In the Margins
The nominating conventions are over, but their impact is starting to emerge in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll out today. Here's a look at how the new race stacks up to exit poll results from the previous two presidential contests. Each row shows the margin among that group for the leading candidate, but keep in mind, not all margins are statistically significant.
Presidential Vote Margin:
2000 2004 2008 All Even Bush +3 Obama +1 Men Bush +11 Bush +11 McCain +8 Women Gore +11 Kerry +3 Obama +8 Whites Bush +12 Bush +17 McCain +17 Blacks Gore +81 Kerry +77 Obama +94 White men Bush +24 Bush +25 McCain +24 White women Bush +1 Bush +11 McCain +12 Democrats Gore +75 Kerry +78 Obama +73 Independents Bush +2 Kerry +1 McCain +7 Republicans Bush +83 Bush +87 McCain +81 White Catholics Bush +7 Bush +13 McCain +23 White evang. Protestants NA Bush +57 McCain +50 18-29 Gore +2 Kerry +9 Obama +27 30-44 Bush +1 Bush +7 McCain +6 45-59 Bush +1 Bush +3 Even 60+ Gore +4 Bush +8 McCain +6 65+ Gore +3 Bush +5 McCain +10 Suburbanites Bush +2 Bush +5 McCain +8 Women Gore +5 Kerry +3 Even White women Even Bush +9 McCain +14 Married white women Bush +8 Bush +21 McCain +24 White non-coll. Bush +17 Bush +23 McCain +19 White college Bush +8 Bush +11 McCain +16 Liberals Gore +67 Kerry +72 Obama +65 Moderates Gore +8 Kerry +9 Obama +7 Conservatives Bush +64 Bush +69 McCain +50
SOURCE: 2000 and 2004 data from network exit polling, 2008 data from the Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Sept. 5-7 among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including interviews with 961 registered voters. Results shown above among registered voters.
By
Jennifer Agiesta
|
September 8, 2008; 8:56 PM ET
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Posted by: Nicole | September 9, 2008 10:48 AM | Report abuse
And this 2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll says it all. You Won't Believe These Results!
See What America Thinks!
Posted by: Brandon | September 10, 2008 6:03 PM | Report abuse
National numbers--how quaint. The numbers that count are OH, PA, MI, FL, VA & MO. The other numbers are meaningless to the electoral college outcome.
But then, if you keep it close you sell more papers.
Posted by: Jefferson Berry | September 12, 2008 7:43 AM | Report abuse
Actually, all polls are meaningless to the voting public...or at least they should be.
I won't base my vote on how others are voting, so what does it matter other than to the campaigns themselves. It is frustrating that the media spends so much time on polls. I guess it is because they are so tied to ratings, that the polls essentially tell them what to talk about. Polls are not news. Exit polls are not truths and reporting on them distracts.
Why won't the media REPORT? Tell me the facts. Tell me about the candidate's stands on the issues. And most of all, tell me about more than two candidates. By only polling and asking who would you vote for : 1) McCain 2)Obama 3) undecided, you have already limited choice and falsely framed the position on the question. This is a major disservice to the voters.
Posted by: dave g, Minneapolis | September 15, 2008 10:53 PM | Report abuse
Actually, all polls are meaningless to the voting public...or at least they should be.
I won't base my vote on how others are voting, so what does it matter other than to the campaigns themselves. It is frustrating that the media spends so much time on polls. I guess it is because they are so tied to ratings, that the polls essentially tell them what to talk about. Polls are not news. Exit polls are not truths and reporting on them distracts.
Why won't the media REPORT? Tell me the facts. Tell me about the candidate's stands on the issues. And most of all, tell me about more than two candidates. By only polling and asking who would you vote for : 1) McCain 2)Obama 3) undecided, you have already limited choice and falsely framed the position on the question. This is a major disservice to the voters.
Posted by: dave g, Minneapolis | September 15, 2008 11:10 PM | Report abuse
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Question...so are the only minorities taking these polls blacks? Because I see nothing on here about other minorities.