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New WaPo Virginia Poll: The Crosstabs

With one week to go before voters in Virginia head to the polls, Republican Robert F. McDonnell has a double-digit lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds according to a new Washington Post poll. Here are selected crosstabs from the new poll of 1,206 likely voters. Want others? Tell us in the comments section, and we'll do our best to provide. More results and question wording from the poll can be found here.

Q. If the election were being held today and the candidates were Creigh Deeds, the Democrat and Bob McDonnell, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                     Deeds   McDonnell
All likely voters      44%      55%

Men                    39       59
Women                  48       50

White                  34       64
African American       89       10

Age 18-34              53       46
Age 35-64              43       55
Age 65+                39       59

Democrats              94        6
Republicans             4       95
Independents           36       61

Liberal Democrats      95        5
Mod/cons. Democrats    93        6

Mod/lib. Republicans    7       91
Conservative Reps.      2       97

Democratic men         92        8
Democratic women       95        4
Republican men          4       95
Republican women        4       95
Independent men        33       64
Independent women      40       57

Military veterans      34       66

Northern Virginia      56       43
    Inner suburbs         60       39
Rest of state          38       60
    Southeast             43       54
    East/Richmond         37       62
    West/Shenandoah       36       63

Obama '08 voter        85       14
McCain '08 voter        4       95

Kaine '05 voter        76       22
Kilgore '05 voter       2       97

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  October 26, 2009; 5:06 PM ET
Categories:  Crosstabs , Virginia  
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Next: The Obama factor: Virginia edition


a new era of conservatism is sweeping the nation

Posted by: mock1ngb1rd | October 26, 2009 6:42 PM | Report abuse

The voters of Virginia have realized that with a Saul Alinsky disciple in the White House that some balance is necessary. Obama spent his formative years in Indonesia and did not internalize the values supported by the majority of Americans. His election does not bode well for the future of the country.

Posted by: tsapp77 | October 26, 2009 6:47 PM | Report abuse

The Post seems to be trying to be putting a spin in Deeds trailing by saying that it is not related to a negative perception of Obama's performance as President so far, and of what is going on in Washington (The Post, of course, had always supported Obama tooth and nail). But there is growing evidence of a national backlash against Obama and the Congressional Democrats for their huge defecit spending...that is also evident in New Jersey, not just here in Virginia. Like it or not for the Democrats, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Posted by: MMCarhelp | October 26, 2009 7:02 PM | Report abuse

If VA votes in a Pat Robertson disciple, they should expect McDonnell to shove right-wing christianity down their throats at every chance he gets. If that's what VA wants they will get it. If they don't think that will happen they have not paid attention for the past 8 years.

I'm no Deeds fan, but at least he was not beholden to a fanatic like Robertson. Hold on to your hats VA, you are about to become the first test state for taking back America for God. Oh the lawsuits you will be filing as you try to fend off McDonnell's right wing forced feedings. Oh the trials as unqualified (but very right wing and christian) people are given jobs in a McDonnell administration. Maybe this will work out well since it will be a reminder just what America went through for the past 8 years.

Seems people in VA have short memories. You are about to be reminded of why Bush had approval ratings in the low 30s. Good luck VA. We in MD will be ready with tents and food for the refugees that are sure to come. Better start checking to see if a VA governor can be impeached. It will save you time.

Posted by: Fate1 | October 26, 2009 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Gotta say, Deeds isn't running the campaign I thought he would; thought he'd be able to keep it even in the Valley and West and put on a strong show in the outer NOVA suburbs. What the heck has the guy been doing?

A major turn-out-the-vote op in by the Democrats in urban areas could still pull out a squeaker for Deeds, but he's sure not making it easy.

Posted by: nodebris | October 26, 2009 11:32 PM | Report abuse

I'm baffled why they didn't include a few simple questions about Jody Wagner and Steve Shannon (as in: do you plan to vote for them or their opponent).

Virginia has a ticket-splitting history in the last several elections -- for example, Tim Kaine (D) as governor, Bill Bolling (R) and Bob McDonnell (R) as lieutenant governor and attorney general. Maybe that won't happen this time, maybe it will, but it's certainly a mystery in the absence of any polling data. I guess the pollsters want those two outcomes to be more of a surprise for all of us? It just seems silly.

Perhaps a better way to put it is that this poll includes the questions a national paper might ask, but not a local or regional paper serving readers who live in Virginia and therefore covering state politics. The Post used to be able to do both. This poll doesn't.

Posted by: fairfaxvoter | October 26, 2009 11:46 PM | Report abuse

There may be a cooling of ardor for Obama politics, but the main culprit in Deeds' trailing numbers is Deeds' failure to mount a crisp imaginative, policy based, disciplined campaign. Republicans would do well to not assume too much of the likely McDonnell victory will be due to an ideological shift away from the ideas that put Obama in the White House.

For example, no one in my household has voted for a Republican in 20 years. One of us donated $25 to John Warner many years ago for his support for women's rights. I have received 6 phone calls from the McDonnell campaign asking whether I was going to vote and then urging me to vote absentee; zero calls from the Deeds campaign. Who is working the lists? QED.

Posted by: ccforbes | October 26, 2009 11:48 PM | Report abuse

If McDonnell, Bolling and Cucinelli win this race then Virginia will represent The American Taliban in this country. It means that Virginia as a state will always look back to the well ordered days where everyone knew their place. So much for progress and a new century.

Posted by: fabricmaven1 | October 27, 2009 12:26 AM | Report abuse

Wapoo bumps Mcdonnell up just before the oBama visit. I anticipate it will probably post a drop two days after to give Deeds a final boost.

Virginians like me simply got tired of Deeds negativity and lack of substance. It's not really about left wing - right wing because both party's leadership makes me sick.

This vote is for Mcdonnell, I'm tired of the poor leadship in Richmond.

Posted by: binghe | October 27, 2009 8:56 AM | Report abuse

National backlash against Obama?
Boo, this is a state wide race, not a national one and it's also the only one the Republican leads in.
Statewide government is dominated by statewide issues, not national ones. If there is a backlash, it would probably be in 2010 during the congressional elections, not in local politics.
There is also the unfortunate fact that Obama polls well over 50% so...backlash? Contrary to what the conservative media likes to portray, he's not in trouble with the wider electorate, only the conservative base. I know you guys hate him a lot, but that doesn't mean everybody else hates him a little.

Posted by: dijetlo | October 27, 2009 9:23 AM | Report abuse

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