Either feast or famine -- we're either too far S & E to be able to get the best effects of a winter storm, or in tomorrow's case, too far N & W. I'm just giving up on any appreciable snow for the rest of the winter. (Grateful for yesterday, though...)

The "snowpack" (always funny to use that term in this region) has taken a *serious* beating down here today. High temps were forecasted to be in the upper 30s to near 40 - instead, we reached 45 early in the day and have been there for hours. Combine that with the bright sun and the breeze, and well over 50% of the snow pack is melted. Roads are clear (which is good), and grass is now showing around buildings and along roadsides (which is bad). I'm really hoping the snow can hold on until the temps fall after dark. If 2" or so can survive today, it'll probably last through MLK day in some form, especially if it is refreshed on Saturday (many outlets are forecasting 1-3" for this area Saturday).

I plan on driving down to Norfolk tomorrow to visit a friend. What's my best bet, leave earlier in the morning?

Scott, I just looked at the NWS forecast for the Norfolk area b/c my sister is driving up here. It looks like it will begin as rain changing to snow later in the day/overnight. If you leave early you should be OK.

Thanks, Ana!

gggrrr.... i need more snow! i was counting on saturday...then the cold.

I'm also driving down to Norfolk (well actually Williamsburg) late tomorrow morning. Hoping for the best.

when do the next set of models come in? is anyone still holding out hope that tomorrow's storm will jog further north? or redevelop into a coastal storm?
or, are the odds of that happening slim to none?

Are the models ever way off on the track of a storm 24hrs out? I am hoping :)

i just noticed that montgomery, alabama is under a winter storm watch. they are expecting several inches of snow.

this storm really is tracking south.

What's amazing is how far south those cold temperatures are going.

I'm still holding out hope... maybe we'll get lucky on this one...

So...longer term. How're the temperatures looking for next week? And February?

How is Thursday's system shaping up? We NEED a snow day here in moco!!!!!!

Regarding the storm:

DC is awfully far north for this one.. it may take more than a "jog" to get much QPF up there. That said, I certainly wouldn't count out a few snow showers / squalls as a possibility. "North and West" has been the trend this year, even right before the event, so its highly possible the storm will be further N & W than currently progged. My area is really on the edge for this one. Earlier, it was 60% w/ 1-3" expected. Now its 40% with a half inch. I'm hoping for a jog to get that 1-3 back. We will see, time will tell. I need the snow, because my snowpack was decimated today. Crazy to go from 5" to 1" with lots of bare ground in one day, but that's what happened unfortunately.

Regarding the future (missy's question):

Next week looks like a gradual warming trend, with Monday still very cold. Tuesday and Wednesday are back to the 40s. Thursday into the weekend may see another blast of colder temperatures.

February has been progged by many forecasters to be very warm - potentially a "torch." Most seasonal forecasters feel it will be the warmest month of the winter, relative to average. Some have even gone so far as to suggest the cherry blossoms may come out - only to be killed when the NAO tanks and winter returns in March.

Isn't the actual precip falling in Ark. urther N and W than the models predicted? Can we extrapolate that out to the storm coming further N & W when it gets toward the coast, possibly giving DC some snow?

What happen to those storms of the 80s where we would have several storms in the 6-8" range each winter where precip type was not an issue? And don't tell me GLOBAL WARMING because I am not buying it!

Snowlover,

I support our president, but he is the reason. It's the "Bush Bubble." Think about our lack of winters since the year 2000. (except 2003)

It is amazing how helpless some people are. They actually have to come to weather site to ask other people what the forecast is going to be in another city.

There is one thing about the switch to the Post - People like NTOMB come over and act like jerks and insult people. The joy of this site NTOMB is for people to get excited and ask weather advice, talk about the weather, etc. The move to the Post has obviously found individuals who feel it is there lot in life to insult others while they hide behind the safety of their computer screen.

---Cap Weather Gang: my apologies but; after two weeks since this move, some individuals need to be told like it is. Some of the innocence of the original site has been lost.

Er, isn't the point of weather sites like this to talk about weather forecasts. And it's not like we are talking about the weather in Paris...

Figures I am heading to Mongomery on Monday for work. LOL.

Looking at the map on TWC, it seems our bubble of snow interference is back and settled right over us. Booooo.

And I had my 2-cents this morning on the folks who obviously never learned the "If you don't have anything nice to say..." addage.

Greg: NTOMB was on the old site as well. Just ignore the trolls.

jtf -- GREAT advice.

Here is a link to some photos I took of the snow down here. The ones with overcast sky were Thursday morning, during the middle of the storm. The ones at night are Thursday night. The ones with clear sky are this morning. Unfortunately a lot of melting has occurred since then =(

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jahutch/sets/72157603746157974

Nice Pictures Jim. I attempted to get a really great pic of the snow driving down route 3 near Culpeper, but ended sliding off road and broke through a fence. when this guy lost control in front of me..I was in four wheel drive. Im buying a new SUV tomorrow...JK...new tires maybe.

I've been chekcing the radar on the approaching "southern" storm. The radar is beginning to look really impresive covering much of the southern most states. It actually looks similar to Thursdays storm....hmm.

GFP. I agree with your post. Sorry to not mention it in my last post. Radar imagery tomorrow will be interesting to see. This storm can still shift back west.probobilities are low but itt all depends on the approaching cold front and timming of its arrival. Models look like the cold front is whats going to push the storm out to sea. However, if this storm gets bigger as it appears now. We still may get some snow. Or the the colf front slows down, it may allow the storm to take more of a westerly track

StormChaser:

Thanks :). And be careful man, a pic isn't worth going off the road for! I wish the pics I had were a bit more picturesque, there are some gorgeous areas around here to photograph, but needless to say my options were limited with the storm occurring during the work week. I was hoping to get some good pics this weekend, but most of the snow melted. Here's hoping to some "refreshment" Saturday so I can go get some good pics on Sunday.

Well, I really don't know what to think. The instinctive radar-watcher within me says, "Whoa! Look how big that storm is! And it's heading RIGHT FOR US!" The seasoned model-watcher within me says, "The NAM is right. This is going to be another snow bust."

Maybe I'll wake up in the morning to find the model-watcher and radar-watcher saying the same thing: snow. For now, I can only hope.

Yeah, I think the best advice is to just ignore and to continue on... those folks will just get tired and go away.

So strange to see snow to our south but I am sure that they need the precip!

Man it seems like the northern edge of this storm is headed right for us! Is this thing supposed to hit the jet stream and take a sharp right turn over NC? Any update?