Poll: O'Malley holds sizable 54-40 lead over Ehrlich

In the new Washington Post poll, Governor Martin O'Malley holds a commanding 54-40 lead in his rematch against Bob Ehrlich among likely voters, about the same as a month ago. Here are some highlights among subgroups:

Ehrlich leads O'Malley by a slim 50-44 margin among whites, while nearly nine in 10 African Americans support O'Malley. Ehrlich won whites by nine points four years ago and by 30 points in 2002.

Among moderate or conservative Democrats, a key group the Ehrlich campaign needs to peel off from O'Malley's coalition, Ehrlich trails 86-10.

The incumbent's support is broad based: O'Malley leads across all age groups and all education and income categories.

A bright spot for O'Malley is that he leads 73-23 among the 17 percent of voters who say the biggest problem facing the state today is taxes. O'Malley wins so-called education voters 79-13 and leads 55-39 among the four in 10 Marylanders who say the state's economy is issue #1.

Q. (ASKED OF LIKELY VOTERS) If the Maryland governor's election were held today, for whom would you vote?

LEANED VOTE:

              O'Malley   Ehrlich 
Likely voters    54        40

Sex:

Male             46        48
Female           62        33

Race:

White            44        50
Afr. Amrcn.      88         6

Party ID:

Democrats        88         7
Republicans       6        92
Independents     36        52

Party & Ideology:

Lib Dems         91         4
Mod/Cons Dems    86        10
Cons Reps         4        93

Age:

18-39            53        39
40-49            52        43
50-64            54        41
65+              57        36

Education:

College          59        36
Non-college      50        43

Education and race:

White College    52        44
White Non-coll.  38        55

Top issue:

Top issue: taxes 23        73
Top issue: econ  55        39
Top issue: educ  79        13

Region:

Baltimore City   75        19
Baltimore Burbs  45        45
Anne Arun./How   41        54
Montgomery       65        33
Prince George's  83        11
Rest of state    38        57