* Our Full Forecast | Weather Wall | Nationals Journal *

Phillies at Nationals
Saturday July 31, 7:05 p.m., Nationals Stadium

First Pitch	9th Inning	Weather	Chance of Rain
Low 80s	Upper 70s	Partly cloudy	15%

I'm expecting a pleasant evening at the Park. I can't totally rule out a thunderstorm, but any activity should hold off until after the game or later. Temps will be within a few degrees of 80 for the better part of the game.

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Weekend half good and half iffy

* Weather with attitude? | Record snow not due to global warming *
* Outside now? Radar, lightning, temps & more: Weather Wall *

After all the heat we've gone through recently, I think we deserve more days like this one. Just a few clouds are floating by in an otherwise blue sky. High temperatures generally in the mid-80s are actually a few degrees below average in most spots, and humidity levels are delightful. This time yesterday we were still sitting in low 70s dew points. Today they have fallen about 20 degrees -- enough to not even think about a "stickiness factor" (unless reading this).

Through Tonight: Awesome! This is almost like an early-fall preview here as evening readings drop into and through the 70s near sunset. Overnight lows range from near 60 in the coolest spots to around 70 in the warmest. If National Airport dips into the 60s, which is certainly possible, it will be the first time since the last meaningful cool down at the end of June and beginning of July.

Tomorrow (Saturday): Get your favorite outdoor weekend activities in tomorrow if you can since Sunday looks a bit iffy. Overall, it should be fairly similar to today but perhaps a touch warmer and with more clouds infiltrating the area late. Mostly-or-partly sunny skies during a good chunk of the day should promote highs rising to the mid-and-upper 80s. Thicker clouds and any rain shot should hold off till after sunset or during the overnight.

See Camden Walker's forecast through next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Record watch: As of yesterday, D.C.'s July temperature average was 83.4. The monthly record target is 83.1 (1993). We're still in the running for the July record, but today's high temperatures are lagging a bit, so #2 (83.0) or #3 (>82.6) appear more likely when factoring in tomorrow's expected temperatures. Either way, the June-July period will end up the warmest on record in D.C. and we are looking at the need for August to be cooler than normal to keep us from breaking the summmer (June-Aug) heat record set back in 1980. Our last cooler than normal month was February 2010.

* Sweet today, semi-sweet tomorrow: Full Forecast | NatCast *

Our weather gang here was subject to a bit of criticism recently.

First, there were these two letters to the editor, published with the headline, "Too much opinion on the weather page." These were in response to Capital Weather Gang forecast information that appeared in the July 10 print edition weather page (back page of Metro section). Here's a sampling from one:

I realize that some weather is more conducive to good times than other, but it is a matter of opinion and attitude to state that the weather is "uncomfortable" and "cooler but not cool" and "sticky and not a truly pleasant day" ... I could see that it was damp and raining and would be humid, but there was no need for a litany of gloom and pessimism. ... A better take might be to report the facts, and, if there is room for personal commentary, perhaps something hopeful, such as mentioning that this is some much-needed rain and maybe we can stop running outside to check the tomato plants for a day or two.

And the other:

The July 10 forecast was ridiculous. We had lovely cool temperatures and much-needed rain, and the Weather Gang's forecast still managed to put a negative spin on it, calling it "still uncomfortable" and "not a truly pleasant day. Pretty sticky, instead. ... Can you just report the weather here, Weather Gang?

And that's not all...

* Record snow not due to global warming | A colorful D.C. sunset *
* Outside now? Clouds, webcam & more: Weather Wall | NatCast *

Today's Daily Digit

 

A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Your
Call?

Let's celebrate temperatures below 90! Lower humidity! Wow it's been a while since I've given a 7.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Sunny & splendid. Upper 80s. | Tonight: A few clouds. 60-65. | Tomorrow: Partly sunny. 20% chance of late-day t'storm. Upper 80s. | Sunday: Partly sunny. Possible p.m. showers/storms (50-60% chance). Lower 80s. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

These seasonable, average high temperatures in the upper 80s the next couple days? They will feel downright awesome. I am extremely excited, I bet you are too. We have slowly increasing chances of showers on Saturday evening into Sunday evening, and probably Monday too. By the middle of next week, we could be back into our hot regime. So enjoy it while you can!

Today (Friday): Just splendid & stellar! Upper 80s for afternoon high temperatures will likely feel refreshing to our 100-degree-hardened bodies. Boy have we acclimated. Light north winds behind last evening's cold front will continue to feed in dryer air. Enjoy this lower humidity! But also note UV will be high today underneath a clear blue sky. Lather on that sunscreen or sunblock before enjoying direct, midday sunlight! Confidence: High

Tonight: Lows could drop into the low-to-mid-60s downtown! A few clouds may insulate the normally warmer downtown areas, keeping us in the mid-to-upper 60s. But outside the Beltway will bottom near 60! Who will open their windows? I will consider it! Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast into next week. The heat's gotta return, right?

* Our Full Forecast | Weather Wall | Nationals Journal *

Phillies at Nationals
Friday July 30, 7:05 p.m., Nationals Stadium

First Pitch	9th Inning	Weather	Chance of Rain
Low 80s	Mid-70s	Dry & comfortable	0%

Dress for comfortable summer weather & enjoy! No chance of storms. Nearly perfect evening.

NatCast appears on the day of every Nationals home game. Also, if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Pretty nice Fri and Sat; Rain threat after?

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch canceled *
* Record snow not due to global warming | A colorful D.C. sunset *
* Outside now? Radar, lightning, temps & more: Weather Wall *

Temperatures that quickly rose into the low-and-mid 90s have been knocked back by our afternoon showers and storms. The first set of storms are now slowly moving off to the south and east, but not before dropping more than 1" of rain in spots and producing some wind damage across the area. And yes, unfortunately, a few who lost power Sunday have found themselves without power once again. New outages affecting several thousand people and businesses have been reported, including at Friendship Heights Metro Station.

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Through Tonight: Though the severe threat is past, we'll run the risk of an additional shower or storm into early evening as the cold front slips through. After that, skies go mostly clear and humidity levels begin to fall. Lows reach the mid-60s in the suburbs to around 70 downtown.

Tomorrow (Friday): Friday's looking like a winner all around. Plenty of sunshine and temperatures near or maybe even below average during the day combine with lower humidity to create the perfect day to call in sick from work. Look for afternoon highs in the mid-or-upper 80s.

See David Streit's forecast through next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Heavy rain and isolated damaging wind main threats

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7 p.m. *
* Friendship Heights Metro Station closed due to power outage *
* What about after the storms? See our full forecast *

2:50 p.m. update: Slow-moving storms with lots of lightning and heavy rain continue to impact mainly D.C. and to the south/southwest. Radar is indicating that over 1" of rain has fallen in some of these locations. Some reports of wind damage are trickling in, mainly in Montgomery County where trees and wires have been downed in places like Rockville. New power outages have been reported in parts of the area impacted by Sunday's storms, including at Friendship Heights Metro station. Rain has hit the National's game and a delay is in progress. These storms will continue to slowly shift south and east.

2:15 p.m. update: Storms, some strong, continue to pass through the central part of the area. There have been no new thunderstorm warnings recently and the main threat appears to be heavy rain and lightning with the activity presently moving through, but there is still potential for isolated severe weather. The cold front remains to our north, now passing through northern Maryland, and it is possible that additional (probably more isolated) activity could pop up during the remainder of the afternoon, particularly in places that see sunshine return quickly.

From the Storm Prediction Center:

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

Severe Weather Tracking Station
Warning Text: DC | MD | VA * NWS Local Storm Reports

Radar & Lightning: Movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here to see radar bigger.

Warnings: Severe alerts from National Weather Service. Updates w/o refresh (most browsers). Hint: Alert on map? Click matching label in key for details.

Watch vs. Warning?  |  Lightning Safety  |  Flood Safety  |  Tornado Safety

* Thunderstorms likely today: Full Forecast | NatCast *

Top panel: Global surface temperature trends over the last 50 or so years, courtesy NOAA. Bottom panel: Snow at the Capitol this past winter. By CWG photographer Ian Livingston.

Memories of the record-breaking cold and snowstorms of last winter, including Snowpocalypse, Snowmaggedon and Snoverkill, have probably faded, as eventually will be true of memories of the record-breaking heat this summer. Unless, that is, the extreme winter and summer weather prove to be just a preview of conditions that become the new normal as a consequence of global climate change. Should that prove the case, it might be hard to forget "the good ole days" when the extremes of winter/summer of 2009/2010 were the exception, not the rule.

How likely is that we're entering an age where extremes in weather become the new normal? Personally, I believe the weight of evidence viewed objectively points in that general direction, although there is much uncertainty about details of how, when, where and in what phenomena and parameters extremes will appear and have consequence in human affairs.

In regard to the snowstorms that affected the D.C. metro region and other mid-Atlantic and northeast coastal regions, a new study by a team of scientists at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory argues that global warming was not involved. Rather, the study finds the anomalous winter was primarily the result of convergence of an exceptionally strong El Nino and unusually strong negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Seasonable weekend won't seem seasonable!

* A colorful D.C. sunset | Were you caught off-guard Sunday? *
* Outside now? Temps & more: Weather Wall | NatCast *
* # of 90+ days: 43 (Apr: 2; May: 3; Jun: 18; Jul: 20), Record: 67, 1980 *

Today's Daily Digit

 

A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

Your
Call?

Storms are nobody's friend after Sunday but with some luck they'll miss both am and pm commutes.
 
Get the 'Digit' on Twitter

EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Partly cloudy, midday and p.m. t-showers. 91-94. | Tonight: Clearing early. 67-72. | Tomorrow: Sunny, drier. 84-88. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

By David Streit, CWG Meteorologist

The storms today should be fairly benign and they mark the leading edge of one of the driest air masses we have seen in a long time. The break in the heat and humidity make for a great first half of the weekend. Unfortunately, showers (not storms) should return on Sunday so get the outdoor activities in on Friday and Saturday. Below normal temperatures in July have been limited to the first 3 days of the month. Glad to say good bye to July!

Radar & lightning: Latest regional radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Today (Thursday): The day is likely to start off mostly sunny and humid. The temperatures will make a quick run up through the 80s as a line of thundershowers approaches from the northwest from midday into the early afternoon. Highs should peak in the lower 90s just about then. The thundershowers (70% probability) will knock readings down to the upper 70s in much of the area. Look for a few wind gusts and brief heavy downpours but damage should be minimal. Best bet is that the skies will begin to clear by late afternoon. Confidence: Medium

Thundercast:
Probability: 70%
Coverage: Scattered to widespread
Likely timing: 11 a.m. to 5 p.m.

Tonight: The breezes from the north this evening along with clearing skies are the first signs of drier, milder air starting its invasion. Evening temperatures should be in the upper 70s to lower 80s and slowly decline to the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight. Confidence: Medium

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

* Our Full Forecast | Weather Wall | Nationals Journal *

Nationals vs. Braves
Thursday July 29, 12:35 p.m., Nationals Park

First Pitch	9th Inning	Weather	Chance of Rain
Near 90	Low 80s	Thundery	60%

This is a forecast I would be happy to have bust! However, a line of thundershowers is very possible during the game. With a little luck, the showers arrive early. The storms should move through quickly and the end of the game can then be free of the heat. Bring a towel and an umbrella.

NatCast appears on the day of every Nationals home game. Also, if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.