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Posted at 11:11 PM ET, 01/16/2008

Forecast: How Much Snow?

By Jason Samenow

Winter Weather Advisory in Effect

jan17-08-accum1.gif
Snow accumulation potential, January 17.

Before you head to bed, here is our first crack at forecasting accumulations. We think 1-3" will generally fall in the metro area, but closer to 1" downtown and mainly on grassy surfaces. In the colder suburbs, north and west of town, 2-4" may fall, with 3-6" possible in Frederick and western Loudoun County. The snow will likely change to a wintry mix in the late afternoon in the metro area and early evening in the north and west suburbs. The onset time of the snow is tricky, but likely between 6am and 9am to the southwest, 8am - 11am in the metro area and 9am and noon north and east of town. Temperature will mainly be between 30 and 35 degrees.

Tomorrow morning first thing, we'll have a lot more detail including a storm timeline, frequently asked questions, SchoolCast and more. Do your homework tonight.

By Jason Samenow  | January 16, 2008; 11:11 PM ET
Categories:  Forecasts  
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Next: The Return of Snow

Comments

Crofton wants snow.

Posted by: CJ | January 16, 2008 11:13 PM | Report abuse

Hoping for an early dismissal tomorrow. That would be pretty sweet.

Posted by: Ken | January 16, 2008 11:21 PM | Report abuse

Wow! Where did "little or no accumulation" go? That's right--it went south.

A silver medal for me! congrats to CJ for grabbing the gold.

Posted by: mcleaNed | January 16, 2008 11:21 PM | Report abuse

~sg - not in Riyadh yet, but you're right...I'm starting to track that weather too.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 11:24 PM | Report abuse

Don't worry fellow South-and-Easters, we'll get to rub it in the face of the North-and-Westers again some day when a coast hugging storm leaves them in the dust(ing)!

Might be a while though. :(

Posted by: jtf | January 16, 2008 11:25 PM | Report abuse

First speck of precip appears about 100 mi SE of Washington. Also, looking at current IAD weather, it looks as though the winds are now starting up from the south, albeit 3mph.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 11:31 PM | Report abuse

Make that SW of DC. I was looking at it in the mirror.

Posted by: Kalorama Park | January 16, 2008 11:32 PM | Report abuse

Things looking good down here. Most outlets suggesting something in the 3-5" range as far as snow, with isolated amounts 6" plus. Seems like we will stay snow for quite a while at my elevation - likely a mostly snow event with a bit of crust on top. Sounds like a winter storm warning may go into effect tomorrow morning, unless things start looking bad (advisory criteria here is 4" plus I think).

Posted by: Jim in Blacksburg | January 16, 2008 11:41 PM | Report abuse

Sorry, Ned. You only got the bronze. :P
This storm is turning out better than expected! Hopefully it will live up to the new expectations...

Posted by: topspinserve | January 16, 2008 11:51 PM | Report abuse

Ive seen alot in the east coast weather Forums talking about this weekend and what could happen seems to be a really good chance of snow and not a mix any thoughts on that?

Posted by: Jonathan | January 17, 2008 12:51 AM | Report abuse

This radar imagery is very impressive covering much of the souther states now. I live in Spotsylvania,VA where we are under a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches. ONLY 30 minutes west in Culpeper.They have a winter storm warning issued according to wunderground calling for 4-8, possibly more. I have a feeling this storm is still underestimated in regards to intensity and precipitation. Whats the kicker is gonna be are the temps.

Historically, have we ever seen a major snowstorms from an event similar to this current storm shaping up?

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 12:51 AM | Report abuse

Johnathan,

There have been numerous storms where we have seen all snow when they were just calling for a mix. It all depends on the temps. Down in Spotsy, it is pretty cold. The skies are still relatively clear, which I hope will allow for more radiational cooling before the clouds begin to thicken overnight. This storm is either going to be a big letdown or a huge suprise. I dont think there will be a whole lot of middle ground. Keep your fringers crossed.

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 12:56 AM | Report abuse

Does anyone know if radiational cooling can help increase our chances for snow tomorrow? It is still clear outside here now besides some high cirrus clouds moving in in Spotsy. Thanks

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 1:07 AM | Report abuse

This storm for the next 24hrs is one that all we can really do now is watch...my temperature has been going up the past 2hrs and I am now sitting at 32.7F, this temperature. This temp will probably go down a bit, especially when the initial precipitation starts.
As far as this storm for Saturday goes, I think we are looking good right now. Models had been pushing this storm out to see the past couple days, and within the last couple runs they have slowly kept the storm closer to shore, giving us more snow. If the next couple models runs continue to put this storm a little farther west(but not to west) we could be looking at a very decent storm. Just a wait and see game, as all weather really is. It just smells like snow outside...

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 17, 2008 1:13 AM | Report abuse

Top of the morning Still up...light snow bands are moving north of Richmond now.

Posted by: skinsfn | January 17, 2008 4:02 AM | Report abuse

The nice thing about procrastinating on homework is that you get a rare late night opportunity to watch the storm progress. Looks like the first splotches of snow/virga are coming over the DC area.

Posted by: mcleaNed | January 17, 2008 4:27 AM | Report abuse

New post up*

Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 17, 2008 5:29 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

 
 
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