Forecast: Wind Wanes, Cold Continues
Light mix possible tomorrow
Yesterday's bitter winds will take a breather, but cold conditions will hang on for at least another day. Temperatures will moderate somewhat tomorrow -- enough so that rain is more likely than snow as a cold front triggers another round of precipitation. Cold and mostly dry conditions return Wednesday through Friday.
TODAY
Sunny, calm and cold. 30-35. Be ready for numbing single digits and low teens if you're headed out early. By noon though, temperatures will have risen through the 20s with the sun shining brightly. Most locations should reach freezing in the afternoon and, with little wind to speak of, it will feel significantly warmer than yesterday. Overnight, some high clouds will increase after midnight. It will remain quite cold, with lows in the mid teens in the colder suburbs to the low 20s downtown.
TUESDAY
Light snow changing to light rain. 35-40. An approaching cold front is likely to produce a round of precipitation during the day. Enough cold air should linger in the morning for the precipitation to start as some light snow if it arrives in time. By afternoon, any snow should change over to rain as southerly winds ahead of the front boost temperatures above freezing. Overnight, the front will clear and the rain will end. It will turn windy, with lows in the mid 20s.
Keep reading for a look ahead to the forecast for the rest of the work week...
WEDNESDAY
Mostly sunny and brisk. Mid 30s. A reinforcing shot of cold air will stream into the metro area. A bit of a breeze will return and it will another bundle-up kind of day, with wind chills in the 20s. Overnight, a weak weather disturbance will approach the region with increasing clouds and the chance of a flurry or two towards morning. Lows will range from 20-25.
The moon rising over the trees Sunday evening in Stafford, Va. Contributed by visitor David Abbou.
A LOOK AHEAD
After some morning flurries, clouds will likely decrease on Thursday, with highs in the mid 30s.
Temperatures approach 40 Friday, under sunny skies.
Milder conditions return for the weekend, with temperatures in the 40s. Saturday should be dry during the day, with rain possible at night and continuing into Sunday.
By Jason Samenow |
January 21, 2008; 5:00 AM ET
Forecasts
Previous: Just How Cold? Take a Guess... |
Next: For the Love of Snow
Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 21, 2008 7:13 AM
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9.3 in NW Montgomery.
Posted by: JT | January 21, 2008 7:29 AM
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Eight degrees in Stafford this morning. Two months until the vernal equinox cannot come soon enough!!
Posted by: David A | January 21, 2008 8:04 AM
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Really thought I'd see single digits....but the light wind only allowed a low of 10...after an "afternoon high" of 18...official high was 27 at 1201am....
Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 21, 2008 8:37 AM
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I love this blog. Thanks to the weather people who are posting!
Posted by: Greg | January 21, 2008 8:40 AM
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Well, in Lake Ridge, this morning it reached 10 and it's 18 right now. I have one thermometer in the sun that says "27.9" and the one in the shade reads "18.6". One of the (rare) times it gets cold this winter and no accumulating snow anywhere in the forecast. :( At least we have exams all week so we get out early 3 days in a row.
Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 21, 2008 9:32 AM
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Put your thermometer on the north side of the house Weatherdude. Putting it where it catches the sun anytime of day is not going to give you accurate readings.
Posted by: NTOMB | January 21, 2008 9:47 AM
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About global cooling:
Within the academic literature (which undergoes peer-review), there were only two publications discussing global cooling in the 1970s, compared with over two dozen publications concerning global warming.
There wasn't anything close to a consensus in the scientific community regarding global cooling in the 1970s. If you were being taught about global cooling, then you were being taught by instructors who were poorly informed. It's that simple.
If you would like more information, see our trusty friend Google:
http://www.google.com/search?q=global+cooling+myth
Posted by: jtf | January 21, 2008 10:30 AM
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Only reached 14.0 at the house this morning. I'm surprised -- it was around 20 at sunset yesterday. With clear sky, little wind, and a little snow cover, I thought single digits were easily within reach as well.
Posted by: Jamie Y (Potomac) | January 21, 2008 10:38 AM
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23 degrees at noon. Feels like a heatwave, as yesterday at noon it was only 16.
Perhaps 50's early next week !
Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 21, 2008 12:10 PM
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I might be reading the models completely wrong, but--according to the 12Z GFS and NAM--it looks like we'll stay below freezing for the duration of this upcoming storm. Both models are setting up the rain/snow line just south and east of DC.
Posted by: mcleaNed | January 21, 2008 12:15 PM
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Ned..The temperature at 850mb stays at or below freezing, but the boundary layers warm up...It depends how long cold air can stay at the surface....
Posted by: Matt Ross, Capital Weather Gang | January 21, 2008 12:49 PM
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Taking into consideration the pressure of 30.83, no way this cold air gets dislodged tomorrow until possibly late in the day. This is a classic set up for a cold air damming ice storm.
Posted by: Flakey in NW | January 21, 2008 12:52 PM
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Matt: is there a weather model out there that predicts surface temperatures? It seems like they all deal with upper-level temps only.
Posted by: mcleaNed | January 21, 2008 1:00 PM
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Ned,
Go here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/
Then click: Model Analyses & Forecasts
Then click on GFS (appr time) then click 4 panel charts....bottom right one gives 2M Temps. 850 temps are=6,000 feet(approx) 2M=surface.
Meteo sounds easy huh? LOL....obviously ALOT more to it then that. The TEAM interprets the raw data.....which is why they are pro's and I'm an amateur :)
Posted by: Mike from the Blue Ridge | January 21, 2008 1:11 PM
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Which GFS time records are more accurate with the data it gathers. I know most long term models are constantly changing. I'm speaking in term of 00z,06z,12z,18z., times of the day?
Thanks
Posted by: StormChsser | January 21, 2008 1:21 PM
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jtf,
Thanx for the link to the AMS cooling myth study. We may have more to say on the subject in the near future.
Posted by: Steve, Capital Weather Gang | January 21, 2008 1:41 PM
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LWX to issue advisories...
...WOULD PUT THE PROB OF FREEZING RAIN AT 50
PERCENT...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. SOME OF THE SREF MEMBERS WERE
QUITE HIGH WITH QPF AMOUNTS...BUT...THIS EVENT APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW
QPF EVENT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF
FREEZING RAIN. IN FACT THE TOTAL QPF COULD BE LESS THAN 0.10
INCHES. NAM IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH EVENT BUT THE GFS IS FASTER
AND WETTER AND PREFERRED. GIVEN THAT PRECIP ARRIVES IN OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND 8 AM...MORNING RUSH HR...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE
PRUDENT TO ISSUE A WINTER WX ADV. WINTER WX ADV WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR 8AM THROUGH 4 PM.
NORTHERN ZONES WILL START AT 10 AM THROUGH 4 PM.
Posted by: PC | January 21, 2008 2:56 PM
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Ned,
In addition to Mike's link, you might try this one: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/.
Click on GFS and in the panel on the left side scroll down until you get to the category "Sfc T". Pick the approriate time period and you will get a temperature graphic.
Hope this helps.
Posted by: PJ | January 21, 2008 3:41 PM
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The comments to this entry are closed.
My overnight temps. were modified by a persistent westerly breesze 4-8 mph., 10 degrees at 7 am . Another report of 1 above zero 2 miles away where calm.
We may receive a light mix tomorrow, but no big deal, followed by another cold blast.
Storm threat next weekend (1-26-29) is looking warmer at this point in time. 50 degrees and rain is possible during the middle of the event.
End of month into Feb. looks a little colder than normal and unsettled.