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Posted at 5:30 AM ET, 01/23/2008

Another Slim Snow Chance on Thursday

By Jason Samenow

Measurable snow a long shot

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Thursday
Probability: 35%
Potential Impact:

As with most of the snow threats this winter season, odds favor less snow rather than more.

An Alberta clipper, a fast-moving weather disturbance originating in Canada, will dive southeastward from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. It won't have much moisture to speak of, so we'll likely just have some scattered snow showers or flurries. However, there's a small probability that the storm will redevelop off the North Carolina coast, tapping moisture from the Atlantic ocean. If that happens, snowfall would be enhanced, with some accumulation possible. The bad news is that the one forecast model which simulates accumulating snow (the North American Mesoscale, NAM) has been unreliable and often wrong this winter.

With that in mind, here are some snowfall probabilities:

  • 65% chance: Dusting or less
  • 15% chance: Dusting to 1"
  • 10% chance: 1-3"
  • 10% chance: 3"+

Unlike some previous storms, rain should not enter the equation. It will most likely be too cold.

See Dan's post for the full forecast through the weekend.

By Jason Samenow  | January 23, 2008; 5:30 AM ET
Categories:  Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Weather Pattern Remains Active
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I noticed that LWX was mentioning Tuesday of last week where those snow squalls came through as a possible similar event. I think a few areas pick up a quick dusting to a half inch with that activity and I agree with you that the low pops too far offshore. NAM has been terrible this year...Can't wait until they make the upgrades to it.

Posted by: Kenny | January 23, 2008 5:58 AM | Report abuse

As usual it seem the only time a mix/rain doesn't enter into the equation is when we have a small clipper system coming through. Oh how I long for one of those storms where temps don't get out of the 20's, all layers of the atmosphere are sub freezing and we get 8-12" of snow dumped on us!!

Posted by: Snowlover | January 23, 2008 6:44 AM | Report abuse

Ok, I'm on board now with too many posts. two or three a day is fine, but not two before 9am. Just my two cents.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 23, 2008 8:35 AM | Report abuse

I think more posts are needed when there's a snowlover's crystal ball involved.

Posted by: missy | January 23, 2008 9:03 AM | Report abuse

Kalorama: It's the same amount of content we had before. We've just split into two posts. And Missy is right, if there hadn't been the slight snow threat, it would've just been one.

Posted by: Jason, Capital Weather Gang | January 23, 2008 9:16 AM | Report abuse

I'm beginning to not like DC's weather anymore. Anyone up for moving to Vermont? At least you're guaranteed at least 2 or 3 good snowstorms up there. HA!

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 23, 2008 9:35 AM | Report abuse

To my understanding, a SLCB issued gives me the hint that our chances for snow increased just enough from yesterday to warrent the future ball of hope..) All in all the probabilities are still low, still there is at least the possibility of potential development.

Posted by: ChrisfromVA | January 23, 2008 9:42 AM | Report abuse

Virginia is just a God awful place to live. ~No Winter EVER~

Posted by: Period | January 23, 2008 10:35 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover, you will be interested in reading my post under "Forecast Predicts Active Weather Pattern" below.

In sum, if we had the snowfall conditions typical of my native West-Central Wisconsin, we would probably have the same VERY LOW number of Federal shutdowns. Back home in the Upper Midwest the folks KNOW how to commute in the snow, and it takes a minimum of EIGHT inches to even CONSIDER closing schools or dismissing early! Up there it is the MILD snow-free winters which city folks look forward to and not the normal snowy ones. (The farmers up there don't care for the mild dry winters since normal snowpack is a major factor in the success of next summer's corn and soybean crops.) Even relatively "mild" Madison is locked in winter this time of year. I bet the iceboats are sitting on Lake Mendota as I write this.

Posted by: El Bombo | January 23, 2008 10:44 AM | Report abuse

ChrisFromVa, you are correct. The Snow Lover's Crystal Ball only appears when the chance is over 30% of accumulating snow. The fact that we were not mentioning it until just now is the proof that the chance of "accumulating snow" (no matter how minor it is) is increasing

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | January 23, 2008 11:17 AM | Report abuse

Sorry about the grumpy comment this am. Hadn't had my coffee yet.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 23, 2008 1:32 PM | Report abuse

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