Forecast: Close Call With Coastal Low

Looking more and more like we will have to wait to winter 2008-2009 for a significant snow storm - but who know maybe February will surprise!

February has indeed been quite good in the past year's. Take that sleet/ice/snow storm from Valentines week last year...I sure hope February can hold some suprises like you said.

I agree. February is the month for snow in the dc area.

Sleet and ice, stay the hell away. Now that I've accepted being away from anywhere you can ski/snowsohe without driving 3 hours plus, I say rain or snow. Just do one or the other. That's all.

Yeah, really. I lost power for 3-4 days because of that ice storm and it was freezing inside the house!

15 degrees at 7 am.

The GFS for several runs now, establishes a storm track through the Ohio Valley during the next two to three weeks ( 500 mb ridging off the s.e. coast and a trough in the Mississippi Valley). This keeps us on the warm side of systems that should produce mostly rain in our area.

Lots of rain or snow is direly needed before spring as the drought continues to worsen!! This may come as a surprise to some but Reagan National has only received 54% of normal precip. year to date and Richmond Int. only 32% of normal. Most of our area is in moderate drought conditions with extreme to exceptional conditions over much of the southeast.

If this pattern continues into the spring and summer, we will all suffer the consequences in one way or the other, whether it be from higher food prices, water shortages or much higher electric bills because of nuclear power generating facilities closing down because of lack of water for cooling requirements, or other results of severe drought.

Any way you can post the five-day forecast (with graphics) at the top of the page on the new site like you had on the old one?

Looks like there may be a storm here next Thurs with some possible frozen precip? Any comments on that (i know it is a week away, but i am desparate!)

Ann -- we're working furiously on getting an at-a-glance forecast, similar to what you speak of, up on the page. Look for it in the next couple of weeks.

Mike:
Yes, if this mornings snapshot verified, that storm would begin as snow then change to rain, but looking that far out, details of that potential will change many times during the next 10-15 runs of the GFS, hopefully the changes will trend colder!!!

Some snow is now breaking out overhead but not reaching the surface. It appears to be in response to whatever wants to happen near the coast.

Another puny little DUSTING...while I'm waiting for a "KNICKERBOCKER"!!!

Please take heart...it's not over until the general SW-SE advection gets too warm for snow (late February to mid-March).

In climatological terms, we're now officially past the "dead of winter". Normal high temps in DC begin their upward trek today after bottoming out for the year at 42 degrees. (Now, 43 is normal high.)

Also, we begin gaining 2 minutes of daylight each day.

Spring is starting to make its move.

Snow appears to be breaking out near Annapolis at this time.

Patuxent River reported light snow at 11:18. They're the only regional station reporting precipitation

Patuxent River reported light snow at 11:18.

Yes, here in the Pax River area (Lexington Park), we have been getting light snow and/or sleet/snow grains for about an hour now. The usual surfaces (cars, mulchy areas, etc.) are getting a light dusting. Precipitation is very fine but steady.

FYI - WTOP mentioned the Capital Weather Gang's "Ranking the local forcaster" last night during their broadcast while talking with Doug Hill. I thought that was pretty cool.

It does look like beginning of Feb will begin a stormy pattern.

The snow shield has solidified just to our east and is slowly pulling away. Looks like we'll have to hope the front can drop a few flurries!

Is the actual front the band of precipitation that is just now developing in central PA?

Hey its really helpful when you gurus imbed links so we can look and try to figure out from your comment combined with the images what the situation is...like I want to see the band of precipitation that Brian is talking about but have no clue where to find this...

Try this Missy: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

If you click on any area of the map it will give you a zoomed in view of that area's NWS radar.

Brian, the precipitation is preceeding the front. The actual division in these airmasses (the physical cold front) is just now entering PA and WV.
http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xFronts.html

thanks!

On and off snow showers here - upslope showers crossing the mountains. Radar looks pretty good, with some showers making it east of I-81. Don't expect any accumulation but still nice to see the flakes!

A brief period of light snow fell in eastern Warren County (elevation 1900 ft). The temperature fell from a high of 40 to 33 over the past couple of hours.