In the Margins: After Round One

With the first presidential debate in the rear-view mirror, the presidential contest between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain continues to be a closely-fought affair. The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll finds the electorate continuing to shift. The chart below compares how the race stacks up to exit poll results from the previous two presidential contests. Each row shows the margin among that group for the leading candidate, but keep in mind, not all margins are statistically significant.

Presidential Vote Margin:

                   2000       2004        2008
All              Gore  +0   Bush   +3   Obama   +4

Men              Bush +11   Bush  +11   McCain  +1
Women            Gore +11   Kerry  +3   Obama   +7

Whites           Bush +12   Bush  +17   McCain +13
Blacks           Gore +81   Kerry +77   Obama  +93

White men        Bush +24   Bush  +25   McCain +15
White women      Bush  +1   Bush  +11   McCain +11

Democrats        Gore +75   Kerry +78   Obama  +77
Independents     Bush  +2   Kerry  +1   McCain  +3
Republicans      Bush +83   Bush  +87   McCain +81

White Catholics  Bush  +6   Bush  +13   McCain  +1
WEPs                        Bush  +57   McCain +45

18-44            Even       Bush   +1   Obama   +6
45-59            Bush  +1   Bush   +3   Obama   +8
60+              Gore  +4   Bush   +8   McCain  +6

65+              Gore  +3   Bush   +5   McCain +10

Suburbanites     Bush  +4   Bush   +5   McCain  +8
 Women           Gore  +5   Kerry  +3   Even
 White women     Gore  +0   Bush   +9   McCain +14
 Married Wh Wom  Bush  +8   Bush +21    McCain +24

White non-coll.  Bush +17   Bush +23    McCain +17
White college    Bush  +8   Bush +11    Obama   +9

Liberals         Gore +67   Kerry +72   Obama  +81
Moderates        Gore  +8   Kerry  +9   Obama  +26
Conservatives    Bush +64   Bush  +69   McCain +65

SOURCE: 2000 and 2004 data from network exit polling, 2008 data from the Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Sept. 27-29 among a random national sample of 1,271 adults, including interviews with 916 likely voters. Results shown above among likely voters.