Another 90 degree day puts D.C. in #2 all time for 90+

* Earl threatens coast from N.C. northward | BeachCast *
* Hurricane Tracking Center | Warmest summer on record *
* Earl Q & As for Outer Banks to VA/MD/DE | Chat transcript *

Despite all the excitement about Hurricane Earl, it's a pretty quiet and boring day around here unless you were eagerly awaiting adding another 90+ day to the list. But, this one is somewhat significant in that hitting 59 puts us tied for #2 all time for 90 degree days in a year. Things stay calm into the evening though you may notice increasing high clouds moving into the area from the south and southeast as Earl heads toward its closest approach.

Through Tonight: As Hurricane Earl moves closer to the North Carolina coast, things will be pretty quiet in this neck of the woods. Mostly clear skies early likely become partly to mostly cloudy thanks to high level clouds associated with Earl. Lows reach the upper 60s to lower 70s, and a light wind from the south may shift to the east as Earl begins to pass by offshore.

Tomorrow (Friday): Hurricane Earl will be passing well to our east and northeast during the day tomorrow, and the most noticeable change around here will be a shift in the winds to a northerly direction. Still, highs should reach 90 or above most spots. Happily, cooler air is inbound for the weekend...

See David Streit's forecast through the beginning of next week. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

* Awaiting weekend relief: Full Forecast | BeachCast *
* Hurricane Tracking Center | Warmest summer on record *
* Earl Q & As for Mid-Atlantic & Northeast | | Chat transcript *

As of 2 p.m., Hurricane Earl's maximum sustained winds have decreased to 125 mph, which now makes it a Category 3 storm (down from 140 mph and Category 4 earlier today). Though continued gradual weakening is anticipated, the National Hurricane Center expects Earl to remain a powerful hurricane as it passes the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

See our earlier posts for Q & As about impacts from the Outer Banks to the VA/MD/DE beaches, and for the Northeast/New England area.

* Awaiting weekend relief: Full Forecast | BeachCast *
* Hurricane Tracking Center | Warmest summer on record *
* Earl Q & As for Outer Banks to VA/MD/DE | Live chat at 1 p.m. *

Infrared satellite image of Hurricane Earl this afternoon, as the center gets closer to the Carolina coast. Credit: NASA.

Earlier we focused a series of Q & As on the potential impacts of Hurricane Earl from the DE/MD/VA beaches and south to the Outer Banks, N.C.. As the Category 4 storm with 140 mph winds continues to advance northward -- it is now the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record this far north in U.S. coastal waters, according to Jeff Masters at Weather Underground -- let's take a look at conditions expected along the coast from Delaware/New Jersey toward points north. We'll start north in New England, which may see the worst impacts of anyone in the Northeast, and then work our way south.

What can New England and New York expect?

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for much of the Massachusetts and Rhode Island coast. From CWG's Andrew Freedman:

Earl is currently projected to pass very close to the island of Nantucket on Friday night. Although most computer models predict the center of the storm will stay offshore by about 30 miles, that is far too close for comfort, and close enough to bring hurricane-force sustained winds to the island.

The wind field of this storm may expand as the storm weakens and races past New England, so much of southeastern Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and eastern Long Island will likely experience tropical storm-force winds (39 to 73 mph) from Earl. New York City will probably be far enough away from the storm's center to escape with just a period of breezy and rainy weather on Friday. Downeast Maine may even get clipped by hurricane-force wind gusts, depending on how close Earl comes.

Keep reading for more on Earl's potential impact as it moves up the coast...

Answers to frequent questions about Earl

* Awaiting weekend relief: Full Forecast | BeachCast *
* Hurricane Tracking Center | Warmest summer on record *

Satellite image of Hurricane Earl this morning. Credit: NOAA.

updated at 11:15 a.m.

At 11 a.m., Hurricane Earl was 300 miles south of Cape Hatteras, N.C., heading north at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 140 miles per hour and Earl remains a powerful Category 4 hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward up to 90 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds out to 230 miles.

We imagine you have many questions about this dangerous storm, so here are some Qs and As:

What is expected for the D.C. Metro area?

At the moment, the track of Earl should be sufficiently far off the coast to only bring high clouds and an outside (20%) chance of some gusty showers.

Could these impacts be worse than expected and even bring severe conditions into the Washington metro area?

Yes but very unlikely. As hurricane track prediction is an imperfect science, there is a very slight possibility of significant storm effects in D.C. However, computer models have consistently kept Earl sufficiently far offshore, due to a cold front coming from the west that should push Earl away. Therefore, we're confident that chances for heavy rain and wind in the metro region are low. The models (and the National Hurricane Center) would have to be catastrophically wrong for the D.C. metro region to experience a repeat of Hurricane Isabel, for example.

Closer to the coast, however, the margin for error is smaller -- and even a slight shift in track closer to the shoreline (to the west) would mean more rain and wind, bigger waves and more damage. The Outer Banks of North Carolina, in particular, could experience devastating impacts if Earl maintains its current intensity and passes directly overhead. The more likely scenario, however, is that the core of Earl will remain offshore as it passes the Outer Banks, where serious impacts expected even though sustained hurricane-force winds are not a certainty.

Keep reading for more Qs and As...

Earl likely to graze coast & miss metro region

* Tropical Storm Warning for VA/MD/DE coast | BeachCast *
* Warmest summer on record | The t'storm and the Battle of Oxen Hill *

Today's Daily Digit

 

A somewhat subjective rating of the
day's weather, on a scale of 0 to 10.

 

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Call?

Sure temps are hot & humidity is higher but I'm anticipating the transformation of haze to beautiful blue skies this weekend.
 
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EXPRESS FORECAST

Today: Mostly sunny and hot. 91-95. | Tonight: Fair and calm. 65-71. | Tomorrow: High clouds and breezy. 88-92. | A Look Ahead | Get Express Forecast by E-mail

FORECAST IN DETAIL

By David Streit, CWG Meteorologist

The constant chatter about heat and 90+ days takes a brief backseat to the unnervingly close approach of Hurricane Earl. This storm is a monster and will batter the mid-Atlantic beaches hard on Friday with 10+ foot waves. The region's salvation comes in the form of a strong cold front rumbling across the Midwest, arriving in the nick of time to probably nudge Earl just far enough east to spare the metro area. Not only that, it brings a cooler and drier air mass to grace the holiday weekend.

Today (Thursday): Another day of rapidly climbing temperatures through the morning makes short work of 70s and 80s and has us back in the low-to-mid 90s for the afternoon. Unrelenting sunshine and increasing afternoon humidity keeps the sweat factor high. Light breezes come in from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Confidence: High

Tonight: Clear and calm conditions give no clue of Hurricane Earl coming up the coast. Evening readings still hold in the 80s due to the humid air. Lows only bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s in the suburbs with low 70s downtown. Confidence: Medium-High

Keep reading for the forecast through Monday....

* Tropical Storm Warning for VA/MD/DE coast | PM forecast update *

Infrared image of Hurricane Earl at 10:30 p.m. ET. Courtesy NASA.

Earl has reached its greatest strength as it starts to turn up the East Coast, but probably offshore. At 11 p.m., the category 4 hurricane, positioned 520 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, had maximum sustained winds of 140 mph. This is a very impressive hurricane as evident in its very symmetrical appearance on satellite imagery and well-defined eye.

The storm is now moving more towards the north than the northwest -- which is important -- because this turn reduces, but does not eliminate, the risk that the storm will come ashore on the North Carolina Outer Banks.

Veteran meteorologist Dave Tolleris, at wxrisk.com writes:

As of 6:00 PM and 7:00 PM this evening the the satellite data clearly shows that hurricane EARL has turned due North. This is much sooner than midday forecasted models and track has been calling for. . . . As a result the odds are significantly increased that EARL will pass EAST of Cape Hatteras...

On the other hand, the National Hurricane Center, suggests what Tolleris observed was merely a northward wobble not a major turn:

HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16 [which is just west of north]. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK

Hurricane Earl re-strengthens to Category 4

* Tropical Storm Warning for VA/MD/DE coast | PM forecast update *
* Morning Hurricane Earl update | Hurricane Tracking Center *
* Warmest summer on record | The t'storm and the Battle of Oxen Hill *

Forecast track and "cone of uncertainty" from the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. forecast advisory.

Hurricane Earl has again become better organized this afternoon and evening on its path toward the East Coast of the U.S. Earl is expected to fluctuate in intensity over the next 12 hours or so, with some potential additional strengthening possible in the short term. Gradual weakening thereafter is expected as the storm accelerates and swings up the East Coast. Winds now sustained near 135 mph are expected to remain above Category 3 intensity as Earl approaches the NC Outer Banks.

A Tropical Storm warning is now posted for the VA/MD/DE beaches, where the timing of worst impacts would be late Thursday into Friday. The forecast track of the storm did shift slightly west in the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) update, but not far enough to change most thoughts on the storm. However, the odds of seeing tropical storm force winds of 39 mph+ at nearby beaches has grown slightly (now about a 50-60% chance according to NHC).

By Friday afternoon and evening, Earl should be headed out of the broader region though it likely continues to impact some coastal areas to the northeast into Friday night.

Heat begins to back off Thursday; Earl approaches coast

* Earl now Cat. 4: Tropical Storm Warning for VA/MD/DE coast *
* Morning Hurricane Earl update | Hurricane Tracking Center *
* Warmest summer on record | The t'storm and the Battle of Oxen Hill *
* Outside now? Radar, temperatures & more: Weather Wall *

5 PM Earl Update: Earl has strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 135 mph. A Tropical Storm Warning is now posted for the VA/MD/DE beaches, where the timing of worst impacts would be late Thursday into Friday.

Today is day four of the current heat wave, the third day in a row with temperatures in the mid-90s, and day 58 this year of 90 degrees or higher at National Airport. Had enough? Well, too bad -- it's going to be hot forever. OK, OK, on a serious note, we should start stepping down tomorrow but it could still top 90 through Friday.

Through Tonight: Another very warm evening is ahead as readings fall into the 80s around sunset. We have picked up a bit more in the way of humidity, so temperatures probably stay up a smidge overnight. Look for lows in the upper 60s in the suburbs to the low-or-mid 70s downtown.

Tomorrow (Thursday): More mostly sunny skies visit the area. The heat wave should easily enter day five by midday with highs in the low 90s a good bet everywhere and perhaps a few mid-90s mixed in.

See Dan Stillman's forecast through the weekend. And if you haven't already, join us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Hurricane Earl: As of 2 p.m. the center of Hurricane Earl was about 680 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC and moving northwest at 17 mph. While Earl weakened back to a Category 3 system this morning, with sustained winds of 125 mph, early afternoon data indicated the storm may attempt to re-strengthen to a Category 4, if only temporarily. Check out a cool video that NASA has posted which shows Earl from August 30 through today.

* Weekend relief: Full Forecast | Hottest summer on record *
* Hurricane Earl: Watches for VA/MD/DE beaches | Hurricane Tracking *

In the rain, the Union Army retreats to Washington the day after the Battle of Second Manassas, Aug. 31, 1862. The Confederate Army was in pursuit, chasing the Union troops eastward toward Washington. On the following day, the Battle of Ox Hill occurred just northwest of Fairfax, Va., during an intense thunderstorm that made the soldier's black powder weapons unserviceable, helping turn the fierce battle into a muddy stalemate. Source: Washington Weather

Earlier this summer, I wrote a post about a thunderstorm that helped save Washington from fires that were set by an invading British army in 1814. The storm's heavy rains extinguished the flames and prevented the British from lighting more fires in the city.

There is one more example of a thunderstorm that thwarted the efforts of an attacking army with plans to conquer Washington. Fast forward from the year 1814 to 1862, exchange the British Army with the Confederate Army, and exchange one drenching thunderstorm for another. It was a severe thunderstorm on Sept. 1, 1862, which played a very important role in changing the course of a major Civil War battle that occurred near Fairfax, Va. This is the story of the thunderstorm and the Battle of Ox Hill...

Earl's strongest winds to likely remain offshore

* How much more heat? Full Forecast | Hurricane Tracking Center *
* Summer 2010 hottest on record in Washington *

As of 11 a.m., Hurricane Earl was positioned 725 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras and is moving northwest at 17 mph. Most computer models continue to indicate Earl will remain offshore though a couple have the center briefly passing over the North Carolina outer banks, where a hurricane warning is in effect. A hurricane watch covers the VA/MD/DE beaches. Earl's maximum sustained winds are 125 mph, down from 135 mph this yesterday -- making it a Category 3 storm.

Probability of hurricane force winds along the U.S. East Coast. Source National Hurricane Center.

Significant marine impacts are expected along many mid-Atlantic coastal locations with rough seas and dangerous rip currents. Despite its weakening, since Earl is a rather large hurricane, tropical-storm force wind gusts in rain squalls will likely brush the Outer Banks for several hours very early Friday morning. High seas up to 25 feet are possible just offshore of the Outer Banks (10-15 feet offshore VA/MD/DE beaches) with significant ocean overwash and sound-side flooding.

For the VA/MD/DE beaches, impacts will likely be less pronounced but not insignificant. Some showers and wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible late Thursday night into Friday, with strong wave action, dangerous rip currents, and the possibility of minor coastal flooding. Though a hurricane watch has been issued for the VA/MD/DE beaches, hurricane force winds are not especially likely there unless the storm shifts west.