exciting. But when this became an unabashed adoration for a hidden agenda against Hillary, the whole exercise began appearing as demeaning. A balanced reporting could have guided this election into a race-free contest between individuals with ideas, but an indisciplined media craze brought the old politics back. I totally blame the media for this miscalculation.

Posted by: Nathan | January 31, 2008 12:25 PM | Report abuse

I think we can all agree that John Edwards would be a far better president than either Obama or Clinton. Optimally, Kucinich would be the best yet. However, if Hillary wins the nomination this country has no future. With either her or a Republican in the presidency, democracy and freedom in this country is dead.

Posted by: Chris Burrell | February 2, 2008 5:33 AM | Report abuse

well, so far from the speaches that i could bear to listen to... i agree with the empty word statements. i hear, "we need this to change, we need that to change, we need... we need..." yet, from all of that, i hear no definate means of how these things are to happen. even if her were more defined... how can you possibly listen to and believe in promises that have to be agreed upon by more than just he, to make happen. there is that little thing called congress that has to als oapprove of his commitments. right?

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Sen. Obama for President 2008

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