McDonnell's Thesis: Backlash

Northern Virginians and independent women are the two groups whose vote preferences took a sharp turn in the new Washington Post poll on the upcoming Virginia gubernatorial election.

Among Northern Virginians, a near-even contest has turned into a solid lead for R. Creigh Deeds, the Democratic candidate, while independent women moved from a 28-point lead in favor of Republican Robert F. McDonnell to a 50 to 47 percent tilt to Deeds.

While the shift cannot be directly attributed to news about McDonnell's graduate school thesis, Northern Virginian and independent women voters are now much more apt to consider McDonnell too conservative, and broadly disagree with the ideals McDonnell advocated in the paper.

Northern Virginians are twice as likely as others in the state to say that government policies should treat homosexuality as acceptable, and half feel strongly that it would be worse for the country if women went back to the traditional roles they had in the 1950s.

Among independent women, perceptions of McDonnell as too conservative have risen sharply, and four in 10 say they feel strongly that reverting to traditional gender roles would make things worse.

Q. Do you think McDonnell's views on most issues are too liberal for you, too conservative for you, or just about right?

               Too         Too        Just about     No
             liberal   conservative      right     opinion 
All:
September       7           40            47          5
August          6           30            46         18

Northern Virginia:
September       3           54            37          6
August          2           43            42         13

Independent women:
September       7           41            47          5
August          7           25            46         21

Q. In his thesis, McDonnell criticized working mothers and homosexuals as detrimental to families and urged the promotion of traditional values through government. McDonnell calls this not in-line with his current views while Deeds says this shows McDonnell's real positions on these issues. In thinking about your vote for governor, does this thesis make you more likely to support McDonnell, less likely or won't it affect your vote one way or the other?

             ---- More likely ----   ---- Less likely ----   Won't
             NET   Much   Somewhat   NET   Somewhat   Much   affect
All          11      7        4      30        9       21      58

Northern VA   9      5        4      40        9       31      50
Others        8      4        4      26        9       17      61

Ind. women    6      5        2      30        9       20      61
Ind. men     12      6        6      24       10       14      62

Q. Considering everything, do you think it would be better or worse for the country if men and women went back to the traditional roles they had in the 1950s, or don't you think it would make a difference?

             ------ Better ------   ------- Worse ------       No
             NET   Strgly   Smwht   NET   Smwht   Strgly   difference
All          22      15       7     42      7       36         30

Northern VA   9       4       5     58      8       50         29
Others       27      19       8     37      6       30         31


Ind. women   23      16       6     47      7       40         23
Ind. men     18      13       6     39      7       32         37

Q. Which view comes closest to your own: Government should promote policies and programs discouraging homosexuality, Government should promote policies and programs that treat homosexuality as acceptable, -OR- Government should not get involved in this issue.

                               Treat       Not get
              Discourage   as acceptable   involved
All              11             19            69

Northern VA       5             30            65
Others           13             15            71

Ind. women        9             15            74
Ind. men          7             16            77