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Posted at 10:00 AM ET, 01/18/2008

Weekend Storm Trending Away

By Dan Stillman

Still bears watching

Next Chance of Accumulating Snow: Saturday PM - Sunday AM
Probability: 35%
Potential Impact:

The good news is you may not need that shovel again this weekend. That's not-so-good news for those craving more of the white stuff.

During the day Saturday, low pressure pulling out of the Gulf of Mexico is expected to reform off the North Carolina-South Carolina coast. The question is what direction it goes from there. Does it head northeast out to sea and keep most of its assoicated precipitation offshore? Or does it curl more to the north and give our area its second winter storm in less than three days?

The latter is looking less likely now, as the storm has trended east in recent model runs. Which means the chances of little or no snow are on the way up, and the chances of a weekend sequel to yesterday's snow is on the way down.

One thing is for sure -- if it took the right track, there would be colder air available for this storm to pull into the region than during the last storm. If you want proof of cold air being close by, all you have to know is that high temperatures on Sunday -- with plenty of sunshine -- may not make it out of the 20s.

With that kind of cold air lurking, we'll need to monitor the models today and early tomorrow for any changes to the current eastward trend.

See Camden's post for the full forecast through the holiday weekend.

By Dan Stillman  | January 18, 2008; 10:00 AM ET
Categories:  Winter Storms  
Save & Share:  Send E-mail   Facebook   Twitter   Digg   Yahoo Buzz   StumbleUpon   Technorati   Google Buzz   Previous: Forecast: Snow Melts then Maybe More
Next: The Cause of Big Flakes



Posted by: Anonymous | January 18, 2008 10:02 AM | Report abuse

"first" people are so lame...get a life

Posted by: From Second | January 18, 2008 10:06 AM | Report abuse

Well, the idea of having snow during the winter was fun while it lasted. Hopefully there are more storms out there yet to form that are just itching to hit us.

Posted by: weatherdudeVA | January 18, 2008 10:12 AM | Report abuse

2nd, go to another blog if you don't like it.

What are the chances that this storm could hit the northeast if it misses us?

Posted by: Uncle Dak | January 18, 2008 10:17 AM | Report abuse

12z NAM coming in even more suppressed for tomorrow. Points south and east of D.C. could still receive a little snow, but most of us will remain high and dry (according to this model run)

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Report abuse

Next week looks like an active weather pattern. any chance we could get somethign out of that?

Posted by: Mike, Ashburn | January 18, 2008 10:31 AM | Report abuse

Uncle Dak:
This storm should also miss New England (for the same reason it misses us)

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 18, 2008 10:33 AM | Report abuse


This is my life, don't make funny of it. I get all weepy.

Posted by: Bob | January 18, 2008 10:37 AM | Report abuse

12z American models continue the trend in the wrong direction for snow lovers. If they are right, we might not see anything other than some clouds.

Posted by: Ian, Capital Weather Gang | January 18, 2008 10:49 AM | Report abuse

Mike :
We are under another threat at mid week, but too early to nail down. 12z GFS is suppressed a little to the south. The GFS is also giving us little more than flurries tomorrow. Hopefully this is not the beginning of a pattern.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 18, 2008 11:37 AM | Report abuse

Thanks Jim. Keeping my fingers crossed for next week as tomorrow not looking good, esp for me being so far west of DC. Us snow lovers are never satisfied!!

Posted by: Mike, Ashburn | January 18, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

OK, if Boston gets ONE MORE cool storm, I'm moving there. They've had the best winter! NOT FAIR! Jeez, can't I get ONE storm like the one we got Presidents' Weekend 2003??

Posted by: sigmagrrl | January 18, 2008 11:40 AM | Report abuse

Yeah, second, go on with yourself.

Posted by: missy | January 18, 2008 11:44 AM | Report abuse

My gut is telling me that our better chances will come next week. Just looking at the precip over Texas, it doesn't appear to be taking aim at us. The front moving in from the west could squeeze out some light snow though, but I suspect that'll be it for this round. I'm looking forward to the middle of next week.

Posted by: Alex | January 18, 2008 11:46 AM | Report abuse

This storm is definitely fading can always hold out hope though. Just to remind everyone of(though I know some of you already thought about it)January 25, 2000. A storm that was supposed to scoot off the coast and give us nothing, and at the last minute changed paths, and we wound up with 10-18" of can only hope.

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 18, 2008 12:07 PM | Report abuse

One item of interest. The models are not handling the precip. over Texas well at all. QP returns are already farther north and east than projected at 1 pm. This is something that bears watching.

Posted by: Augusta Jim | January 18, 2008 12:08 PM | Report abuse

Remind me where to find models? NOAA site?

Posted by: missy | January 18, 2008 12:10 PM | Report abuse

Posted by: arnoldkh | January 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Report abuse

With Respect to our first, seconders, and other commenters: Please be courteous of your fellow commenters and readers. Many come to the comments to get the latest information and discussion, and would prefer to not wade through a mountain of other information.

While we (Capital Weather Gang) currently have no position on these sort of posts, we do have a position on etiquette. We have developed a strong community over the past few years where discussions easily flow between the topics of the post to the weather topic of the day because we were welcoming to all discussions. Be considerate and mindful of your fellow commenters (no matter how much they think school shouldn't be closed ;) ). As always, if you have any questions, You know how to contact us.

Posted by: Jamie Jones, Capital Weather Gang | January 18, 2008 12:28 PM | Report abuse

Dear Snow Lovers:

I tried. I really did. This was the year I was going to embrace snow and winter weather. I was going to look forward to it, in the hopes that I would understand snow lovers.

I even enjoyed the clipper system we had in December. I told myself how gorgeous it all was, how fluffy and white. I even took my dog for a walk in it (he never liked snow that much either, but I thought he should try with me).

I really tried, I promise. But then January 17, 2008 happened. Oh sure, it started out nice. Big fluffy white flakes. All so lovely.

But then, as almost always happens in this area (seriously, I would bet 80 percent of all snow events), it turned to a mix. Then a mush. And then a mess.

And at the end of a long day of slogging through it, scrapping it off my walks, and generally dealing with it soaking me to the bone, I asked myself: what do snow lovers find so wonderful about all this? I couldn't answer that question.

So I'm going back to being a full-fledged winter hater and advocate for the endless summer of flip-flops, tans and short sleeves.

But just like snow lovers won't get enough of what they want in DC, I won't get enough of what I want in DC either. So maybe the snow lovers should head for New England, and I and those like me should head for Key West.

The question is, will anyone be left in DC?

Posted by: Southside FFX | January 18, 2008 1:57 PM | Report abuse

Counting 2day, 27 of last 30 days have been above average.

Posted by: VaTechBob. | January 18, 2008 3:04 PM | Report abuse

Jim, that's interesting. I still think, though, if you made me look at that map I'd give it no chance, not with a big front moving. Then again, I'm an amateur, so I'm basing it almost completely off of instincts and experience...not necessarily scientific reasoning. But hey, give me that front any day because we all know what's up for next week!

Posted by: Alex | January 18, 2008 4:21 PM | Report abuse

Where do I go to get realtime comments?

Posted by: pegasus9847 | January 19, 2008 4:50 AM | Report abuse

The comments to this entry are closed.

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