Alert: Unexpected Midday Showers

Precipitation mainly north and west of downtown

Latest DC area radar loop, courtesy National Weather Service. Refresh page to update, or click here to expand.

Despite some sun shining through in parts of the metro area, radar shows another batch of showers moving into the area as the lunch hour nears. Rain was originally expected to mostly hold off until the late afternoon or evening, but the reality is that radar suggests a chance of off-and-on showers throughout the day, especially north and west of DC, with a steadier and heavier rain still on track for tonight.

Highs in the mid-to-upper 40s today, to low 50s in southern portions of the metro area, will be followed by lows near 40 tonight. See Matt's post for the forecast through the weekend.

By Capital Weather Gang |  January 29, 2008; 11:40 AM ET Alerts , Forecasts
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Comments

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How about that you guys "suggest" that there is a chance of on and off showers throughout the day instead the radar?
Or how about getting the forecast correct in the first place?

Posted by: Mark | January 29, 2008 12:01 PM
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Mark -- thanks for the comment. One thing you'll notice here is that while our forecasts are often on tartget (arguably more so than a lot of other outlets), we don't hide when we get it wrong. And we will get it wrong every once in a while ... it's the just the nature of the business.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | January 29, 2008 12:46 PM
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Mark,

Why so angry? The CapitalWeather gang does a tremendous job at forecasting. Unfortunately, its not an exact science and takes quite a bit of skill to make predictions - thus they'll be off on occasion (very limited though). Give them a break - they do a great job.

Posted by: MoSno | January 29, 2008 1:08 PM
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Yay! It's raining :) If it ain't gonna snow, then let there be rain. We need every precious drop! .5 inches by noon in New Baltimore.

Augusta Jim is it raining in The Boro?

Posted by: weathergrrl | January 29, 2008 1:17 PM
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Cap team. Do you think there will ever be point in our future where a decent Virginia snowfall will be compared the chances such as the Atlanta,GA area. It does worry me. Not so much the snow but our abrupt weather pattern change in general. It seems only years ago, we had good snows here and plenty of cold. What marks such "significant" changes in our temps and weather patterns.

Global Warming appears to be a factor, along with La Nina. However, I thought GW was very gradual.I am unfamilliar witht he progression of our climate state. Should we belive Al Gore's insight. Are there other areas in the United States under similar changes as us.

It seems DC/NOVA/MD have always been on a fine line between rain/snow. It now looks like that line has been moved much further north to areas like Western and Northern PA, if not further north then that.

Areas down in VA are still in a crisis such as Stafford County, still under mandatory water restrictions. Its not just warmth, it seems we are much drier as well. I agree these storms may help but that will not put a dent in our overall drought. If we dont get 5+ inches of rain this winter and have another dry,hot summer. This area is gonna be in trouble. I read a good book called "Tapped Out". Scary, but seems to be holding some truth. How can we reverse this? or is it unreversable.

Posted by: ChrisfromVA | January 29, 2008 2:09 PM
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I think the weather outside now deserves consideration for a winter "Nice-day Stamp."

Posted by: steve takoma park md | January 29, 2008 2:51 PM
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I think it's too easy to hammer on weather forecasters for getting it wrong - or maybe not as right as we would have liked. Some psychological research indicates people are better recalling memories when there are higher degrees of anticipation for the event. Kind of explains why so many can remember the "bust" forecasts of years gone by.

One thing I liked about the old site is when the forecasts were graded. It was a great way of measuring the performance of the CWG or any other outlet.

Performance on the High confidence forecasts should be pretty damn good. It's when a forecaster goes out on a limb with their calls with the Medium and Low confidence forecast they show how good they really are.

Any chance of bringing back the forecast grades on a regular basis?

Posted by: John - Burke | January 29, 2008 3:03 PM
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Sterling office has a heads up for possible "significant ice storm" late Thursday night. What think you, Cap Weather team -- will enough cold air come back in time for this to transpire?

Posted by: jmbethesda | January 29, 2008 3:11 PM
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Mark...Less than .10" fell across the region this AM...I hope you didn't get too wet..:)

Posted by: Matt Ross, Capital Weather Gang | January 29, 2008 3:12 PM
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Weathergrrl:
Just logged on. Regarding rain in the Boro. We had .03 last night, not a drop today.

Latest model data suggests possible significant icing Thursday night for the Blue Ridge and Shenandoah Valley. D.C. would be marginal.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 29, 2008 3:20 PM
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NWS is trying to make my Friday miserable--what say you? Tell me there's not going to be an ice storm.

Posted by: dynagirl | January 29, 2008 4:05 PM
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Radar can't suggest anything. The weather forecasters read that tool and then they make the call. To me saying 'radar suggests' means that weather forecasters are not "owning" their forecast. Plus, its a little frustrating to walk out in the morning to ride the motorcycle to work and be wet 5 mintues into the ride.

Posted by: Mark | January 30, 2008 7:24 AM
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