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Republicans, Democrats deadlocked in ballot test: Post-ABC poll

The new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds Democrats and Republicans near deadlocked in a generic ballot test, with 47 percent of registered voters backing the Republican candidate in their own U.S. House district and 46 percent behind the Democrat. Likely voters break 49 percent for the Republican, 45 percent for the Democrat. A few highlights from the crosstabs:

  • Republicans, whether they consider themselves strongly tied to the party or not, are near universal in their support for the Republican candidate in their home district. Those who consider themselves "not so strong" Democrats are more apt to defect (16 percent say they'd vote for the GOP candidate, compared with 2 percent of strong Democrats).
  • There's a broad gender gap on the question, with a narrow majority of women behind the Democratic candidate and the same share of men backing the Republican in their district. The GOP advantage among men is the largest of this cycle.
  • Republicans have clear majority support in the Midwest; in 2008, voters there broke 54 percent for Obama to 44 percent for McCain.
  • Views on the economy's direction and income level divide voters sharply.

Q. (ASKED OF REGISTERED VOTERS) If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives in November were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district?

LEANED VOTE:

                   Dem     Rep
                   cand.   cand.
Registered voters   46      47
Likely voters       45      49

Among registered voters:

Male                38      52
Female              52      42

Democrat            89       7
Republican           3      96
Independent         40      47

Strong Dem.         95       2
Not strong Dem.     79      16

Strong Rep.          2      97
Not strong Rep.      5      93

Liberal             77      18
Moderate            56      35
Conservative        19      75

Lib. Dem.           95       2
Mod/Con Dem.        86      11
Lib/Mod Rep.         5      91
Con. Rep.            2      98

East                43      46
Midwest             40      53
South               49      45
West                47      44

18-29               56      37
30-64               44      49
65+                 44      48

Non-college         46      46
College Grad        44      49

Among whites:
Non-college         37      55
College Grad        35      58

<$50K               54      38
$50K - <$100K       45      49
>=$100K             37      58

Economy is:
Getting better      67      25
Getting worse       27      65
Staying the same    45      47

White               36      56
Black               81      11
Non-white           71      21

SOURCE: Washington Post-ABC News poll.

By Jennifer Agiesta  |  July 13, 2010; 10:12 AM ET
Categories:  44 The Obama Presidency , Congress , Crosstabs , Post Polls  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   Del.icio.us   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: New Post-ABC poll; poll chat @ noon
Next: Deconstructing confidence in Obama

Comments

I wish this poll had a better breakdown of that 30-64 group, and that it told us how many people were in each age/gender/race group.

Posted by: dkp01 | July 13, 2010 12:15 PM | Report abuse

I wish the poll released more metadata on the people polled, e.g., is this a random group or a regularly polled group; how the people are selected for interviews; and while the interviewees are identified by region, it may also be useful to know whether they are from rural/urban areas with industrial/agricultural/tourism/dot.com etc economic focus.

Posted by: nitellub | July 13, 2010 12:45 PM | Report abuse

nitellub, agreed. And I'd like to see the breakdown of answers between registered voters and non-voters.

Cohen said he's happy to provide the numbers in the chat, hope there's an update to the blog.

Posted by: dkp01 | July 13, 2010 1:07 PM | Report abuse


July 14, 2010
Generic Congressional Vote Bloomberg
Republicans 48, Democrats 40 Republicans +8

Posted by: screwjob17 | July 14, 2010 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Rasmussen generic congressional vote is 44% Republicans, 38% Democrats Republicans +6. Rasmussen has been the more accurate pollster since 200 so they get the nod for accuracy, a Bloomberg poll is automatically suspect because of the owner of Bloomberg.

Posted by: zcxnissan | July 15, 2010 10:20 PM | Report abuse

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