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Posted at 5:00 AM ET, 01/27/2008

Forecast: Cold Regime Fading

By Jason Samenow

After a brief taste of cold weather in the past week, warmer than normal weather is poised to return. Today will be seasonably chilly, but milder weather kicks in to start the work week.

TODAY

Becoming mostly sunny. 40-45. Considerable cloud cover in the morning will drift away by afternoon. While it will remain brisk, the afternoon sunshine will take a bit of the edge off the cool air temperatures. Clear and cold overnight, with lows from the low 20s in the north and west suburbs to the upper 20s downtown.

Keep reading for a look ahead to the forecast for early next week...

MONDAY

Mostly sunny. Near 50. As the jet stream jogs to our north, a relatively mild airmass will move into the region. After a crisp start in the 20s, temperatures will climb 20-25 degrees towards 50. Overnight, temperatures lose about two-thirds of their daytime gains, falling to the mid 30s downtown and near 30 in the colder suburbs.

A LOOK AHEAD

Mild conditions continue on Tuesday, but it will cloud over and some showers are possible in the afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front passing through overnight. Highs should be in the low 50s. Clearing and windy on Wednesday, with high temperatures near 50. Clouds increase Thursday, with rain developing by evening and temperatures in the 40s. This rain should end sometime during the day Friday, with temperatures near 40.

By Jason Samenow  | January 27, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Comments

Good Sunday Morning:
Thankfully, the models have a wetter look for the next 10 days than the past 10.

Tue night rain could end as snow for western sections.

Late week system may feature some freezing rain for western sections Thur. night, but rain for most.

First chance of significant snow in "Dreamland" may not be until approaching the 10th of Feb.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 27, 2008 7:41 AM | Report abuse

A few snow flurries are falling with 27 degrees at 8:15.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 27, 2008 8:15 AM | Report abuse

26 and snow flurries here also Jim....this plume just kinda "appeared" didn't it!

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 27, 2008 8:16 AM | Report abuse

Are those radar echos real? Is any of that reaching th ground? It's like it popped out fo nowhere?

Posted by: Snowlover | January 27, 2008 8:21 AM | Report abuse

Yes Snowlover, they are reaching the ground as you can tell by me and Jims post, nothing to get excited about as it is REAL light...if you look at LWX radar, you can actually see when they turned up (right term?) the resolution.

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 27, 2008 8:26 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Mike! Can you tell which way that swath of precip is headed? Do you expect it to dissipate fairly quickly?

Posted by: Snowlover | January 27, 2008 8:30 AM | Report abuse

Hhmm....actually I got a rather nice little dusting event going on, can see the radar here:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=LWX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Looks to be heading SE, but appears to be breaking up quiet a bit

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 27, 2008 9:25 AM | Report abuse

I know I am dreaming here, but how much snow are we talking if the Feb 10th actually happens?

Posted by: Snowlover | January 27, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Snowlover:
The latest 12z GFS just in now gives us two shots in "Dreamland". 2-4 inches on Feb. 6-7 and 5-10 inches on Feb. 11-12,depending on water to snow ratio, but this may only be signaling a pattern change. the details will change many times and a pattern change may or may not occur.

During the next week to 10 days the longwave pattern will tend to guide storms through the Ohio Valley.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 27, 2008 12:04 PM | Report abuse

Re: the long-range models

Most all of these long-range model runs (7+ days out) predicting winter weather have been dead wrong.

Is there a bias in these models? Are the inputs not factoring in current conditions?

Just curious...

Posted by: Ivan | January 27, 2008 3:17 PM | Report abuse

The long range models are always, and will always be wrong. If we ever get a decent snowfall here again, it'll be something that we were definitely not expecting. a la december 5th

Posted by: Period | January 27, 2008 8:32 PM | Report abuse

Thoughts:

1) We will see a nice snow storm I predict the 3rd week of Feb.

2) We will see another snow event the 2nd week of March.

3) We will see a massive warm-up in March (circa 1990) followed up by a massive blast of cold air with three inches of snow in late March (around the 20th).

4) This summer it is going to be hot as heck (circa 1988) and we will have a tropical system ride up the Chesapeake Bay in August.

If all of these come true....call me Father Nature!

Posted by: Greg | January 27, 2008 9:01 PM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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