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Posted at 10:30 AM ET, 01/14/2008

A Slight Shot at Snow Late This Week

By Josh Larson

Unclear if enough cold air will be in place.

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Thursday
Probability: 30%
Potential Impact:

Commentary: If you are unhappy with the fact that yesterday's snow passed the Washington, DC area by while dumping quite a bit over New England, don't get too down (yet). Computer modeling suggests that we have a chance (note: chance is a lot different from certainty) at snowfall for our region by Thursday. Most of the guidance suggests that an area of low pressure will develop by Wednesday over the Gulf Coast and push into the southeastern US by early Thursday. It is then expected that this storm system will lift north along the eastern seaboard by mid-day Thursday.

Unfortunately, since this storm won't even develop until mid-week, pinning down the track of this system is still a few days off. And since we don't have a good handle on the expected track of the storm yet, it is too clear to know with any semblance of confidence what precipitation type we might be able to expect from this system. As is typical with DC winter storms, if the track is too far west (as some of the models are indicating), then we're likely to see a rain event; if the storm is further to the east, i.e., just off the coast (as some models suggest), we have a shot at snow. And, finally, if the track of the system is too far east, we may be left high and dry. This third scenario seems least likely at this point.

For snow lovers, the limiting factor for this storm will be cold air. It's likely to be eroding just as this storm approaches. So in the DC area and points east, rain stands a good chance of being a big player unless the storm track is perfect.

Hopefully in the next day or two we'll have a better of idea of how this potential storm may evolve and just what impacts (if any) it may have on the Washington, DC area.

By Josh Larson  | January 14, 2008; 10:30 AM ET
Categories:  Winter Storms  
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