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Posted at 7:30 PM ET, 01/16/2008

Alert: Snow Confidence Increasing

By Jason Samenow

The latest data I'm analyzing has increased my confidence in the likelihood of accumulating snow tomorrow (65%). The storm radar appears impressive (notice the precipitation coverage to the southwest) and snow has been reported as far south as Atlanta. The details given in Steve's earlier post on timing and impact are on track. The snow will likely start too late to affect the opening of schools but some early dismissals are possible. Initial indications are that at least an inch of snow is possible in the metro area with several inches to the north and west (e.g. Frederick and Loudoun County) before a changeover to mixed precipitation. We'll be looking at some new data in a few hours, so stay tuned for more updates.

By Jason Samenow  | January 16, 2008; 7:30 PM ET
Categories:  Alerts  
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Next: Forecast: How Much Snow?

Comments

sweeeeeeeeeeeeet.... what's the snow potential for Montgomery County?

Posted by: skins fan | January 16, 2008 7:42 PM | Report abuse

Just curious...what would be the snow potential for western Prince William, near the Fauquier County line? Bob Ryan had my part of the county shaded under 2"-4" of snow, then mix.

Posted by: Nikki near Haymarket | January 16, 2008 7:51 PM | Report abuse

Confidence increasing?!?!?!?!?! :)Must..not..get..too...excited....

Posted by: Snowlover2! | January 16, 2008 7:53 PM | Report abuse

Nikki-- What Bob has sounds about reasonable for y'all

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 7:56 PM | Report abuse

skinsfan: 1-3" for most of Montgomery Co, 2-4" far northwest portions.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 7:57 PM | Report abuse

Is it looking better for snow for us in Washington County? Love the site and since I'm a rabid reader of all things WashPo online this is great....keep it up!!

Posted by: EricB | January 16, 2008 7:58 PM | Report abuse

Jason,

What are the chances it stays all snow in most places or holds on longer than expected? What could the totals be if that happens?

Posted by: TJ | January 16, 2008 8:04 PM | Report abuse

Rain!

Posted by: greg | January 16, 2008 8:19 PM | Report abuse

I was wondering if someone could tell me where I could find the links for models. I know it has been posted before, but I can't seem to find the post, Thanks a lot. Jesse

Posted by: thejesse2442 | January 16, 2008 8:19 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for answering, Jason. I'll be happy just getting that.

Posted by: Nikki near Haymarket | January 16, 2008 8:20 PM | Report abuse

oooo....dancing, dancing

Posted by: missy | January 16, 2008 8:24 PM | Report abuse

I have a feeling this is going to be one of those storms that surprises us - much like the clipper last month. QPF for the storm is at .74 (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d12_fill.gif)
and dewpoints are in the low to mid 20's. Already precipitation is moving quicker and is of a stronger intensity than forecast.

Posted by: 320_sq_feet | January 16, 2008 8:25 PM | Report abuse

Jason, when you say Loudoun County are you talking about the Dulles area or Route 15 and west? And how many inches is several?

Posted by: Jay | January 16, 2008 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Greg- Stickin with you on this one buddy.

Posted by: Havoc | January 16, 2008 8:27 PM | Report abuse

Jay: Dulles 2-3", west of 15: 3-4" this is just a first guess. Still need to do more analysis.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 8:33 PM | Report abuse

What I don't understand is that I live in NW Anne Arundel County and we are not under the winter weather advisory and Baltimore County is? Are temps all but miror BWI's? Can someone explain this? P.S. - How much snow should I expect being in the Odenton, MD area? Thanks guys!

Posted by: Snowlover | January 16, 2008 8:35 PM | Report abuse

Here we go. All the weenies asking "how much snow for my street".....people there is no way to forecast how much snow for your little zip code. Sit back and wait for the updates.

Posted by: Bob from nowhere | January 16, 2008 8:46 PM | Report abuse

Way to go Greg. RAIN! Come on now; you know better than that. Looks like a quick 1-4 then hour or 2 of frozen then precip may shut off, leaving us with some snow cover for the weekend blast, which will really cool the area below guidance, especially if the winds are calm and skies clear. Still frozen in Atlanta at this hour.

Posted by: PC | January 16, 2008 8:53 PM | Report abuse

Laughing at Bob from nowhere...can you tell me how much snow I'll get here in upper south central western woodbridge?

Posted by: TJ | January 16, 2008 8:56 PM | Report abuse

Wow Bobby somebody is bitter - don't worry I am sure a few flakes will fall in your zip code too :)

Posted by: Snowlover | January 16, 2008 8:58 PM | Report abuse

TJ:

.5 east of Rt 1, south of Dale Blvd
1.1, north of Opitz, east of 95
1.6 North of Opitz, to Fairfax border
2.2 Old Bridge Rd north and west to PWC Stadium
.3 Quantico
1.4 Jail City (clears throat) Dale City

Just to answer your question...Good luck!

Posted by: PC | January 16, 2008 9:02 PM | Report abuse

9 p.m.: Chattanooga Tenn. reporting snow, vis. down to 1 mile and 33 degrees. Snow reaching the surface will be entering southwest Va. within a few hrs.!!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 9:13 PM | Report abuse

Well, before I left the ole' office at RTC, I announced I was working from home tomorrow. Looks like a good call on my end. Because it looks like my street in my zip code here in my town might get about 2 inches. LOL. And that might just cause utter chaos with the folks who live around here and don't knwo wht to do when snow actually covers the ground. ;-)

Posted by: Kim in Manassas | January 16, 2008 9:15 PM | Report abuse

does anyone know where i can find road surface temperatures for the area? VA, DC, or MD will do just to get a general idea for the area...

Posted by: Kenneth | January 16, 2008 9:17 PM | Report abuse

Speaking of road surfaces....anyone think that the AM commute on Friday is going to be quite the adventure once everything has fallen....and then frozen? ;-)

Posted by: Kim in Manassas | January 16, 2008 9:21 PM | Report abuse

Only thing that concerns me is I'm at 37 F, with calm winds. Not so sure the temp can fall all that much tonight.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 9:24 PM | Report abuse

35 degrees here with no wind whatsoever temperature has been dropping slowly. Down from 37 two hours ago.

Posted by: thejesse2442 | January 16, 2008 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Toes crossed for some accumulation, because the only snow we got here this winter, back in December, I was in Boulder, CO where it was 65 and sunny! If the models are a little off and the low tracks a tad more east I think we could see 3 inches in Arlington?

Posted by: Nader | January 16, 2008 9:26 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: Anonymous | January 16, 2008 9:35 PM | Report abuse

Is this a slow-moving storm, or am I misreading the radar in the link Jason posted? That storm looks awfully close to us for the precip to arrive after morning rush tomorrow as per Steve's CommuteCast today.

Posted by: ~sg | January 16, 2008 9:36 PM | Report abuse

Links to maps of advisory areas?

Posted by: missy | January 16, 2008 9:36 PM | Report abuse

Kim in Manassas - Do you work at RTC in Georgetown?

Posted by: Jamie C from Chevy Chase DC | January 16, 2008 9:40 PM | Report abuse

Winter Storm Warnings Loudoun/Frederick west!

Posted by: Chris in Wheaton | January 16, 2008 9:43 PM | Report abuse

this is starting to remind me of the december storm--the little storm that could!!

Posted by: baltimore russ | January 16, 2008 9:43 PM | Report abuse

A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for my neck of the woods, Loudoun County. YAY!!! Weather service says 3-5"... Any thoughts?

Posted by: Model Monkey | January 16, 2008 9:44 PM | Report abuse

I'm very happy to see the NWS following my lead from several hrs. ago, increasing my totals to 3-5 inches. They have upped the ante a few minutes ago by issuing a Winter Storm Warning for my area with 4-8 inches now expected !!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 9:46 PM | Report abuse

PC,

Jail City...that's good. Heard 'Hoodbridge, Dumpfries, but not that one...back to the weather before I get outcasted. I said that this storm would outperform because it wasn't hyped.....we'll see.

Posted by: TJ | January 16, 2008 9:49 PM | Report abuse

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENT. TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4 UP TO 8 INCHES MAY OCCUR...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF...A LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT SO HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

Ken in Ashburn

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW... AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

Posted by: 4-8 | January 16, 2008 9:50 PM | Report abuse

so hard to follow all the comments on different posts...

Posted by: missy | January 16, 2008 9:55 PM | Report abuse

noaa says 3-7 in in north moco

Posted by: sam | January 16, 2008 9:59 PM | Report abuse

To clarify for all you fine folks. The latest from the NWS.

4-8 inches for the Valley from my area to Winchester and Hagerstown.

1-3 inches for D.C.

2-4 inches for the Baltimore area

Posted by: AUGUSTA JIM | January 16, 2008 10:03 PM | Report abuse

Any guesses on Germantown MD? I hope it's 5+. Thanks,

Posted by: Tormented in Germantown | January 16, 2008 10:04 PM | Report abuse

23 F right now in Riyadh...

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 10:07 PM | Report abuse

Hahahahahahahahahaha!!!! Under hype and look....WSW in Loudoun County and beyond!

Posted by: greg | January 16, 2008 10:10 PM | Report abuse

2-4 for west ffx county...

Posted by: snowman in herndon | January 16, 2008 10:11 PM | Report abuse

Are you sure about the timing of the storm? Onset of precipitation in the latter part of the morning seems a bit late judging on how the leading edge has almost made it to the NC/VA border.

Posted by: Model Monkey | January 16, 2008 10:11 PM | Report abuse

This link may come in handy tomorrow for Federal Gov Closings/Delays...

http://www.opm.gov/status/

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 10:13 PM | Report abuse

2-4 in western FFX???

I only see 1-3. Where are you getting this?

Posted by: Ivan | January 16, 2008 10:16 PM | Report abuse

Henry is dissing our Wash DC metro dew points -- he says no big deal here...sniff...come on snow ..let's prove him wrong.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=pantagraph&blog=meteomadness

Posted by: Jenn in Reston | January 16, 2008 10:17 PM | Report abuse

Jamie C...sorry, that is Reston Town Center, not RTC RTC. LOL.


Just sitting here watching the Barrett Jackson Car auction on TV and using my Blackberry to tell the boss who has already bowed out of work in the office tomorrow due to the wx threat. :-) Bless technology.

Posted by: Kim in Manassas | January 16, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

The VRE comes in handy for wintery days like we might be getting.

Posted by: John - Burke | January 16, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

Model Monkey:
Part of what you are looking at on radar is virga. This is evaporating before reaching the surface. Precip. the radar is painting at 5000- 10000 ft. may be evaporating long before it reaches you.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 10:18 PM | Report abuse

Oh...and it is 30 here. Whatever falls...sticks. WOOHOOO!

Posted by: Kim in Manassas | January 16, 2008 10:19 PM | Report abuse

Hmmm...just got home from work, haven't really looked at to much except the radar, and that is a nice looking storm....right now NWS is saying we here in arnold get less than a .5" snow...I have a feeling that will change. This storm could surprise, but I'm not sure how much, definitely one to watch.

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 16, 2008 10:22 PM | Report abuse

Damn...I miss living in the "points west" part of the forecast area. This storm is going to force me back on the metro...Yes, due to increased fare for lackluster service on both bus and rail, another car is back on the road. I am working on a carpool though. Ummm, is Chicken Lady still with us?

Posted by: Sara in Oakton | January 16, 2008 10:24 PM | Report abuse

Model Monkey and others:
If you have the capability to filter the radar, try a 15 dbz setting. Usually precip. indicated at 15 dbz is reaching the surface, but you have to pay for this luxury in most cases. Otherwise you can closely interpret the color scale on sites such as Weather Underground.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 10:29 PM | Report abuse

Man, I really hope it doesn't start snowing till later tomorrow morning. I have my last exam from 7:45-9:45 and I really don't want it pushed to friday. I want my 5 day weekend to start already!!!

Posted by: Peter | January 16, 2008 10:34 PM | Report abuse

Jenn -- perhaps Henry Margusity is downplaying snow around here because I sent him a polite but insistent email a month or so ago -- right after one of those storms that he insisted we'd get over 6" and got only RAIN -- that basically stated, "temper the hype, dude!" He is one of the WORST offenders in all East Coast meteorology circles. I read his blog for entertainment purposes only...

Posted by: VAStateOfMind | January 16, 2008 10:42 PM | Report abuse

Does this mean it will be staying snow longer? Possibly frozen throught?

Posted by: Fred | January 16, 2008 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Kalorama Park: Are you in Riyadh now, or just tracking the temps there? Thought you'd still be local through mid-Feb, maybe.

Posted by: ~sg | January 16, 2008 10:53 PM | Report abuse

Thanks for the clarification, Augusta Jim... I always forget about that pesky virga. It doesn't seem to be very dry, though...

Posted by: Model Monkey | January 16, 2008 11:02 PM | Report abuse

WMAR in Baltimore is calling for as much as 8 inches of snow in the area.

Posted by: HEELS | January 16, 2008 11:03 PM | Report abuse

Update coming shortly.

Posted by: Dan, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 11:05 PM | Report abuse

I have never anything like this before. In literally 5 hours time, I watched our point forcast on the NWS sight go from a winter weather advisory, to a winter storm warning (3 - 5 in.), then 4 - 6 in., then up to 4 - 8 in., and now 5 - 9 inches. We are roughly 50 miles north of DC, and typically get the "NW suburb" weather. Has anyone seen such a deviation in a forecast in such a short amount of time?

Posted by: larry in westminster | January 16, 2008 11:07 PM | Report abuse

No love for aa county?

Posted by: CJ | January 16, 2008 11:08 PM | Report abuse

VAStateOfMind - LOL -- I know Henry is such a kidder. I just found it amusing that after he calls for huge snow amounts everywhere else that he says we stay rain. Maybe he did listen to you - let's hope so.

Bob Ryan is saying 3 to 6 for Western FFX. Maybe this storm keeps my in-laws in Va Beach for the weekend instead of visiting here. ;)

Posted by: Jenn in Reston | January 16, 2008 11:09 PM | Report abuse

HEY FOLKS!!!
REMEMBER THE THREAT FOR SAT. I STARTED TALKING ABOUT YESTERDAY??
THE 00Z NAM IS NOW KICKING OUT 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW LATE SAT.
CAN WE HANDLE TWO SYSTEMS IN 3 DAYS????

Posted by: AUGUSTA JIM | January 16, 2008 11:10 PM | Report abuse

Augusta Jim, I'd have to agree with you that Saturday night is looking pretty good right now...definitely something to watch...

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 16, 2008 11:15 PM | Report abuse

Jim,

I agree with you that we've got a decent shot at accumulating snowfall late Saturday into Sunday. In fact, temperatures aloft and at the surface look noticeably cooler than they will be for tomorrow's "event." Snow on Thursday and then snow again on Saturday in DC?!? Seems too good to be true.

(As I write this at the moment, it's 7 above in Boulder, CO; our high today was 15!)

Posted by: Josh, Capital Weather Gang | January 16, 2008 11:15 PM | Report abuse

Bob Ryan said storm looks more potent and increased snow totals for areas west. 3-6 inches.

Topper didn't change the forecast at all. Didn't even issue a forecast for the Shenandoah Valley. Still thinking 1-2 inches in Northern Virginia.

Posted by: winchester | January 16, 2008 11:26 PM | Report abuse

Remember 95-96 ??

That was a La Nina winter.

Probably no analogue, but an interesting thought!

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 16, 2008 11:29 PM | Report abuse

Stuck in Afghanistan where it is snowing, and the visibility is near zero--no planes are flying and my time in theater with the Marines ended four days ago. So now even if I get out, I could be flying into snowy
DC. Just my luck. But I do love a good winter storm, especially if I was sitting at my favorite tavern in Arlington.

Posted by: Bill | January 17, 2008 12:13 AM | Report abuse

Stuck in Afghanistan where it is snowing, and the visibility is near zero--no planes are flying and my time in theater with the Marines ended four days ago. So now even if I get out, I could be flying into snowy
DC. Just my luck. But I do love a good winter storm, especially if I was sitting at my favorite tavern in Arlington.

Posted by: Bill | January 17, 2008 12:17 AM | Report abuse

I just got back from the gym and all I got to say is Holy Molly! What a change of events..I thought this thing would be a messy rain event..Then I hear from posts of another storm behind it...GFS looks like a couple more storms will affect us next week...Guys WINTER IS NOT OVER YET! Just getting off to a late start...I decided to give myself a personal day tomorrow. I'm self employed so its cool being the boss. Im staying up all night to posts with the night owls of the bunch. Finally am excited. Its kinda sad when most of my kicks these days comes from a good storm....I have a great life, just have some obsessive tendencies towards my hobbies.

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 12:18 AM | Report abuse

Agusta Jim,

Are you still up? I wish I lived out your way.

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 1:02 AM | Report abuse

@Bill, thanks for visiting the Capital Weather Gang all the way from Afghanistan!

Posted by: Josh, Capital Weather Gang | January 17, 2008 1:08 AM | Report abuse

Let it snow! Love the new site guys.

Posted by: StormChaser | January 17, 2008 1:34 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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