WaPo-ABC Tracking: Race, Ethnicity and Turnout
Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Washington Post-ABC News daily tracking poll, topping John McCain by a 53 to 44 percent margin among likely voters.
Obama currently outpaces recent Democratic nominees among white voters, but his advantage among nonwhite voters is even more dramatic. Overall, nonwhites go for Obama over McCain 80 to 16 percent, with African Americans and Hispanics in particular providing a big boost to the Democrat.
African Americans express near unanimous support for Obama, 97 percent to 1 percent in the latest tracking poll, and only about 4 percent remain even "movable," lower than the 8 percent of all likely voters who said they could still be swayed over the final weekend.
Latino voters also break for Obama by a wide, 68 to 29 percent margin. As among African Americans, nearly all Latinos have made up their minds for sure, with 5 percent saying there's even a chance they could move. As Krissah Williams Thompson notes in her story on Hispanics in today's paper, the economy is a big driver of the vote: Nearly two-thirds of Hispanics trust Obama to do a better job on the issue.
Three in 10 Latinos in the poll said they will be casting their first presidential ballot this year, more than the 22 percent who said 2004 was their first trip to the voting booth, according to the network exit poll.
But it is speculation about African American turnout and its impact that continues to be topic No. 1, particularly as reports of massive early voting among blacks trickle out.
A few months ago, the Post took a look at how a boost in black turnout could benefit Obama, assessing the results using two scenarios, one in which Obama took John F. Kerry's share of the vote among African Americans, and another in which he won 95 percent of black voters. In the clearly more realistic 95 percent scenario, if turnout among non-blacks held steady, Obama would win Ohio without any boost in black turnout and Nevada with a slim 8 percent uptick. But in states that have been the subject of much early-voting fueled furor, such as Louisiana, Georgia, and North Carolina, the required boost was far larger.
Full data from the Post-ABC tracking poll can be found here, some key crosstabs on presidential vote are below:
Obama McCain All voters 53 44 Men 49 46 Women 55 42 White men 44 53 White women 48 49 Whites 46 50 All non-whites 80 16 African Americans 97 1 Hispanics 68 29 Democrats 88 10 Republicans 11 86 Independents 50 46
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