WHAT a shock -- our cold air DEPARTS for the upcoming storm, ONLY to RETURN just AFTER the precipitation is gone! Welcome to Winter 2008, Washingtonians...par usual for us.

Back to the old drum beat.....

RAIN!

My mother in-law arrives on Friday from Duluth MN...I told her to pack for spring weather. Really...because our highs in the 30s are just that to her - April. Duluthians laugh at our fixation on snow and cold. I think they have had over 40 inches of snow so far this year. The high on Friday when she leaves will be about 5. And thats pretty good for the dead of January. Meanwhile, its 33.7 out in LoCo and not a drop has fallen. Our winter weather compared with thiers is like us asking every girl we know to the prom and getting a "Maybe" each time...and them running an adult industry convention in Vega$. Duluth scores EVERY time when it comes to winter. I think that's why my wife thinks I'm so wacky from Dec to March around here. She once had a Halloween (1990 I think) with 4 feet of snow on the ground; they dug tunnels to up the walkways to each house to get their candy.

Baby ARC is now three weeks old and still hasnt seen her first snowflake. So sad!

Baghdad has gotten more snow than we have this year. BAH!

Cold might depart right before the wet stuff? NO!!!!!! SAY IT ISN'T SO!!!!!!! Sigh- frustrating. Well, I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

Actually -- NYC got a dose of OUR medicine last night and this morning. I read the dire "Winter Storm Warning!" and "Heavy Snow Warning!" banners on their NWS site yesterday morning, forecasting up to 8-10 inches of snow. Fast forward to this morning to find that the NYC metro area received mostly RAIN overnight, and the areas that did receive snow got only up to about 2-3 sloppy inches. I say we throw out ALL of the weather models and forecast winter storm severity solely on the amount of pain folks feel in their joints prior to the event...

Actually...a bit of a pain this morning. I had a surface temp of 33-34 or so at 530 am...had my coffee and bagel...and went out to the car and eckk! I guess we had a few hundredths overnight and had been at or below 32 for a little while because I had about a tenth of an inch of ice on the car. I wasnt planning on a real "scrape event" but that's what I had at about 615am out in LoCo...and sure enough, there is a SWS for LoCo posted at 6:14am on at NWS stating that we could see a bit of ice.

No ice this morning in FFX but it just felt raw for the first time for me at least this winter.

Yeah this weekend's storm was a total bust. To think a week ago, *I* was in the game down here in the southern apps is quite amazing. Go to the nowcast, and even Boston is missing this things best dynamics. Its not going to really crank until the Gulf of Maine and it'll then pound New England. I think places like Manchester, NH, Concord, NH, Portlant, ME, and Bangor, ME all have the potential for 8-15" of snow. Interior Mass. should do well also, but I think Boston sees well under 6".

As if New England getting snow surprises anyone :).

I am in the Hartford, CT area this morning and I wish I could send you all in Washington some of the beautiful weather we are experiencing. There are about 6-8 inches on the ground and it is still snowing like crazy! It is a sticky snow, so all of the branches are draped in white. Too beautiful. I think I might fill my suitcase with snow and bring it back home to Annapolis. I am definitely moving north when I retire.

I heard on TOP this morning that Boston closed schools LAST NIGHT as a precaution. Doesn't sound like the New England I grew up in - although we got our share of days off. Now my Dad - he had to walk uphill both ways no matter how much snow they got in NH. :)

wow a few snow showers passed trough here about 830 nice and frosty here to 29f

For the sake of Baby ARC and Walter WE NEED SNOW!!

NWS issued a Heavy Snow Warning at 8:40 am for Highland Co. northeast to Garrett Co. 5-10 inches expected by Tue. eve with up to a foot in favored areas. Looks like Snowshoe will add to the 50 inches they have received to date.

Re. Thur. event. I have looked at 7 models this morning. 4 out of 7 give the area west of the Blue Ridge a significant winter storm. 3 of the 7 have questions about temp. profiles or track. Still looks like very marginal conditions east of the mts. with many areas receiving mostly a cold rain. Another system a week from tomorrow looks to be colder with potential for more widespread snow, but this is still over a week away, therefore low confidence.

Augusta Jim:

That's the problem I am seeing this winter. Most of these storms look good a week out, then get worse and worse and worse, until they become rain events by the time the storm arrives. Such is par for the course in Ninas.

I'm *hoping* my elevation and westwardness saves me and I get something with the Thursday event, but I'm not betting on it. Right now, I think we are on track for a snow futility record down here (would have to do some more research to know for sure).

etta, thanks for remembering me... it has been a depressing winter, snow-wise, that's for sure. i'm holding out hope for the storm coming a week from tomorrow that "augusta jim" is teasing me with. just read today's paper about the east antarctic ice melting - the long, long range forcast doesn't look good either...

Jim from Blacksburg:
I understand your feelings, they are quite similar to mine.

I can say that my gut tells me that many of us west of the B.R. are finally going to receive at least one inch of snow, or mix on Thur. "Off the cuff", I can not ever remember going this far into the winter previously with hardly any measurable snow. Most systems affecting my area are so moisture starved this winter, precip type is of little consequence.

The one most important factor for Thursday. We will finally have a system from the Gulf of Mexico therefore moisture level should be better. If temp. profiles support mostly snow, we could be looking at 4-8 inches. We can only keep our fingers crossed!!

Because I'm in the telecom regulatory arena, I came across the following press release from the World Meteorological Organziation concerning a new global satellite strategy to monitor climate change. Thought it might be of some interest. http://www.wmo.ch/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_806_en.html

Oh yea...it snowed in boston...

again...

.

Beautiful picture Kevin.

My thoughts on the accuracy of the long-range models this season.....

Is it possible that these long range models (i.e. a week in advance) are not getting the proper inputs given our current Nina?

In other words, are the models making assumptions based on a typical winter and not factoring in the Nina aspect?