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Statistical analysis: The future is now for Carlzner

Statistical analysis

Editor's note: Welcome to a new feature that will appear here every week. Our InsiderĀ² series is intended to give readers a deeper look at the numbers of Washington's sports teams. As the Caps stats blogger, Neil Greenberg will crunch some numbers in a way that answers questions about the team's performance. We hope you enjoy this different look at the game and welcome any feedback in the comments section.

When the Washington Capitals decided to stay on the sidelines and not add a free agent defenseman this offseason, all eyes turned to the defensive future of the organization -- first-round picks Karl Alzner (2007) and John Carlson (2008) -- to fill the need.

Both have showed they can handle the pressure of big games. Alzner, 21, won World Junior Hockey Championship gold medals in 2007 and 2008 with team Canada, while Carlson, 20, scored the game-winning goal in overtime of the 2010 gold-medal game to beat Canada, 6-5.

So what does the future hold for American Hero John Carlson and King Karl Alzner? Good things, according to Tom Awad's Defensive GVT (DGVT) metric.

DGVT is measured in goals, with a higher number being better than a lower one. Like any all-inclusive metric, it has some shortcomings, but it provides us with enough insight into which defensemen are keeping pucks out of their own net.

For example, Norris Trophy Winner Duncan Keith had one of the highest DVGT ratings (8.8) in 2009-10 while Brendan Witt had one of the lowest (-1.4). Mike Green, for all the criticism he takes for his defensive game, had a respectable DGVT of 5.3 last season while teammate Jeff Schultz, who led the NHL in plus/minus, tallied a DGVT of 6.0.

Alzner had a DGVT of 1.2 in his rookie season followed up by a DGVT of -.40 last year. The downturn could be attributed to being deployed mostly in the defensive zone (started only only 43.1% of the time in the offensive zone last year as opposed to 53.1% the year before), which is why he could bounce back even stronger than he was in his rookie campaign.

Carlson's DGVT of 1.4 puts his first-year rating in the top half for comparable players (defensemen since the 1973-74 season who, at age 20, played between 20 and 30 games at the NHL level in their rookie season). In addition, his offensive ability probably ensures him a majority of time in the offensive zone; that will help him keep pucks out of his own net and contribute to a higher DGVT.

We can see that the DGVT of comparable players tends to spike in year two, level off a bit and then rise again with an average peak in year 5 or year 6:



Applying this curve to Alzner and Carlson's individual careers, they are each projected to be around 3.5 DGVT by the end of 2011 -- an upgrade over the two defensemen they would be replacing in Shaone Morrisonn (.70) and Joe Corvo (-.50).

Perhaps the biggest benefit is an economical one: a blue liner with a DVGT of 3.0 to 3.9 would cost about $3.69 million (and be about 30 years old) while Carlzner make a combined $2.52 million in 2010-11.

Not only is the future now, it comes at a bargain price with tremendous upside and a cool nickname.


Neil Greenberg became interested in the mathematical side of sports in 1990, when he discovered Bill James and his statistical analysis of baseball. Over the past few years, he discovered a similar community focused around hockey and started to apply those methods to the Caps in an attempt to better understand the game. Neil also writes for Russian Machine Never Breaks, and you can follow him on Twitter here.

By Neil Greenberg  | September 20, 2010; 1:52 PM ET
Categories:  John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Statistical analysis  
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Comments

Hey! You smell!

That should take you down a peg.

Posted by: Semvechkin | September 20, 2010 2:17 PM | Report abuse

This will undoubtedly be sgm3's favorite feature every week. Everyone look forward to him using the DGVT to back up ALL of his arguments for Dmen from this point forward, I can hardly wait!

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 2:20 PM | Report abuse

Stats don't tell you everything but they're better than most opinions on this blog

Posted by: jeets | September 20, 2010 2:23 PM | Report abuse

What they didnt mention was that Eric Belanger scored a 10.0 on the DGVT.

The Didnt Go to Virginia due to failed Trade metric.

Posted by: SeminAllOverTheIce | September 20, 2010 2:28 PM | Report abuse

Glad to see Witt singled out here, for all of you fans of him. The stat is very consistent with my visual impression.

Posted by: zmega | September 20, 2010 2:33 PM | Report abuse

And his name is the only one that didnt even get hyperlinked. That's just mean.

Posted by: SeminAllOverTheIce | September 20, 2010 2:36 PM | Report abuse

sgm's statistics machine just got a boner.

but worth carrying this over much to his chagrin i imagine--

-----------------------
73 games over three years qualifies as barely in my opinion as that is less than 30% of the games they have played over that span.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 1:49 PM | Report abuse

hmm..I've watched about 15-20 Bear games per season and some of the playoffs. Back in '06 is when I started really watching Hershey play in earnest. And I still probably only watched 15 games during that reg season and then much of the playoffs including a great series win over the Baby Pens (Deryk Engelland was a real unsung hero for Hershey) and the entire series loss to Hamilton in the Finals (Ryan O'Byrne was a beast for Hamilton and the loss really occurred because our Hershey forwards couldn't get around the big Hamilton defense). That was also the 1st time I saw Matt Hendricks play and really liked him.

So basically I've watched the same # of games that SGM has watched of the Bears. But it took me 4 or 5 yrs to watch what he's watched in 3?? I call major BS on that. He barely talks Hershey hockey. If he'd watched that # of games he would've offered a much greater resume for discussion on our prospects. I think I even remember him stating that he was very unfamiliar with Hershey prospects and welcomed a chance to get some of the Bears fans' opinions on these players. And I'm pretty sure if we go back to the post-playoff threads from this past offseason, he stated that he was getting a chance to finally watch some Hershey games because they were being televised or something.

My guess is, sgm for the first time probably watched a few of the Hershey games this yr from the playoffs AFTER the Caps got eliminated. I'd say his # is closer to 3 games, not 73. And anytime a negative Alzner comment would come out, his defense of Alzner would always be something related to what a coach or article said. Nothing he saw with his own eyes. In fact, not once do I ever recall SGM making a specific eye-witness based comment on the Bears.

the prosecution rests. And is recommending a suspended sentence in return for a full confession.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 2:37 PM | Report abuse

Stats don't tell you everything but they're better than most opinions on this blog

Posted by: jeets |

Exactly

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 2:38 PM | Report abuse

Carlzner is not a very good nickname for the tandem, since Alzner's first name is Karl. I know, it's a "C" and not a "K," but it still sounds like you just compacted Karl Alzner's name. It just sounds like you're talking about one person. AlznerSon might work.

Posted by: robbie1299 | September 20, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

I cannot wait for hockey to start again. I am pretty sure it cost me a girlfriend last season, but whatever...

Until then, let's go Bengals!

Posted by: Aldred15 | September 20, 2010 2:47 PM | Report abuse

Uh, oh.

Another round of "smear the queer" and poor ol' sgm is on the bottom with the football.

Posted by: tominsocal1 | September 20, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton1

The reason I use articles and statistics to support my opinion is that a random screen name saying "I belive player X is good or bad because I saw him" is almost completely irrelevant because it is coming from an unknow source(a screen name, without truly knowing the person or their qualification, who is making the comment is basically an unkown source) with no known qualifications.

Citing statistics, which are fact and can be found anywhere, or an article written by a hockey journalist who has known qualifications in that arena helps provide true support for an opinion.

Otherwise it is just a bunch of random screen names yelling "it is this way because I say it is this way".

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 2:52 PM | Report abuse

Question to SGM----please answer.

You claimed to have watched 73 Bears games right? One can only assume, being such a prolific watcher, that you were then definitely tuned to the Bears this past season, correct? And of course, since they made it to the playoffs and ended up winning the Calder, I'm assuming you watched at least some of their playoffs? Which series did you get to watch? simple question.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:01 PM | Report abuse

@sgm3

you've said that same thing a million times to try to defend yourself. No one cares. Everyone on here is a screenname with or without stats. Its all opinion based, I can manipulate stats anyway I want to as well. Bottom line is I am to lazy to do so. So Ill just voice my opinion and leave it at that. And I am always right and never wrong, just like stats are.

Posted by: ThePat | September 20, 2010 3:03 PM | Report abuse

all good sgm, just please answer my question. Did you watch any of the Hershey playoff games this past season, and which series did you get a chance to watch?

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:04 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1,

You know he is too busy to answer right now, he is on a search engine trying to figure out who they played in the playoffs this year.

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

I propose...

J'calz - (pronounced jackals)
J'c = JC's initials;
alz = first half of Alzer's last name.

and for the line paired with either Sloan/Erskine i propose...

Pamebro = Pass me the broach Oedipus (because my eyes cant take anymore of this horrific sight) - pronounced ughhhhh

Posted by: SeminAllOverTheIce | September 20, 2010 3:08 PM | Report abuse

"AlznerSon" sounds like something from a Kung Fu movie. sgm is back. it has been a quiet couple of days. sigh

Posted by: nimrodrsp | September 20, 2010 3:09 PM | Report abuse

Phil shoots and scores!

actually what he's really trying to do is carefully craft his reply so as not to trip himself up. But I still await a simple answer so I'll ask it again.

sgm--Did you get a chance to watch Hershey this past playoff season and if so, which series did you watch?

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton1

I watched some of each. I didn't get to see all 73 games live in person but I have been able to get some tapes (dvds) of games and watched them.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 3:13 PM | Report abuse

sgm3...do you have any stats to verify that?

Posted by: nimrodrsp | September 20, 2010 3:15 PM | Report abuse

@nimrodrsp

he watched 30% on regular DVD, 10% on VHS, 20% on Beta, 39% on BluRay and 1% in person.

Posted by: ThePat | September 20, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

ok, so now we have an answer. He said he watched some of each. And here ladies and gents, we have finally proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that SGM is a liar.

I had made a critique on Alzner's play during the AHL playoffs and SGM took a quote by Mark French where he used it to defend Alzner. And he used words like "it appears that Alzner was the one, not Carlson, who was shutting down Jamie Benn".
Listed here--

"Quite complimentary of Alzner. It appears he was the one, not Carlson, who was shutting down Benn."

Posted by: sgm3 | June 16, 2010 12:12 PM


So my response to SGM was:

"spoken by someone who apparently didn't watch the whole series. It was Carlson who was laying heavy hits on Benn who in his own right is a very physical player and he wore him down"

and his RESPONSE was (drum roll please!)

@cstanton1
You may have watched more of the series than me because I was not able to watch any of it.
But I am pretty sure Mark French watched more of the series and had a better idea of what was going on than you did. (such as whose job it was to guard Benn since it was French who was getting paid to assign those roles)
Posted by: sgm3 | June 16, 2010 12:41 PM

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:19 PM | Report abuse

so...it "appears"...that somehow SGM forgot that the one series he may not have watched any of was the AHL Calder Cup Finals. Sounds like an honest lapse of memory to me.

ahh..pass me a cigar please.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:22 PM | Report abuse

Uh, oh.

Another round of "smear the queer" and poor ol' sgm is on the bottom with the football.

Posted by: tominsocal1

game over. He's not allowed to carry the football anymore.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1: "it echoed what I've said in the past"

you don't need any other quotes to echo what you've said in the past - you're the best at echoing yourself :D - jk

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

@robbie1224

Given the desire of posters on this thread for a meaner defense, I think the name should be "Snarlz-ner".

D is a problem on this team - we're sloooow. At least Shay-moe's gone....

Posted by: RedLitYogi | September 20, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1: "it echoed what I've said in the past"

you don't need any other quotes to echo what you've said in the past - you're the best at echoing yourself :D - jk

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 3:27 PM | Report abuse

ain't that the truth. I didn't realize how much I posted until I had to sift thru hundreds of my own posts to find what I was lookin for. I have really polluted this blog. I'm officially hated by every WaPo database admin and search indexer

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:30 PM | Report abuse

cstanton...I am sure that sgm has the stats to prove that.

Posted by: nimrodrsp | September 20, 2010 3:40 PM | Report abuse

cstanton: Not only that, but you are listed in the US database as the country's largest user of electrons.

BTW, the dept of agriculture now says that electrons are endangered and we are advised to cut back. Just remember: The electron you save today will be there for your grandchildren in the future!

(BTW, do you have grandchildren, cstanton? I don't.)

Posted by: tominsocal1 | September 20, 2010 3:44 PM | Report abuse

CI Poll:

Which FA signing is a bigger bust for Washington Sports?

GMGM - signing of Nylander with NTC

or

Redskins - signing of Albert Haynesworth

Posted by: SeminAllOverTheIce | September 20, 2010 3:45 PM | Report abuse

Jeez. A few comments about the article would be good. Thanks for writing this, Neil! You obviously put a lot of thought and effort into it.

For anyone who hasn't read the articles over on Puck Prospectus on how DGVT is calculated, what it says, and what it means, go look. It's interesting stuff. I'm not a number-cruncher, and have often said, "lies, damn lies, and statistics" when saying so-and-so looked good on the ice tonight, but it is interesting stuff.

Posted by: irockthered | September 20, 2010 3:46 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1,

I was sifting through posts from that time frame as well trying to catch him in his own lie but you already know what his reply will be......"I got the games on DVD after the playoffs were over and watched them at my convenience through the summer."

Watch, and 3, 2, 1....

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

tominsocal1:
if i recall correctly (and my memory isn't what it used to be) cstanton1 is only 38 - so unless he had an ankle biter at 19ish and they also had one around the same age - i'm going to guess it is no.

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 3:52 PM | Report abuse

......"I got the games on DVD after the playoffs were over and watched them at my convenience through the summer."

Watch, and 3, 2, 1....

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 3:50 PM | Report abuse

aaargh! the old "i watched em later on DVD" defense!

you phil are a great defense attorney. I coulda used you back in the day. Back before i did a dime in chino for excessive electron usage.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:53 PM | Report abuse

@IRTR

I was for them doing the blog from a fans view. But to be honest when they chose Neil, I thought it was a bad decision. And thats not a knock on Neil, what he has done is very good. He just already writes for one of the Caps blogs that I'd say people already view. So we kind of already know how he feels about things. He's done good work with this entry and the stuff at RMNB, but like i said I'd like a different view point.

Posted by: ThePat | September 20, 2010 3:55 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1 is only 38 - so unless he had an ankle biter at 19ish and they also had one around the same age - i'm going to guess it is no.
----------------

i do have a kid though. His name is SGM and he drives me nuts with his stats. I'm lookin to put him up for adoption. Any takers? He gives a great footrub. At least according to a certain section on Craigslist before they took it down.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 3:56 PM | Report abuse

WTF is all this statistical analysis and graphing? I just want to know what the score of the scrimmage was today. Jeez.

Posted by: madflava | September 20, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

I was sifting through posts from that time frame as well trying to catch him in his own lie but you already know what his reply will be......"I got the games on DVD after the playoffs were over and watched them at my convenience through the summer."

Watch, and 3, 2, 1....

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 3:50 PM

but how much can you really retain by watching 73 games in one afternoon using FastForward?

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton and cabal

I don't know what sgm3 did to you personally--run over your dog or fail to genuflect to your awesome hockey know-it-all-ness.

Leave the guy alone already. He has a right to his opinions as much as you do with yours.

If everyone agreed the blog would be a pretty dull place, but let's keep the argument on the hockey analysis. The number of times he has seen the Hershey guys play is irrelevant. We all have access to the same sources and videos and interviews and statistics, and we can judge for ourselves whether someone's opinion is fair or accurate.

Deal with his analysis, not whether he saw the guy play in x number of games.

You are top quick to make it personal. You can be such a a cyberbully and are a real bore sometimes. If you disagree with his take on Pinner then dissent with his argument.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 3:58 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1,

You are really on a roll today, usually Tominsocal is the only one that can have me laughing out loud at my desk so that my co-workers are looking at me like I'm nuts. Until tomorrow, have a good one all.

Posted by: PhilR | September 20, 2010 4:01 PM | Report abuse

holy smoley, anyone see this? non hockey related and maybe i've been under a rock or still slightly drunk from my 2 beers watching the Skinz play yesterday. But wt f is this all about?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/18/AR2010091803935.html

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:02 PM | Report abuse

You are top quick to make it personal. You can be such a a cyberbully and are a real bore sometimes. If you disagree with his take on Pinner then dissent with his argument.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns

why do you jump into something without having any knowledge of it ? SGM made some claims, we're holding him to it. Its got nothing to do with differing opinions on a player.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:05 PM | Report abuse

Would love to see this metric applied to the duo of Martin and Michalek in Pitt. Just off gut feel and without any major statistical analysis, I don't see those two guys' "DGVT" being worthy of $9Million per. I'm not critical of those players, but I am critical of their salaries, and as a Caps fan I am delighted that over the next many seasons the Penguins will have $9Mil less to address their offensive needs.

Posted by: struggler | September 20, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

RMNB sent me. Congrats and thanks for the insight above and beyond the traditional newsroom.

Posted by: rhollebon | September 20, 2010 4:10 PM | Report abuse

Deal with his analysis, not whether he saw the guy play in x number of games.

-------------

i'd love to deal with his analysis. But suddenly claiming to have watched a ton of Hershey games when previous to that he was completely ignorant of our prospects raised the ire of some folks today. And i think we caught him in his lies today. Hence his silence. But its got nada to do with how he feels about Pinner vs how I feel. Considering he's probably never even watched him play. I think Pinner was a healthy scratch in 73 specific games over the past 3 yrs.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:11 PM | Report abuse

Man, Insider has really gone down hill since Tarik left...

Posted by: madflava | September 20, 2010 4:16 PM | Report abuse

it appears that Ketie spends more time on Twitter

Posted by: doughless | September 20, 2010 4:21 PM | Report abuse

"Deal with his analysis, not whether he saw the guy play in x number of games"


Doesnt he need to have seen them play to provide analysis??? Just curious.

Posted by: ThePat | September 20, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

@Neil Greenberg

This feature is s a great idea. Stats are the bread and butter for sports and hockey stats can be particulary complex. Thanks for explaining your analysis so clearly..

Our eyes told us that Green was not a defensive liability and was actually quite good and that Keith was indeed a defensive stud (except when Nicky shoots one through his legs into the net), and your statistical analysis help clarify to what extent Keith is better than Green as well as how much to expect from our young guys Carlzner.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 4:23 PM | Report abuse

Like I said, I did not watch all of the games live. I was able to watch many of them on tape(dvd). I did not fast forward through any play.

@cstanton1, you do realize that you saying you watched "x" number of games has as much support as me saying I watched 73.

We are both just two random screen names saying that watched a certain number of games. All the information you write that is supported by your "watching" of the games can easily be obtained from other sources. You could then turn around and pawn it off as you're own and then attempt to attribute that "knowledge" as "evidence" that you watched.

No one on here has any idea because there is no proof of any of it and there is no way to judge the credibility of a screen name since no one on here knows anyone else.

Hence the need for articles and statistics to support opinions offered on blogs.

Without it you just have random screen names shouting out that they are right because they watched a certain amount of games and that is what they saw. Even though there is no way to check the credibility or qualifications of the source.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 4:28 PM | Report abuse


Doesnt he need to have seen them play to provide analysis??? Just curious.

Posted by: ThePat | September 20, 2010 4:22 PM | Report abuse

certainly if he claims to have watched them anyway.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:30 PM | Report abuse

Like I said, I did not watch all of the games live. I was able to watch many of them on tape(dvd). I did not fast forward through any play.
---sgm--

its pretty cut and dry actually. You just said you watched some of EACH of the Bears playoff series this season. And I pulled up your comment from 2 days after the Bears won the Cup, and your comment back then was you didn't get a chance to watch any of it.

So which is it? Did you watch it AFTER the fact instead of watching it live? Thx to Phil for giving you a possible out there...


really, this just speaks to your credibility. You have never chimed in on any Hershey player with your own opinion. Not the way you chime in with your specific observations about guys who play on the Caps (i.e Semin). Now suddenly today you claim you've seen 73 Bears games over 3 yrs. yah right!

You couldn't even offer your opinion on Alzner as a Bear back in June. You deferred that to Mark French. So why wouldn't you offer your own observations up on Alzner if you've watched so many Bears games?

i mean by all means, go ahead and give out some of your observations on Hershey prospects. I'd love to hear them.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:38 PM | Report abuse

How many times sqm3 watched is a red herring. Not all people see the same thing when they watch. And everyone has different takes on how a guy plays on each shift.

I realize several of you take issue with sqm3's points--he has a different interpretation of what the team needs than some of you. Doesn't make him wrong, nor does it make him right, just different. Fact is he cares enough to watch Hershey games as have I and many of you. So he has seen Pinner play as well as has read what the coaches etc have said about him. Enough for him to have formed an opinion about Pinner and the likelihood of him getting onto the roster.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 4:40 PM | Report abuse

All the information you write that is supported by your "watching" of the games can easily be obtained from other sources. You could then turn around and pawn it off as you're own and then attempt to attribute that "knowledge" as "evidence" that you watched.

No one on here has any idea because there is no proof of any of it and there is no way to judge the credibility of a screen name since no one on here knows anyone else.

Hence the need for articles and statistics to support opinions offered on blogs.
-------------

again, you're masking the truth. When you offer up opinions on Semin for example, you make very clear statements. You saw him do this, you saw him do that, etc. I mean, you're still wrapped up in stats upto your eyeballs but the few observations you make are clearly rooted in something 1st-hand.

But when there's a discussion about Hershey players, you either don't say anything or you will offer up something based on how the Hershey coach feels about the guy. Like you did with Alzner and the Jamie Benn example. You said "it APPEARS that it was Alzner and not Carlson who shut Benn down". And then when I called you on it, you said you hadn't watched any of the series but you trust Mark French's support of Alzner. And today you said you watched some of the series.

you can't dodge bullets when there's no cover.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:45 PM | Report abuse

How many times sqm3 watched is a red herring. Not all people see the same thing when they watch. And everyone has different takes on how a guy plays on each shift.

-------------------------

A RED HERRING? what are you even talking about? you obviously don't even know what this debate is about. No one cares how many times SGM watches something. He's being called out for CLAIMING to have watched certain things when he clearly hasn't. That's it, end of story.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:50 PM | Report abuse

@thePat

I would hope everyone here spouting off watch hockey, read about hockey, and keep track of the stats when they form their opinions. One's eyes can lie and stats not in context can be misleading and experts can be biased.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 4:51 PM | Report abuse

Fact is he cares enough to watch Hershey games as have I and many of you.
----------------------------------

that's no "fact"

he doesn't watch Hershey games. And if he has, its certainly nowhere near the amount he claims to have. Now do you get what this is about?

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:53 PM | Report abuse

we get it, guys. you're all a bunch of very smart drama queens. enjoy your pissing contest.

Posted by: LA_caps_fan | September 20, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

One's eyes can lie --


so what you're saying is, when sgm said he watched 73 specific games over the past 3 seasons, he really only watched 3 games but his eyes lied to him.

since we're not going to get a full confession out our little buddy today, i will accept this and enter it into record.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:56 PM | Report abuse

we get it, guys. you're all a bunch of very smart drama queens. enjoy your pissing contest.

Posted by: LA_caps_fan

and liars, don't forget liars.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 4:58 PM | Report abuse

"But when there's a discussion about Hershey players, you either don't say anything or you will offer up something based on how the Hershey coach feels about the guy. Like you did with Alzner and the Jamie Benn example. You said "it APPEARS that it was Alzner and not Carlson who shut Benn down". And then when I called you on it, you said you hadn't watched any of the series but you trust Mark French's support of Alzner. And today you said you watched some of the series."

I watched a few games of that series after I made those comments. Like I said I did not watch all the games live. I was able to watch them when I had some free time and was bored. There are other things I do in my life.

Also, @cstanton1 when I wrote

"All the information you write that is supported by your "watching" of the games can easily be obtained from other sources. You could then turn around and pawn it off as you're own and then attempt to attribute that "knowledge" as "evidence" that you watched.

No one on here has any idea because there is no proof of any of it and there is no way to judge the credibility of a screen name since no one on here knows anyone else.

Hence the need for articles and statistics to support opinions offered on blogs."

That isn't called masking the truth. It is pointing out that the your points you make based on you "watching" the games have no more, and no less, credibility than any other screen name on here supporting their argument in the same fashion.

Statements made like that, in this sort of medium, have little to no credibility because of the inability to know a commentor's qualifications and the inabiilty to know if the commentor is making truthful statements.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 5:01 PM | Report abuse

Red Herring? Didn't he used to be a defenseman on the old Skipjacks?

-----------
No one on here has any idea because there is no proof of any of it and there is no way to judge the credibility of a screen name since no one on here knows anyone else.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 4:28 PM
----------------

Not true. I knew all of you before you even existed.

nostrathomas

Posted by: tominsocal1 | September 20, 2010 5:02 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton

Ahh so he did run over your dog. Honestly I've read this thread today and that's all I need to know of this silly argument.

Who cares how many games he watched or claimed to watch or will ever watch.

Besides I've slogged through too many of these these threads wishing I could just z right through your posts when you are on your "attack sqm3" mode. He can be annoying and pedantic too but you are the one who makes personal insults.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 5:03 PM | Report abuse

That isn't called masking the truth. It is pointing out that the your points you make based on you "watching" the games have no more, and no less, credibility than any other screen name on here supporting their argument in the same fashion.

Statements made like that, in this sort of medium, have little to no credibility because of the inability to know a commentor's qualifications and the inabiilty to know if the commentor is making truthful statements.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 5:01 PM

how come no one's calling me out then? i'm pretty sure that inspite of coming off on this blog like a major a*hole at times, my credibility is less in doubt than yours is with regards to my claims and observations. You're trying to question my credibility now to deflect some of the attn off yourself. Weak mccarthyistic move.

also, you offer no details or specific observations when you talk about Hershey for example. That's how we know you're blowing smoke when out of the blue you claim to have watched "30%" of their games.

i mean go ahead, break it down and prove me wrong. Offer up your own observations from 73 games worth of Hershey hockey. We'd all like to hear it. I've spent a good amount of time over the past few yrs discussing players from Hershey. Before Pinizotto was even a Bear, back when we first signed him, he hit my radar because he fit the type of player I thought this org was lacking. The first guy we signed in the vein was Matt Stefanishion. Once he fell by the wayside, Pinner ended up filling that role. So I followed him. In SC, then with the Bears. This is before he got any press anywhere. So feel free to question me all you want. I can be as specific as you'd like from the games I've watched over the yrs. From SC to Hershey to the Caps to games in the WHL etc. I remember watching Dovgan and Pokulok play in SC and reporting on that as the game was going on.

i'll put my 2 cents against yours anytime anywhere.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 5:10 PM | Report abuse

Who cares how many games he watched or claimed to watch or will ever watch.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns

obviously a few of us do. Always important to catch someone in an outright lie especially when they feel like debating you on hockey particulars.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 5:13 PM | Report abuse

I would hope everyone here spouting off watch hockey, read about hockey, and keep track of the stats when they form their opinions. One's eyes can lie and stats not in context can be misleading and experts can be biased.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns

I agree.


"how come no one's calling me out then?"

@cstanton1

The point is that no one can know either way if you attended or not. So they can't call you out because they can't prove you didn't watch the games, but likewise you can't prove you did watch the games. Hence the inability to know if a person's comments are truthful and the inability to know a person's qualification.

I proved I watched the games because I told you and I know I watched them. It's as much proof as you have offered. If you choose not to believe me, then do so.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 5:24 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1: "i'm pretty sure that inspite of coming off on this blog like a major a*hole at times"

only when you go on and on about gmgm - sorry but your lobbing softballs today. :D

i do however enjoy your insight on the players and games

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 5:38 PM | Report abuse

Here's a noncontroversial post... I've lived in Los Angeles for eight years and haven't missed a Caps game thanks to the beautiful inventions of DVR and NHL Center Ice. I WOULD watch all the Bears games too if I could, but I've only been able to see the limited Calder Cup coverage. Can you people tell me HOW you are able to watch so many Bears games? Are they available online or do you just happen to live in Hershey country?

Posted by: struggler | September 20, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

I can't wait until posts are about how OV, Backis, Neuvy, or some other Cap really helped the team win a game. Summer posts are getting old.

Posted by: JIMALLCAPS1 | September 20, 2010 5:53 PM | Report abuse

JIMALLCAPS1:
i guess than means you CAN wait for posts on how schultz, flash, gordon, sloan, erskine, chimera, steckel etc. - helped lose a game.

Posted by: Capt_Kirk_in_AZ | September 20, 2010 5:58 PM | Report abuse

I live in southeast va and go watch Hershey play the admirals a couple times a year. Both Carlson and Alzner look like men among boys out there.

Posted by: Dizruption | September 20, 2010 6:03 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton1:

Whatever.

As another poster once eloquently expressed: it seems that--given the tone of many (though not all) of your comments--you would rather be proven right than see the Caps win.

Sad, really. More so is that anyone who dares to actually disagree with you (gasp!) eventually gets berated for being:

1) Ignorant.
2) Insane
3) A Homer.
4) A Kool-Aid drinker.
5) Lacking in hockey knowledge.
6) Lacking in analytical skills and relying on statistics of any kind to refute your views.
7) Any or all of the above.

So I must ask again as I have asked before:

Based on the tone of your comments, you don't seem to like the Caps very much at all, so why are you here?

FTR, I am concerned about the "holes" that are discussed on this blog. I am concerned about the lack of positive roster moves in the off-season. I am deeply, bitterly disappointed about the Caps' failure in the playoffs. That said, I categorically refuse to throw this organization under the bus.

Based on your dismissal of EVERY positive aspect of last season, I suspect that you will never be content until the following comes to pass:


1) cstanton1 is named Commissioner-For-Life of the NHL, with absolute power in all areas of NHL operations.

2) GMGM, BB, and TL are instantly banned from having anything to do with hockey. At any level. Ever again.

3) Ditto #28, #14, and any other player cstanton1 views as having insufficient "grit".

4) The NHL regular season--since it has been pronounced "meaningless" by the all-knowing cstanton1--is abolished/cancelled/done away with/whatever you want to call it.

5) All regular-season awards (including both the President's Trophy and all of the individual trophies like the Norris, Vezina, Hart, etc.) are also meaningless and therefore likewise abolished.

6) Whether a team even makes the playoffs will be determined not by their regular season records (since the regular season would no longer exist), but by whether cstanton1 pronounces that team worthy based solely on cstanton1's perception of how much "grit" that team has...oh, wait: that might be a statistic too, and therefore totally meaningless!

7) Ditto for playoff seeding: totally subject to the whims of cstanton1. BTW, what would we call the playoffs anyway, if the regular season no longer exists?

8) Thus, by cstanton1's decree, the only top-level pro hockey played in North America would be the Stanley Cup Playoffs themselves: between 60 and 105 total games League-wide, played March through June of each year.

I bet that'll go over just great with those who feel totally bummed during the off-season, especially since the off-season would now end up being NINE F@%#&*^!! MONTHS LONG!!!!.

And just imagine the ticket prices with an absolute maximum of 16 home games per "season"!


Cheers!

Posted by: Rhino40 | September 20, 2010 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Too many snipers and not enough tanks; too many fighters and not enough bombers; too many fast frigates and not enough battleships. Too many prima donnas and not enough character actors.

Posted by: tominsocal1 | September 19, 2010 12:02 AM


Too many TIE Fighters and not enough Imperial Walkers

Too many WhiteStars and not enough Sharlin-Class War Cruisers

Posted by: Rhino40 | September 20, 2010 6:06 PM | Report abuse

Can you people tell me HOW you are able to watch so many Bears games? Are they available online or do you just happen to live in Hershey country?

Posted by: struggler | September 20, 2010 5:39 PM | Report abuse

i can't speak for anyone else but i usually cruize over to SGM's pad and we sit around watching games together. He gets exactly 30% of all games being broadcast.

the other way to do it via long distance is thru B2 Networks or whatever the AHL is currently using. If you go to the AHL website they'll have info on it. Its good quality too but you generally need a T1 line (like at work) or you need a cable modem. When I watched via DSL it didn't seem to work as well. Of course with a cable modem the performance will be sporadic depending on time of day etc.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:07 PM | Report abuse

@cstanton1

The point is that no one can know either way if you attended or not. So they can't call you out because they can't prove you didn't watch the games, but likewise you can't prove you did watch the games. Hence the inability to know if a person's comments are truthful and the inability to know a person's qualification.

---------

you just need a decent BS meter. And mine's been redlining on you all day.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:09 PM | Report abuse

rhino you gotta trim your post down. It looks like an attack but break it down for me in more concise terms. It frankly looks like one of my posts.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:10 PM | Report abuse

That said, I categorically refuse to throw this organization under the bus
-----------

explain to me again why that is something to strive for? i mean i get the basic msg of being a loyal fan blah blah blah. But if you generally disagree with the direction of the org, whats wrong with throwing em under the bus and pray for a change?

if you didn't like the president, would you still abandon the country?

i think you wasted a lotta breath on a very flimsy position.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:15 PM | Report abuse

"u just need a decent BS meter. And mine's been redlining on you all day."

Yours has been at that level since you learned how to post.

See, it is so easy to throw around statements like that in this sort of medium. Again, with no support to speak of except that you feel that way.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 6:16 PM | Report abuse

@sgm
@cstanton

Both of you get five for fighting.

BTW, does your work know how much time you spend online each day?

Posted by: Dizruption | September 20, 2010 6:21 PM | Report abuse

@struggler: I live a bit closer to DC than Hershey, but manage to make it up to Hershey at least once a month, usually twice, to see a game live. If you want to watch the games online, you can hit ahllive.com and see them from there - I think that's the URL (AHL Live). Just Google it. There's a small fee, but it isn't hideous.

@everyone else: How about some comments that actually - I dunno - relate to Neil's article, rather than sniping back and forth like a pack of kindergarteners? Y'all are really dissing a friend of mine here by ignoring his work like that, and I, for one, don't appreciate it.

Either comment on the article, or take it offline, 'cause I'm sick of reading about it, and that goes for everyone involved in this little battle.

@Neil: I will repeat - good information; thank you for the article. I'm looking forward to reading more about the stat so I understand it better. :)

Posted by: irockthered | September 20, 2010 6:24 PM | Report abuse

ok, i'm piecing thru more of your rant now.
---------
Sad, really. More so is that anyone who dares to actually disagree with you (gasp!) eventually gets berated for being:

1) Ignorant.
2) Insane
3) A Homer.
4) A Kool-Aid drinker.
5) Lacking in hockey knowledge.
6) Lacking in analytical skills and relying on statistics of any kind to refute your views.
7) Any or all of the above.
-----------

that's partly an inaccurate perception. I've never ever mentioned anything about the koolaiders. I leave that to the other dissenters. The other stuff? sure, I've probably implied or directly stated all those things. And frankly, it was justified in the context it was used. That's my very humble self-analysis.

when someone comes at this with a stupid or silly argument, what the hell. If its silly or stupid, I can't control that. You know how our English teachers used to say that you can interpret a poem anyway you like? well, i never bought into that. Some interpretations are silly, stupid, and wrong. If everything was open to anyone's perception, what's the point of even debating? Just accept that everyone else's opinions are always correct and move on, no debate req'd.

But no one here plays it that way. If I made a statement that I thought Schultz was the worst dman who ever played hockey, a lot of you would think that to be an extremely stupid position and you'd verbalize it. And you would be right. So I also find many things to be very stupid. And I too verbalize it. But I hold off on directly insulting another poster unless there's some major history involved or I get attacked first. I could be wrong but that's how I see it.

And I don't categorically insult anyone who disagrees with me. I guess the tone of the debate usually influences my tone and response.


and while i don't discount statistics, i do discount opinions which i feel overly rely on statistics. I won't name names. Single Gay Male.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:27 PM | Report abuse

Yeah, Capt Kirk, I can wait on those, lol

I still see the Caps winning a lot more than they lose in the regular season, and yes, I want to see a new blueliner and a revamped pk to see more playoff wins than loses

Posted by: JIMALLCAPS1 | September 20, 2010 6:32 PM | Report abuse

@everyone else: How about some comments that actually - I dunno - relate to Neil's article, rather than sniping back and forth like a pack of kindergarteners?

---------

i didn't think much of it to be honest. Appreciate the work that goes into it but statistical graphs like this aren't used by teams to figure out who they pursue via trades or FA or drafts. That's why they send scouts. If you could get a very accurate eval of a player via a mathematical equation, then you'd never need to have a scouting staff would you? And which is why so many high scoring forwards in the juniors and minor leagues never make it to the nhl or even get a real serious look. Because there's a lot more that goes into evaluating a player than a GVDTGADDADAVIDA equation. You have statistics...and then you have statistics based on other statistics. Its a little nutty.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:36 PM | Report abuse

@robbie1299

I've heard our friends at Japers refer to them as Karlznerson. (Correct me if I'm wrong, anyone.)

Posted by: CapsFan75 | September 20, 2010 6:37 PM | Report abuse

BTW, does your work know how much time you spend online each day?

Posted by: Dizruption

I spent way too much time. Absolutely. I posted too much, but I'm pretty sure my number of post were significantly lower than at least one other on here today.

Also, I find it hilarious when cstanton gets all riled up.

Posted by: sgm3 | September 20, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

last time two young kids came thru with this much hype was Seabrook and Keith. Before that, Jovocop and Warrener for the Cats. And those 2 were incredibly impressive rookies.

Posted by: cstanton1 | September 20, 2010 6:44 PM | Report abuse

Excellent article, Neil. (And I read your stuff on "Russian Machine" as well.)

Posted by: CapsFan75 | September 20, 2010 6:45 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the info on access to Bears games. I'll hook it up pending the cost/benefit analysis, which will be more of a gut feel sorta thing and less of a straight-up statistical approach.

I've only managed to skim the battle going on here, and I can't tell if it's just between two people or if more are involved. But I sense that the root of the discussion is the direction of the team. My two cents: Having followed the Caps for just over 20 years, I have thoroughly enjoyed the extremely entertaining brand of hockey they have played the last few seasons. I thought BB made some glaring mistakes in the playoffs last year, and those mistakes may or may not have cost us the series v. Montreal. I was furious with the coaching. That said, if Halak did not exist, we very well might have hoisted the Cup, even with the coaching mistakes and the substandard defensive play. Chicago played quite a bit of run-and-gun hockey in the finals and throughout the playoffs, so these days there is a little bit more leeway for run-and-gun teams to actually succeed. Weighing my total enjoyment of watching Caps regular season hockey the last few years against my strong desire to see them win the Cup, my desire is to give BB one more season. I want one more season of highly entertaining hockey and I'll cross my fingers that it's enough to do the job this spring. If not, and especially if BB makes more glaring mistakes in the playoffs, I would like to see a coaching and systems change next year. I don't think it is all-or-nothing this year. I think we'll have the same core of players next year, most of whom will be more experienced and generally "better." Putting those guys into a more responsible system "should" do the trick.

Posted by: struggler | September 20, 2010 6:49 PM | Report abuse

Red Herring, the former player for the Baltimore Skipjacks.

And didn't he have red hair, of course?

(Originally, I thought Red Herring was an investigative detective whose real name was Thomas.)

Posted by: CapsFan75 | September 20, 2010 6:49 PM | Report abuse

@irockthered

Great post and I agree with you. I thought this was a great post. The statistical aspect of hockey is crucial to evaluating the players, systems, and teams. It is a great way to gauge the effectiveness or ineffectiveness of a player. I think too many discount stats and rely on their eyes whereas both are crucial for a more complete picture, especially of a player.

@Neil

Great piece. I love RMNB--I stop by often. I stop by CI for the articles such as yours though I don't usually bother to blog much. Today I only scrolled down initially to tell you how interesting I found your analysis. Thanks again and I will be stopping by for future installments.

Posted by: Capsyoungguns | September 20, 2010 8:27 PM | Report abuse

The comment section on here has officially become a complete waste of time. Thanks Cstanton.

Posted by: capsfansince74 | September 20, 2010 9:03 PM | Report abuse

I've only managed to skim the battle going on here, and I can't tell if it's just between two people or if more are involved. But I sense that the root of the discussion is the direction of the team.

Posted by: struggler | September 20, 2010 6:49 PM

No, it's because two different people both absolutely insist on having the last word.

Posted by: tominsocal1 | September 20, 2010 9:22 PM | Report abuse

cstanton1 and sgm3:

The horse is dead. As a matter of fact, there's little of it left other than a greasy smear of entrails. You can put away your clubs and go home.

The way you two carry on, one might be inclined to think you two were married to each other. ;)

All kidding aside, give it a rest. Stop clogging up what is meant to be a forum for readers to post their thoughts concerning the articles and the Caps in general.

It's not intended to be a place for folks to lord their presumed hockey knowledge superiority over each other.

Posted by: Hordedog | September 21, 2010 3:00 AM | Report abuse

Good god, what has happen to this blog. All this bickering over a blog post. Maybe statistical analysis belongs on a different site. Apparently, people here don't seem to care for it.

Posted by: madflava | September 21, 2010 10:24 AM | Report abuse

Stats don't lie. People do.

Posted by: Rocc00 | September 21, 2010 11:30 AM | Report abuse

& people who disregard stats, are afraid of math.

Posted by: Rocc00 | September 21, 2010 11:43 AM | Report abuse

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