Delving Deeper on Black Turnout

I am amazed by what Senator Obama has accomplished. I have been in this country for 5 years and when I arrived I was struck at how poor and uneducated most blacks are. I could never figure out why most had children out of wedlock, sold drugs, and were in jail. I suppose it is the slave metality from generations ago but at some point they will have to take responsibility. I think that is the reason Senator Obama appeals to so many whites because he isn't 100% black. He has a black face but the mentality of a white person. That makes the vote palatable and they can feel good about themselves. I doubt many of these white voters would go for an Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson - just too black and they are for more representative of the black American - not Barack Obama.

McCain deserves another look. We are going to have a Democratic Senate and you got to have a leader that knows how to solve problems by accommodating enough of them to get the job done. Even if he has lost some grey matter over the years he has still got the moxie to break loose and show his independence. A good example is the way he led the Gang of 14 to break the courts log jam a few years ago.

Rahiq Sayed:
It is obvious from your comment that you have really only been in his country for 5 years!
And you believe in 5 years blacks have suddenly become less poor, more educated, sell less drugs and less in jail? You are really ignorant. You really do not know america. It is obvious you came here with various biases from wherever you came from.
You are a "typical" immigrant who thinks they understand america after 5 years of living here.

Using 2004 Bush v. Kerry numbers is silly. You have to compare current polling (which uses traditional shares of the AA vote since likely voter screens aren't going to account for poor blacks) and turnout potential.

It's clear that record turnout has the potential to boost Obama to victory in Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia (if Barr stays viable).

I agree with the overall thrust of this post though. While massive voter registration efforts have a huge potential to pad Obama's popular vote margins and help downticket races, they're occuring in states that will be difficult to win (Georgia/NC).

Rahiq Syed:
Looking further at your comment- more ignorance.
Sharpton and Jackson are too black and typical black americans! Most black americans are in jail, selling drugs and having children out of wedlock! Most black americans have slave mentality!
I don't even know where to begin to address your comments, except to advise you to read and travel more.

White, black, yellow, tanned, old, young - we are Americans. Who our parents are or were does not change a thing. We are Americans and we will speak and be heard in the November election!

I agree that it's a poor idea to *predict* outcomes on the basis of 2004, but using 2004 data is smart for looking at a baseline. 2004 wasn't terribly different from 2008 - highly contentious issues, an ongoing war, etc. Nationally, the big issues are just even bigger now.

What this kind of analysis misses (or neglects to mention) is the change in behavior of other demographics, particular Democrats and Republicans.

2004 Democrat votes were much more "I want Bush out," than, "I want Kerry in." Even though turnout was higher than in any previous election for either party, there were many disinterested Democrats and centrists who didn't feel Kerry (or Bush) was worth voting for.

At the same time, Bush was still very popular among Republicans, and Karl Rove orchestrated the gay marriage bans in many states, which drew social conservatives like moths to the flame. Without the additional votes Bush got from those who showed up to support the bans, Kerry would have won enough swing states to take the election.

This time, Democrats have a candidate they (largely) really like, but Republicans have the compromise candidate. Sure, McCain is well-regarded, but he doesn't tow the line enough to summon all the Republicans to the polls in the same way Obama can do with Democrats.

There's also the lack of a nice wedge issue for the Republicans to pull out otherwise infrequent voters.

This all spells lower turnout for Republicans and higher turnout for Democrats. That's *before* consideration of how particular sub-groups of each bloc are likely to vary their behavior.

This table would be much more useful if we had some statistics about what voter turnout and voter registration is/was among blacks in the states listed. If 60% of eligible blacks voted in 2004, then a 30% increase is hard to get. If only 40% voted, then a 30% increase is much easier to accomplish. What are we looking at, here? Should I go spend my vacation volunteering in a voter registration drive in Georgia, or not?

I'd like to slap anyone and everyone who talked up how evil George W. Bush and the GOP was in 2004 -- saying it was John Kerry and the Dems who had to be elected -- only to turn around and reward in 2008 GOP John McCain instead of Dem Barack Obama. Especially for any such individuals who would not back McCain had Hillary Clinton won her party's nomination.

You know -- hypocrites.

My prediction is that I won't need to waste such energy. Barack Obama will be elected in November as the next president of the United States.