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Obama Ties-up McCain in "Red States"

With an 11-point advantage among likely voters in today's Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll, Barack Obama maintains his largest national lead of the campaign in Post-ABC polling.

In addition to the state polls out today from Quinnipiac and the University of Wisconsin, another way to see the magnitude of the Democrat's progress is to see how well he is currently doing across so-called "red" and "purple" states.

In the latest four-night track, Obama holds a commanding 22-point advantage in states John F. Kerry won in 2004, and he is about tied with John McCain in states Bush won last time (49 percent Obama, 48 percent McCain). Similarly, Obama is up 60 to 36 percent in states Kerry won by more than five and trails by a smaller 52 to 45 percent margin in states Bush carried that easily. In those crucial states decided by five or fewer points in 2004, Obama is up 21 points.

All questions released today are here

In the new data, 90 percent of all voters, including 87 percent of whites, said they'd be comfortable with the notion of Obama's being the first black president. Nearly three quarters of whites said they'd be "entirely comfortable" with it. Those numbers have changed little over the course of the campaign.

By contrast, far fewer, 50 percent, are okay with the idea of McCain's taking office at age 72. About as many, 49 percent, are uncomfortable with that; those numbers have also held steady. Even seniors are split 50 to 47 percent on the question.

Another factor still dragging on McCain is the widespread perception he would continue to lead the country along the course set by George W. Bush. More than half of likely voters, 52 percent, hold that view; fewer, 45 percent think McCain would instead chart a different course from the wildly unpopular GOP president.

Also, Obama's advantage on dealing with the economy is up to 18 (56 to 38 percent), his largest of the campaign. One modest bright spot for McCain is among veterans, who break for the Republican nominee by a 53 to 44 percent margin.

Vote by 2004 outcome

States Kerry won

[Chart]

States Bush won

[Chart]

States decided by 5 points or fewer

[Chart]

By Jon Cohen  |  October 23, 2008; 5:00 PM ET
Categories:  Tracking  
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Comments

"Obama ... is about tied with John McCain in states Bush won last time (49 percent Obama, 48 percent McCain)."

That is a truly remarkable statistic. If I was McCain, I would be looking for an honorable way out of this thing. That is a truly shocking statistic.

Posted by: NMModerate1 | October 23, 2008 5:24 PM | Report abuse

I had no problem with Senator McCain's age...until he made his VP selection.

This is one Republican is who voting for Senator Obama with no reservations. The thought of President Palin is truly fightening.

Posted by: amaikovich | October 23, 2008 5:38 PM | Report abuse

The data in your PDF doesn't make sense. For party affiliation you show

Dem 36%, Rep 27%, Ind 36%, Other 3%, No Opinion 1%.

That's more than 100%. In fact, it totals 103%. One of your categories has incorrect data.

Posted by: SAM13 | October 23, 2008 5:40 PM | Report abuse

Please make your opinion count: VOTE.
No opinion counts unless you VOTE.

Increase your voting power by getting others to VOTE.
Please use the next 2 weeks encouraging others to VOTE!

Focus on making the DREAM COME TRUE: Obama '08

Posted by: ford9504 | October 23, 2008 5:44 PM | Report abuse

SAM13 -

Pollsters tend to round up aggressively in compiling their data, so that there's no room for the perception that they're selectively rounding certain numbers up or down to fit a preferred outcome. It's part of what accounts for the margin of error typically being +/- 3 percentage points.

Posted by: manalive | October 23, 2008 5:52 PM | Report abuse

Again today I see polls in the RCP compilation, taken at the same time, with an MoE of 3 ponts or less, differing by a whopping 10 points.

Thats really disgusting.

Conclusion:

Never trust the polls. They are utterly irrelevant at best.
To make your opinion count you must vote yourself.

Posted by: awaler | October 23, 2008 5:55 PM | Report abuse

So decency, honesty and sound policies are making stronger strides against racism, lies and hypocrisy. There is no honorable way out for McCain before the election but perhaps he will apologize afterwards.

Posted by: AndrearKline | October 23, 2008 6:21 PM | Report abuse

Keep in mind that Kerry and Gore were up significantly as well, don't underestimate the GOP Slime factor, get out and vote.

Posted by: ryanr007 | October 23, 2008 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Still no mention of this news in the WaPo: "Lawsuits in eight states as of this writing– Hawaii, Washington, California, Florida, Georgia. Pennsylvania, New York and Connecticut, are seeking judicial authority to force the certifying or decertifying of Senator Barack Obama’s qualification to run as a candidate for President as a natural born U.S. citizen. Previously, two lawsuits have failed to force the certifying documents from Obama.

Philip Berg’s months-long lawsuit in Federal Court in Philadelphia reached a dramatic plateau yesterday as Mr. Obama and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) failed to respond to the court that Mr. Obama is not a natural born U.S. citizen and therefore not qualified to run for office of President of the U.S. They admitted to Obama’s non-qualification by their failure to respond to a 30-day court ordered discovery in which Obama and the DNC were ordered to answer a petition by Berg. Berg is a lifelong Democrat in the Pennsylvania Democratic Party who has sought to ratchet up the legal pressure as Obama and the DNC has continually delayed providing certifying documentation of Obama’s birth, which he claims to have been in Hawaii."

So even if 0bama is elected, it appears he will be ineligible to assume office.

OOOOoooops!

Posted by: NeverLeft | October 23, 2008 7:03 PM | Report abuse

"Obama and the DNC has continually delayed providing certifying documentation of Obama’s birth, which he claims to have been in Hawaii."

So even if 0bama is elected, it appears he will be ineligible to assume office.

OOOOoooops!

Posted by: NeverLeft
__________________________________________________

Funny, he gave the LA Times a copy of his birth certificate, which they were kind enough to reprint:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/06/obama-birth.html

And, as the Times points out, since his mother was an American it wouldn't matter anyway. Just as it would not have mattered had McCain's mother been stuck giving birth in Panama City, rather than in the Canal Zone.

Can we please stop with the stupid?

Posted by: dj333 | October 23, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

WaPo pundits, why don't you call the election off and declare the rookie a winner!

You are boring!

Posted by: trace-sc | October 23, 2008 8:13 PM | Report abuse

Back in the 1930's, the "liberal" media outlets supported the socialist Hitler and trashed the conservatives.

Today, the "liberal" media outlets support the socialist Obama and trash the conservatives.

But, here is the difference. Hitler came to power and Obama will not.

Anyway, the most disturbing thing is that the "liberal" (in fact, they are godless socialists) media outlets are in the tank of the party of hate, racism, slavery, intimidation, and violence -- the Democrats.

Setting the Record Straight (part 1)
http://www.freedomsjournalmagazine.com/blog/?p=207

Posted by: loan4ever | October 23, 2008 8:21 PM | Report abuse

The President Who Stole Christmas! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=doChINcDTJU

The Antichrist Has Come! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7vh5LJjJhc

Posted by: loan4ever | October 23, 2008 8:21 PM | Report abuse

loan4ever are sure you want to open that can of worms. For anybody who has been awake that last 8 years to even try to allude that Obama and Hitler have something in common is sheer idiocy. Oh, but maybe you are blinded by your republican love of George (Hitler reborn) Bush. No other President in the great history of this nation has used fear like W to strip us of our rights and basic freedoms. (Sound like Hitler.) One of the first things Hitler did was to get rid of Federal Employees by hiring contractors from companies that supported him, sound like W. No other President has used this much military to force our type of government and "freedoms" unto another country unprovoked, and don't say 9/11 because I will have to give you another basic history lesson.

And by the way, I am a disabled Navy Vet who supports Obama because the real people who work in this great country need some relief.

Posted by: emant2 | October 23, 2008 8:47 PM | Report abuse

loan4ever you are pathetic. Hey, someone had to tell you, might as well hear it from a friend.

Godless Libertarian

Posted by: barfolomew | October 23, 2008 8:49 PM | Report abuse

Hey loan4ever the youtube post you presented. Aren't you concerned that Preacher Manning openly admits to breaking the law? He said "As I told my congregation..." I am sure his church has a tax exempt status, therefore he violated the law by bringing politics into his church. How can a godloving republican stand for anyone breaking the law. I think we should send him to Texas where the republicans know how to deal with lawbreakers.

Posted by: emant2 | October 23, 2008 8:55 PM | Report abuse

loan4ever was that a driveby posting, you must have gone back to your "fair and balanced" foxnews website. However, if you are still here explain to me some questions I have about the bible. Which is a worse sin; killing someone or stealing a piece of candy? And while we are at, where in the bible does it condemn socialism? I am confused because my teachings tell me that every sin is equal in God's eyes, as such why does man have the right to create the death penalty? My teachings also tell me that Jesus wanted to treat everyone equal and to provide food and care to everyone equally, as such what is wrong with nationalized health care and as you republicans like to put it "spreading the wealth around"?

Posted by: emant2 | October 23, 2008 9:05 PM | Report abuse

WWJD - SOCIALISM

Posted by: emant2 | October 23, 2008 9:06 PM | Report abuse

Jesus would also have no problem with spreading the wealth around.

Posted by: emant2 | October 23, 2008 9:07 PM | Report abuse

Jesus would not steal from the rich to share. I would wager a bet that the people who give the most to charity are the rich. Are you sitting there telling me that the government doesn't collect enough money from us as it is. How about control the spending, build a domestic energy solution? All the liberal illuminati think the solution is steal from the rich. Who do you work for? I doubt the poor are currently employing many people in their business. Think with your brain for one minute.

Posted by: mdrew378 | October 23, 2008 10:47 PM | Report abuse

Check out the video 'The Philosophy of Liberty and Government'

Join the Chamber as we work on key issues facing America -- assessing our country's strengths and weaknesses and outlining the public policies we must pursue to succeed in the world economy. Explore our Web site to learn more about critical issues and get involved by adding your name to our petitions.

Sign a Petition:
http://www.friendsoftheuschamber.com/takeaction/index.cfm?ID=85

Card Check Petition
State of American Business Petition
Economic and Tax Policy Petition
Energy and Environment Petition
Health Care Petition
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Legal Reform

James Everitt The Philosophy of Liberty and Government

The “Charters Of Freedom“ refer to the historical documents that established the legal protection of every American citizens rights. While our rights were granted by God, governments throughout history have not consistently recognized those rights. With the signing of the Magna Carta by King John of England in 1215 the slow march toward the legal protection of each individuals rights began.

Many books, essays, and theories had been written between 1215 A.D. and the 4th of July, 1776 that had furthered the cause of liberty but on that day the United States picked up the torch of Liberty from England. That fact carries more than just the benefits of liberty, we have a responsibility to protect it and ensure that the light of liberty is not extinguished. Citizens who are ignorant of the human history of tyranny, and of the long fight for freedom cannot possibly defend it.

The links in this post are to the National Archives website where you can download High Resolution copies of the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights and get lots of information about each document. There are also links to information about the Founding Fathers.

Video link:
The Philosophy of Liberty and Government

About PickensPlan

http://push.pickensplan.com/profile­/JamesEveritt

Posted by: jameseveritt | October 23, 2008 10:56 PM | Report abuse

I think that you are totally missing some key points:

1. The recent Associated Press poll showed that 45% of the voters in this country identify themselves as Evangelical Christians. That's double the numbers from 2004. I think that makes things look very promising for McCain.

2. McCain is totally dominating in real America.

Anyway, that's just my two cents.

http://thatsrightnate.com/2008/10/20/polls-show-mccain-dominating-real-america/

Posted by: Thatsrightnate | October 23, 2008 11:52 PM | Report abuse

NeverLeft, I'm sure you also believe in Roswell, the Illuminati, the grassy knoll, the Protocols of the Elders of Zion, the Reptoids, and The Book of Urantia as well.

Time to add a new layer to the tinfoil hat.

Posted by: nodebris | October 24, 2008 2:45 AM | Report abuse

Please, please don't get complacent. You have to get out there and vote!!!! Every vote will count. Virginia is critical. Just because Obama is way ahead in sone polls doesn't mean he will win. Not without all of his supporters voting.

GO OBAMA!!!!!!!! I've never, ever been half this excited about a Presidential candidate. He is exactly the change we need to give our children a better world.

Posted by: july3 | October 24, 2008 7:52 AM | Report abuse

"Pollsters tend to round up aggressively in compiling their data, so that there's no room for the perception that they're selectively rounding certain numbers up or down to fit a preferred outcome. It's part of what accounts for the margin of error typically being +/- 3 percentage points."

What you say is incorrect. Rounding has nothing to do with it. When looking at the percent each group makes up of a total, they have to total to 100%, not 103% as shown in the original PDF file.

The Post realized the mistake because if you look at the PDF file now you will see that the party affiliation percents have been fixed to show:

Dem 36%, Rep 27%, Ind 33%, Other 3%, No Opinion 1%.

When they released the poll they incorrectly showed 36% for independents, as I mentioned above.

It will be interesting to see what happens with the election given the huge disparity in the polls. Obama leads in all of them, however, the margin varies from 11% percentage points in this poll to less than 1 percentage point in another. Undecideds in the polls are also very different with this poll showing only 4% and other showing as many as 11%.

I believe the party affiliation in the Post/ABC poll is incorrect. At max, I think the difference between dems and reps will be about 4 percentage points.

In 2004, the difference between the dems and reps in the Post poll was about 1-2 percentage points and their 10/31/04 poll had Bush ahead only by 1 percentage point (49-48).

As we saw, Bush won by nearly 3 percentage points.

Granted, McCain is more like Kerry in that he isn't drawing as many from his own party. So in the Post's 2004 poll Bush drew 90-92% of his own party's vote, McCain is now only pulling 86%.

If McCain moves up 2 percentage points (to 88%) and Obama moves down by 1-2 percentage points (to 88%) in that category, the election will come down to turnout and independents just like in 2004.

There is a possibility that Obama could win the popular vote but lose the electoral college vote if the race is close because of huge turnout in the very blue states like New York, Illinois and California.

If Obama is ahead by 5 percentage points, with party affiliation favoring dems by 4 percentage, I don't think McCain can win. But remember, Bush was down by two points in the Post poll for 10/21-10/24/04.

Posted by: SAM13 | October 24, 2008 10:12 AM | Report abuse

I don't think that the polls is right.
watch funny videos http://www.frizle.com

Posted by: roverfind | October 24, 2008 10:15 AM | Report abuse

About Obama's birth certificate:

I really doubt that an 18 year-old girl would have left the country to give birth in a third world country. On the surface it doesn't make sense.

But I also don't understand why Obama won't release his birth certificate and quiet all of the questions. The LAT has a certified copy from the Daily Kos website, not from Obama.

Posted by: SAM13 | October 24, 2008 10:24 AM | Report abuse

2. McCain is totally dominating in real America.

Anyway, that's just my two cents.

http://thatsrightnate.com/2008/10/20/polls-show-mccain-dominating-real-america/

Posted by: Thatsrightnate
********************************
here's a quarter - call someone who cares...

Posted by: LABC | October 24, 2008 10:40 AM | Report abuse

I gotta tell you, as a high school teacher in his 50's, I have never before seen the youth of America so energized by a presidential campaign. I was amazed that even eight or nine months ago during the primaries, the kids were so tuned in to the events happening before them. Many kids turn 18 in high school, and I think they, plus recent graduates, are going to participate like they haven't since the 1970's. I think many people will be surprised by the young voter turnout this time. We're not hearing much about this age group in the polling right now, but I think we will come Nov. 4, when the exit polls are examined closely.

Posted by: SomeGuy6 | October 24, 2008 11:01 PM | Report abuse

Frankly, I can't wait for Obama to get elected. Since there will have to be an increase in payroll taxes to fund Social Security, Medicare, universal healthcare, those who are employed won’t have much left to spend. I won't have to pay a dime since I will be retired in a few years. I'll be living in a house that I own outright, while the rest of you pay $8 or more for gas, pay your high rent, and ever increasing payroll taxes. Also, since I will make under $150,000 a year, I’ll get a tax break under Obama. My 401k has been safe since I moved it out of equities. I wonder if any of you did the same.

Obama will have to tax us. He has no choice. 700 billion to bail out Wall Street. 700 billion in deficits. All of it is coming out of your pockets. Obama wants to tax corporations. Countries , like Ireland , are trying to lure corporations to their country. Obama wants to tax corporations 40%. Ireland taxes corporations 12%. Guess where all your jobs will go once corporations are taxed 40%? Obama wants to tax small businesses. Small businesses employ most of the workers in the USA. If small businesses are taxed more, they won’t employ as many workers or they will increase the price of goods and services. This is not rocket science. If you think 6.1% unemployment is bad, wait until you see double digit unemployment, just like the Jimmy Carter years.

To all you young, employed Obama supporters who will be working until you're at least 70 or more, I want to thank you, in advance, for paying exorbitant payroll taxes to fund my early retirement. Go Obama!

Posted by: Dodgers1 | October 25, 2008 3:29 PM | Report abuse

Oh pulleze stop on the birth certificate. Factcheck.org went to Hawaii for an official copy for themselves. Go look on their website: http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html

I want to know why the "vast left wing conspiracy media" is obsessed with ACORN but never talks about Sproul. You know, the guy the RNC hired last time to register voters, who tore up the Democratic registrations. How is it that his firm was hired again this year by McCain Palin? http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4992730.ece

Posted by: patriot16 | October 25, 2008 7:37 PM | Report abuse

Dodgers1. Can you explain why Obama would have to raise our taxes because of the bailout and deficit (and wars, etc), but McCain wouldn't? Please, if McCain has a plan to fund these already existing debts without taxes why is it that even Fox has failed to share it with us?

By saying that payroll taxes will go up under Obama to fund Medicare and Social Security are you saying that McCain would eliminate these? If not, why would they cost us more under Obama but not McCain. Please explain.

Its really too bad that McCain forgot to explain that nasty little sales tax of 20% on goods and services that Ireland has to pay for its 12% corporate tax rate. Are you saying that McCain should take us to a similar plan - give corporations bigger golden parachutes so their employees can pay a 20% tax on everything they buy (including services, not just goods)? I guess it sure sounds good if you're a stockholder, for the factory worker, not so much.

Posted by: patriot16 | October 25, 2008 7:47 PM | Report abuse

Don't pay attention to Dodgers1, he's a copy and paste campaign volunteer (or possibly even worker). I've seen the EXACT same text in numerous comments sections all over the internet, posted by a number of different people. It is not the sentiments of any one person, rather it is McCain campaign propaganda.

Posted by: PennyP1 | October 26, 2008 6:31 PM | Report abuse

What an interesting picture is being painted as we head down to the wire. These numbers are an indication of America's desire to Change. And, the indications are that many Americans are willing to admit, with their vote, that they've changed their perspectives from 4 years ago.

And, they are further indicating that they do not accept John McCain's assertion that his policies are that much different from George W. Bush's. I admit that I favored, George W. Bush, TWICE, in the last eight years. I while I admit certain failings of this Administration, I will not try to separate myself from the policies. And, I will not bad-mouth Presdient Bush. He remains, MY President.

But, then, I am NOT running for President. John McCain will have to deal with his own standards of truth.

Posted by: hwilfongjr | October 26, 2008 6:58 PM | Report abuse

My! There certainly are a lot of crackpots posting today!"loan4ever" : This ridiculous accusation of Obama being the anti-Christ can be easily cleared up. Read "Revelation" in your Bible. All the so-called Christians who spout this nonsense have apparently never read THEIR Bible. The claim they make of the anti-Christ as a dark skinned man in his 40s from a Muslim background appears NOWHERE in the Bible. In fact, the Muslim religion didn't even come into being until 200 years after Revelation was written.The REAL ant-Christ, as described in the Bible, is a multi-headed dragon. Sorry to burst your bubble.
"neverleft": The crackpot theory that Obama wasn't born in the US and is not a citizen has been repeatedly debunked. The fact that wingnuts keep filing lawsuits doesn't make it a legitimate case. Frivolous lawsuits are filed all the time. You answered your own question when you said the first two lawsuits didn't result in Obama not being able to run for president. There's a reason for that. The charges were found to be groundless, and the cases were thrown out. Now put on your tinfoil hat and take your medication.

Posted by: winnie47 | October 26, 2008 11:24 PM | Report abuse

My there sure are a lot of crackpots posting tonight!"loan4ever": As far as calling Obama the anti-Christ, there is a very easy way to settle that. Read "Revelation" in your Bible. It is astonishing to me that any Christian would spout this crap, because the rumored version of the anti-Christ as a "dark-skinned man in his 40s from a Muslim background" appears NOWHERE in the Bible. The Muslim religion didn't even come into being until 200 years AFTER "Revelation" was written. The real description of the anti-Christ, or the Beast, is a multi-headed dragon. Sorry to burst your bubble.
"neverleft": The phony birth certificate issue has been debunked NUMEROUS times. Just because a bunch of wingnuts file lawsuits, that doesn't make it a legitimate issue. Frivolous lawsuits are filed all the time. The very fact that the first two didn't cause Obama to be removed from the presidential race is because the cases were proved to be unfounded and thrown out of court. Get over it and get a life.

Posted by: winnie47 | October 26, 2008 11:36 PM | Report abuse

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