Actually, Sterling is saying that NAM is "hinting" (???) at a "coastal" development ahead of Thursday's Arctic front. Unfortunately, NAM at this moment seems to be the "outlier" among models.

give me more wintry mix---I want more days at home reading and no more fluorescent lighting oppression
http://tshirtinsurgency.com/wintry-mix

El Bombo, several models hint at some sort of low pressure redevelopment off the coast on Thursday. For now, I would not get my hopes up too much as those types of situations often happen in a way that does not quite get us with snow. Meanwhile, it's something to watch for sure.

Wow...when looking at the NAM Models, I noticed that, not only is there alot of moisture in place for the DC area, but also a coastal storm develops and brings more moisture back into our region...Plus since cold air will be in place, I expect snow ratios to be very high and stickage to be very easy! This artic front will be pass us well in advance of any moisture and is only due to strengthen as the storm starts...This storm could provide major snow fall for the DC area if the models were to stay the same as they are currently. Its funny how a clipper system (most commonly known as "no snow-makes") can sometimes develop into a possible snow-storm threat! This is something to definitly to watcn...what are your ideas/thinkings about this possible threat?

Here at L'Enfant we have the winter sun shower right now. Very cool. Don't often see those in January.

By any chance do you know what the accumulations will be Thursday?

Doesn't most of the snow look like it will be off the coast and not necessarily near the DC metro area?

2 questions, will there be a snow lovers crystal ball for the thurs. event,and what are the max. accumulations for the thurs event?

yup, this image for 7pm on Thursday looks like potential fun: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/18/images/nam_pcp_054l.gif

Folks, you all know that I will hype a storm when it is justified by the models. My best advice for Thur., don't get too excited or you may be very disappointed.
I hope the NAM is correct, but it is the outlier. Does it know something that the GFS, UKMET, GGEM, NOGAPS and JMA does not??
Perhaps, but don't bet the bank on it. Thur. will probably be a transition day to a brief cold shot that may involve scatered snow showers, but nothing significant. I had hoped that the GFS would give support in the 18z run. That has not happened and in fact the NAM has backed off a little, unless you live on the eastern shore.

On my browser (newest Firefox), the articles/posts don't start until after the sidebars, so like 2 screen-lengths down the page. Can someone fix this?

So I guess we'll never get snow again?

Anyone know why GFS is down on the NCEP site?

I have to decide within the next few hours whether to take a flight out of National tomorrow morning or Thursday morning at 9am.
Does anyone have any guidance on the potential for delays on Thursday at 9AM???
Thanks!!!

00z NAM/GFS runs will show a better trend of whats going to happen Thursday?

Adam: You probably have ads blocked in Firefox. This messes up the display. Unblock the ads and the page will display normally.

Steve in SS: The probability for snow is low enough Thursday that I wouldn't be re-arranging plans.

In general, on the Thursday event, flurries/light snow seem most likely with little accumulation. Small likelihood it's something more (less than 30%). We'll keep you posted

Take the flight. Thursday's Weather will not effect us that early...If we get it at all?...If weather looks to drastically change, you may want to change flight times. I will bet you will not have delays or postponements, especially in the morning hours.

Steve in Silver Spring:

From my understanding of the timing, I *think* you will be fine if you are leaving at 9am. The afternoon could be dicey, with at least some snow showers a good bet, but the morning I think looks ok. I could be wrong about that though.. so I'd prefer a member of the team chime in! :)

ha jma..whens the last time that model been correct with a storm since feb '06

What's the max potential snowfall for the storm on Thursday?

Snowlover,

We will be extremely lucky if we get an inch.

I hope it's not another dud

Thanks so much everyone!

Okay I'm hearing and receiving from Jason to not get my hopes up for Thursday. So then when might be the next "possible" (I use the term loosely) snow after Thursday?

Missy:
The next 10-20 days look to be unsettled with above normal precip. The temps. during this time are very uncertain due to model disagreement. You can look forward with much anticipation!!!!!

when we got our snow in December, am I remembering correctly that was a clipper too, but just one that was a little more vigorous than usual? not trying to draw comparisons to Thursday's event, as I trust in CWG, just looking for a refresher.

its really hard to tell at this point what will come from thursday event. NAM is the outlier at this point showing a somewhat significant event for the area particularly further you get to the coast. At this point i cannot trust any of the models as they havent performed well at all this year. We will just have to wait and remain patiently optimistic.

My understanding is the models really never perform that well. They just a provide a baseline in which to draw from.

Thanks Jim! Hope renewed :)

jeffc, You are right, the Dec 5 storm was also a clipper. The origins of that system and the one modeled on Thursday are similar, the tracks and intensities are not. The Dec 5 storm passed off to our south as a fairly strong clipper, so we were in the cold part of the storm throughout and ended up with decent precipitation amounts. The upcoming one is modeled to pass to our north as a weak area of low pressure while possibly spawning a coastal low nearby. If there is no coastal we will probably see little more than passing snow showers and flurries from the clipper.

Does anyone know why GFS models are delayed on NCEP? 2nd request.

ChristomVa: Not sure what the problem is

I know this is way off in the future, in weather terms, but I also know that part of meteorology is to take a look at long-range trends. Does anyone at Capwx have anything to say about the period of the last week of February through the first week of March?

I'm planning on making a trip back to DC, and was wondering if you guys have a guess at what type of pattern the Mid Atlantic could be under during that time. Thanks!