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Obama Leads Among the Young and the Landline-less

Barack Obama is up 12 points over John McCain among white voters under 30, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll. That is a reversal from 2004, when John F. Kerry lost these voters by 10 points.

The senator from Illinois is also exceeding Kerry's take by large margins among first-time voters (20 points better), moderates and African Americans (nine points each).

Another closely-watched group this year, particularly for the poll-obsessed, are those voters who have abandoned traditional phone service for mobile phones. Obama leads by better than 2 to 1 among these voters.

In 2004, 7 percent of voters indicated that they were "cell-only," according to the network exit poll; they went for Kerry over George W. Bush by 54 to 45 percent. Now, when these voters are poised to make up an even larger share of the electorate, 67 percent back Obama, 32 percent support McCain. (These data do not indicate any bias in polls without cell phone samples; but more on that as we continue the track.)

Thanks largely to the Democratic tilt among all of these voters, Obama maintains a large, nine-point lead in the new Post-ABC national tracking poll. Obama is up 53 to 44 percent over McCain among likely voters and 52 to 42 among all registered voters. Both sets are unchanged from yesterday.

                 08 Post-ABC     04 exit poll
                Obama   McCain   Kerry   Bush
All voters        53      44      48      51
Whites            45      52      41      58 
African Americans 97       2      88      11
Liberals          83      15      85      13
Moderates         63      34      54      45
Conservatives     21      76      15      84
Whites 18-29      54      42      44      54
Whites 65+        43      51      44      55
First-time voters 73      26      53      46
Cell phone-only   67      32      54      45

By Jon Cohen  |  October 21, 2008; 5:00 PM ET
 
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Comments

If you get someone who has already voted, are they counted for this poll? Are they counted as part of preliminary exit-poll data? Or are the early voters simply missed by the polls, both before the election and on that day?

Posted by: Fairfax Voter | October 21, 2008 5:10 PM | Report abuse

What proportion of respondents said they were cell phone only in this poll? I imagine that is up from where we were in 2004.

Posted by: Ezetimibe | October 21, 2008 5:13 PM | Report abuse

anyway you cut it --

looks pretty pathetic for McCain.

Posted by: ripley | October 21, 2008 5:16 PM | Report abuse

This poll is running very close to Gallup, with Pew showing a larger Obama advantage and Zogby a smaller Obama advantage. If you disregard the traditionally right-leaning Rasmussen and the party-sponsored polls, then it looks like there is beginning to be some convergence on a 9-10 point Obama lead. That would translate into 350+ EV, depending on distribution.

Posted by: Stonecreek | October 21, 2008 5:21 PM | Report abuse

These numbers about first-time voters (who are underestimated in most likely voter models) and cell-phone only voters (who aren't called at all) suggests that most national polls are GROSSLY understating Barack Obama's lead.

Posted by: Josh | October 21, 2008 5:24 PM | Report abuse

WaPo... I know you like to report the news but I think you need to alert medical centers because you are causing medical problems in the community that has been sneered by fear....

Posted by: angriestdogintheworld | October 21, 2008 5:26 PM | Report abuse

Even this is great news I wouldn't get too comfortable with these polls. Both Gore and Kerry had marginal leads going into election day. It's a simple fact that the GOP usually has a better turnout than democrats. If u can't get there on Nov 4th mail in your absentee vote...whatever you do get off your butt and do it.

Posted by: Ryan | October 21, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

Ryan,
That is not true. Kerry was behind in the last RCP average by 2.0%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_hth.html

The final margin was Bush by 2.7% (better turnout for him counted for the .7 margin.

The Real Clear Politics average is pretty accurate. Lots can change in two weeks, but Obama is certainly ahead by quite bit.

Posted by: Elrod | October 21, 2008 5:39 PM | Report abuse

Am I to presume that by listing these statistics that we, the American people should be impressed? Hardly! Many of our youth have been raised on video gaming, self indilgences, evolution, and the...me...me...and...I...I.. philosophy of life! Most of them have become the product of atheistic professors who still feed them a steady diet of Darwinism.

Many have never known, nor have they sought, nor do they retain in their memory, the God who protected and blessed this nation long before they were born. They have cast off the faith of their forefathers, exchanging it for self indulgences, lusts of the flesh, and the "new world" philosophies of this culture.

Few truly vote on the issues that will mold their future and the future of this nation, as a Christian society, but are easily seduced by lying tongues and charismatic jackals who whisper sweet nothings in their ears. Many vote their emotions, but in truth their choices are determined by the spirit of this world that seduces them to beleive a lie. They have no spiritual discernment of the times in which they now live.

As a result, they will blindly bring to power a man who will bring them into servitude, losing the freedoms that once were theirs, in exchange for a leader who serves his father satan, a jackal who comes in sheeps clothing...Obama.

I do not expect you to beleive me at this point in time, but, in that day, when all I have revealed to you concerning this man of evil comes to pass, then will you beleive, but sadly...way too late!

Posted by: Jordan | October 21, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

What percentage of voters in your poll are cell-phone only? I can't find the numbers anywhere on your site.

Posted by: Fred the pollster | October 21, 2008 5:49 PM | Report abuse

21% Conservatives for Obama is just another sign that McCain is toast.

Posted by: Steve | October 21, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

You left out a major part of our country.

29, 30, 31,32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46,47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64 ok this is 37 groups of votes excluded.overwhelming for OBAMA

Posted by: MsRita | October 21, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

Jordan - Thanks! You gave me a great laugh! It's that darn evolution that's causing all the problems. Fantastic.

But I must ask - what makes you think that Sen. McCain subscribes to the beliefs which you so whole-heartedly embrace? He called this nation's Christian leaders "Agents of Intolerance" before crawling back to get their votes. Sen. McCain has been surprisingly quiet about whether he believes that we live in a Christian nation. And with the exception of the religious forum he attended with Sen. Obama in late summer, has not enunciated strong, pro-Christian policies.

Is it possible that you have mis-identified the jackal in our midsts? Jackals tend to be very tricky that way. What a conundrum!!!

Posted by: Dan | October 21, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Jordan - Thanks! You gave me a great laugh! It's that darn evolution that's causing all the problems. Fantastic.

But I must ask - what makes you think that Sen. McCain subscribes to the beliefs which you so whole-heartedly embrace? He called this nation's Christian leaders "Agents of Intolerance" before crawling back to get their votes. Sen. McCain has been surprisingly quiet about whether he believes that we live in a Christian nation. And with the exception of the religious forum he attended with Sen. Obama in late summer, has not enunciated strong, pro-Christian policies.

Is it possible that you have mis-identified the jackal in our midsts? Jackals tend to be very tricky that way. What a conundrum!!!

Posted by: Dan | October 21, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Jordan - Thanks! You gave me a great laugh! It's that darn evolution that's causing all the problems. Fantastic.

But I must ask - what makes you think that Sen. McCain subscribes to the beliefs which you so whole-heartedly embrace? He called this nation's Christian leaders "Agents of Intolerance" before crawling back to get their votes. Sen. McCain has been surprisingly quiet about whether he believes that we live in a Christian nation. And with the exception of the religious forum he attended with Sen. Obama in late summer, has not enunciated strong, pro-Christian policies.

Is it possible that you have mis-identified the jackal in our midsts? Jackals tend to be very tricky that way. What a conundrum!!!

Posted by: Dan | October 21, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Jordan - Thanks! You gave me a great laugh! It's that darn evolution that's causing all the problems. Fantastic.

But I must ask - what makes you think that Sen. McCain subscribes to the beliefs which you so whole-heartedly embrace? He called this nation's Christian leaders "Agents of Intolerance" before crawling back to get their votes. Sen. McCain has been surprisingly quiet about whether he believes that we live in a Christian nation. And with the exception of the religious forum he attended with Sen. Obama in late summer, has not enunciated strong, pro-Christian policies.

Is it possible that you have mis-identified the jackal in our midsts? Jackals tend to be very tricky that way. What a conundrum!!!

Posted by: Dan | October 21, 2008 6:12 PM | Report abuse

Hey Jordan, hate to disappoint you, but man really didn't walk with the dinosaurs. I know it's hard for you to understand science, and the fact that the earth really is more than 6,000 years old is beyond your comprehension.

Posted by: Fred Flintstone | October 21, 2008 6:13 PM | Report abuse

Jordan - Thanks! You gave me a great laugh! It's that darn evolution that's causing all the problems. Fantastic.

But I must ask - what makes you think that Sen. McCain subscribes to the beliefs which you so whole-heartedly embrace? He called this nation's Christian leaders "Agents of Intolerance" before crawling back to get their votes. Sen. McCain has been surprisingly quiet about whether he believes that we live in a Christian nation. And with the exception of the religious forum he attended with Sen. Obama in late summer, has not enunciated strong, pro-Christian policies.

Is it possible that you have mis-identified the jackal in our midsts? Jackals tend to be very tricky that way. What a conundrum!!!

Posted by: Dan | October 21, 2008 6:14 PM | Report abuse

Dan, stop hitting submit. it's just...... really....... slow. Like Jordan.

Posted by: Fred Flintstone | October 21, 2008 6:15 PM | Report abuse

Jordan,

As a parent of 18 and 20 year old children, I take huge exception to your statements. You presume that your way of live, and the teachings that you espouse are the only ones that count.

My children have not been raised in the manner you suggest, and they question what they are taught in college, and are wonderful citizens of this country.

My son does not see a person in need of help, by the roadside, in a store, wherever without offering his assistance. My daughter gives her time willingly, as a freshman in college to tutor high school students, and has already taken on a role as a campus leader.

Both have taken the time to examine the issues facing them, and understand that under a McCain presidency, the mortgaging of THEIR future will continue. They will vote for Senator Obama on November 4, and I couldn't be more proud of them.

You and those that subscribe to your damn world view must come to understand that while it may be your calling to evangalize, those that don't believe what you do are NOT automatically damned.

If you don't get that, then I echo what elbuzz says - Shut the fu*k up!

Posted by: John D in Houston | October 21, 2008 6:17 PM | Report abuse

Hail John D! Bring the hammer.

Posted by: Fred Flintstone | October 21, 2008 6:19 PM | Report abuse

Hey, folks mark it down. On 10.21.08 it will be 344/193 on 11.05.08.

Posted by: mytake1 | October 21, 2008 6:20 PM | Report abuse

Why do citizens in 70 countries prefer Obama to McCain?

FROM CNN’s Jack Cafferty:

Senator John McCain says when it comes to foreign policy he’s light years ahead of Barack Obama. Over and over again, McCain has insisted Obama lacks the necessary experience to conduct business with foreign countries on behalf of the United States.

So how do you explain this?

Citizens of dozens of foreign countries prefer Barack Obama over John McCain as our next president by a margin of almost 4 to 1, according to a massive poll conducted by the Gallup Organization. About 30 percent of those surveyed prefer Obama, while just 8 percent favor McCain.

This was no daily tracking poll either. Gallup polled people in 70 countries in Africa, Europe, Asia and North and South America, representing nearly half the world’s population, between May and September of this year.

Citizens of the Philippines and Georgia were the only ones who preferred McCain to Obama. Not exactly the super-powers we’re looking to mend fences with.

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/21/why-do-citizens-in-70-countries-prefer-obama-to-mccain/

*******************************************
WORLD CITIZEN
*******************************************

I'm a citizen from Brazil. I have watched all running presidential of both parties and candidates since the primaries. Then I can cite some reasons why Obama is more preferred in 70 countries:

1) First thanks to Internet and other medias that help us to get informations on line on the USA and the world;

2) We are not the USA, or better, the Top of the capitalist world. Then we need know deeply the politics of the USA because it affects us too;

3) We are out USA. And it permit us to know better politics of the USA without any manipulation of the media and the American government;

4) Obama really represents the symbol of the American dream. He is not a product manufactured in the China, improved in the Japan and exported to the world through the USA;

5) He has excellent qualities to govern any country of the world. But just the blind, ignorant and prejudiced people not to see it in Obama;

6) We are not so ingenuous to such point not to discern the good and the bad, the honest and the dishonest, and the lie and the truth.

Hugs from Brazil for all conscious Americans and citizens in USA!!!

Posted by: DALMO | October 21, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

But McPalin have the treasonous secessionist vote locked up.

Posted by: cosmosis | October 21, 2008 6:41 PM | Report abuse

Jesus went on and on about not judging others. It was constant. Reading the bible I can't help thinking, "Enough, I got it! We can't know the mind of God, move on." How can you claim to follow Jesus and yet be so judgmental and vindictive? Look to your own soul and I'll look to mine, and stop suggesting that D versus R is some kind of Good versus Evil struggle. Important matters of THIS world, not those of the next, will be decided in this election.

Posted by: Adam Hammond | October 21, 2008 8:15 PM | Report abuse

Classy. You give a STFU to a guy who posted his thoughts. Nice. So tolerant. So "inclusive." Just what you can expect out of the "diverse" and "open minded." So much for freedom of religion. Unless, of course, it's "there is no God but Allah and Mohammed is his messenger." Or else.

Minds so small and so open that their brains have fallen out.

Posted by: URNOT Liberal | October 21, 2008 8:33 PM | Report abuse

Question:

Will Obama free Jose Padilla?

What does Biden intend to do about Gitmo?

Does anyone know?

Posted by: niterc maglite | October 21, 2008 8:48 PM | Report abuse

Just kidding, you guys! I'm actually Unitarian... only go to church once or twice a year, but they have a great evening softball league. Other than that, I guess I'm pretty secular.

Posted by: Jordan | October 21, 2008 9:08 PM | Report abuse


Landlines? Why?

I will absolutely vote for Obama. Nobody has polled me.

Posted by: sequoia | October 21, 2008 9:47 PM | Report abuse

sweet mother of Jesus... what are you bilthering about. We will be voting in droves...

Posted by: jakeD's shadow | October 21, 2008 10:43 PM | Report abuse

Hey Mytake1 -

Don't believe the hype. Repugs will find a way to hold (or steal) FL and NC, which I assume you are including in your count. Fortunately, that will not be enough to steal the election from Obama. Likely pickups compared to 2004 will be VA, IA, NM, MO, CO, and NV. So I figure 302/236. I voted early today here in NC, but we still have a lot of blue-collar white people down here who just won't vote for a black man.

Posted by: Skippy | October 21, 2008 10:58 PM | Report abuse

Obama is smart...he knows how to reach people, whatever the media source. McCain is a dumb old man living in the past, he doesn't even know how to send an email!
What a foolish old man he is!
Ans Sarah is even more stupid!
Haha! wink!

Posted by: tom | October 21, 2008 11:10 PM | Report abuse

Presenting and analyzing numbers as reported by candid sources... Yet another "tenet of Socialism."

Posted by: Goombay | October 21, 2008 11:16 PM | Report abuse

Hey, everyone. Please check out www.intrade.com. They have a record of almost uncanny accuracy when it comes to political outcomes, and they have Obama WAY ahead at this point. Yay!

Here in Denver, my husband and I voted by mail-in ballot tonight: a straight Democratic ticket, of course. We encourage everyone to vote as early as possible, to avoid lines and possible problems on Nov. 4.

FYI: We are 65 and 62, white and middle-class. David is a tech writer and author, and I am a language tutor and author. We both lived in other countries during parts of our youth.

Our son, now 39, was in the Air Force for eight years as a medic. He was in the Gulf War, an experience that made him very anti-war. Daniel is now working on a PhD in Bioinformatics, doing genetic research. He is convinced that Obama would be much better than McCain for the promotion of scientific research.

All of us admire Obama's broad world view, his intelligence,his education, and most of all, his calmness and steadiness. He is the leader we need so badly at this point in our history.

Barack to the Future!
Leonore (and David) Dvorkin
www.dvorkin.com

Posted by: Leonore Dvorkin | October 22, 2008 12:08 AM | Report abuse

I Don't believe your polls. When I ask people in my travels around this country I get the same answer. " I would never vote for a black man as president no matter what" so your polls are a lie to deceive the american people. Obama can go to hell.

Posted by: guy_in_Danville | October 22, 2008 8:04 AM | Report abuse

Jordan- besides the general blithering tone of your remarks and insults about our young people- you should learn to spell- "BELIEVE". Probably more education and less crazy right wing "faith" would help you.

Posted by: SilverSpring mom | October 22, 2008 8:19 AM | Report abuse

Do we really want a guy who wouldn't be able to get a security clearance for a normal government job, running the country?

I hope not. It is scarier than you know.

Posted by: Anonymous | October 22, 2008 8:37 AM | Report abuse

The all important unbiased WP tracking poll.

Posted by: Bob | October 22, 2008 8:49 AM | Report abuse

I pray that Obama wins. If he does, I'm going to encourage my 23 year-old son to join the Navy and serve, like I did back in 1968.
God bless America!
LET'S DO IT!

Posted by: tomhere | October 22, 2008 9:01 AM | Report abuse

Why is it that in your survey polls you don't poll the latin/hispanic ratings? Or is it like all the other media and radio talk shows, your bigiotry and bias feeling toward that race and culture.Most of the media, whether paper, internet, radio, tv, etc.etc.(99.0%)is racist toward the latin,hispanic community anyway.

Posted by: Manfred | October 22, 2008 9:09 AM | Report abuse

I can't believe how slanted the post really is - the GOP can't get any love in these parts.

Posted by: ef | October 22, 2008 10:21 AM | Report abuse

Jordan, you scare me. Christian Nation? Not everyone believes in what you do, man. You are going to have to learn to live with that. Your Palin is a whack job, and that has little to do with the beliefs you two share, and everything to do with her lack of intelligence.

Posted by: Charles W Gray | October 22, 2008 11:03 AM | Report abuse

Obviously someone is psoting under my nickname, for the specified post was not mine.

(Posted by: Jordan | October 21, 2008 9:08 PM )

Charles W Gray (Reference your response)

I dare say that you beleive in nothing except follow the leader. If you have any religious beleifs they most likely are as shallow as your spiritual understanding of the times in which you now live. Where in my comment did I mention Palin? I posted only one comment herein until now.

Dan (reply)

Might I ask where you draw the conclusion that I support McCain?

SilverSpring mom (Reply)

You judge by the same standard you use in assessing the value of a man like Obama. You most certainly would not beleive the truth, even if God revealed it to you.

Adam Hammond (reply)

You do err in not knowing the scriptures, nor do you know Him who has called me and has sent me. Jesus rebuked many who did the will of satan or aloowed the spirit of the evil one to influence their thoughts and speech. I rebuke Obama, by the living Word of God! Not to embrace McCain or Palin, but because he is a servant of his father the devil.

If you had received the gift of spiritual discernment or were in fact of His flock, you would know these things. You would not, like so many, be blind to the truth concerning the evil intent and spiritual powers that guide and lead this man you call your political messiah.

Posted by: Jordan | October 22, 2008 12:14 PM | Report abuse

Fred Flintstone: (reply)

You do err in not knowing and understanding the Word of God. In your ignorance, you beleive that the scriptures declare that the world has only existed for 6,000 years. Yo also exhalt science as man made, when it was God who empowered men to understand His Sciences.

It is of no surprise to me that men like you scoff and deride those who have understanding concerning these things. Is it not written that the natural man does not understand the things of God, for they are spiritually discerned!

Sadly, many of you are deceived, for you do not even discern the times in which you now live. Many reject the beleif in God and can articulate their ignorance quite well. This does not establish that they are correct, merely that they are indeed blind.

It is not my desire to state my support for any political candidate, but to define that which is inherently evil in it's nature. is it not written; by their fruits you shall know them? You, being blind, are easily deceived, for your heart is darked by the trappings of this world.

No! This nation is not a Christian nation, for many have been deceived and fallen away to follow the doctrines of devils. You think that by electing this man Obama that your life will be better? How utterly foolish. I do not lie, as men lie. I speak that which my Lord has revealed to me. For I have been with the Father and my Lord, and know the truth! I am deeply saddened that so many blindly support such a man who deceives many.

Posted by: Jordan | October 22, 2008 12:34 PM | Report abuse

Charles W Gray (reply)


Quote:
"...Jordan, you scare me. Christian Nation?"

Why would you be afraid of me? I am but the messenger! Fear him that can not only destroy the body, but the soul as well.

John D in Houston (reply)

You have every right to be proud of your children, in as much as they do that which they beleive to be right. But, it is written; "the ways of man seemeth right, but they lead to destruction."

My statement addresses the majority of young people in our society, and I would be naiive indeed to declare that ALL of our children have the same standards. But to support Obama merely establishes that they are following the spirit of this world. Your views are secular.

Jesus told Nicodemus that he must be born again of the water and of the spirit! He also declared that unless you are "born again" you will not enter into heaven! As a parent, we must not only train our children to walk holy before God, but to do the will of God. Obama does not do the will of God, for he serves his father satan!

How many of you, being carnal, would vote for Obama if you knew that what I have told you concerning him is true?

I tell you all that it will be better for the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah in the day of judgement than it will be for this nation and it's people. For truly, we have had a greater witness of the truth than those which suffered the wrath and fury of the living God.

The city of Ninevah heard the truth and repented, but you do not, nor do you turn from your blindness. Is it not written; "Trust not in the arm of flesh, lest it turn and rend you!"

Posted by: Jordan | October 22, 2008 1:04 PM | Report abuse

I think that they will try to beat Obama out of the election. Watch Funny Videos http://www.frizle.com

Posted by: roverfind | October 22, 2008 5:32 PM | Report abuse

There is a strong link between mental illness and debt. Half of people in Britain who are in debt have a mental disorder, compared with just 16 per cent of the general population.

I guess spreading the wealth will help all the loser democrats that need loans and handouts for everything in their lives. I be entitled to your money.

Posted by: tunaman | October 22, 2008 7:03 PM | Report abuse

It's all over but the whining.

Posted by: treetopflyer | October 22, 2008 7:29 PM | Report abuse

If to go up in the polls it requires huge advertising expenses and Colin Powell well known secret that he will support Obama then this country is in worse trouble than we think! I find when I read polls that I think are slanted I immediately suspect them. Polls that require celebrity endorsement are phony. My vote counts the same as Powell, Oprah or Larry King and the CNN crew with their bias.We just need a lot of Joe the Plumbers to forward this blog to their friends.This election is not black and white or rich and poor it is America and what will happen in the future.

Posted by: musing | October 22, 2008 9:51 PM | Report abuse

of course he leads with the young and naive he is everything that traditional presidents are not most notably black if they had half a brain they would vote for the guy that the mass madia is NOT ramming down their poor little throats , and they think they are being different/progressive/cool,bless their little brainwashed hearts

Posted by: Anonymous | October 22, 2008 11:18 PM | Report abuse

I'm about tired of listening to the rightwing nutjobs. I am a democrat and have already voted for Obama. I go to church every single Sunday

Posted by: kmarnv | October 23, 2008 2:16 AM | Report abuse

The numbers are promising, but let's remember this is about winning each of the battleground states where the leads for Obama are much thinner. Anyone who was around for 2000 should remember vividly that this is not about the national popular vote. To take winning for granted at this stage is unwise. We're not out of the woods!

Posted by: MGMadrid | October 23, 2008 11:27 AM | Report abuse

Please make your opinion count: VOTE.
No opinion counts unless you VOTE.

Increase your voting power by getting others to VOTE.
Please use the next 2 weeks encouraging others to VOTE!

Focus on making the DREAM COME TRUE: Obama '08

Posted by: ford9504 | October 23, 2008 5:47 PM | Report abuse

obama is definitely reaching his base...even cindy mccain has to support him...this commerical is hilarious!!!!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/24/waaaasup-the-pro-obama-ve_n_137711.html


Posted by: bitterindependent | October 24, 2008 8:14 PM | Report abuse

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