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Tale of the tape: Clinton vs. Obama

One helpful way to see the closely contested race between Clinton and Obama is to look across all 24 Democratic exit polls conducted by Edison-Mitofsky that included both candidates (there was an exit poll in Michigan, but Obama was not on the ballot there).

For example, Obama won black voters by large margins in each of the 20 contests that had exit polls and big enough samples of African Americans. Among whites, Clinton outpaced Obama by double-digits in 16 states; Obama was at least 10 percentage points better in three.

The score-sheet among white men is Clinton with eight double-digit wins, Obama with seven. Among white women, Clinton beat Obama by at least 10 points in 19 states; Obama topped her by that many in just one, his home state of Illinois.

A more complete record follows, showing each candidate's core constituencies as well as the voters who have been the most up-in-the-air. In some states, there were not big enough samples of subgroups to report, or one candidate had a more narrow edge over the other.

Number of states where candidate held a double-digit advantage:
                      Clinton   Obama   
Whites                  16         3
African Americans        0        20
Hispanics                9         1
Men                      2        13
Women                   11         7
White men                8         7 
White women             19         1
Democrats               11         8      
Independents             3        16
Age under 30             1        18 
Age 65 and up           17         1
Whites under 30          3        10
Whites 60 and up        19         1    
Top quality: 
     Change              0        22
     Experience         24         0
     Empathy            10         7
     Electability        6         6
Non-college             11         6
College or more educ.    2        13
Income under $50K       11         8
Income $50K and up       3        11
Top issue: 
     Economy            10         8
     Health care         9         6
     Iraq                2        12

By Jon Cohen  |  February 13, 2008; 1:50 AM ET
Categories:  Exit polls  
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Comments

This may be true, but a double digit advantage could be just 10%. The field isn't so stark as these numbers imply, and people are starting to vote more and more based on the issues rather than what box they fit in. There are plenty of places in the senate voting records where the candidates differ to make an educated choice based on beliefs, not demographics: http://politicalmaelstrom.blogspot.com/2008/01/actual-differences-between-barack-and.html

Posted by: lostinmyownhead | February 13, 2008 1:10 PM | Report abuse

the turnout rate differs significantly between whites and blacks. because it is the first time in history that the blacks have a viable candidate for president, they came out in droves, and this simple factor explains a lot of what has happened in the exits. imagine a scenario. let's say all voters, black, white, hispanic, asian, etc, in this country turn out to vote on the primary dates, how would the scores be like?

Posted by: tony | February 13, 2008 3:33 PM | Report abuse

More than numbers: I am AA, F, B.S., > 40, >$50K income; and if these are meaningful data, my "Not Hillary" vote will go to McCain if Obama doesn't get the nomination.

I would like to see change. This could be 2 families leading America 1/2 of my life time. I don't like those numbers.

Bush Senior - 4 years
Clinton - 8 years
Another Bush - 8 years
Another Clinton - NO!

Posted by: Karen | February 14, 2008 1:01 PM | Report abuse

Could it be that independant "republican leaning" folks are crossing the isles to make the race lean toward Obama. (Obama taking independants)

What does it say that the college oriented are leaning toward Obama...

Posted by: Tim | February 15, 2008 10:19 AM | Report abuse

Tim - "What does it say that the college oriented are leaning toward Obama..."
Probably says the non-college oriented people are saying "I am hurting now, and I care less about that vision thing, change thing, or that Iraq thing, what can you do to help me now". I hope Obama addresses this even more explicitly. (I voted for Obama)

Posted by: Anonymous | February 15, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse


"God will destroy America by the hands of the Muslims....God will not give Japan or Europe the honor of bringing down the United States; this is an honor God will bestow upon Muslims." - Nation of Islam Leader Louis Farrakhan


"White people are potential humans...they haven't evolved yet."- Nation of Islam Leader Louis Farrakhan
Philadelphia Inquirer, March 2000


According to a journalist's account, "Farrakhan called 'the white man' the 'anti-Christ' to rousing applause."


"White America got their wake-up call after 9-11. White America and the Western world came to realize people of color had not gone away, faded in the woodwork, or just disappeared as the Great White West kept on its merry way of ignoring black concerns." Jeremiah Wright (Obama's pastor and mentor)


"The Israelis have illegally occupied Palestinian territories for over 40 years now. Divestment has now hit the table again as a strategy to wake the business community and wake up Americans concerning the injustice and the racism under which the PALESTINIANS have lived because of Zionism." Jeremiah Wright. Obama's pastor.


"Some in the black community say Bill Clinton was Good to us. That's not true. He did the same thing to us as he did to Monica Lewinsky." Jeremiah Wright
http://www.capveterans.com/the_year_of_2008/id19.html

From Dreams of My Father, " I FOUND A SOLACE IN NURSING A PERVASISVE SENSE OF GRIEVANCE AND ANIMOSITY AGAINST MY MOTHER'S RACE". Barack Hussein Obama

From 'Dreams of my Father', "The emotion between the races could never be pure, even love was tarnished by the desire to find in the other some element that was missing in ourselves. Whether we sought out our demons or salvation, the other race (WHITE) would always remain just that: menacing, alien, and apart." Barack Hussein Obama

From Dreams Of My Father: "That hate hadn't gone away," he wrote, BLAMING "WHITE PEOPLE -- some CRUEL, some IGNORANT, sometimes a single face, sometimes just a faceless image of a system claiming power over our lives." Barack Hussein Obama

From 'Dreams Of My Father', "There were enough of us on campus to constitute a tribe, and when it came to hanging out many of us chose to function like a tribe, staying close together, traveling in packs," he wrote. "It remained necessary to prove which side you were on,to show your LOYALTY TO THE BLACK MASSES, TO STRIKE OUT and name names" Barack Hussein Obama


Obama's campaign quickly issued a statement "Senator Obama is proud of his pastor and his church."

http://www.capveterans.com/the_year_2007/id59.html
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2007/8/8/194812.shtml?s=al&promo_code=3855-1


Posted by: cyberella | February 17, 2008 2:02 PM | Report abuse

Fox "News" has Rupert Murdoch determining what is news and what is not news. I am increasingly wondering whether NBC and particularly MSNBC is doing the work of Bill Gates and Microsoft. The anti-Hillary quality of the 'reporting' and punditry is such that I have stopped watching MSNBC (and NBC, for that matter). Are these networks doing payback for Bill Clinton's threats against the Microsoft monopoly? What can account for the rabid anti-Clinton fervor of these networks?

Posted by: Ed | February 17, 2008 5:18 PM | Report abuse

I have a Dream, All the returning troops get into politics, throw all members out of congress, pick & run Gen Pregrus as President. Lower taxs, Privatize SS, build 5 Refineres with Nuke plants to lower our Gas & electic bills, shrink gov, restore the dollars stregth, end the unions hold on gov workers, server 2 terms & turn it over to the next group of returning soldiers............
Also along the way, stop Iran, or turn Iran into Glass.......Amen

Posted by: BillW | February 21, 2008 8:39 AM | Report abuse

King Obama.Black power.Finally Black will rule.

Posted by: Tyrone | February 21, 2008 1:09 PM | Report abuse

Clinton is trying to Swift Boat Obama. What an attack dog!

Posted by: oldgal | March 3, 2008 9:48 PM | Report abuse

OBAMA IS A MUSLIM RACIST AND EVIL
HONORED LOUIS FARRAKHAN AT HIS SO-CALLED CHURCH
HE SUPPORTED ODINGA IN KENYA WHO WANTS TO MAKE SHARIA LAW AND ISLAM THE ONLY ALLOWED RELIGION
ODINGA WAS INVOLVED IN MURDERING CHRISTIANS WHO STOOD AGAINST HIM OBAMA WORKED WITH COLUMBIA PROFESSOR KHALIDI WHO IS A MEMBER OF THE PLO TERRORIST ORGANIZATION
OBAMA HAS CROOKED MONEY DEALS WITH REZKO WHO SAID HE DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH MONEY TO TURN ON THE HEAT FOR THE TENANTS IN CHICAGO
MICHELLE AND OBAMA - THEIR PHOTOS TAKEN AT PLO MEETINGS


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