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In the Margins

The nominating conventions are over, but their impact is starting to emerge in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out today. Here's a look at how the new race stacks up to exit poll results from the previous two presidential contests. Each row shows the margin among that group for the leading candidate, but keep in mind, not all margins are statistically significant.

Presidential Vote Margin:

                   2000        2004        2008
All                Even     Bush   +3   Obama   +1

Men              Bush +11   Bush  +11   McCain  +8 
Women            Gore +11   Kerry  +3   Obama   +8

Whites           Bush +12   Bush  +17   McCain +17
Blacks           Gore +81   Kerry +77   Obama  +94

White men        Bush +24   Bush  +25   McCain +24
White women      Bush  +1   Bush  +11   McCain +12

Democrats        Gore +75   Kerry +78   Obama  +73
Independents     Bush  +2   Kerry  +1   McCain  +7
Republicans      Bush +83   Bush  +87   McCain +81

White Catholics  Bush  +7   Bush  +13   McCain +23
White evang.
  Protestants       NA      Bush  +57   McCain +50

18-29            Gore  +2   Kerry  +9   Obama  +27
30-44            Bush  +1   Bush   +7   McCain  +6
45-59            Bush  +1   Bush   +3   Even
60+              Gore  +4   Bush   +8   McCain  +6

65+              Gore  +3   Bush   +5   McCain +10

Suburbanites     Bush  +2   Bush   +5   McCain  +8
 Women           Gore  +5   Kerry  +3   Even
 White women     Even       Bush   +9   McCain +14
 Married 
  white women    Bush  +8   Bush  +21   McCain +24

White non-coll.  Bush +17   Bush  +23   McCain +19
White college    Bush  +8   Bush  +11   McCain +16

Liberals         Gore +67   Kerry +72   Obama  +65
Moderates        Gore  +8   Kerry  +9   Obama   +7
Conservatives    Bush +64   Bush  +69   McCain +50

SOURCE: 2000 and 2004 data from network exit polling, 2008 data from the Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Sept. 5-7 among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including interviews with 961 registered voters. Results shown above among registered voters.

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  September 8, 2008; 8:56 PM ET
Categories:  Exit polls , Post Polls  
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Comments

Question...so are the only minorities taking these polls blacks? Because I see nothing on here about other minorities.

Posted by: Nicole | September 9, 2008 10:48 AM | Report abuse

And this 2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll says it all. You Won't Believe These Results!

http://www.votenic.com

See What America Thinks!

Posted by: Brandon | September 10, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse

National numbers--how quaint. The numbers that count are OH, PA, MI, FL, VA & MO. The other numbers are meaningless to the electoral college outcome.
But then, if you keep it close you sell more papers.

Posted by: Jefferson Berry | September 12, 2008 7:43 AM | Report abuse

Actually, all polls are meaningless to the voting public...or at least they should be.

I won't base my vote on how others are voting, so what does it matter other than to the campaigns themselves. It is frustrating that the media spends so much time on polls. I guess it is because they are so tied to ratings, that the polls essentially tell them what to talk about. Polls are not news. Exit polls are not truths and reporting on them distracts.

Why won't the media REPORT? Tell me the facts. Tell me about the candidate's stands on the issues. And most of all, tell me about more than two candidates. By only polling and asking who would you vote for : 1) McCain 2)Obama 3) undecided, you have already limited choice and falsely framed the position on the question. This is a major disservice to the voters.

Posted by: dave g, Minneapolis | September 15, 2008 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Actually, all polls are meaningless to the voting public...or at least they should be.

I won't base my vote on how others are voting, so what does it matter other than to the campaigns themselves. It is frustrating that the media spends so much time on polls. I guess it is because they are so tied to ratings, that the polls essentially tell them what to talk about. Polls are not news. Exit polls are not truths and reporting on them distracts.

Why won't the media REPORT? Tell me the facts. Tell me about the candidate's stands on the issues. And most of all, tell me about more than two candidates. By only polling and asking who would you vote for : 1) McCain 2)Obama 3) undecided, you have already limited choice and falsely framed the position on the question. This is a major disservice to the voters.

Posted by: dave g, Minneapolis | September 15, 2008 11:10 PM | Report abuse

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