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WaPo-ABC Tracking: Race, Ethnicity and Turnout

Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, topping John McCain by a 53 to 44 percent margin among likely voters.

Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.

African Americans express near unanimous support for Obama, 97 percent to 1 percent in the latest tracking poll, and only about 4 percent remain even "movable," lower than the 8 percent of all likely voters who said they could still be swayed over the final weekend.

Latino voters also break for Obama by a wide, 68 to 29 percent margin. As among African Americans, nearly all Latinos have made up their minds for sure, with 5 percent saying there's even a chance they could move. As Krissah Williams Thompson notes in her story on Hispanics in today's paper, the economy is a big driver of the vote: Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics trust Obama to do a better job on the issue.

Three in 10 Latinos in the poll said they will be casting their first presidential ballot this year, more than the 22 percent who said 2004 was their first trip to the voting booth, according to the network exit poll.

But it is speculation about African American turnout and its impact that continues to be topic No. 1, particularly as reports of massive early voting among blacks trickle out.

A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. But in states that have been the subject of much early-voting fueled furor, such as Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, the required boost was far larger.

Full data from the Post-ABC tracking poll can be found here, some key crosstabs on presidential vote are below:

                 Obama   McCain
All voters         53      44
Men                49      46
Women              55      42

White men          44      53
White women        48      49

Whites             46      50
All non-whites     80      16
African Americans  97       1
Hispanics          68      29

Democrats          88      10
Republicans        11      86
Independents       50      46

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  October 31, 2008; 5:00 PM ET
Categories:  Tracking  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: WaPo-ABC Tracking: Breaking Up Is Hard To Do
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Your link to the full data doesn't work. Please fix.

Posted by: SAM13 | October 31, 2008 7:28 PM | Report abuse

note to self...another "tick" up, more of a trending thing then fluctuating...

Posted by: angriestdogintheworld | October 31, 2008 7:30 PM | Report abuse

Audience members removed at McCain rally in Cedar Falls

People throw out because of their looks:

Posted by: jneill7854 | October 31, 2008 7:40 PM | Report abuse

Come November 4, we will be voting for the next President of the USA (POTUS). I am asking you to completely ignore the VP position ... it is of no importance. After all, Gov. Palin is an alleged news-media SNL airhead and Senator Biden could not convince his own Democrat folks during the Democratic primaries that he was presidential material. I hope you haven't forgotten our illustrious and ignorant former VP Dan Quayle.

Therefore, the most important question we should ask ourselves is: Who has the senatorial experience to cross over party lines to approve legislation in Capitol Hill since the Democratic-controlled Senate and House (currently with less than a 30% approval rate) cant seem to do so: Obama (4 yrs) or McCain (20 yrs)?

Yes ... We all hate Bush ... and, yes, I currently have 2 sons in the Iraqi sandbox thanks to him ... and, yes, I almost had my home foreclosed.

Let me ask you a simple question: If you were a recruiter in the HR department of a multinational business corporation in search of a Chief Executive Officer (CEO), would you choose an elocuent candidate with 4 yrs of experience or a seasoned 20-yr open-minded individual?

If your main interest is to be a historical participant of having the first African-American POTUS, you should then had chosen Colin Powell - a retired US Army general (like our former 34th President, Ike Eisenhower) and the first African-American US Secretary of State - as your presidential candidate ... not a first-term junior senator - WHITE, BLACK, or HISPANIC ... and I would have definitely voted for Colin Powell regardless of his political affiliation.

Come November 4, I urge you to vote intelligently ... if not, may God have mercy on our souls.

PS: God bless the USA and may our Warriors return Home safely.

Posted by: john_doe_washington_dc | October 31, 2008 8:05 PM | Report abuse

Mccain gets all this credit for foreign affairs simply because he has been in the senate. As Woody Allen said "showing up is 99%". however,many serious members of the senate who have also served with McCain have an entirely different view. Domenichi(R)NM says he would not want McCain anywhere near a trigger. Hagel,good friend of McCain but thinks his world views would only lead us to more wars. Mccain is unable to give any specifics only threats-Bomb Iran,next stop Baghdad etc. Colin Powell weighed McCain against Obama and chose Obama. The world has changed since McCain was a "warrior' and the old methods will not work against terrorism. A broad and thoughtful effort with the military as a part,but not the main part is necessary. mcCain has neither the knowledge or the patience to deal with the present world affairs.. He will act like George W. and blunder impulsively from one disaster to the next.

Posted by: ephetsgma | October 31, 2008 8:37 PM | Report abuse

To John Doe:
Sir, experience in prior Federal office is not a logical criterion for choosing a president. If it was, then one would have supported Vice President Gore in 2000, President Bush in 1992, President Carter in 1980 and President Ford in 1976. Now,can you imagine any person ever voting in such a bizarre pattern? It's far more important to consider the candidate's qualities of intellect, temperament and character. As Frederick the Great observed when asked when he gave an important command to a young officer instead of a much more experienced general, "There is a pack mule who has been with me on every campaign for over twenty years AND HE IS STILL A MULE!"

Posted by: bfiedleri | October 31, 2008 11:19 PM | Report abuse

Just a note on early voting and turnout. I am becoming convinced that in many states with early voting, like Ohio where I live, the lines may well be shorter on election day than for early voting. Having waited for more than 2 hours in line in 2004, I am going to be happy to be voting as the polls open at 6:30 AM on Tuesday.

I have twice gone to the local Columbus early voting site (there is only one for this entire county of 1.1 million residents) and have found the lines to appear to be about 2 hours in length both times. I have seen televised reports and print reports of people waiting even longer for early voting at other Ohio locations and in other states.

I have therefore concluded that I best avoid the lines by arriving at my polling precinct two blocks from my residence about 6:15 Tuesday, 15 minutes before polls open. I'm thinking that way I'll have a good chance to have voted by 7 AM.

Posted by: OHIOCITIZEN | October 31, 2008 11:24 PM | Report abuse

If you are an Obama supporter , do not think that this is in the bag . Don't be a JOE THE PLUMBER. Joe talks a lot about all his big ideas, but it is all BS. I have known guys like him and they talk all the time about all the big things that they are going to do. But they never follow through on the smallest things that would set them up for where they want to be . Make up your mind today on a plan of action to go vote for Obama and then follow through. You can dream about an Obama victory, but unless you go vote, you'll never be part of it, and there may not be an Obama victory. Don't be a BS'er like Joe the Plumber.

Posted by: majorteddy | November 1, 2008 12:21 AM | Report abuse

Sad to see such data.

Black and white, with a little bit of brown.

There's a myriad of other ethnicities, including two huge voting blocks: Hispanic and Asian.

Non-white? What's that? This is as bad as the census not having a category for Arab.

Posted by: kolbkl | November 1, 2008 6:36 PM | Report abuse

Dear John Doe,
As an African American, I could not in good conscience vote for John McCain, he has made it clear that the United States he serves does not include me or people like me or lets say people that do not look like him.

I do thank about the VP spot, if something happens to him, we will be left with Sarah Palin making the decision regarding our lives and the lives of our children fighting the 2 wars.

I also thank about the fact that we can not afford to continue to provide warfare to the rich and to big corporations and hope it trickles down to us, (News Flash it doesn’t). Obama knows from the Clinton years that when the middle class is doing well the economy is strong.

I am tired of Joe the plumber scenario being used as a campaign slogan. The reality is Joe the Plumber's business went bankrupt because Sally the unemployed teacher, and Mike the unemployed factory worker and Dave the unemployed car salesman and Larry the unemployed construction worker could not afford his services and guess what they lost their homes too.

Also think about the people who will send out children to war, and not provide proper health care when they return wounded or pay to take care of their families while they are fighting for our freedom., or provide proper equipment like guns that work or bullet proof vest. Patriotic doesn’t just mean supporting the President blindly without expecting he provide these basic needs for our soldiers.

So I proudly support Mr. Obama, because of his intelligence, his compassion and his steadiness in crisis.

Posted by: aharris3 | November 1, 2008 8:06 PM | Report abuse

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